Member Info for jointhedots

Nothing wrong with rewarding the staff, but Wardle and Harrison are greedy ******** who are responsible for creating value for shareholders and are ultimately responsible and should be accountable for the trashed SP.

Rewarding themselves for failure yet again - this alleged greed was the reason cited in the press for Rex Harbour selling up. They have again scored a win from the ongoing suffering of shareholders, they are not aligned with shareholders until they have finished filling their boots, and are benefitting big time.

Angry doesn't begin to describe it.

the same issues, posting reasons why the market has got it wrong, questioning this and that.

I posted about this a few sessions ago, but we return to thrashing about in the weeds time and time again and fail to fully recognise the underlying cause of our severe demise.

Bay hit on it in his post "This Co will turn, when Calamity John stops waxing LYRICAL and gets output right - we will grow"

Missed targets, year after year yet claiming outstanding success is the MO of the company - that's the underlying problem not one specific thing and everything else fades into insignificance if the market doesn't trust the company to deliver operationally.

Guys, it's been years of this, claiming success after missing targets, they are specialists, grand masters, in spinning a yarn for shareholders and JW needs to deliver, had our partner not delivered in CPO-5 the last couple of years would have been seen as disastrous, absolutely pathetic operationally, so operationally the period has been a DISASTER as CPO-5 was not Amerisur's work programme.

Production has crumbled (remember the chart showing production rising to near 20000bpd), what's going on? and exploration has been almost non-existent.

There was a lot of criticism the Rex Harbour for selling and suggestions his company was taking to low a price for it's shares and some said they were making a mistake - well to the best of our knowledge their shares were all sold at well above the current SP.

So not so dumb after all, Rex responded to what allegedly was ill feeling at the BoD's approach to a bad year including feathering their nests - well here we are again and IMO shareholders need to put pressure on the BoD to show them all is not rosy in the cottage as the smug comments from our glorious, highly paid, leaders would suggest.

I voted against the reappointment NH as finance director last year and urged others to do so, I didn't expect to win, simply send a message to ruffle the feathers of our directors, unfortunately I was in a very slim minority we are in for another very rough year of under-performance.

No one appears to believe JW will get more than about half the planned wells drilled that are planned this year even at this stage - isn't that a ludicrous, pathetic and disgraceful situation, yet various shareholders simply posted their low ball thoughts on how many wells will drill recently without any apparent concerns. Just think about that, you don't believe the annual plan at the end of Q1, so do you really not understand why the SP is trashed? It's nothing to do with intrinsic value or potential, it's realisation of that potential, beyond the BoD maybe?

Please don't come at me with strategic stuff, that a totally different aspect.

Good results or at least what everyone expected - we have been short changed on production but no more than expected yesterday.

Everything looks rosy going forward yet again (if only we could rely on them to deliver this year, they've been a bunch of serial under-achievers against their own plans for years), yet again claiming success having fallen well short. Same old, same old.

Anyway, the things I (and I reckon almost everyone else) look for initially is any new nasties, and on the face of it the results look clean - so we can now forget them and move forward. GC highlights social issues as a problem last year, that is more truthful about what went on last year than previously stated IMO.

On the positive side:

- A meaningful Profit. (anything under a couple of $m can be contrived IMO).
- Potential to go for additional assets in Colombia, now confirmed they are considering (potential Oxy partner).
- Improving production and a clear path forward.
- More positive sounding on a future potential dividend (not that I want one but demonstrates confidence)
- Mariposa flow rate after 1 year is excellent and Indico look like an absolute Gem that will pay for itself in months)
- Further transport cost savings.
- No NEW nasties (shocks which kill off any optimism are what I fear most e.g Cash Raise, write off, unknown production problem etc decimates so many AIM stocks on the results).

All to play for now that's out of the way and those on the Bear side have had their ammunition taken away.

Further on this topic, the big players are definitely re-entering Colombia as well as existing operators scrambling to take up blocks. usually with Ecopetrol as a partner - involving the national oil company probable eases the process.

Parex took a couple of blocks on the other day, $100m investment commitment as I recall, but today it is being widely reported Exxon (biggest listed company of all oilies).

That is a major endorsement, even though they are going offshore, it shows that money is flowing in and apparently they are going to spend $700m with partners, fellow oil major Repsol and Ecopetrol.

Amerisur have a huge acreage position which will look attractive to some operators who also want a share of the action, IMO positive pressure will mean the days of a sub 20p SP are numbered, I will be surprised if still languishing here in H2.

We just need a little more success with the drill bit.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ecopetrol-repsol-colombia/exxon-repsol-and-ecopetrol-sign-deals-for-colombia-offshore-oil-exploration-blocks-idUSKCN1RF243

Having said that, that's not to say our BoD would not consider a lucrative offer.

