Member Info for Jonno41

I keep wondering whether a third buyer is here, that would be good news for your list Vinson if we had a TR-1 saying someone not on your list owns say 5%+.... It is interesting how more and more shares appear to be being bought by long termers, and I am guessing this will probably cause liquidity issues up to 30p and possibly (hopefully) beyond.

Looks depserate for shares - someone buy £20K's worth @ 18.9, MM's drop price to 18.8, and probably blocks big buys.

The only way now for MM's to get shares is for tjhe price to go up.

IMO

GLA 20p today??

Feverteeman - unless there are events happening in the background which cannot currently be revealed and would make any conversation with CA pointless or even dishonest, therefore avoid dialogue until your able to release news.

I run a umber of businesses and communications have to be careful consdered during "delicate periods, and we are clealry in a delicate period.

I am not defending the board, merely offering a theory as to why there might be acting in this way - I do not think they are so arrogant to not care about such a large shareholder.

Agreed Frankie - I understand this quite well which is why I hypothasised. But fundamentally agree that we should see 50p this year and £1 plus next year if things go to plan.

Another interested twist - there is something significant going on thats for sure - why else would you ignore Cystal Ambers emails and requests to be a director - whatever it is, its sure to impact the SP but in which direction?

I have always suspected HUR RNS's are worded to bring the SP down, and there is usually a reason for that - no point in speculating, but the game appears very much afoot and I doubt we'll have to wait much longer to find our what the "game" is.

It would have been very easy for Maris to add to the last RNS "with the increase in oil prices we have seen increased revenues which will cover the repayment of bonds and offer us self funded options going forward. Additional funding will allow us to accelate these options and we anticpate to be able to make an announcement regarding this in the coming weeks."

All we really need is an RNS showing us Cashflow projections based on average oil prices and projected well production rates for the next 12 months or so, at that point we'll be able to see what level (if any) of free cash will be available after the bondholders are repaid and then asectain what value should be placed on the shares. I do not think any of us has a true grasp of CapEx - it would really help to see it - and we'd all then be able to stop guessing our true financial position.

We've been led to think there is not enough cash to cover the bondholders, but we've been fed the same line since ol prices were half their current levels - so lets hear from Maris what difference it has made.

GLA

Unfortunately not Frankie - say your market size is 100 and your approval rates drop from 50% to 30% - that mean you get 30 loans approved not 50. If the market increases so by 20% from 100 to 120 and still get a 30% approval rate that 36 not 50 unfortunately.

If you add fixed costs to this it will make an impact on profitablity - the fixed costs will be split between agents and acquisition costs and the enquiry acquisition costs will go up by 20% if you are paying a cost per enquiry.

If however you increase your range of products, to cover more people in different circumstances your approval rate might go up, which could fix the problem.

GL

Last couple of weeks the volume trading (not including after hour trades) is not huge. It feels like most who wanted to buy and sell have done so and the rest are happy to hold because they are confident of positive news one assumes.

I think the 2 you have missed is get the financng in place to start leninding again and the FCA finishng their invesigation and lifting the VREQ - this cannot happen before the court case but could happen pretty soon afterwards.

The other risk as far as I can see is impact new affordability checks have on loan approval rates, as this will almost certainly have an impact on profitability... i.e. if you make £1000 per loan and you approval rate drip from 50% to 30%, the amount you make will fall by the same amount but your fixed costs will stay the same.

So simple calc:

Per 100 loans

Previous 50% approval income @ £1000 a loan = £50K income
New 30% approval rate @£1000 a loan = £30K income

If the fixed costs are say £20K your profit from 100 loans drop from £30K to £10K and then 15% of that goes to the SOA.

Obvioulsy a bigger drop in approval rate could have a bigger impact on profitbility and a smaller drop a less impact.

If Amigo 2.0 have a winder range of loans, perhaps the approval rate will stay the same or even increase.... either way its an important stat to monitor.

GLA

I'd say 90/10 if not less. If the board can win the JB vote - they'll win this one, no question whatsoever, and how can the court agree to the vote and hen block the outcome.... and the FCA need the company to make a profit in order to pay - and of coure they need to SOA to go live to avoid seeig consumers with no compensation.

Its going to happen, period... The only risk is if soemething unexpected/unrevealed happens that we do not know about and takes us all by surprise, which of course can happen when you own shares in a company, but this is also unlikely becasue GJ and friends will look awfully silly if after all their positivity they rerveal some sort of show stopper...

I'm more uptight about the ramifications of the super league to be honest.

And I'm got close to half a million shares with average of 10p.

GLA

Lots of large trades going through - it looks like the sales and buys are similar amounts - almost as if someone is selling and someone else is buying on market not OTC.... Unless they are all buys and MM's are making them look likes sales but L2 suggests not....

