Member Info for Jonno41

I am amazed there is no US interest - I am sure there will be at some point. I know a few online loan aggregators who have been bought in the last few years by US investment houses/brands. As we all see succesful loan companies in any environment are uber profitable, never mind a post covid environement.

Thats why we are all here, when Amigo get out of this pickle, Amigo 2 is going to become rip roaringly profitable- does anyone not believe they we could see profit of over £200M in 2022?

IMO - It may never happen of course, but as the pieces line up the likelihood of sucess increases.

I wonder how much of schemee will towards paying FOS monies Amigo owes them?

How did you arrive at £15m versus the previously disclosed provision of £159m?

The complaints provision of £159m was as at 30 September 2020. We have paid and are continuing to make payments to customers who received Final Response Letters or who had FOS upheld decisions dated before 21 December 2020, as well as some related complaints administrative costs. We expect the majority of the unutilised provision to be used in redress delivered via balance adjustments on existing loans. The £15-£35m cash contribution to the Scheme is expected to be used to make a payment under the terms of the Scheme to past customers who have already paid off their Amigo loans or where an existing customer’s outstanding balance is less than redress owed. The Scheme fund will also be used to make a payment to the FOS in respect of outstanding case fees for dealing with complaints, which are also included in the Scheme. Payments are not expected to be paid in full and will be pro rata between customers and the FOS.

Thanks Franky, lets hope this is the case...

There is certainly market manipulation but you are right, Amigo is currently priced to fail. The only thing that can make them fail is the court or their customers not supported the SOA.

I am 99% sure the customer will, voting no is like Turkeys voting for Christmas. I do not know what risk there is for the courts to find the scheme unlawful and throw it out - is that possible, or is this more of a rubber stamping exercise?

So the main reason why we are not on 20p + today is perhaps the markets still sees uncertainty until the scheme is voted in.

I wonder if lending is still paused to demonstrate a weaker financial position to the courts... I do not believe lending has to be paused right now, so why have we not started relending??

Does anyone recall what the company has said around why relending has not restarted? Perhaps its the FCA investigation, perhaps they are still working with the FCA to try and ensure when they do start relending the FCA are onboard with the affordability checks.

Saying that the FCA will not say to Amigo "These checks are sufficicent"... however comfortable the FCa with the process CMC's will still try and come up with a reason for recourse... Legal guidlines can always be challanged....

Valhalla14 good point, I had not thought of that when writing the email... but yes if you have lost money on Amigo or made money on Amigo there is clearly a benefit to sell and buyback..

Then are 3 trading day until the court case, only news in between will be TR-1's if there are any, if there are price wil increase.

Question is when will relending commence? I had hoped FCA not deregulating Amigo over the scheme would have been the catalyst, perhaps its the VREQ investigation, otherwise the court case or the customer vote... hopefully not the latter as this will be MAy.

I feel that it will be the relending announcement which will see a more sustained recovery... And take us into the 30's and beyond. We should see.. Court approval 20p +, customer vote 25p ...... but the concern is the MM's keep dropping the market before the next bit of news brings it back up. How can we be lower than 2 weeks ago when the FCA could have deregulated us....

Its nonesense IMO

Campaigners campaigning to get complainants nothing by forcing the company into liquidation?

The FCA could have deregulated Amigo but are not going to, customers will vote for the scheme period

https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/news/2021/03/fca-raises-concerns-over-amigo-s-new-redress-scheme-but--won-t-b/

I see this as positive, although they mention "£15M Plus a further £20M PLUS 5% profit for 3 years, this has either changed or been lost in translation by MSE.

Interesting the FCA will not comment further... nothing more to say hopefully, the won't take an regulatory action which is the best we could have hoped for, paving the way for reborrowing presumably at any time??

£80M profit in 2019 - companies like this are sold for between and 10 and 20 times profitt. Get back to that and the Mcap should be somewhere between 800M - 1.6BN - something east to aim for they..... current Mcap £50M - 30p = £100M £3 = £1BN

Apart from the fact this is only 15p - there is no reason we won't see £1 this year... Worth haning around for...

To come hopefully:

Return to lending
VREQ removal
Court approval
Customer approval.

Only thing have going to stop Amigo was being deregulated and guess what happned @ 7AM today?

Please tell me why anyone should sell this share.

Best JB is over the moon he sold all his shares :)

01.) 49,305,000 (10,38%) Bybrook Capital Group. Source: RNS

I think this is 6% according to the latest RNS, unless I qam missing a later one?

Thanks Vinson, this is good reading and a very good insight.

This is why keeping the likes of Martin Lewis on side is so important. He is so incredibly influential -if he says vote for the scheme 80% of his million of members will vote for the scheme (if they have a vote) and the demographic who are his members are very much the same demographic as those taking out loans.

This is why I do not understand why LTIP have been set. They should have been set in June and it seems like it has been set now to lower the LTIP's - yet the risk of what has happened this week - influential consumers figures questioning the SOA on the grounds it will make the board millions in LTIP's is an adbsurd (and arrogant) risk to take at this point, when they could have waited 6 months.

Maybe close @ 11p+

Thaks Franky, I would be happy if that is the outcome - although I would not rule out some redress is years 4 and 5, especially if the redress is under say 30p in the £1.

I was asked for a quote by the Guardian a couple of years ago, and it was taken completely out of context... never again.

This is excelletn and exactly my thoughts - if Martin pushes for Amigo to go bust the customers get Nada - this is why I am in this share, its in no ones interest for the SOA to fail - so assuming the terms are somewhere near acceptable it will double + from here.

I still want the LTIP's voided until June though

I agree Seamus - is the judge there to pass judegment or just rule on the lagality - if its legal I am sure it would be ratified.

I think the terms then need to be approved by a customer vote, and if the FCA pull their support, they could unregulate Amigo meaning they cannot sell loans, but obviously if they did that there would be little profits for customers to benefit from so its unlikely they do that.

I do not think the courts is the hurdle, or the customers, I think its the FCA and I think they will try and get the best deal for the SOA which might mean 50%+ of profits for maybe more than 3 years.... anything within reason sees 20p + IMO - but upsetting the FCA with a generous LTIP does not sit well at with me - and could lead to further restrictions which we could do without

LTIP shares are new shares not from Treasury, so certainly wold not be related.

To be honest _traveller and others ahve spent week talking about these large trades, which are clealy happening, ubt with no TR-1, they do not seem to be related to anyone buiding or selling a position, so there must be another reason which is probably not going to influence the SP.

Franky - it would be good for Amigo to give us an idea of what percentage is likely to get paid - its the first question the FCA and courts will ask.

It needs to be meaningful of the scheme will not be voted in.

We really do need a positive RNS, I cannot see a TR-1 anymore as I think we would have had one by now.

The whole point is, even the negative media is not suggesting the SOA is not approved, just on much harsher terms and if that happens I still think 20p+ is back on the cards - as it removes the threat of administration.

Of course ML and friends want the best return for consumers and that means SOA with a load of restrictions making it better for the costomers and worse for the company - but ultimately allowing the company to relend and keep going.

As for setting a president - I would say its a good president to set - if a company is about to go under because of compensation payments to previous customers - allowing it to trade out of this and repay customers something, rather than folding - is a better solution. However how do you remove the risk of abuse from companies to set up to make alot of money and end up with a SOA.

Amigo seem to not be that so I still think we'll get the scheme...