Member Info for JustHereForHemo

Looks like a mistake it was cancelled immediately.

HFH -> :-)
Barber, this is all new stuff, I am not saying its likely but alot of drugs fail at Phase 3, if Hemo has hit a decent valuation before it gets anywhere near there then you have to de-risk. Well I say that but it does depend I guess on what Vlad says, if he makes it abundantly clear he is not going to do Phase 3 and wants to sell/licence then might as well hold for that. Lets see what happens, not even remotely close to a level I think where anyone would consider slicing :P

Better to read what the experts say about valuations, there are multiple but this is one of the clearest examples I have found for valuation:
https://www.toptal.com/finance/valuation/biotech-valuation
Put simply there are many stages, Pre-Clinical -> Phase 1 -> Phase 2 -> Phase 3 -> NDA.
The chance of failure at any stages is quite high, but the highest failure is in Pre-Clinical when probably half of candidates will fail. So when people value biotech companies they have to offset the risk against the potential market. Therefore you need to know the target market, the competition, the potential value if the candidate is sold and the discount rate at each stage.
IND is that border between Pre-clinical and Phase 1, the discount at pre-clinical is massive, the discount at Phase 1 is massive, its not until phase 3 when you start to see real value. HOWEVER even the discounted rate at phase 1 is massively higher than todays mCap, here is another link: https://www.baybridgebio.com/drug_valuation.html
Value at start of program $0M
Probability of FDA approval: 4%
Value at start of Phase 1 $88M
Probability of FDA approval: 12%
Value at start of Phase 2 $248M
Probability of FDA approval: 20%
Value at start of Phase 3 $1,119M
Probability of FDA approval: 56%

In terms of IQAI I cant find anything in terms of market for them, from what I can see the IND was just for a different capsule? That is Vs Hemo which have a CAR-T candidate for oncology, where many of the existing treatments are ~$500k per patient the markets are not comparable.

I would also say because of the nature of CAR-T/CDX and the target they are treating they have stated they are probably doing Phase 1/2a as its not safe to administer either to healthy patients for a traditional Phase 1 trial. I dont know where that puts hemo in the graph but certainly a lot higher than 16mil.

Any sort of discussion or arguments about the share price or mCap today is pointless, its based on a pre clinical pharma that has been decimated by CLNs. Nobody in the pharma world is talking about hemo yet, nobody doing valuations yet, they are not clinical. Worrying about a 2%, 5%, 10%, 20% gain or fall here is pointless because none of the big players who matter have even bothered looking yet. When we go clinical we will see what people really thing about Hemo.

Clearly not Vlad and I 100% am not paid by anyone, I genuinely liked seeing intelligent posts for once instead of the usual crp I am used too, but based on your snappy attack back, please stay here!

Michaelhighbar and Sangijuelas1
I am not a share holder here and this is neither a ramp, de-ramp or cross ramp so please anyone reading dont get upset, I am purely talking to these 2 posters, I think DDDD looks like a very attractive and undervalued investment right now.
I saw the RNS and came for a look, there are cross overs between 4d and Hemogenyx where I am a shareholder but what struck me was on this board there is actual intelligent valuable constructive posts. I am jealous that we dont have people like yourselves that know what you are talking about over at Hemo. I am not saying sell here and buy hemo, the RNS today looks very positive and from what I see there is a distressed seller here which when gone will do wonders for the SP. It makes 4d more attractive to me so will consider investing here at some point if I can. However if either of you are looking for other investments as well please look at Hemo, posts like yours would be such a breath of fresh air!!

