Member Info for Jonno41

I'm not convinced a Vinson RNS would move the share price. If he had not posted on here he was going to release an RNS, telling us his name etc., it might have made more of an impact, but a PI going over the RNS threshold would cause less waves than someone no one has heard of buying 3%+ of the company - as with all the recent price movement that could of fired of some good speculation.

IMO, GLA

He clearly holds some shares - maybe a meaningful amount, maybe not - but how could he possibly be watching all of this unfold and not have any skin in the game..... he knows better than us what passing the SOA means for the companys future and how instantly profitable they could become.....

No way will Amigo release any news now before the 19th - positive news will fuel the Amigo haters....

Good news is, they can release as much good news as they want to after next Wednesday. And I suspect there will be plenty.

Of course unoffically they can talk to the II's about what the future will look like, thus all the buying...

All IMHO

But to be fair I like many others on this board have been saying this since 10p...

GLA

I had it in my head he said he'd sell @ 30p, of curse being a master trader, one assumes what he says and what he does are two very different things....

Saying all of that, L2 is looking so strong today, if he stuck all of his 3M shares down @ 30p, I'd expect them to be purchaed within a few minutes...

One things for sure, alot of people will know the status of the vote (as if its ever been in doubt!) and alot of people are buying...

Will he sell @ 30p. If he and his followers do:

a) Their mad
b) It will cause a bit of resistance

GLA

In Auction....

@vinson you did not need to do that but I respect you for proving your investment. It is an extremely high investment for a PI, so I do think it has helped legitmise your list.

I hope we both prosper over the coming week/months.

GLA

One of my favorite hours, enjoying a bottle of Opus 1 with a few friends a few years after visiting the vineyard and bringing a bottle back to the UK.

GLA - if we see a pound I might treat myself to a case ......

Just you wait for a couple and then we’ll be clear by miles!

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/f0d539e1-91c5-4f7c-8abd-35ec6f8efc75

JB buying back - under various guises - is one theory

I look at this really simply. If MM's need shares to fill an order(s), they first drop the price and try and hit stop losses/encourage people to sell. That way they acquire the shares cheaply, and can bring the SP back up to where it was before they dropped it to fulfil the order and make a good margin.

Last couple of weeks, they appeared to not be able to do this, as perhaps not enough people were willing to sell, so plan B is to put the price up, and encourage people to sell at a higher price, of course you then have to fill the order at an even higher price to make your margin, and it feels like thats what we have seen recently - which causes the rise in the morning and again before close (for instance Friday when we saw the price rise to 21p-22p during the day and close at 23p and a load of after hour orders at 23p going through - theory being MM acquire at say 21.5p and sold @23p)

Today, MM's feel they can drop the price, because its gone up so quickly, there are a new set of investors who have bought in sub 20 and are happy to sell for 24p...

The likes of Vinson are trying to get enought shareholders to hold on until the price gets to above £1 because the more that do, the more plan B's will need to be deployed and more the SP prices.

Hold tight everyone (IMO)

Just a theory

DYOR

If I had a penny for the amount of misleading information and ramps on this board......

Its a real shamre the amount of PI's that will be licking their wounds having listened to some of these ramps and believed them abd bought stock of the back of them.

The really important bit is: the ramping of the SP, the talks of Billions of barrels of oil, of takeovers from just about every respected company, from exaggerated calculations of revenue, company buying back their bonds, huge CPR increases, CA geologists having more expertise than Hurricanes etc. would have led to 100's of unaware PI's buying the "most undervalued stock on aim"... Well it seems, the RNS warnings were correct, the is no more oil, CA are just large shareholders with as little power as the rest of us, the board will keep on getting their salaries, the bondholders are being taken care of, and the "most undervalued stock on aim", right now looks as if last week it was "one of the most over valued".

DYOR and please no one mislead, we are all, in reality in the dark, and all posters should try and keep their opinions open and rounded....

Albie - what would you like CA to say - its clear from comms, Hurricane had been ignoring their requests as the situation was so dire, CA decided to look on the brightside and keep buying believing their geologists knew better than the board.