In the presentation they clearly recognised the likely end scenario with this statement:

"Strategic asset portfolio built, attractive to a new country entrant or existing player"

There can be only one conceivable reason for that statement alongside the value creation information $295.3m and 888.2 million tonnes of resources.

IMO, predators are invited to submit offers but they must make sure it reflects value for Amerisur shareholders (we know what we've got and can wait for a good price!).

I've posted recently about the big players returning to Colombia, a few hundred million $ to them is small change, have patience, 2020 would likely be a good year to put the for sale sign up as the £ will likely have dropped by then if we pull out of EU, the currency difference could add 20% to the sale for UK residents and success in CPO-5 etc could boost the SP dramatically.

All is still to play for, the current SP is simply ludicrous but we'll have to put up with it for the time being.

Lets be realistic - No one is taking over Amerisur on the cheap, at anywhere near the current SP, it just won't happen unless something significant changes.

Most of us have paid significantly more for our shares than the current SP and would reject any offer in light of the current potential and distressed price. The last institutional placing was at 25p a few years ago and the rationale for their investment remains valid.

A small proportion of shareholders are happy to trade at the current SP, IMO many of the shares traded are the same one sloshing about (hence my support for a low key share buy-back), but the vast majority are firmly held - those that suggest a low-ball takeout are being silly, even as things are it would probably take near 30p to have a chance and as good news start to flow this year it will start to look silly.

Low-ball buy-out offers come in when companies are financially distressed, by no stretch of the imagination are Amerisur distressed, when we are clearly opportunistic asset buyers in the market.

Potential bidders know the routine, what succeeds and what doesn't and will not launch a ridiculous bid, I'm positive some companies would like Amerisur's assets, but remember a failed bid would hurt their business unless it was one of the oil Majors. Any attempt to take our assets is more likely to be via a bid for individual or groups of blocks IMO.

Looks like Aguila-1 and Sol-1 are being brought forward in the drill programme, according to our February presentation it would take 3 months to get Aguila-1 ready with the planned drilling in Q4 for both wells - IMO that is essentially unscheduled but sometime in 2019.

So I'm pleased to see, ONGC have just released the tender docs for preparation of the Aguila-1 site, so perhaps Sol-1 is to be drilled shortly, as it is drill ready and Aguila-1 thereafter.

Should increase the excitement level if confirmed, we need something to cheer shareholders - also raises the possibility that the elusive second rig could materialise, sorely needed as progress is so slow it's like watching paint dry.

http://www.ongcvidesh.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Tenderdoc-Civil-Works-Aguila.pdf

for our little outfit in the right place at the right time.

For the last few days some posters have agonised over, why, why, why the SP has crumbled so badly over something relatively insignificant in the scheme of things and pointed out loads of positives. Non of us can answer definitively, it the way it is and so we must live with it and bear the pain to eventually enjoy the gain.

IMO we have had more than enough of a mourning period it has lasted long enough and we should now focus on the future, there is so much great potential the BoD would have to be incompetent beyond comprehension not to deliver some success this year with the potential for game changing news. Cheer up guys.

As commented this morning the oil price is very favourable, we already have sufficient assets to keep us busy and expand for years with international partnerships that should be the envy of most operators. Who knows what's to come, BP maybe! lol

The big operators now appear to be moving in on Colombia, fortunately we bought at low prices when no one was interested, Shell, Noble and now according to the link below super-giant Exxon and Anadarko are about to sign deals. Sinopec are already in country and outfits like Hess with multi-billion investment budgets are sniffing around.
Not to mention various S American outfits. Sure some of them are interested in offshore, but according to JW when Oxy where looking at partnering with us there where other operators actually offing more (without the same in-country experience), who where they?

The article actually about the new Colombian licenceing system and has some great quotes from the head of the licensing authority, including comments on their new bidding system for block, It will run permanently, allow applications for any available blocks, be attractive to SMALL operators (Amerisur) and includes 50 identified blocks - that's a lot to choose from.

In light of all this Macro stuff I believe the potential for Amerisur is massive and they will find it difficult to screw up this year.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-27/colombia-sees-gain-in-venezuela-s-pain-with-unique-oil-bids-plan

Wolster - I agree with some of that, but your reasoning is a little skewed.

It is not appropriate to drill a few low risk potentially high production holes in light of the new evidence but not to boost the SP, simply because the model/interpretation of the area needs to be revisited and refined and it's a good use of the time.

Lets not forget this is virgin territory with huge potential. so we need to push on all fronts and not bin anything. Don't forget ONGC have been tendering for production infrastructure so going hell for leather to increase production may be futile - as it turned out drilling the latest well severely impacted production from Indico, it would be a real smart idea to sort that problem out before drilling 2 more wells.

