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I have been wrong a few times here, but I cannot believe conversations has not been ongoing between the FCA and Amigo with regards to what would be acceptable - it seems so blindingly obvious to me, that the best deal forAmigo's customers is for Amigo to be allowed to continue trading and for the share price to be allowed to rise - and in some way linking the share price rise to creating additional funds for redress. Quite simply the scheme has a 4 year life, and the Mccap is tiny right now, so the company needs time to come out of this situation, build shareholder confidence and share price and then in some way take some value of the higher share price and increase the scheme funds.
It seems simple to me - agree that Amigo will have a rights issue in 2/3 years time for a percentage of Mccap (say 20%) and that 20% goes straight into the fund.
It would be easier to raise funds (far easier than now where it would be impossible) and the value of the RI would be removed from shareholders and given to redress customers, making the scheme fairer than it is now.
This will only happen if there is no enough money in the company to pay off the bondolders who are offered equity in return.
Of course the Mccap is under £40M so there is currently only £40M Equity available - which might not be enough to make a difference.
The are certainly grpounds for appeal - Amigo did not know what the FCA would say until the court date, they can appeal on the basis that they'd like to respond to the FCA's comments...
However, Amigo need to get on with the regulators so negotaiating with them would surely produce a better outcome.... if....
I am sure there will be many more twists before we see this play out.
Who's to say how much collusion there has been between the FCA and Amigo - all we need is a new schemewith "Fairer" terms, the FCA sends a letter of no obligation and the shares go up.
I realise the FCA might insist on a debt for Equity swap which would be catastophic for us, but with so many of the board with shares they will fight that and look for an alternative to support not destroy the share price.
Question is, will the FCA play ball. If they do, we have a recvoery play here still.
One question I do not know the asnwer to, is could the FCA and Amigo agree a compromise to the existing scheme which could them be put in front of the court again for sanctioning without FCA objection or must we start again.
Paid directly into the scheme, agree no LTIPS until after the rights issue and that would have a better chance of getting passed
The point is you’ll never get an investors to invest in a right issue now but you should be able to in 2 years time, plus the share price should be able to move up giving shareholder and redressers a better deal
As I have been saying for the last 3 months, Amigo should of been all about the scheme until it was passed . LTIPs and shareholders braggers should have come after the scheme and not before and that is what upset the FCA IMO
I am veering on the side of a leak - lots of LTH's here, risking losing all their investment should the sanction not pass, and the SP is ony 20% down from resumption of suspension - it feels like there is real confidence here.
Also - must admit I listened to alot of the court hearing and ISA-Investors comments - I could not help but think I and probably most of us, have very little understanding of what defines a case going well or badly. I appreciate the judge did not rule immediately, but hearing the FCA second, does make their comments fresher in our minds, which is perhaps why some of us paniced.
Dicker was simply saying, its SOA or Admistration, the board can decide to put the company into Admin, there is no desire to reprepose a debt consol, RI, restrurcture or a new SOA, the its a binary choice of either accepting the SOA or accepting administration.
It seemed to be, that the judge would be more incentivised to improve the terms of the SOA than anything else, and in that scenario, I'd expect the price to fly (assuming the improved terms was not unreasonable).
Viking good post and yes that makes sense - FCA used the analogy during the case of shareholder value based on a 30p share price - which I think it was or an hour or so - it has always been my concern that too many people were bragging of huge fortunes on the making which is red rag to the FCA with regard to this scheme’s acceptance
I was wondering whether the judge would ask Amigo to agree to a rights issue at some stage of the SOA process so within 4 years - where Amigo gave the money from the issue to the SOA
I imagine that would be something we could live with assuming a good share price in a few years time
What FCA do not seem to appreciate isthe beauty of the scheme is it allows customers, shareholder, Bondholders. Amigo employees, the FCA, FOS and HMRC all to benefit - and the alternative has the exact opposite affect
I assume this is MIC selling to Bybrook? Or to JP Morgan... I think Mark1973 was suggesting Bybrook may need the voting rights, if there was a rights issue...
Seems obsurd with so much uncertainy anyone would buy that amount if shares.. I clearly do not understand the full picture...
So..... If we get an RNS or 2 Monday monring, it might eb aholding one rather than anything else...
Was this why suspension was lifted? To allow OTC trades between 2 II's for a reason I do not understand??
Bought and sold all day, ended up with 40K more shares for the same noney... Which was not my plan, but the predicable drop @ the close put me off selling and losing my daily gains..
So much for a relaxing weekend....
IMO LTIP's should not of been set and the bulletin board braggers shouldn't have - or at least waited until after the court case.
This would of influenced FCA's desicion to turn up IMO.
Some PI's were bragging they'd make millions FFS. What sense is there in that??
A new link has been sent out to stop the share - I agree don't shre but if you've been invited try to join,
The more of "us" the less of "them" - The is no need to assume Debt Camel and others will have VIP access to this session.
GLA - We'll need a bit of luck today
I hope not Lloydyboy!
But if they make it clear what they would conside fair, then that sort of becomes a worse scenrio - the judge is very unlikely not to Sanction the scheme whatever the FCA says because they are unhappy with the scheme based on their guuidelines and the judge will be judging it based on law. And it is lawful - so no reason it will not be sanctioned.
Its a bit like going for planning permission - the architect/builder follows council guidelines - and permission is usually granted, there might be some neighbours who oppose the permission, but if it fits in with the councils regulations its usually permitted.
This scheme is similar, opposed by the FCA on their guildlines, but following the courts guildines, so likely to be sanctioned.
Of course Amigo has to get on with the FCA because they need to be regulated, and not VREQ'ed or fined or deregulared, so IMO appeasing the FCA tomorrow would probably be the best solution of all.
GL