Member Info for jointhedots

there are no recriminations or accusations of failure over the spudding of the next well not yet reported, we need to be realistic ONGC dot all the "I"s and cross "t"s, if it not already started I think we can all rest assured it will be very soon. So lets keep positive today and over the weekend, remember the company NEVER explicitly confirms the date for these events, there is always a qualifier "expected", "envisaged" etc.

I also think they will contract a second rig soon, or start the process, it really doesn't work to wait for 4 additional wells to be drilled before continuing with the original programme especially as other wells could become imperative target as the results come in. Is they don't contract a second rig then Sol-1 might not be drilled until 2020 when they must be desperate to establish if the trend continues South.

According to a report on oil & gas discoveries there where 13 worldwide in Q4, Indico amongst 3 in Colombia which leads the list of countries together with Russia.

It will be interesting we see how Indico develops in terms of it's size in comparison to the others - I suspect it could eventually rank quite high.

What struck me is that 13 doesn't sound like very mang on a Worldwide scale when considering all the companies drilling around the world.

Article extracts:
"A recently published global report of the number of oil and gas discoveries in the last quarter of 2018 has put Russia and Colombia on top.

According to a 17-page report by GlobalData, a total of 23 oil and gas discoveries were made in Q4 2018 globally. Of these, 13 were conventional oil and the remaining 10 were conventional gas discoveries...

...In Russia, two natural gas discoveries – Obskoye North (Severo-Obskoye) and PO-1 – were made in the West Siberian basin and an oil discovery – Triton – was made in the Okhotsk basin. All three of Colombia’s discoveries – Acorazado-1, Danes-1, and Indico-1 – are in the Llanos Orientales basin, and all are conventional oil discoveries. "

Sorry guys, some of you understand my point but it's clear others don't or don't want to hear anything in the way of criticism.

I am not for one minute suggesting CPO-5 should play second fiddle to anything, in fact I was pointing out it's potential value and frustration at slow progress more than anyone on this BB when even the BoD where playing it's importance down and many on here where discussing selling it.

But CPO-5 and Platanillo are totally separate entities and fast tracking one does not need to impact on other activities. Amerisur are NOT the operator of CPO-5 and surely it should be business as usual in all other blocks - I worry that some posters are already accepting it's OK to slow peddle on Platanillo and drop targets.

It definitely isn't OK, fantastic though CPO-5 ma be, the secret to success is to deal with every issue and pay particular attention to poor performance as it drags heavily on the top performers, Every areas should contribute and then we'll see some phenomenal share spice moves IMO.

Some of you are too easily satisfied, whereas I expect this company to be operationally exceptional akin to the yarn they spin us every year - I invested on that basis - if they can't achieve it they shouldn't claim they will. Then the market will start to have more confidence in them

I would point anyone that thinks I'm being harsh (if you're recently bought you won't understand the tragedy of what the company has squandered operationally) to revisit one of the presentation from last year or even 2017 - it will put things into perspective - many wells should have been drilled on multiple blocks and would have contributed to revenue. In that case I'm sure the SP would already be at least double it's present value.

Platanillo matters!

We are where we are, but all shareholders, even those that got in on the lows should keep focused on pressuring for the BoD to excel, there is a massive prize to play for but our BoD could still squander it.

Apologies my comments about historic performance relate to 2017 and 2018 not 2019.

Yes, it certainly is an excellent RNS, but:

It is incomplete, and reminds me of the many companies I've seen over the years that decide to try yo bury failings under new positive events - lets not take our eye off the ball here.

Platanillo is our flagship block and where the bulk (or very large proportion) of the revenue is likely to come from into 2020 . Production has been disappointing and the development programme never really took off in 2018 or especially 2019 with only 1 well that was indecisive outcome, possibility of T-sands? What is that well doing? Are any wells planned (apparently not)? What has happened to 2018 programme (as the current programme suggests it was never a credible proposal)?