They got it wrong, holders got it wrong, the board are probably hopeless but did warn us all of huge dilution, and CA are probably embarrassed (if I had invested in their fund, I would be livid they kept buying when every RNS told all of us to sell!!). They will of course release something soon where they will say the believe the board to be incompetant (which they are), and that they intend to oppose this process, but can they really do anything to stop it??

Doubt it...

GLA

Ennjoy your evening Traveller and all (hope its a good drop you're drinking!), I am certainly going to enjoy mine :)

95% dilution people, quick 30% might but probably the only the 30% you are going to get is a drop in your investment...
Sorry, but unless there is a twist here we are going sub 1p today/Tuesday.

Actually, I do not think there were that many serial rampers here for a while, every RNS released rampers became less rampant.

This board was more about people who had lost money and blamed the boards incompetance.

Actually after today, it appears the writing had always been on the wall, and the rises over the last few months are actually more surprising than the drops.

I think you might want to consider:

- Overheads
- How much interest Amigo would need to pay on their loan
- Loan Defaults
- Cost of acquiring the customers
- Payment to SOA

If you assume this to be say 50% revenue that's 135 profit.

Valuation of this sort of company is average 15 multiples of EBITDA so £2B is realistic so yes I'd agree with the outcome of your calc - although the £2B would need to be before SOA payment - not sure whether that would affect the valuation or not.. proably not as its short term.

GL

It all depends on the level of risk/reward you are prepared to take.

I own a similar business and I can tell you when you have a working model of this type of company, very little (apart from complaints and bad management) can go wrong. Loans companies will grow and flourish in this environment, very few companies fail and those that do are mainly because of complaints.

The Amigo teams appears to an intelligent commercial team with 2 hurdles in the form of the SOA and the FCA. I am not worried about either becuase the SOA will get approved, no doubt in my mind (not even 1%). The FCA, have not opposed it, the Moneysavingsite as a whole support it, the court have not blocked it, and a competent company and board are in charge of it, they will know how the vote is going and they will win it......

Now, markets forces, mm games, profit takers tc. will not make the ride smooth, but ultmately, there will be an SOA, a return to lending,removal of VREQ and profits to follow.

Saying all of that I need some money right now, so I will probably sell some before the we hit 3 figures, but I am holding on for £2+ with the rest, I suspect it might take time to get there, but lets wait and see.

If a few II's owned 70% of the shares between then, then we'll see less volstility as the upward swing takes place.

All shares come with a risk, and this one is no exception, but I continue to stand firm with my assertations that we will see £1 + again - I've been saying this since 10p.

GLA

OHMark - I am not talking about before May 2020 I am talking about the last 6 months or so, ever since the "Kitchen Sink" end of year figures, there has been no positivity from the board - this board and CA have been positive at times, but the people running the company have not - are they a bunch of idiots? Possibly? Was the goeology too complicated to be accurately intepreted before May 2020 - probably, but did the the information from the company give an impression that anything but something like this was going to happen - no....

It all depends on the contract with the Bondholders, they may be empowered to takeover 100% of the company in a default situation... ridiculous thing is CA, they kept buying and buying, and must of understood the risks along with th rest of us, the last several RNS's highlighted this happening, so no one should be that suprised. I sold out @ around 4p, there was nothing from the company to suggest anything but this scenraio, no director buys, no confident RNS, no improved CPR... waer cut issues, problem with one of the wells.... production depletion.....

Sorry... But who is genuinely surprised??

Gutted for all holders its such a shame more financials were not shared as I think most of us thought there was enough revenue to pay off bondholders and plan for futue work - it was never stated as far as I know that there was not.

To be fair, the RNS's have not been positive at all, so you could argue we have all been warned, coming up with our own calculations involve alot of assumptions which appear to not be accurate.

Now it seems the financials were not shared to avoid the share price dropping, and the like's of CA must be absolutely fuming that they have been kept in the dark - but then again what could Hurricane have said to them and kept the share holder playing field fair...

I still think there is much more oil than has been reported, but I suppose ultimately the CPR had to prove that and when it did not, Bondholder agreements started dictating.....

Such a shame, anyway back from here? I am not so sure.

GLA