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panama @ 11:53
Heartily concur that H's valuation of 33p is sound (having read through it several times) and should be used as baseline value / price going forward (almost a quarter Mickey).
You would expect that as we get nearer to the DFS we should get near to that or indeed beyond....depending what else is reported from the assays.
To say its slashed is misleading. Its less than last years when they paid a special. BUT its the 2nd highest interim........
.. a further surge.. :)
My top-up Buy of 5,000 at 10:15'ish is a BUY not a sell........probably the same with a few of the others.
sandgrounded @ 12:24
" The third option is a takeover bid for all of Havieron. He still has the problems with his shareholders, but the cost savings would make it attractive for Newcrest."
Err.... what cost savings ???
Expenditure for sure.
At 50p per GGP share that's a bill somewhere north of £2BN
plus an increase of 33% for mine development costs when their share goes from 75% to 100% of HAV.
Longer term, say 4 or 5 years, then NCM will get more INCOME (not the same as cost savings though).
In the short term, even if they did manage to takeover GGP then the upshot could be that they leave themselves vulnerable to a takevoer from a better funded rival.
Really really doubt NCM shareholders would buy this when we know they want better dividends.
Much better to have a good arm-length relationship with GGP and almost if you will treat us as their exploration arm in AUS.
Exactly. And they'd have to pay ALL the mine development costs i.e. an increase of 33% (if they take up the 5% and own 75%). Just can't see it as earnings accretive in the short term, long term sure.
Further. A CEO will not launch a hostile takeover bid UNLESS he is pretty darn sure he will win (unless your Musk). as failure to complete the deal will put your own job on the line. As at least 60% of the GGP shares are in PI hand he has NO idea he can win ie get more than 50% of the vote.
Conclusion. It ain't happening and all this bluster about a takeover is just some new investors hoping for a quick buck. As simple as that.
...indeed the Sprott article is really difficult to read and needs several passes but as you note it does value GGP higher than one would first think.
what has he got in store for 3.30pm?........
...bank loan ie debt funding.
We need to look out for the key metrics ie interest rate, T&C's inc can we pay down loan early without penalty etc
I'm expecting a 3rd RNS at 12:00 re the debt funding. ...
and more importantly you can't use the 60 to work out the 25%'s worth as the 60 is last years news. simples.
yep we only own 25% of the mine - you've multiplied 60m by 20 not by 5.
I make that 3.3m per day.
Strudel, I'm afraid you've answered a different question. Effectively what you've done is decided that the first PIN is 1 and only one 4-digit number. You've pre-decided that the first card to arrive - cannot have any of the other 9,999 numbers. That wasn't the premise of my original post.
Likewise your comment about the 2 dice being rolled 'together' is incorrect.
If you throw 2 dice the chances of getting 2 sixes really is 1 in 36
Likewise with 2 PINs it is 10,000 x 10,000
The bottom line is it is one statistical event and you need to treat each card/PIN as having ANY one of the possible values (not a specific value which is what you have done).
Anyway I hadn't intended to distrub the board with my thoughts other than to make the point that realy unlikely events can and do occur - more often than one would have thought.
So yes I do think there is distinct possibility than our own elephant hunters could well find something else - particulary as they're so not wildcat drillers.
The mistake people are making is considering each card separately whereas it is ONE statistical event (in this case).
GGPThruandtru. The answer to your dice question is....
The probablity of rolling two 6's with a pair of die is.... 0.02777778
or if you prefer 1 in 36.
Bancal - your logic is flawed. You are only considering the odds of a particular PIN number on ONE card - which is as you say 1 in 10,000. However, what I clearly stated was was 2 cards arriving with the SAME pin. So you have to consider the both cards PIN number range at the same time i.e. it is one event, 2 cards - for statistical purposes.
So it is 10,000 x 10,000 - which is ......
"Joking aside - what are the chances of a HAV x 2, seriously?"
Unsual things happen more often than you would think. In the last 3 months I flipped 2 of my credit cards and as we know each card has a PIN number made up of 4 digits 0000-> 9999 (in theory).
So what are chances that these 2 new cards from 2 DIFFERENT providers would arrive with the SAME PIN?
I think the odds are 1 in 100 million.
Makes you wonder. So I'm thinking there is more to found but whether its exactly the same, somthing different or a cluster of smaller ones - who knows. BUT don't bet against it..
GLALTH
The RNS states they cannot SELL them in the first year. It does NOT explicitly state they cannot LOAN them out (although that could be in the small print).
pressed send too soon:)
Yes I believe they could raise capital Sandgounded.
So they could loan them out ... to a shorter....
BUT there might be something in the small print which isn't explicit in the RNS which prevents that happening.
Yes I believe they could raise capital Sandgounded.
So they could loan them out ... to a shorter....
BUT there might be something in the small print which isn't explicit in the RNS