Member Info for JRDC

The avacta test isnt perfect, but its good enough to get society moving and hopefully be performed/interpreted by the layman, and it's the best LFT so far (the protein target makes it more suitable for saliva too), to get hospitality sector open again, schools back up and running, businesses back on track. PCR or a brain tickler LFT wouldn't be appropriate or feasible for nationwide adoption. Whether invested or not it's a great thing just like vaccines, we'll have a summer we can look forward to, whilst the EU will look on in jealously, with no where enough vaccines given and not enough testing to open things up. Meanwhile PCR can keep hospital / care home patients and staff safe, differentiate between strains of covid, or if it's flu, and keep clinical staff where they're needed and not stood in a car park.

I take the p*ss out of the length of time its taken avacta to get their figures released (and I'm very heavy in there). Partly due to condor dragging their feet, and I think since the summer last year NDAs have been signed which limits the actual news. But they now have the best LFT in the world, mainly down to affimers.

PCR will still have its place in hospitals, care homes and other settings where length of time to achieve results isn't an issue and there are trained staff on site, and have extremely vulnerable patients, the LFT will be needed to get the country moving again. My entire ISA and pension is invested over ncyt and avct so I have the best of both worlds.

Its pretty much nailed on that their test is the one chosen by the govt for mass production by this consortium. Sigh of relief from me.

I'm still optimistic that phase 1 will / is being extended, but either way I have no desire to sell any more here. Even if revenues are predicted to be 'only' £100-£150m for the next few years, that should at least allow a typical p/e ratio which should mean SP is massively undervalued.

Spare a thought for ODX and their antibody test no one wants

Will be interesting if Govt do open up to private sector if they dictate that the test must be avactas, and does not have to be done by a 'clinically trained' person, or do they lower the required accuracy to open the test up, in which case why would they be so insistent on ramping up UK production. MHRA approval needs to come at some point (sooner rather than later), if it becomes political can they lean on them or overrule them? I can still see this becoming political with us in the middle

I think markets are assuming the worst re the govt contract, and until GM lets us know what our sales are exactly without the dhsc contract going forwards is, we'll probably drop to under £7 when the LFT moonshot program is announced in a few weeks. I know it's not comparing apples but it did make me smile when Bumble is now worth $13bn when it made a loss last year and a profit in 2019 of just $68m

Good luck getting a response from them - their CS was utterly shocking before covid. Average was around 2 weeks to reply to a message back then. Hope the likes of Free trade take them to the cleaners

On interactive invester my syme investment which has been showing as £0.00 for last few weeks is now back to 4 figures. Was still £0.00 this afternoon.

Lft has their place, as does PCR. Avacta sensitivity is 50 thingies per wotsit which so far is the best in world for an LFT and I believe puts it at a similar accuracy to a decent PCR test.

PCR will always be used in a clinical setting, but for weekly home/self testing it isn't, or for young kids who don't want a swab from back of the throat or brain, and that's where avacta will come in. I'm invested in both to have all bases covered. I topped up a bit after results at £9, and have no doubt it will shoot through that this year. If I could sell my syme holding I'd stick it straight in here.

I've not had chance to read the board today so got 10 mins while I get little one to sleep. Apologies if this had been asked/answered.

Is the spit test back on the menu then, is that what mologic are helping with? Dont mologic have their own lft test, and if so why are they helping a competitor with a supposedly superior test? Or is the mologic test using affimers?

Have been thinking about this. Not quite apples and apples, but nova have an mcap less than twice ours, a pile of £90m+ in cash and near £1m sales a day, with near 80% profit margin.

If moonshot is like most govt contracts awarded based on a set of points, usually price makes up as much as half the available (no longer lowest bidder always wins), would Al rather have a guaranteed X million units a month at a small profit, or instead target business sales, public events, EU market with a far higher profit margin, even if sales are lower (I'm assuming "we'll sell everything we make" still applies at 2m a month, one prediction of Al's must surely come true). Or will Avacta receive a % in licencing from each test, or contract as a whole, or will govt want exclusivity for x months. Does Al have further manufacturing partners lined up? If so announcing these would be outside moonshot and the NDA. So either we're all in with govt, and odx are involved somewhere along the line, or we're still some months away, in which case he would/should have let shareholders know... Are mologic involved? Will govt use multiple tests? Id doubt it as they'd need consistency. All questions us poor shareholders will probably never be given the answer to whatever happens on the 22nd

If it was Myles who posted it then it would be bolox like every other prediction he's made and can be safely ignored. Poundcake is a bit of a pillock but occasionally comes out with gold. IMO the lft is behind BAMS development wise so I'd be amazed if we hear anything this month about its release, but I'll take it. Must have taken him a good couple of hours to knock that up in word though.

Agree.... 12 months ago.

As recent SP action has told us, only thing propelling this upwards to £12+ is either guaranteed long term revenue which will give a nice steady SP, a takeover, or activation of phase 2, which will make SP shoot up before retracting. Especially true as shareholders are the last to know about sales so having to make decisions based on rumour. If GM said revenues will be average £150m for the next 5-7 years, we'd be pretty happy with that

Put it this way, if this drops below £7 this week I'll be dumping my avacta stock and piling it in here - its nearly a 'free' company for someone. Yes Avacta have great long term potential - far more so than here imo, but thats a good 12+ months off, I don't think the LFT is anywhere near ready yet (which is the only thing keeping the sp above £1). We've no idea how much of that £300m+ is made up of the £150m DHSC contract - £50-75m could be outstanding until contract complete. If nova guaranteed £100m+ revenues for next 5 years the SP would be several times higher than it is now.

Yes, I hold 1/5 nova, 4/5 Avacta

You seem to act like a nob

Just be thankful he's not as silent as Alastair Smith. It's like asking my 6 year old what he did at school that day

Interesting that their mcap is now only £677m with EBITDA of £187m. 99.9% of companies would dream of those figures

Oh FFS it is right thread. I'm going to bed

Sorry wrong thread

Robinhood are closing people's accounts and then selling way below market price :o absolutely shocking.

Guess that's the end of that platform

I was p*ssed off this morning reading that RNS. However a quick bit of reading. Brukers machines really are widespread in the UK, as far back as 2011 they were under clinical trial in glamorgan (first hospital in wales to start using them), so at least 10 years worth of sales since then, google shows dozens of hospitals in england alone. Sepsis (one of the biggest killers in the world until now) was the main driving force for their rollout. All this RNS is for is to see how well it runs on bruker equipment, I read it as the prototype is done, theyve refined with UK partners and are now wanting to test it out in anger.

As per my previous research where LGC group bought the company who supplied reagents to avacta, Bruker would have known this too and not wanted to lose Avacta technology to sciex - a competitor of theirs. Doesn't mention the word 'exclusivity' in the contract either, so avacta free to sign up with sciex and others too. Maybe al learnt his lesson from the medusa f*ck up. Ok, we'll have only earned royalties so far from research use, but from the summer we'll be well underway. If govt does go ahead with phase 2 of novacyts contract it won't impact us, as the MS testing infrasture is already in place, and has 10 years to become embedded in UK hospitals, with 10 years of training. The reports of Nova struggling to get engagement and training won't be an issue for us.

I reckon Al is going to paint his bathroom with them. Affimer blue would look nice.