Member Info for jointhedots

Yes and Yes to your questions - keep up bigsmoke.

Incidentally, I urge everyone to stop trying to relate OBA throughput to Amerisur performance, it really only correlates over a long period as the ups and down may be due to maintenance, deliberate stocking, build up for testing, problems with down stream clearance, delivery schedules of third party oil, government taking their share in oil as happened recently etc, etc including operational performance.

It really is meaningless taking a short term snapshot, and especially misleading to those new investors who may not have a full grasp of the process and objectives.

Yesterday I posted that PI's where barking up the wrong tree in linking GTE problems and threats to Amer and that flooding may be the real current risk to Amer

I've just read an article (published yesterday) that updates on the effects of the predicted rain - up to a third of the country is apparently inaccessible with extensive landslides - Meta region mentioned as being difficult to travel, hopefully CPO-5 not impacted as it is in one of the wettest places on Earth.

Whatever, I suppose the worst case is that is slows down progress for a few weeks, last year the water destroyed our drilling plan, a bad time to move the drilling rig maybe.

"Colombia knows two rainy seasons that generally last three months. The first one generally lasts from March to June and the second one from September to December."

https://colombiareports.com/landslides-virtually-disconnect-one-third-of-colombia-from-civilization/

PMO up around 4% this morning and most oilies up 2% +

Amerisur rooted at yesterday's close, for me just confirms my belief that Amer is actually hurt by the volatile oil price even if it trends higher. Just another of the aspects many of us find it hard to reconcile, why doesn't a ludicrously low SP respond to any positive stimulus, good news, improving oil price or anything else!.

We need to be rid of the investors, institutions that want out at any price, and if that means a share buyback and even a smaller, stronger company, the sooner the better - the currently situation is ludicrous and hurting everyone except Directors and the company's bearish enemies

Recovering nicely, but Amerisur never really follows the uptrend simply takes a fresh hit as it retraces - we really need stability so I actually hope oil does not rise too far.

WRT the talk yesterday about the troubles of GTE, I think some of you are really reading too much into it - they operate further East than Amer in ELN country.

It's like assuming the troubles of one British region automatically effect another, it's ridiculous, Amer may have their own social troubles blow up from time to time (far less likely is rebel activity), it's the nature of Colombia.

There are still strikes, blockades, kidnappings, murders and pipeline attacks - but distances in Colombia or any other Jungle location are totally different from the UK, 30miles may be near impossible for locals to travel without being vulnerable to government intervention.

Until Amerisur report a problem think is fair to assume there isn't one, to be honest I was more worried about the onset of the rainy season and a recent weather report predicting 2 weeks of severe flooding across Colombia. Lets hope our team has learned their lessons and prepared for it.

The management deal will local issues, that's what we pay them for, from the recent production figures IMO it's clear there is no problem.

ONGC have just released a new tender doc, for drill sample testing.

Not very interesting on the face of it, but surely you only tender for testing support if you intend a decent drilling programme!

By the time the tender process is complete Indico-2 will most likely to be complete - so can we deduce there is a significant programme planned thereafter as the contract runs for a year and is extendable.

The other aspect (maybe I'm reading too much into it) is the contract includes sampling associated with coring of side-tracks - what side tracks? Loto-1 to utilise the same pad maybe so they can check that it wasn't simple to bad sealing around the pipe which caused the high water cut. I believe Loto is a decent size if they can bolt it on as the BoD suggested a few years ago, just a thought.

We cold have 3 winners on the trot next if they are not ready (re-evaluated information) to drill a new structure, I guess they'll drill a couple of Indico wells and a Mariposa-2 as they have contracted for permanent production facilities at Mariposa it makes perfect sense to drill there.

What would 3 more wells flowing at anything like the current production do to the SP? Probably nothing. lol

Whatever, I feel a winning streak coming on, if they decide to drill another structure I'm sure it will be with high confidence there is likely to be oil there.

Gran Tierra released a very comprehensive operational update today, most interesting IMO where there confidence that the block they bid on in Colombia are highly prospective and all they have to do now is match the bid of any other counter-offer to have first refusal. They are having trouble with locals in Put 7, though blockages not aimed at them it's impacting (the further West you travel in Put the more unruly the local become.

Perhaps the most interesting point is their announcement of beating record drill times, I know is will vary from field to field an be related to depth etc but I can't help feeling we (ONGC) may over complicate things and even Amerisur (the snail of Colombia in Comparison to the likes of Geo Park) could speed thing up if operator The contracting and decision process seem so slow and cumbersome with no performance improvements to speak of.