"boom & bust these explore the edge stuff" - come on, you know better than that, it wasn't boom or bust and if anyone thinks that then you don't understand the business proposition or what happened, perhaps help explain the silly reaction. The partners simply misunderstood/interpreted the Seismic by the looks of it and wrt SP it is just an over-reaction.

I don't think we are in any danger of a low-ball takeover, if someone wants us they'll have to pay a very hefty premium even to be considered - I never worry about that, institutions stumped up a lot of cash at 25p/share in the last major capital raise and they'll want some profit after holding for several years as will the BoD.

Further to my previous post on the quality of the RNS, I also was pleased to read their explanation for the well:

"The Company analysis indicates that the formation was encountered deeper than prognosis and the well was located in an area without closure." and "The Calao result has no impact on the previously disclosed CPO-5 reserves for year-end 2018."

Basically the LS3 strata wasn't where they expected it and so presumably below the closure, that leads to a few other obvious conclusions.

First the interpretation of that section was wrong and presumably had the horizon been different so could the outcome, so the principle of a major new play is still very much alive. As they say they need to take another look at the model.

Then of course for the LS3 to be lower the faulting at that point must have a greater downthrow or the dip more severe, so I assume they need to establish where the faulting leaves the LS3 in other areas and pick the high spots. Bear in mind they, initially tried to drill from West to East to find oil and only changed strategy after muted success and realised North to South was the trend - they're still trying to crack the code as Geo-Park have done in Llanos 34.

Does this also effect the interpretation of the area around Mariposa, perhaps mis-interpretation of horizons means there could be more potential in that area.

Finally there is no mention of Water contact, presumably they found it and that should, I guess tell then a background level - does that help with Indico if it was low? and if they can work out the faulting will it help advise where to look - Pavo Real-1 does require more consideration but it is separated from Calao by the Column of oil is Indico and presumably least 2 faults, so IMO all is still to play for.

IMO based on the new evidence theta right to play it safe (though the cost of the well is low shareholder do panic), ultimately the information could turn out be a blessing in disguise if it turns out to help them "crack the code" as Malcy often says

Now over $68/barrel and looking strong, so whatever the SP Amerisur's income is around $5000/day higher is for ever $1 rise.

If they pull their finger out and start to accelerate operationally instead of simply making strategic moves (important though they are) then the market may start to believe.

When everyone (or most) were drooling about CPO-5, I think someone actually said Plat was history, I pointed out that the success of CPO-5 masked a poor operational performance, now it has come back into sharp focus.

If we were drilling multiple prospects, or had specific dates (say a month) when drilling is planned to start or other event are planned then we could invest with more confidence - Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4 or H1, H2 is IMO simply an aspiration not an operational plan (at best strategic) as it has proved so vividly in previous years it's meaningless. The chunky bar charts mean sweet FA unless backed up with proper plans and we've seen little evidence of that.

On the bright side to JW's credit, I believe the RNS just released is by far the best I've seen from this company in a long, long time on Plat - it explains what they are planning, exactly what we debate endlessly on this BB with little guidance now we have some. It's a pity that it took a duster for JW to realise the value of informing us clearly what the plan is. My message to JW, please don't go back into your shell, the RNS was great, very informative, the SP hasn't fallen because you shared operational information.

Now JW, try sharing the potential or lack of it WRT the Northern part of the block and the only new well from last year we drilled -is it producing or likely to lead to further wells? Please don't just sweep it under the table and hope we forget if was to be the focus (more so than CPO-5) of future expansion with 6 wells/pad. The significance of that well far exceeded the latest.

I posted this morning to point out is wasn't the end of the world to have the well come up short in the grand scheme of things - but to be honest I realised it's a waste of time trying to reassure anyone. We all know or should know this is a temporary setback, I had better things to do than explain the obvious.

Unfortunately, illogical reaction is simply par for the course and in spite of the best efforts of various posters today to explain I doubt they got through to anyone. I decided not to bother, IMO if you're not happy and can't wait, sell and take the hit

Those that are for off are best gone ASAP even if it brings down the SP, in the long run all will settle down and the SP fully recover and hopefully move up substantially, unless you are resilient and patient this share is not for you, good luck in finding a better proposition.

blt2 - your comment
"have i misread this bit? Indico-1 being choked back (from around 1,100 BOPD.
from Indico-1X current choked natural flow production of 5,130 BOPD is this a different well?"

I don't know what bit you don't understand. But it is the same well mate, the production is the SET level that ONGC have decided to produce at while they test and await approval for long-term testing/ get infrastructure and facilities in place, definitely not indicative of it's ultimate capability.

