Member Info for JonHarris

If BlackRock are now start to decrease their short position then looks like we are at the tail end of the price decline

My only criticism of the post by Common is that he is stating the CFO has left due to Asos.
However, equally possible is that the CFO had screwed up his job and is being allowed to bow out gracefully, or maybe he just is bored with Asos and wants to start a new career somewhere else, or maybe he has butted heads with the new CEO, or maybe he has a ton of money in the bank and just wants to take time off to enjoy life.

Taking to a friend that works in the electronic sales channel who themselves are friends with some that deals with Asos logistics (yes I know, a friend of a friend told me).
Asos had previously a bad time with returns, however the past few months this has changed due to 2 reasons: A) Asos bringing in their minimum order removed alot of people that would order stuff just to try and return, so there is now more true customers that retain product
B) due to the rise of inflammation, this has also appeared to reduced the amount of customers that order stuff to try then return. So the customers now ordering stock are the ones that have the available funds and generally keep the products.

The net affect is a decrease in products being sent out, but the position affect is that products sent out are less likely to be returned meaning being profits for Asos.

Once again, why I find the whole price decline of this share truly baffling.

Highest price past 12 months is £2.3b

Which is a bargain for ASOS taking everything into account.
Fraser Group are buying MySale to have an established Platform in Australia, so stands to reason that buying Asos does the same for UK/EU/USA

Well it would a M&A project, so he would be debt leveraging to buy Asos, which could be in the region of £2.3b.

However, Mikes own net worth is £5.3b, so he has the resources.

Either Mike buys Asos and finally cements his position as King Fashion, or a USA fund buys them and makes his life very difficult.

If Mike Ashley doesn't buy them, but a large USA fund does that could make a lot of trouble for him. As the USA fund would leverage relationships with USA fashion brands as part of a direct assault in Fraser Group.

Fraser Group just made an offer for MySales after buying a stake in them in June 2022.
I wonder how long until Mike Ashley makes an offer to buy Asos.......

2 days in a row that buys have been way more than sells.
Curry drop is just fear mongering, and short sighted.

If Asos fails then there is little hope for any fashion retailers.

And if Mike Ashley doesn't use this moment to buy Asos, then he is knee capping himself after spending the money to buy isawitfirst, misguided.
Add to this that Fraser Group just offered to buy MySale, so the this is a moment of acquisition and mergers across the fashion retail space.

Doom sayers are being blind to market facts.
Maybe the truth is that the CEO, COO, and CFO are all incompetent and couldn't do the job.
However, one undeniable fact is that due to the size and reach, plus brand recognition of Asos, that this is a golden opportunity for a fund to buy it up for less that £2b and sit on for a couple of years to double their money.
Everything happening in the market is temporary, and when playing with billions the view is more long term.

Also, if anyone has done any research they will see most clothing across the market has increased in price while items are now out if stock or hard to get a hold of. And production costs are going up. So Asos having inventory on hand is a very wise and strong position to be in.

Fair value to buy the whole company £2.3b

If a fund puts a bid in for £2.3b, the the BoD could be forced to accept.
This is exciting, just waiting for the takeover bidding war to start

RevB are a tin pot makeup brand.
Asos are one of the most dominate and established online fashion brands.
They are just not comparable with market reach and opportunity.

As it stands Asos could be acquired for less than £1b, which is insane. Mike Ashley is a smart guy, he will see a massive opportunity here, as it takes about 5 years to really established an online brand, so by buying Misguided, isawitfirst, and Studio Retail, he has removed some direct competition therefore he can capitalise with a dominate market position in terms of driving customers to him and strong arming fashion vendors to better deals.

Fair market value to pick up Asos now while the price is so low would be £2.3b

You can't compare Asos to RevB, different kettle of fish.

Maybe Matt Dunn did a bad job, and he's been allowed to exit gracefully, that could equally be an answer his for departure.

And with regards to Mike Ashley, I could very well see him buy Asos as a way to final solidify his position.
Asos are the jewel in the crown, and he will need to act fast because the sharks will now be circling.

The more I think about it, the more it makes sense that Mike Ashley should buy up Asos now while he can for such a relatively low price.
With acquisition of isawitfirst, Misguided, and also Studio Retail in February, he has consolidated some of the pureplay online. However the jewel in the crown would be getting Asos. All those other brands are lesser in scope and appeal compared to Asos.
Asos being integrated to Fraser Group would be the leading fashion retailer.
He can then offset the 4 online acquisitions with the Fraser Groups physical retail presence of Sports Direct, Flannels, and House of Fraser, for a total channel fashion retail network.
He recently sold off a lot of retail locations to refine their locations, reduce expenditure, and make some money back into cash flow (£205m made from property sale).
The combined business units of all these companies would be refined to find shared service cost reductions.
Fair value for MA to acquire would be rough previous year based on potential recovery, so £2.3b would be a considered acquisition price

Because that last sudden fall created such a large opportunity and that it was genuinely insane to see the company price had gone so far down.

I find it hard to believe this company is worth less than £2b, even at the current market conditions.
If you check my post history I was calling the drop in price insane for 2 months now.

Well, what you just said is the exact reason why Mike Ashley should squire ASOS asap for anywhere in the region of £2.3b, as this would be a massive saving compared to the company worth can be in 2024 and beyond.

Buying now with new CEO, while still in transition mode and share price at the lowest for 10 years, this is a massive opportunity for Mike Ashley to buy Asos and integrate with the Fraser brand combined with international expansion to become one the most dominant fashion retailers.

If one thing can be said of Mike Ashley is that he is a smart opportunist, that has made a fortune from buying at the bottom and having a plan with patience to make a profit.
If he's bought 2.9% of Asos while within mere months of buying isawitfirst and misguided, that is a very large statement to online fashion.

Would be happy to see Mike Ashley put a bid in for £2.4b for ASOS and take it over as part of the Fraser Group.

Asos are the last and very valuable piece to a larger fashion empire that Mike Ashley is building. I would guess that he is smart enough to see a golden opportunity to buy the whole brand essentially cheap compared to previous price and revenue abilities.

Mike Ashley has just acquired ISAWITFIRST.COM and Misguided.
Maybe he is seizing the moment to also take over Asos, within a year Asos could easily be back at £4b and Mike knows this so wants to buy up now with aggressive takeover.
This is a perfect time for Mike as the slow market means he can take his time to combine all the business units to stream line and make more profitable ready for the bulls and when the global markets move back to growth modes.

Mash Holdings (holding company of Mike Ashley), now holds 2.9m shares about 2.9% ownership of Asos.

Given Mike's wealth of knowledge of the fashion industry his investment is a positive sign for moving forward. Any could be an indication of getting ready for a take over bid.

Well, maybe this is Mike's next major play, if he acquires Asos for less than £2b then combined with his other fashion assets he will be able to take a far more dominant position on the world stage.

How much is he will to pay for the brand at top, £3b? Still a bargain to take a dominant position and spring board to large control of USA and EMEA fashion markets. Could become the Amazon of fashion within a year.