Member Info for jointhedots

easyp - I think AIM manipulation and security are the only currently significant risks from your list.

WRT manipulation, I would urge shareholders to exercise caution, this share like many others on AIM does strange manoeuvres that defy logical at times, make sure you don't get caught out by MM games.

For instance the SP this morning opened with a wide spread and it crossed my mind that the MM's could capture stop losses to acquire shares if they made a sudden change. Also as we rise they could do the same on stop losses set too tightly. Each to his own in respect to this, simply be aware your adversary includes the MMs as they want to make money from you and generally do to great effect.

I would add to the list of negatives, my view is that the biggest negative is the BoD's historical failure to deliver on their operational plans - our BoD's work programme in Plat is suddenly practically zero - what has happened to the T and U sands for instance. No problem if it's a non-starter, But I hate companies simply ignoring issues and moving on to some new initiative - the new stuff is great but IMO they need to advise on Plat

BumblingFool - I think allowing 40ish days is about right, though the well should in reality take approximately 30days - I think JW told one of his recent interviewers 30 days and 10 test. Geo Park are the best in terms of speed, cost and efficiency of locating oil ONGC are partnered with them and should become more and more effective as operators.

We must not get too hung up on timing though, finding oil is all that really counts. JW has said a lot recently, loose tongued drunk on success and absolutely content with ONGC's approach if his statements are to be believed - I believe him, ONGC now seem to be fully committed.

The SP is disappointing as JW seems perplexed so am I, but the underlying health of the company is excellent and the prospects have had a major boost with the Oxy deal and Indico well - we are is great shape and I believe irrespective of the currently drifting SP we will soon be saying goodbye to sub 20p prices and hopefully even past 30p if the flow of good news continues.

Incidentally, it has been reported that oil prices in some places are rising faster/higher than the benchmark crude blends would suggest, and an article cites Castilla blend heavy oil (Colombia ) as an example of the trend with high demand from Asia and N America. Though it doesn't impact most of our production I assume our new production from Indico is being sold locally to blend with heavy production (as Mariposa is rumoured to be but contract based on Brent minus a factor) until a contract is set up so good local prices must be helpful (can't hurt if it get closer to Brent and away from volatile prices WTI).

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/021111-castilla-blend-bid-offered-on-dated-brent-related-basis-sources
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/colombian-castilla-vasconia-crude-prices-hit-highest-since-sep-2017/

Reuters have reported on the new licencing and they in fact appear to be NEW areas, 18 of which are onshore and these are additional to the off shore offerings that have been on and off for a year or two.

"The areas listed for reactivated bidding include 18 onshore areas - most in the country’s south eastern plains region - and two offshore blocks in the Caribbean.

Perhaps more interesting to Amerisur is the option of a pre-emptive expression of interest.

https://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFL1N2000NQ

Something new yet again, JW says (4m 35+ seconds in) we are cash flow positive down into the low $20s.

That is a massive new assurance that we don't need to worry about the fluctuations of the oil price, as it will kill off practically all competition before destroying Amerisur.

My feeling is that the interview is massively upbeat for sa normally reserved guy, JW's comments are particularly orientated to financial aspects and I get the feeling all this PR is aimed at impressing new investors rather than pacifying shareholders as has been the case in the past - basically IMO they are well and truly on the front foot at long last.

They no longer need the $50/barrel base to fund the work programme, they can look to expansion organically above and beyond what has already been announced without too much stress and I suppose it would do no harm now to secure access to a far larger bank facility. Then the speculation could really run riot. lol

Debt is good as long as the company can service it and employ the money effectively to create value - almost all companies use it.

JP2000 - I agree, simple calculations are misleading, actually impossible IMO.

It is complicated, especially when someone mentions profit - it is always less than the potential, usually by a massive amount.

Revenue is easier, with profit determined by loads of factors including investment levels which can wipe out the whole lot - IMO it's not worth bothering to try to work it out as in any case I would much sooner the company plough cash back in to expansion than banking it.

I guess JW would have multiple objectives so I wouldn't rule out some agreement for upscaling with ONGC.

There is even a CEO session and a quote from the Colombian oil minister

"Columbia offers a growing market that is strategically placed in order to facilitate the regions transactions, businesses and a platform with more than 16 commercial agreements that allow investors a preferential access to third markets’, said President of National Hydrocarbon Agency of Colombia Mr. Luis Miguel Morelli."

If we wanted additional licences he's a good guy to talk to - incidentally when I posted about the new licencing round the other day someone commented about new offerings being offshore, that's correct but companies can express interest in new on-shore areas and some licence areas (even close to existing sites) may have been surrendered. I believe Amerisur even surrendered one in another Basin (can't quite recall) and another operator surrendered one near the Putamayo cluster last year - if doesn't mean they are necessarily duff .

