Member Info for JonHarris

Big potential here to make a lot of money.
Would love a US fund to just buy up Asos for £2b and make alot of profit from this price point.

Your calculations seem to leave out that they spent alot of money acquiring Top Shop, and they also spent alot of money front loading product to have enough goods to sell the public.

So what looks like a lot of debt really is growth and investment capital being used to leverage a better market position.

Things are looking good for ASOS, and giving a fair market value to the company of £2b is appropriate

Asos are the 3rd highest visited fashion retail website in the UK.

1st is Next. Predominantly their own brand, solid mid to older demographic.
2nd is Marks and Spencer, once again a solid older demographic.
3rd are Asos, with a solid capture of the youth to mid age group, and the age group with generally far higher churn of clothing product due to wear/usage.

Asos has go through a transformation from reseller, to vendor and solid vertical integrated sales channel.
At the same time the market (consumers) have gone through a large purchasing transition from high street to online, and Asos have the dominant position as a digital high street.
With major retail brands from Arcadia Group in the form Top Shop et Al now owned by ASOS, this has created a very large consolidation of market.

Asos are in a fantastic position, if they can reduce debt and giving potential increase of sales later in the year with winter season in the northern hemisphere, and combined with the natural consistent purchase of clothing by populations (similar to utilities and food, clothing is constantly needed).

ASOS generated £3.91 billion revenue in 2021, a 19% increase year-on-year
It posted £190 million operating profit, beating 2020 figures
26 million are active buyers on ASOS, the majority are based in the UK
In 2021, 95.2 million orders were placed on ASOS

Why fashion vendors need a strong reseller like Asos:

In times of market constriction and transaction cost increases, the size of Asos and their ability to move a large amount of product in a profitable way due to scale means that they will be attractive to both vendors and consumers.

The reason for this is that vendors can sell in a lot of product to Asos and get cash back fast, and also not have to deal with the complexity and associated costs of selling direct to consumers. During tough market times this is generally what you tend to see in the consumer world.

As such, Asos have a controlling platform to buy lots of product from vendors to maximise their own margins, and the ability to sell grouped different vendors products to consumers and decrease the transaction costs.

As such, given the current market, asos are in a winning position. It would actually be bad business for a vendor to try go against Asos in the market, as Asos can hard pivot to other vendor products and use cost reductions to capture available purchasing consumers in the market.

Looking at the numbers, brand capture, and engaged market this company MCAP should be closer to £2b

Potential for a takeover bid, £40m is cheap, made could see acquisition for £80m

Worth looking at buy when back at 24 region

Yes cheap. The market for non-alcoholic is growing, plus middle Eastern want good brands so massive market.

The company is set up and has string brand. It's a cheap M&A deal ready to be done and have an established business to yield consistent profits for years to come.

Could see a big USA or Saudi company buy these guys up while cheap.

Current market downturn is temporary (couple of years), so getting the brand and working on global expansion ready for the markets to swing back up.

Either way it show market consolidation, as such still looking at 41 as an entry point for the next 2 months

The difference is I was shown a report by a major fund on alcohol retail and pub sales for the past 2 months, and projected revenue. It looks very dire.

Looks like this is going to nose dive, 41 is now the target

Looks like Europe going back into lockdown, as such that means Marstons will generate more revenue will the people staying in the UK to holiday.

Apologies, I misread a statement.

They are in line to have reduced debt to below £1b by 2025. Which now's days means manageable debt considering the size of the company and revenue.

Either way. £300m to buy this company is good value.

Marstons own 40% of Carlsberg Marstons Brewing Company, that stake is worth about £200m alone.

There has been a decrease in pubs in the UK, this consolidates the market into Marstons favour.

They have decreased debt, and looks like they will be clear around 2025.

The current COVID and inflation situation is at its worst and knocked the market, however post summer this will start to resolve as the central banks will pump the market with more money for lending to drive the economies.

This is now primed for another takeover bid, as £300m to pick up the Marstons estate and their stake in Carlsberg Marstons is very very cheap.

Seeing as now is one of the big trade years, shorts closing position, and floor formed, the upside is massive

I've used 7digital to bug some WAV have have to say it was a good experience.
However, the company seem completely unskilled in turning the business profitable.

A few big buyers could really screw the auto trader's from here.
Finally hit the bottom, massive upside potential.

Company seems to be run by morons that burn cash.

With crypto markets crash, people will be moving money about use fiat currency again, hence the fresh increase in Wise customers.
Secondly, with the growth of cyber crime, using Wise as a payment system and keeping a limited fund is a safe way to avoid criminals accessing your main bank accounts.
And thirdly, as more of the world goes paperless cash, transfering the money for travel or holiday use is growing.

Hence why there are massive orders trading currently, as the big boys load up while the share price is depressed.