Member Info for JRDC

I don't think it's a coincidence that both odx and Avacta have complete radio silence for past month or two. Although not officially confirmed, we know odx are involved in avactas test, and from initial reports, the Avacta test is likely to be the most accurate on the market. I don't think we'll hear anything official until Feb while discussions are ongoing. I think there's plenty of cash to be made in both shares, assuming odx aren't chucking all their eggs in the antibody basket. I reckon the biggest issue will be price. If govt are wanting to pay £6 a test, Avacta)odx could sell for double that abroad. Does the govt want the media to know they let a potential UK supply of tests go abroad while they're stuck with slated Chinese tests because they wouldn't stump up the cash?

Don't worry, by the time we release our test, all this bad press will be forgotten.

Suppose the big question is does contracting UK covid strain give you immunity to Brazilian or south African, or any other future strains. Also can you still be contagious if infected with another strain almost immediately after?

No point spending millions on antibody tests if it can't show you're immune or at best cannot be infectious if +ve. It's a nice to have to show a vaccine has triggered an immune response, whether it's an immune response that will work on the Kazakhstan strain 4 months down the line we won't know yet. Which is why ODX are fooked imo, unless they're given a contract to produce millions of LFT antigen tests.

I think Newcastle fans would disagree with it helping their mental health.

I'm glad it's going ahead as at least we can keep an eye on Kyle walker for 90 minutes twice a week.

Anyone know how Mologic's (odx) lft compares to (provisonally) Avacta, surescreens and Boris's favourite chinese one? Be nice to see a league table of tests, estimated No cases detected per million, cost / million tests, and NHS cash saved @ £2000 / day over a 12 month period if assumed 1% of these missed cases end up on ICU. Then tweet the ****er to every NHS decision maker.

Mologic:
Independent assessment at Liverpool University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, as part of the FASTER study with 28 patients presenting for care, resulted in a sensitivity of 92 percent, and a specificity of 100 percent, corresponding to RT-qPCR-confirmed COVID-19 cases. Limit of detection studies estimate a 50 percent tissue culture infectious dose (TCID50/ml) of 100-350 (<5x10^2 pfu/ml), a key tool for estimating the infectious titer of a virus.

Evening Craig. We spend way too much time on here

They're based at pride park Derby, and yes they manufacture tests and diagnostic equipment. Whether they now have help from a 3rd party to meet demand I can't tell you

Medusa are like that weird kid in school you accidentally said hello to once and now can't shake them.

Delighted for them, they're a small private company local to me in derby, will be life changing for them, let's move away from those s****y Chinese tests finally! Hopefully we'll be joining them come April. Will be interesting to see if they've gone for the cheaper slightly less accurate one or the one with the digital fluorescent reader. Might have mentioned it in the article but I just skim read. Both are to be performed by clinical staff.

Surescreen are based in Derby near me. The antigen tests are brain ticklers £15+vat each, MOQ 25, had a 4 - 6 week lead time before Xmas. Only 2 vials of buffer solution is supplied as it's clinical use only. Their literature states positive tests should be confirmed by PCR. Have used their antibody tests in the summer, worked fine, easy to use and great value at £6.50+ vat each. Again, clinical use only.

Antibody testing was announced in October before the UK strain took hold and numbers exploded. We should have peaked weeks ago. Govt will now want vaccine rolled out asap to the key groups this year, with lft test5to identify live pockets of infection. Govt will not be looking at antibody testing to control the virus anymore, nor for how effective the vaccine is, the number of lft tests will show how endemic it is in areas. There was a link posted on ncyt board about serology tests struggling with new variants. It's a none starter imho, lft production will be in demand whether its mologic or avacta. How much profit that will bring I don't know

Yearly as is common with flu jab. Govt may decide shorter intervals once vaccine rollout has reached all intended. Old or vulnerable people who have had covid will still be offered the vaccine. If you decide to purchase an antibody test yourself, and base your decision to have a vaccine around the result, then that's your decision. I purchased £15 antibody tests in the summer as staff were interested to see if they contracted it at some point. Surescreen picked up antibodies in september from confirmed infection in early march from a colleague. A positive test wouldn't have changed my attitude to risk, I can still be reinfected and pass it to others.

How would an immunity passport even work given you can be reinfected and vaccines don't prevent it!? That would be reckless.

What's the point of an antibody test when a vaccine won't prevent you catching covid? Detecting who is infectious is the priority. Antibody tests are fine for chronic illnesses, like HIV, or for statistics. Surescreen submitted their antibody test back in early April and are still waiting for approval, and have gone down the antigen route and were approved in just a few months.

Given people will likely have yearly boosters regardless of their antibody status there's no need for it. Antigen testing is all that is required, once mass testing is in place alongside vaccines life can slowly start to return to normal.

Odx will make most of their cash with the lft tests, they'd be better off putting their energy in to formal partnerships with the likes of avacta.

"you should continue to follow this shielding advice until further notice as we continue to assess the impact of vaccination among all groups"

What the hell was the point of phase 3 trials if they dont know if the vaccine works for the group that needs it most?

200 kids are still being sent to my kids primary school. What lockdown?

I Think we'll find it's true value this time next year. If vaccines are working better than expected, lockdown less restrictive, fewer ICU admissions, global move to lft testing etc then sp will peak this year, whatever that may be, probably after half year results in July

If vaccines are shown to be ineffective for vulnerable groups in particular, lft inaccurate against new strains, then sp could well be several times higher, and a pe of 9+ could be applied given long term requirement for PCR.

I'll probably be selling my remaining holding from July, been one hell of a ride but Ive already smashed my target price of £5, if it hits £20+ a year from now I'll be delighted for remaining holders. Maybe Avacta will have a test by then.

Don't get why nova holders are panicing. I'd rather be in a situation waiting to see if we're making £500m+ as opposed to 'just' £250m, than still waiting to see if we have a workable test, and a test that will stand up to future strains... My fault for moving majority of my holding from nova to avacta shortly before lift off, but that was on the promise of an imminent test some months back. Daren't move back now just incase the miracle happens so myself and cap'n stanley having to look on jealously.

Miles M reckoned January is going to be explosive for us. So I'm 99% certain we'll not hear a bean this month and Feb will start to see the pieces come together.

Superb thread, enjoyable read! Makes a change from reading the ramping bolox from RK and the crew. 90% of my pension is in here, if only half of the opportunites come to fruition in next 15 years I might actually be able to retire at a sensible age

oh, good, not just me, i just made a thread too

They're **** aren't they, fed up of it