It would be foolish to rely on anything Vlad said 6 months ago to try and second guess when any clinical trials will start. He also said they would be asking for a meeting with the FDA early in the new year where in fact he actually asked the FDA over a month ago in December and the meeting could very well already have happened or if not it should be in the coming week or so. IMO the IND application is about ready to go and the Wu-Xi RNS was one of the final steps required, their commitment to accelerate is great to see. Someone on here said they had been in comms with Vlad a while ago and he was in Maryland doing a test run of the CAR-T I believe? It just does not feel like there is much standing between now and IND application, why would you be doing a test run if you still have any testing to do?
As for when the IND submission will actually be... None of us can say with any level of confidence. Thats what the pre-IND is all about. The FDA could say they are happy and go ahead and file, or they could ask for something additional, they could fast track or they could shut it down. Vlad didnt know 6 months ago what the FDA would say, if he did there would be little point in having a PIND. IND could be weeks, could be months, could be never, it all hangs on the FDA.

Incase there is anyone left who is not yet aware I am 100% in the full confidence bullish camp and even though already at 100% my confidence grows with every RNS. I think the FDA will be happy and Vlad will move swiftly to file IND application. Purely as a guess I think March for IND application and May/June for start of Phase 1/2a CAR-T trials with a CBR update before either happens.

#LetsGoHemo! #InVladWeTrust

Mr India, I think the issue many have with you is your basing pretty much your entire reaction on the SP. The fact is that some traders who like to play the swing on a tiny company and are able to pocket a few % here and there with relatively little capital. But as annoying as the SP is it has absolutely FA Squared to do with the company or whats happening behind the scenes.I am wasting time and space having a stupid back and forth with you about SP when its a complete waste of all our times. Either we go clinical and save some lives and Hemo is suddenly worth many multiples of today or the FDA slam the company and we are up the creek, or worse still we start clinical trials and vlad kills a few bods. I am not saying Hemo is a binary play, but what I am saying is worrying about a 1-2% swing in the SP when the mCap is 16mil is a complete and utter waste of time. If you want to carry on being worried about the SP and who is selling then work away, I am sure you will make the traders very happy. I am off swimming with the kids.

MrIndia do you think you will still be 50k down when they file IND? When they enter clinical trials? You clearly dont because your still here, they have not yet filed IND and are not yet clinical, anything that happens with the SP now has nothing to do with the science or CAR-T. Ignore the SP for now, we are not far from news (based on the FDA published guidelines for PreIND within 60 days) so really there is little point in worrying until news lands.
HereforHemo thats what I said, we are not "officially" IND stage, to the outside world we are Discovery/PreClinical HOWEVER those of us who follow the company know that in reality the pre clinical trials have been successfully completed. We are significantly de-risked in terms of moving into IND and Clinical trials. The next potential failure point realistically is Phase 1 trials.
Thats what makes Hemo a huge opportunity right now for those who can appreciate that whilst on paper we are not IND in reality we might as well be as the pre clinical testing is done, there is always a risk that the FDA will ask for additional tests, I dont think they will but they might.

Have to be honest dhub I am disappointed in the SP but not surprised given the trading behaviour of late, nor am I disheartened because despite the increased interest here on LSE there is little mention of Hemogenyx further afield (Google it, zero relevant hits). I found ~500 active CAR-T clinical trials going on world wide and below that thousands of new treatments in development not yet at that stage. If someone like Eli Lilly, Kite, Novartis or Celgene was taking HEMO-CAR-T forward it would be getting a lot of attention but Hemogenyx is not on any radar. Today it is a speculative investment deemed too high risk for many and due to the low mCap many funds cannot even consider making an investment here yet.
I would consider HEMO-CAR-T to be at IND stage however its not official yet, I dont view the Pre-IND meeting as a risk but more an opportunity for fast track and last minute check with the FDA. The figures differ significantly depending on field and source but a rough ball park on failure rates is worth looking at:
Discovery and Lead selection - Approx 50% of candidates fail at this point
Pre Clinical - Approx 30% fail here
IND - This is a transition gap where it moves from Pre-Clinical to Clinical, This is where Hemogenyx is, there is no testing or failure rate it just is not official yet.
Phase 1 - 30+% fail here
Phase 2 - ~50%
Phase 3 - ~30%