It certainly looks loike alot of resistance to any downward movement - I think MM's tried to drop the price yesterday morning but did not manage to by any real amount - few stop losses to be found coupled with buying pressure - clearly breaking 18p is not going to be easy with buying pressure at these levels eased as well. Feels like the II's are currently buying under 18p.

If we can go into next month 18p- 20p its feels like a good place to be, to fly we still need the court case and vote which appears to be a no brainer, and then a release from the FCA which of course can only happen after the SOA is set up - they cannot remove the Vreq without the SOA for obvious reasons.. But they might of told Amigo, you can announce the lifting of restrictions as soon as the court case has passed.... if so what an RNS that will be, becuase they could also then give a timetable to restart lending......

Only way is up... I hope.....

GLA

You might well be right, there is tremdous upside, but its not as simple as you paint it.

The FCA will hopefully lift the Vreq once the SOA has passed and allow relending, however that does not instantly make the company worth its previous value..... For instance, this company will have to deal with a much smaller enquiry to loan conversion rate as the new affordability critera will mean they have to turn down more customers as the affordability checks will be harder to meet.

Thats where Amigo 2.0 comes in I assume, probably a suite of products and roadmap to go global (hopefully) which will make then give a potential to grow beyond past performance, but it will take time.

The SP might go up, and keep going so we could see £1+ this summer and £2 Plus by year end. Its not inconcievable but also not risk free. CMC's will be doing there best to disrupt the model with new claim strategies and funding might come with more requirements...higher interest rates... The FCA might restrict growth in some way (although I doubt is because as long as the company is doing right by the consumer the FCA will want to maximise its fee which is based ona % of turnover)

My normal cuatious trading plan is not in play here, I am going to hold until the legals are out of the way and FCA have completed thier investigation and lending has returned, if we see a good increase MOM (not WOW or daily) I'll keep holding and might sell some shares @ 50p + and then agin at £1+

If the share price becomes volatile and does not go up (which might happen) I'll probably exit in the 20's/30's and build a more diversified PF.

GLA

It happened in December with a similar impact to the SP - its the usual "market hates uncertainty" - especially over finance and debt repayment and Hurricane have kept this a main issue, so any price rise needs to be driven by II buying, although CA seem to be able to buy wthout any real impact to the SP...

The board have bought a handful of shares between them, which I take to mean they do not expect the sp to go up - not sure if we are in a closed period but if we are they would of been plenty of time previously to purchase.

Has there ever been a multibag with such a low board shareholding..... It's a major concern of mine and makes me worry there is news to come which could send the SP crashing, and that is why Maris does not make positive comments or buy any shares.

Hope I'm wrong, and of course the board could buy in at any point.... lets hope they do....

Good post Elementary - I would add that its a shame our CEO did not comment - but its surely good news the seconds well is producing again and the water cut has not decreased. I really do not understand why they would finance through dilution and if they did not the upside would be greater...

GL to you too...

I think you need to add to that statement the risk factors when investing in this stock - the same risk factors that have kept it tumbling on every rise.

Reading your comment, if I didn't know better, I would be buying shares without understanding the complexities around Hurricane, and I don't think this is very fair.

Thats not to say, if the wind does blow in the right direction the SP won't go up in multples, but just to add, that if it does not, as the RNS's have warned us on many occasions, we could be diluted from these levels or even worse.....

DYOR

Novice, yes I agree there does not have to be any connection between the 2, it just seems strange their holdings are so similar, as are the notifications - some sort of connection seems likely, just not sure what.

My understanding is because Bybrook do not hold shares directly, they have borrowed them (as in an option - long not short) and because they hold about the same as J P Morgan is seems likely the 2 shares are connect (so 8% not 16% in total),

Of course it would now be possible for Bybrook to go to another 3rd party and ask for the shares to be acquired in the same way, return the JP Morgan shares simultaneously and neither party would need to declare only the new 3rd party.

So for instance Bybrook could go to Morgan Stanley, ask them to acquire 8% of Amigo, as Morgan Stanley, Bybrook expire options to JP Morgan and acquire them from Morgan Stanley and no holding notications would come from either party - only Morgan stanely, because the positions would not change.

I only mention this because it could be a sneaky way of increasing holdings without having to notify the market. Not sure what the logic is here, I am sure there is some.....

I posted this lat week - not sure if its possible but:

"is it possible that Bybrook have borrowed JP Morgans shares, which is why they both hold the same amount, one directly and one indirectly through an instrument."

Must be a link between the 2.

No that’s not the case - respected equity research compaNies are highly respected and used - it to not say JP. Morgan does not have one but there are Chinese wall issues and not all research teams will research Amigo!

Just to add I have not heard of Everest so I do not know how respected they are

DYOR but I do have direct experience of this