WRT to the 1100bpd, that's net to Amerisur. Relax, don't worry yourself where there is no problem.

treasures - I believe the next well possibly 2 wells will be best drilled in the Indico structure as the production boost should now make is very attractive to ONGC. Clearly they have not yet decided on a course of action (JW says we have advised to do so) and that is almost certainly the reason why the RNS has taken so long to materialise.

"It is important to ensure that we fully re-evaluate Pavo Real-1X before committing to drill, and Amerisur has recommended to the Operator that drilling focus should return to the Indico structure for the moment, with the drilling of Indico-2, a low risk appraisal well."

ONGC are not great on driving events at any pace but they will have to act quickly because the rig operator will want paying if it stands idle or we may lose it - so I think we will have news soon and as soon as the drill bit starts turning again the duster will be forgotten.

WRT management buying - they can't and they can't pass comment (or do interviews to clarify) as they are in a closed period prior to the results.

The drop is more than I expected and totally illogical (stop losses triggered?) , Near 13p (now recovered slightly) is plain stupid based on the news

It's an opportunity for MMs more than shareholders - they can trigger stop losses and panic T traders this morning - it will also advise if there truly is a buyer accumulating as some have suggested, today's news will not deter any institution of long term investor.

No doubt we're in for a rough ride this morning though.

Disappointing, but keep it in perspective, it was never part of the original plan and an effort to find the extent of the oil around Indico targeting just a small patch of oil. If they are now going for the more likely high producers then that's a better course of action.

The SP is likely to drop with the knee jerk reaction typical of PIs , but in truth it should not as the news from Plat is very positive and the SP is ridiculous to start with, nothing is lost and this should help identify where to look next. I shall be doing nothing today. Some might get a chance of cheap shares but I'm sure we'll lose a few BB posters who haven't got the patience.

Not Bull mate - just the way it is.

The MMs and presumably some other players in the market have a nuch broader overview and most likely much deeper pockets than you or I.

So your view of what is logical or Bull is based on an ill-informed viewpoint.

That applies to us all unfortunately, I guess an analogy would be playing cards with someone that knows what you and all other players hold, has extra cards and can stop the game any time they want without loss.

We're stuffed, in terms of beating them (like beating the bookie) but IMO that doesn't mean we can't make money as long as we realise the game is crooked.

Incidentally, you don't know how many sells/buys have occurred of are pending, the MM's do, so they can take a longer view when moving the SP.

Finally, a mistake many, many PI's make is quoting buys as a reason for a SP rise - on the face of it yes it should, but there is a major flaw in the logic - the buys are only going through because the SP is at this level an if the MM's raise the price the buys dry up and sell take over and we are right back where we started or worse. It needs buyers prepared to pay more, the PI's that complain are rarely the ones prepared to do so .

We need to wait

rhodi - it may well be 3000bpd or over, but equally it could be lower or zero.

Though substantial production would be very welcome, we need to put this into perspective or risk being disappointed, most wells in the llanos don't flow at such high rates, as I've pointed out before this is not a key (make or break) production test and most importantly should provide great geological information irrespective of flow - perhaps advising decisions on future maybe as yet undisclosed wells.

The seemingly protracted period in announcing the outcome of the well has thus far had no effect on the SP and that's the way it's best staying, if investors put undue weight on this well that may change as nerves take a toll.

I suppose there are a whole bunch of possible reasons why the RNS has failed to meet the time scale expected by so many investors, I take comfort from the fact the SP has been stable - no one dealing in the shares appears to have any clue of the drilling outcome. If it turns out to be 3000bpd or over, fantastic, if it turns out to be half that it can still be fantastic (on a par with llanos34).

"And jtds just because a ceo says they won't raise cash doesn't mean they wont. He also said there would be no more acquisitions, btw"

Wait - How dare you criticise me. lol

Seriously, you are barking up the wrong tree, I never said the company wouldn't raise money, I simply explained why it was illogical based on what we know and the CEO had said we didn't need to. In fact the crux of my argument was that the company had headroom in terms of an untapped loan facility and cash, even if at some time in the future they need to supplement their cash reserves they have more palatable options.

What is frustrating is that every time there is good news that involves capital expenditure someone feel the need to raise the spectre of a placing, it's so predictable even if there is no justification, you may not have said it but that's where the conversation was heading to play on illogical fears.

WRT to your point " no more acquisitions", I recall him saying something in response to a question but not in the context you state, it was a qualified statement (I don't even need to check) as are all our BoD's statements leave open the option to do what they want - I wouldn't expect anything else, otherwise they constrain their actions or may even give away insider information simply by not answering briskly. They are not amateurs, so looks like we're in agreement "the BoD will do whatever they feel is appropriate".

Wait - interesting perspective from you and for the record I don't think you'e a numpty, however, your assumptions are simply that and no better than mine or others with more optimistic viewpoints -so we debate.