Member Info for Jonno41

The bits that interest me are:

Cashflow - Something rarely mentioned on these boards clearly relending and in what capacity (and at what rate) is hugely dependant on Amigos short term ability to rejoin the market
FCA - What can the FCA do at the end of their investigation - again we have not really spent much time debating this. I assume "not much" as they are highly unlikely to not oppose the SOA and then place them in a position which makes future business untenable. So presumably we might see a fine, or perhaps commitment to report back to the FCA on various things such as "affordability" strategy on a regular basis, but to do something to make future persuits untenable does not seem likley.

So I''d like to think their is nothing overly concerning in this report

@Vinson - with such as large holding, you might consider purchasing the report - if you do it would be great if you could share anything of interest with the board - assuming that allowed (which is probably isn't) :)

Not sure if anyone has heard of this company, but they released a report on Amigo end of last week ... perhaps the contents of this report have made some investors invest... No idea what is says, has anyone bought it, or know anything about the company?

https://www.everestresearch.co.uk/product/amigo-memo-080421/

Hope I am wrong but an early spike of 15.5 and a close just below 14.4

Again apologies for a potentially silly hypothasis - but is it possible that Bybrook have borrowed JP Morgans shares, which is why they both hold the same amount, one directly and one indirectly through an instrument.

Could this explain the large trading volume seen without an RNS.

Or is that an impossible scenario?

One thing I did notice is Bybrook and JP Morgan now own almost exactly the same, main diffeence is Bygrook do not hold the shares directly

Can someone explain what Bybrook have done here, I know JP Morgan did the same.... but not being a trader it is not that clear (to me).

Do they have options to buy but not actual shares, and have they now bought more options and therefore increased their voting rights.. Or have they bought voting rights and not shares... Although I don't think thats possible?

Apologies if I have got this completely wrong, can Traveller or someone who knows more than me help please.

Just trying to understand what this means (if anything).

This is positive, although bear in mind, CA have mopped up a huge a mount of PI's selling - when this happened during the last drop, the price recovered to 3p+ whilst they bought and then dropped back when they finished. So be careful, CA buying does not mean anything more than CA think anything under 3p is a bargain.

Saying that they have always maintained the shares are worth more than 3p, so might be a smart move - or they believe in their geologists who think there is much more oil down there..

All in must be a good thing as CA know more than us, and they are buying... so hopefully good am reaction testing 3p.

GLA

There's pleny going on:

A court case
A vote
An FCA investigation

Now the initial court case has been help and the FCA have not opposed the scheme, those in are likely to stay in and those not in are likely to wait.

I feel the company does not watn the SP to rist until after MAy 12, so any promotions to II's might be on hold for 4 weeks.

The big unkown s when the FCA investgation will finish, and the result of that should have an impact on the SP - one way or the other,

GLA

When JB tried to sack the board and vote himself in, the vote was very close - especially for the CFO - the comms to the shareholders was frequent - which suggests the board knew it was close.

Using that logic, the less comms we see to borrowers the more likely it is the vote is going well. If we start to see lots of ads in newspapers, on the radio, websites etc. I would be a little concerned the voting is not going so well.

However, unlike the JB vote, Amogo have created this vote, and they would have done their research and be very confident of a very sizeable majority voting in favour of the scheme. Plus, logically why would you vote against it.

I just hope the SP stays at these levels until the court case on the 12th. We do not want a court hearing where the SP has increased significantly as it will send out the wrong message. This has to be about redress for borrowers and guarantors until the scheme is passed. Using that logic I do not see relending starting before the 12th.

The FCA's investigation however will conclude as the FCA decides so that could happen at any point - and anything other than a huge fine, or another stiff penalty should see the SP fly into the 20's

Quite a few large trades (100K - 200K) going through around 14.5p. look like buys but hard to say as the spread is small... Hopefully someone building...

Hidden message? "As soon as you see the PDMR RNS start buying, it means we've won the vote and the FCA are off our back" :)

You never know!

