RE: Sp flying24 Mar 2025 09:46
Morning everyone! Great to see a positive RNS and whilst I am not surprised to see mention of Safety, I AM surprised that they are able to comment on efficiency so early and this is a HUGE vote of confidence in HG-CT-1.
Not returning to LSE, not looking for a debate but I will share my thoughts on what happens next:
1, Hemogenyx have used ALL their head room, that means they cannot do a placing for any doomsayers who predict one, they dont have head room for a placing and do not have head room for previous warrant holders to exercise their warrants. To do a placing would require a prospectus, this would require a vote ruling out traders who want to forward sell/short before agreeing.
2, Patient 2 manufacturing is underway, they have therefore passed the tests, it was announced last week they were starting so Lympho-depletion will likely start next week and infusion the week after? Dont expect an RNS on every stage, Vlad might but I dont expect him to keep this level of reporting.
3, The company now have results from a bone marrow draw, they have only one set of results but its enough to get started, the big question everyone has now is FUNDING. The following are options that DO work:
a, A grant - Have not heard any rumours this is going to happen any time soon, wont discount it.
b, Licencing Deal - If there is an offer to buy then he will sell if the number is good enough. I have not heard any rumours of a licencing deal but Vlad has said several times in interviews that the company are actively engaged with 2 big pharma so again, I wont say this is likely in the next few months but I wont discount it.
c, Venture Capital - This, for anyone not paying attention, is the most likely. According to Grok, Gemini, many many discussions with shareholders and others is the most likely scenario. Is it guaranteed? Nope. So how would it work? HG-CT-1 would be segregated into a subsidiary like Immugenyx LLC which is wholly owned by Hemogenyx. A Venture Capitalist under NDA would be free to review the results and agree to invest in ONLY HG-CT-1 by buying a percentage of that subsidiary, either in a lump sum or tranches. That percentage would not be affected by future dilution of Hemogenyx PLC and would reduce risk and exposure on behalf of the VC. We would lose a percentage of the CAR-T but become a CMO with funding now secured for the parent Hemogneyx for the foreseeable future. But even if we retained only 50% the VC would guarantee the trial is funded and that makes it 50% of 500m+ down the line vs going bankrupt.
The last funding round was an unmitigated disaster, it was shocking. Hemogenyx need MILLIONS to go forward, if that comes from dilution then its game over, the market will not absorb it, if Vlad secures a VC or licence? No more shares hitting the market, no more shorting, we can chill out and wait for the results.
Again I am not returning, the above is not a debate its my opinion, agree or disagree, buy sell or hold, it matters not