Apparently all the great and the good from India's political class and oil industry are attending the event and energy Ministers and officials from many other countries - apparently ONGC are sponsoring the event and appear to be at practically every session co-presenting

I would suspect JW is taking the opportunity to present the case for Amerisur - I also suspect the Ecuadorians are there as ONGC have been looking at/discussing opportunities there in the last year or so.

I hope GC is backing up JW practically, I can't think of a better place for him to mingle with cricket buddies and push the case for Amerisur - if not why are we paying him.

https://www.petrotech.in/showHappening/5

Apparently, there has been an oil conference in India which finishes tomorrow, ONGC are a major participant with the oil minister commenting about potential incentives for them to invest in marginal gas field - exactly what I was talking about yesterday - that the government are trying to push the direction of ONGC investment.

Anyway I'm inclined to believe JW was there meeting with ONGC who would have been represented at senior level with the government officials in attendance - hopefully he will come away with good news and possibly have presented the case for investment in Amerisur to overseas institutions and investors new to the company.

So perhaps his reason for going to India extended beyond business with ONGC.

"Inaugurating the ONGC Pavilion at this exhibition, Mr Dharmendra Pradhan spoke about opportunities that Petrotech – 2019 will provide to Indian oil and gas industry to showcase their emerging potential."

I hope JW is showcasing Amerisur.

https://www.ongcindia.com/wps/wcm/connect/en/media/press-release/honble-minister-inaugurates-petrotech-2019

I'm not sure what the CoS for the current well is but all newbies should be aware that every well drilled in CPO5 have contacted oil.

Some of the areas around old wells and even their results could be revisited in light of the new finds - Loto-1 was supposedly potentially commercial if linked to other operations (I still suspect the high water % was due to failing to complete the well properly and even Kamal-1 flowed at up to 300bpd heavy oil initially in 2012.

The point is there is literally oil all over the place in CPO-5, it's about finding the commercial pools and if ONGC upscale they could use the Mariposa, Indico play as the foundation of multiple plays with the addition seismic now being progressed adding to the many possibilities - they still appear to believe the Llanos 34, plays may extend to CPO-5.

Bay - The main BoD of ONGC met last week, they appear to be continually pressured by the Indian Gov and have to make decisions on investments. dividend policy, share buybacks - all areas influenced by the Indian government and most importantly the future of their overseas investments which the Indian government wants sold off.

In this environment (Indian Gov eyeing/raiding cash) I suspect a strong case for investing in Colombia needs to be presented to ONGC corporate to upscale meaningfully beyond current commitments (increase budgets) in preference to other options - so I suspect JW is going to India to support the Colombia team who are already on-board to convince the corporate entity to pile in. big time

We already know there is an ambitious programme fully funded, but maybe we are targetetting 2, 3 rigs and more infrastructure investment etc and as we all know ONGC has formal processes to follow before doing anything.

JW's demeanour and statements is the recent interviews suggests we a totally aligned with the ONGC Videsh team on the ground and he has high expectations from his visit whatever the purpose. He definitely looks like a man in his comfort zone.

Colombia are going to offer the licences they have been planning and will consider offers for any that operators express an interest in. Maybe we can consolidates around some of our locations or partner up with Oxy or ONGC for something bigger.

"BOGOTA, February 6, 2019 – Colombia’s oil and gas regulator, the National Hydrocarbons Agency (ANH), has relaunched with modified terms a previously delayed E&P tender for more than 20 licences, international media reported Tuesday.

The ANH’s changes include a provision allowing operators to nominate attractive blocks and have them added to the auction list. "

leas - I don't believe we need an especially big rig, Geo Park drill similar wells very fast and cheaply (their presentations highlight this) thet are not deep wells - if ONGC could get anywhere near their performance it would be like shelling peas - we must remember ONGC are partnered with them to look for opportunities and JW commented that ONGC are getting more efficient in his recent interview. Hopefully they are learning by benchmarking their peers

IMO the best thing ONGC could do is contract a prime Contractor to handle all aspect of drilling from site preparation planning to placing the rig on production - that is actually what they do now except they deal with individual contractors -they could still keep their representatives on-site as they do now. That could speed things up considerably and cut costs.

Further to my post yesterday, I strongly suspect we are being manipulated wrt share price to facilitate some entity buying or selling shares.

The SP tends back to a position just below 17p each day against the logic that declared trades would suggest.

IMO when trading on AIM you have to expect a rigged market, until the game is up due to overwhelming buying or selling

leas your comment "Big smoke, I guess all the available rigs in Colombia are already contracted as the country ramps up production on the back of better oil prices"

That's now the case as I understand, when we first contracted the current rig I recall I posted an article about the company(or link) that suggested they had a number of rigs standing idle I also recall JW made a statement about rigs being available.