"•Record drilling results achieved in Acordionero: the AC-40 and AC-41 wells were drilled in 9.5 and 7.4 days respectively, each a consecutive record short drilling time for the field"

GamblingAddict - had a bit of spare time yesterday, thanks for comment.

We really don't know what is at either site, more wells are required at both sites to determine the ultimate reserves - bear in mind we now have 4 oil discoveries in CPO-5 if you include Lot-1 and Sol-1 which could both be put into production.

I'm not convinced they really got to grips with Loto-1, another operator has just recently announced a successful well which if memory serves me right is no better than Loto-1 where high water cut was the problem not lack of oil.

CPO-5 will be seen as prolific just like Llanos 34 if we have success with the drill bit in the next year or so, I believe ONGC will keep their foot on the peddle now, and Amerisur should be gathering in very significant revenues. All shaping up nicely as long as Indico -1 flows reasonably well.

The results press release mentions CPO-5 finds as a highlight of it's year

"•Achieved second consecutive success in Block CPO-5, Colombia. The well flowed at self-flow rate of appx. 4,000 BOPD with oil of 35.9° API. Importantly, first success in the same Block CPO-5 well where commercial oil of 40° API was discovered in 2017, is currently producing more than 4000 bopd. With above two wells, current production from CPO-5 is more than 8000 bopd."

Someone queried ONGC production figure of 8000bpd a couple of weeks ago as I recall, well according to the above Mariposa production has been stepped up to over 4000bpd (something AMER wanted) and combined OVER 8000bpd. On the basis of that Indico-1 is still suppressed as it had even better flow rates - perhaps that will be stepped up soon possibly when a long term test is approved.

If Mariposa can do 4000bpd (they tendered for production facilities recently so maybe that's to facilitate) I suspect Indico-1 could easily do 6000bpd+

http://www.ongcvidesh.com/ongc-videsh-declares-fy19-financial-results/

Sorry to correct you, whilst I agree with most of what you say ONGC are not new to Colombia, they have been active for many years and drilled wells on CPO-5 before we showed up.

More significantly, they are in partnership the Sinopec, one of the world's largest companies never mind the oil sector. They have been awfully quiet, yet China has declared an interest in Colombian oil. They are yet another outfit that could take out Amerisur in CPO-5 without any stress. ONGC bid for a block in the latest Auction - who would be their preferred partner I wonder Amerisur or Sinopec (SIPC).

"SIPC's entry into the Colombian market dates back to 2006, when SIPC, together with OVL (ONGC Videsh Limited, a state company from India), acquired OMIMEX Colombia Ltda., A private oil company of North American origin. This acquisition gave rise to Mansarovar Energy Colombia Ltda. (MECL), a joint venture company that currently has ten hydrocarbon fields that are in production. In addition, it is a shareholder in a 189-kilometer pipeline, which runs from Velásquez, in the department of Boyacá, to Galán in the department of Santander.

There is currently an investment event taking place in London with everyone that is anyone from the government is there hob-nobbing to procure investment. The current licence auction is part of one session as is networking time

I would be amazed if GC isn't there, this is just up his street and maybe some reluctant investors may even take a shine to the Amerisur proposition.

https://www.prnewswire.co.uk/news-releases/colombia-to-showcase-investment-opportunities-in-london-831237445.html
https://www.investincolombia.com.co/colombia-inside-out/london/agenda

The link (from yesterday) provides more on the licence auction, most interesting is that they are planning to expand offer another 38 blocks this year, ANH say August release - plenty of scope for Amerisur in that now they have cash I guess. Perhaps that's why Oxy have paid upfront in anticipation of deal approval.

Would be good to go after new blocks in the Put region with Oxy as partner.

There is also round-up of Colombian action including Amerisur's RNS.

https://www.bnamericas.com/en/news/colombia-to-expand-permanent-offer-of-ep-blocks

There are several possibilities that could be transformational for Amer in the medium to long term, Oxy deal latest cited. However, IMO any change is more likely to be a slow build and the only block in the near term that looks likely to make a significant difference is CPO-5.

Plat activity is only going to hold the fort whilst other blocks come to fruition, there is not going to be anything exciting, more likely disappointing.

IMO the next couple of months are going to point the way to a step change in performance, if Sol-1 contributes even a couple of hundred barrels and Indico-2 is a success as expected then by the time the result is known the production from CPO-5 could have almost doubled and exceed Plat with a third well in the Indico structure started to give real impetus.