Today Hemogenyx is Pre-Clinical, to the rest of the world except for the fact a load of us are shouting and screaming they are about to go clinical nobody is listening, there is nothing official that makes Hemogenyx any different from the thousands of other pre-clinicals out there of which 50% + 30% will fail at this stage before IND and who may be years from IND application. The FDA are the ones who make Hemo "clinical" and rubber stamp the work done to date. Having seen now how slow pharma is I am not surprised many wait for the IND before investing!
The industry attaches a steep discount at each stage due to the likelihood of failure and we are still in that Discovery/Pre Clinical band. Even though there is a significant chance of failure in Phase 1 entering that Phase significantly increases the likely hood of progressing to Phase 2 and has a significant reduction on the discount offered.

I have been one of the most vocal about Hemo both here and twitter but you reach a point where you realise the people we want to invest are not listening, but they will listen to the FDA. Pre CLNS we were valued at 50-60mil+ and today its? 16mil? We are a year further on with the risk of dilution removed(it happened already) and the risk of pre-clinical testing failure pretty much behind us. I wont say what the SP would be but I seriously cannot see Hemogenyx staying below an mCap of 150-250mil when they start clinical trials, something I expect in the coming months. There is a certain amount of faith that the FDA will rubber stamp everything but I take comfort in the fact that Penn and Wu-Xi etc a

Pure and utter massacre out there, IDK about WW3 but it feels like that on the markets... I for once am happy that Hemo is only down 5%... Pure and utter bloodbath at least for any shares or crypto I watch. Today has been so bad you have to imagine that people who rely heavily on leverage will be wiped out :-(
For us, as hard as it may seem, keep your spirits up, its not rumor or speculation, there is an RNS stating Vlad has asked to meet with the FDA, the FDA aim to do that within 60 days. We are well into the end game here, the last of the sand draining away before hemo becomes "clinical" this share price is not sustainable, this mCap is not a realistic or fair price for a company with so many products in the pipeline and with 2 of them this close to clinical trials.
Even I find days like today depressing and frustrating, but just remember, its everywhere, its not just Hemo.

On the plus side, they either sort it all out without starting WW3 and the markets bounce hard OR we all die and wont care what happens to the markets.

People are worried about World War 3, Russia is massing planes beside Ukraine and Nato are doing likewise. Its a bloodbath out there, people are liquidating assets all over the show. Be thankful we are not crypto or oil related!

Morning :-) yes Pre IND could happen any time from now on, could also see a CBR update, would hope they will want to get that released and out of the way before they get tied up in clinical trials!
Not surprised to see same old games on Hemo though, of all the shares on my watch list this is the only one which is technically up with the spread 1.7-1.8 but yet they print a UT of 1.7 on here and its red.... Funny that.

Great Post socialist, I do agree with HFH though about the CLNs and placing. It should have been done MUCH sooner at a much higher SP, and without the rich individuals who took the bulk of the placing and dumped before the shares were ever listed. I am in complete support of the science, the work, but mistakes were made in the financial side right to the very end of the CLNs. I had a list of people who would have taken part in the placing, very few got a call to actually take part, all of them would have held. But preference was given to a lier who dumped and screwed us all. But.....
Its done, they have the cash, they know mistakes were made and they won't repeat them. Now we are within smelling distance of clinical trials and this pathetic SP is a massive buying opportunity.
I am for sure in Camp 2, but not without regrets along the way!