Finally I would point out we have a rig standing idle that was due to drill the N sands and that in the distant past it was suggested by Amerisur we might undertake the drilling of Loto and Sol (I sure I read that somewhere)

I have pondered if we need go through the entire laborious contracting process again with ONGC, but I suspect the current contract could be tweaked to facilitate a second rig after all that won an open tender process.

ONGC are tendering for "Hiring of Agency for Civil Works for Production Facilities in Mariposa-1 Well at CPO-5 Block"

They usually release the tenders in batches of complimentary work so maybe this is the fore-runner of putting the Well ion permanent production and starting to crank up the flow rate.

I've been keeping an eye on their tenders page because I suspect that might be where we get the first confirmation of a second rig. I would also point out that as Aguila is drill ready and Sol is at least a couple of months away perhaps they might include a Mariposa-2 well in the programme for a second rig to ensure they can keep it once under contract.

They could now even pipe the production from Indico to there if it is easier to Access - just a thought and it's only 6 km away.

Why bother construction roads and infrastructure to all wells - I'm sure economies of scale will present themselves as more wells are brought on line

My view is that currently the MMs are facilitating big(ish) trades.

Yesterday, after hours the last 2 trades reported where for half and 1 million shares - with deferred flag.

I assume a buy, but it really doesn't matter - what we see through the day or even over a full day is a misleading snapshot, that the MM's may want us to see.

More buys than sells or reversed, whatever, the sentiment and news flow has put Amer in the ascendency, it's simply a waiting game whilst investors either fill their boots or clear off.

For me as a shareholder fully invested and not playing a short term trading game this is the best position Amerisur have been in for years - so bring it on Buys, Sells or Shorting will mean nothing if the company deliver on the raised expectations promised, even with the next 2 (only needs the 2) wells coming in to support Indico invertors should see much more significant buying with an appetite for higher prices.

These wells are totally different from Plat wells that generally delivered production in the 100s of barrels, 3000 and 5000 barrels/day without any enhancement is fantastic and every successful new well will increase overall production by about 20%.

JW said in his interview the market has not yet grasped the potential magnitude of the find.

20% more revenue/well ongoing and likely to last for more than 5 years (assuming 7+ million barrels recoverable from Indico as stated by the company) by spending around £3m/well it will be transformational without doubt if the wells prove what management suggest/hope is the case

So I'm strapped in with no intention of selling a single shares, if the SP dips then I'm sure many PI's will take up the slack, when institutions start to buy serious quantities the opportunities will dry up - look at the share register.

I suspect IIs and management probably own about 70% of the company right now, and the same loosely held are recycled session after session. That's why yesterday's activity caught my attention, IIs buying those shares will totally change the dynamic.

Dear Trolls

I don't care what Bigsmoke or anyone else says or does as long as it is honest and duly respectful, we all have every right to be positive or negative, buy or sell.

All we need is for you to keep it honest, not liking the share is OK, not liking the chart is a personal preference and fine, as long as you don't start making things up you are welcome as you provide a nice opportunity for positive posters to point out the factual virtues of the company

Posts from trolls against a company that is robust are great opportunities for presenting the truth to new investors, that's why I'm happy to debate with you based on facts.

If you are trolling for fun or vindictive reasons, go get a life and if you are trolling you are short or hoping to trash the SP I suggest you take another look at recent events before you lose out.

NOVECKINGOOD - I don't take too much notice of charts for the likes of Amerisur.

But your suggesting the price rise was a result of director buys is ridiculous - they have had a very significant oil discovery and the director buys are meaningless in respect to moving the SP, their show of support was at best reassuring.

WRT a new downtrend, there is no discernible trend for 2019, the year will clearly be event driven, it the proposed well are bored and come in positively the SP will rise or potential soar, it they are duds it will tank. Any current movement could be for all sorts of reasons that have nothing to do with Amerisur - II repositioning, settling Tax bills, oil price movements etc, and any movement could be reversing in a matter of minutes.

If you own shares, don't worry about it, if you don't counting on a SP slump is at best risky.

The link is to a very interesting article about the problems and potential collapse of the shale oil dream.

It suggests
- most companies are exaggerating their performance to impress the market, 10% to a massive 50%
- Companies now appear to be struggling to raise cash by issuing bonds which have financed the growth.
- some analysts believe it is simple a ponzi scheme (also my view) and the companies could be plunged into a death spiral as more and more capital is required simply to stand still

I also share the view that the only thing that will save many of the less efficient operators will be a significant hike in oil price, it simply doesn't make sense to invest in them when interest rates (income available elsewhere) are rising and bond holders can't sell bonds on. Low interest rates where apparently a key reason bond investors where prepared to invest in the long term business case in the first place. Especially as now there appears to be no business case that suggests an improvement and all monies will be simply ploughed by in for a rinse and repeat. Sooner or later they'll may wake up to the fact they have been duped, then again maybe they know already but dare not admit it.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Is-The-Permian-Bull-Run-Coming-To-An-End.html