CaptainSwag - I agree there must of been a reason why they paid for the CPR - perhaps they wanted technical data to help improve the changes of Side-Track/Water injection working - and yes I am sure their team are analysing daa the whole time in order to decie what the best next step is.

The logical next step is suely another well on Lancaster, I am sure drilling an exploration well in Halifax or Wawick would come at a greater risk, so I am less concerend abot the Halfax right off.

It seems that the geology is so complex the more analysis they do they more likley it is they find something of interest. But that means nothing to the market - CA seem to beleive there is alot more oil down there, but they seem to be at odds with Hurricane - not surprising when you conisder their asset depreciation.

I just think most on these board need to try and find some actual information rather than ramping things like CPR reports where there was absolutely no suggestion of upside outside the boards

I also think the company need to give more financial data to us highlighting, cost, overheads, loans, income, projected income etc. so we can all see (rather than speculate) the actual cost being incured, revenue being generated and loans.

I thought there would be enough revenue to pay bondholders, meet other financial obligations and pay shareholders a special dividend before closing the company - the Mccap is so low without dilution that dividend could be very much more in excess of the share price.

I could be wrong but if I was invested I'd be cntacting Hurricane and asking them that very question

No, it was a sell @ 2.33p

It does look like one of the bigger holders is reducng their holding. I think "Malcys" no news comment is completely missing the point.

Investors were hoping for an upgrade in CPR in order to make Hurricane a good commercially viable investment after the bondholders have been paid off.

So to say no increase in CPR is "No News" is clearly missing the point.

I hope for all holders 2p proves as strong a resistance as before and causes a bounce

Are you sure there will be no money left for shareholders, my previous calculations told me there would be money left over with the higher oil prices... just not enough to side-track??

To me, the question is simply, if the bondholders do not want to risk a further work program because if it fails they will lose their investment, what will be left for shareholders after the bondholders and overheads are covered should no further work take place, whats that per share and then allow the shareholders to vote for either the amount that is left to be paid in them in the form of a dividend or to dilution and a further work program in the hope that brings a bigger return.

It all depends what is left, if its over 5p most shareholders would take it

My point is bondholders have presumably been given enough information through engagement to decide to block the work program and we should also be engaged with so we can vote on what we would most like to happen. Currently that does not appear ot be an option, more like "prepare for diluton" and accept there may be no value left for shareholders if we can't get funding....

Someone's had enough

16:45:04 2.69889 13,500,000 364.35k O

Bet thats not a profit taker :-(

Something else of interest (i think) is I spotted one trade of 1M buy was "A" not "O", it struck me as odd to see such a large Automated trade on a day of not that many trades... most large trades are not Automated...

I'm not a trader so apologies if this is irrelevant..

ATB

PI's should do a "Bowleven", sack the board stop all expenses apart from essential and pay a dividend out of the fund not set aside for Bondholders.

If there is enough to make it worthwhile.

It can be done, CA and Kerogen over to you to force an EGM.....

Personally I would want the board to engage shareholders on further work programs and potential dilution. If I was CA I would want to know how much there will be left for shareholders if no future work takes place, bondholders are replaid and infractstructure is decommissioned.

If there is 5p+ I'd consdier voting for no further work programs, skeleton staff ETC. and see if a special dividend can be given to all sharehold for say 5p... If oil price staya high this might be the best case scenario.

The reason the bondholder won't allow the side track or water injection is if it fails they wont get thier money back, and bearing in mind Hurricane usually fail, why wouldn't they. Surely sharedolders should be given the same option, although it appears from MAris's comments that is not going to be the case.

i'd be pushing for an EGM, and a vote on whether dilution for more driling is preferred to no more drilling and a dividend. No one has been told what will be left after bondholders are repaid, and what contracts are in place that might incur ongoing expenditure. The board don;t want these questions as they are paid high salries and would bbe delighted with a diluted shareprice and many more years of salaries and bonus's - this is why they never bought any shares!!!!

Shareholders lead by Kerogen and CA should fight to maintain some shareholder value before being diluted to s..t

IMO