IMO Amerisur shareholders have much to look forward to over the summer, pity the oil price action is not supportive but who knows when that will change - maybe it's all coming together at long last.

Amer, Oxy an ONGC (who have already submitted bids) have until the 26th June to submit higher bids.

Amer could partner up with either company, now we have more cash to do so, we shall see.

Interesting that they have given us the cash upfront! Maybe there is a purpose in that move.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/colombia-oil/six-companies-made-initial-best-offers-for-colombia-oil-contracts-idUKL2N23L1H0

Niles - you question if you are missing something- yes you are.

Other posters have listed some benefits, but most important factor of all is the name of the partner.

Oxy would be the partner of choice for any Colombian operator, swapping Vetra for them is a major step forward as is keeping Gran Tierra out.- the capital we were due to spend on the block (buying and exploring) can now be directed to acquiring value asset or accelerating development possible with Oxy as partner. Hopefully we become the partner of choice for Oxy, a world class oil major, in Colombia

The door has just been opened to a wealth of opportunities, including the blocks currently on offer in the Llanos.

We've got a can do partner with deep pockets, massive experience and a proven history of investing in Colombia - they'll not drag their heels like ONGC, more likely to put a bullet up the backside of some lazy partner executives.

The endorsement for Amer is massive news - we have now shown 2 major operators in Colombia believe our assets offer great potential.

Looks like we are preferred partner for Oxy and can avoid them having to pay a premium for blocks.

Maybe that process will be repeated as they are now building a large interest in Put

Lots to think about - good IMO, though we'll have to wait for Sol result its process there is oil potential all over the place.

Apparently oil spiked this morning because it is rumoured that 2 oil tankers have been damaged in the Gulf of Oman. at least 1 hit by a torpedo - I don't know if it's true but if so it's a huge escalation

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2019/jun/13/uk-house-prices-brexit-oil-price-tanker-fire-arcadia-green-business-live

We talk of market sentiment and Colombia not being favoured - Well our peer in Llanos, Geo Park, seems to make a nonsense of that.

They are actually a favourite of mine "very impressive", they beat Amerisur hands down on drilling success, speed and success rate - a takeover/merger by them would be better than Gran Tierra IMO.

They are apparently the third largest operator in Colombia, behind Occidental and Ecopetrol (national oil co) and virtually ALL the success has come from Llanos 34, the play our management and others often cite as prolific and suggest CPO-5 is in the same play. They are now a $1bn company, but like Gran Tierra started off a small outfit like Amerisur, actually later than Amerisur as I recall.

Anyway to the point of the post, there is all to play for in CPO-5 and the potential in enormous, as on the back of LLanos 34 Geo Park have apparently been the best performing oil company on the NYSE (not one for laggards) over the past 2 years, beating the likes of Exxon and Shell and Chevron.

They have returned 250% share price growth whilst Amerisur have delivered a massive drop of well over 50%.

Yet our bod claim success, how so? I won't dwell on that but point out what massive latent potential may lie at CPO-5, could IMO be bigger than everything else combined, and so in Amerisur's SP, could easily double on success at Indico-2.

The article is well worth a read to envisage the potential we are playing for - don't be fooled by the large multi-country asset base of Geo Park, their success is based on Llanos 34.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4269801-geopark-best-performing-nyse-oil-company

This one for Gas treatment at Mariposa and a contingent site, Indico?

Nice to see can provide free power on-site and presumably less environmental impact than flaring. It follows on from a tender for permanent production facilities at Mariposa and presumably Indico will have to wait until full approval of production.

I suppose it indicates they are expecting production to last many years.

Oil was locked in a very tight price band for weeks but is now moving very quickly and erratically - up around $2/bl today and now retraced to around $1/bl up.

The market really does not know what to do, there are strong possibilities for weakening demand balanced by potential for a significant disruption to supply. With the US in the shape of Donald Tump damaging trade and Iran and others desperate to use oil to protect themselves financially.

The volatility is extremely damaging to Amer and the sector as a whole, IMO we have a better chance of recovery in the SP if the oil price settles (even at a lower price) and investors can then assess prospects better.

Oh, and as for Teresa May's announcement for zero emissions by 2050, what a load of BS - both she and I ill most likely be dead by then even if the planet thrives. IMO it is pathetic (though often done) to set targets for someone else and carry on regardless yourself - it is an absolutely meaningless and cynical target.

However in the medium term the it doesn't help sentiment but may also lead to the cancellation of some oil field projects, so strangely could lead to a rising oil price in years to come in other big economies follow suit.