On that we can agree, clinical trials will be the proof.
#InVladWeTrust

I think if the SP was 17p and not 1.7p you would be much happier, I am not saying I am happy about the speed, I bought years ago expecting clinical trials in 18 months as that is what Vlad told us. Didnt happen, dragged on and on, but back then it was literally HuPHEC and CDX, since then we have CAR-T, SAFE-CAR-T, CBR, lupus collaborations and god knows what else.
Since the CLN fiasco was finally ended Hemo have made significant progress on CAR-T and probably CBR too even though they have not told us about it.
CDX was a PR and management disaster, but Eli didnt walk away because it didnt work and we dont know if anyone else wants it or not.
Let me be clear I am not saying that the last year was not a disaster in terms of PR and share price and funding etc, what I am saying is in spite of that, even with the delays of covid and the time sucked up talking to Eli, Hemo have made big strides forward towards clinical trials.
Who knows, maybe your right and CBR is a false promise, but so far vlad has only been wrong about timescales and SP being a blip, that sort of thing, he has been right about the science every time. I would not trust him to find me the best mortgage but I would trust him if I was sick with cancer. Anyway I am not looking to fight about it, I trust him, if others dont thats ok, there are ALOT of other opportunities out there.

HereforHemo That is more than a little harsh and whilst I gave him grief like everyone else last year because of the CLNs I then had to sit and watch another of my stocks perform just as badly and they were pumping out PR and RNS's. I have also seen numerous other companies tank, crash and burn and do disgusting placings in recent months despite positive news flow. What I am saying is, take the SP and CLNs out of it and look at news flow for the past year and Vlad HAS been delivering.
I ask you this, if the SP had not tanked over the past 12 months and nothing else had changed but the SP had slowly climbed, would you instead of being bearish be singing Vlads praise on the exact same news flow?

MrIndia your guess is as good as mine, all I can say is the docs from the FDA are clear, its supposed to be within 60 days. Why are few people buying? There are no anywhere apart from this site where anyone is talking about it, there have been zero posts about Hemo in days on twitter. Nobody is advertising the fact that Hemo are close to clinical, it has less exposure than a nun.

Hemotruth call it whatever you want, the MMs use UTs to mark the SP up or down, I am not sure why your so defensive of them, its not a conspiracy it just what they do. For the record I put in a matched order yesterday at 16:28 for just over 5k shares at 1.75 just because I was sick of them moving it down and we were on a 1.7 UT from 8am open. Ended up buying shares at 1.7 with no sell because they posted a large sell order at 1.7 at 16:34 because they wanted it to close at 1.70. Believe what you want, most of us realise the MMs are not our friends and are not here to make any of us money, and like I said, sometimes they use them to move the SP up and to encourage buying as well, I am simply calling it out as dishonest, it may be legal but it is manipulation.

GlenFidrich yep I saw that, they are getting beyond a joke, this is not a one off, this is every day lately but as you and others have pointed out its NOT a bad sign.
Every day the MMs are trying to encourage people to sell, they are not printing high UTs to move the SP up or encourage buying, they paint the stall red, they move the SP down if they can for any reason whatsoever. Its demoralising, its annoying and frustrating and when people are like that they take a loss and sell. If the MM's wanted us to buy they would make us happy and paint it blue, move it up a fraction, but they dont.
We are days now from FDA meeting, the CBR update could be a game changer for the entire industry (Potentially, we dont know). CAR-T is the one we know is moving fast, they are going to IND in the very near future and after today we could get an update literally any day.
Today the share price is a gift and unlike other shares atleast we know here there is cash in the bank so for now we are safe from potential dilution, thats a big deal right now. If we are all saying that there is a very good chance that people who dont use these forums are saying the same.
Why would the MMs day after day encourage people to sell and never buy? They are supposed to induce liquidity, but they only want us selling, either they are loading up for themselves or filling orders, MrIndia sorry to say but people like you are the ones they are after, people who think "If it drops any more I am going to sell". Time and time again it works, drop the price people sell, drop it more, people sell more.
The current SP is just not sustainable, there is too much news due in Q1.

Pre-Ind is on FDA terms so it's days or weeks of that I am confident. Vlads definition of "soon" and leaves a lot to be desired, thankfully the FDA don't use words like soon or blip, they publish guidelines and state 60 days.
As for CBR, update coming soon, vlad said soon, that was back in September I think.... Yea so like I said, atleast with CAR-T it's the FDA setting the timetable ;'-D