Much as I'm pleased with Indico and the JV proposals - JW's statement about delivering through the drill bit is at best misguided, Amerisur's own programme was an absolute disaster so I take offence at this statement:

"...we continue to deliver by way of our active programme with the drill bit in two core areas of Colombia..."

and "..."We are extremely encouraged by the progress made across our portfolio during 2018..."

IMO the reset of the programme each year should come with some explanation/ acceptance of failure (how many wells where planned?) - then we can have confidence that this years programme is more than wishful thinking and lessons have been learned.

I can understand everyone's excitement, but we must not lose sight of reality, except for the very fortunate result in CPO-5 Amerisur would have had a disastrous operation performance in 2019. We should judge our operational staff on what they do (they reported 2 more messed up workovers) not what our partner achieves.

Obviously this post is going to be very unpopular, but it needs saying as when they are completely open about own operations that's when the broader market will buy the story IMO.

What is happening wrt T-sands and U-sands, which are in areas where dozens of wells where touted?

Well good link, looking at the experiences of other nearby companies over the past decade or so it's clear the potential is tremendous. Flow rates from the lower sands are very impressive.

WRT codes signalling some event - what a load of drivel, I've seen posts for many years on many BBs suggesting some sort of signalling system, sometimes it coincides much to the glee of the poster with some event other times not. Never any proof or correlation

Whenever I look at the discoveries near to CPO-5, Yatay-1 always screams out to me as something to aspire to in terms of flow rate as it is so close, and having seen posters speculating today I will share my thoughts

Basically ONGC and our BoD appear to have been barking up the wrong tree trying to pick up on the coat tails of Geo Parks Llanos 34 block. This was apparently alluded to by JW after the Mariposa discovery, that rather than tracing across the North of the block they were to focus on heading South-ish on the basis that adjacent blocks provide a better guide.

Anyway, I took another look at the proposed additional Seismic tender doc from ONGC, page 64 is very interesting as it shows the block with Yatay-1 forming the Northerly most well of a series curving slightly to the South South-East include Mariposa and leading down to Sol-1.

Yatay-1 discovered 114 feet of potential net oil pay in the Lower Sand-3 formation and was a seismically defined, structure located down dip from the Candelilla structure and across the bounding Candelilla fault.

Mariposa-1 is closer to Yatay-1 which is to the North-West than it is to Indico-1 and our first follow up well is to the South West then we drill the second to the North East- trending line?

"Calao-1, targeting a structure alongside Indico to the southwest, towards the Aguila structure expected to spud in January 2019. On a simple structural basis, the Company estimates potential resources at Calao of between 2 and 7 mmbo
o Pavo Real-1 to follow Calao-1, targeting a similar structure adjoining Indico to the northeast. Structural evaluation by the Company estimates potential resources of 2 to 23 mmbo in this prospect"

It's easy to visualise the tends on the tender doc and even join the dots. All the wells have had high flow rates but Yatay-1 was over 10000 barrels/day, our team (JW) has indicated flow rates from Mariposa-1 and Indico-1 could be higher if ONGC wished to test the possibilities. These appear to be unlike Llanos 34 wells.

Hence my view on the suggested production rates today is that the possibilities are for much higher production than most realise - it's early days but there is everything to play for with the drilling campaign and the first 2 wells will surely help target more high potential areas. Looking NW to the Guatiquia block there are numerous 10000bpd wells and Amer could be looking at a company making field like Candelilla where first 3 wells produced 38700bpd in 2010 (see link 3)

http://www.ongcvidesh.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Tenderdoc-MMA.pdf
http://www.marketwired.com/press-release/petrominerales-yatay-1-exploration-well-produces-10440-bopd-tsx-pmg-1375894.htm

http://en.mercopress.com/2010/03/31/high-quality-oil-in-once-guerrilla-infested-colombian-jungle

Now needs clarifying.

What are we up to and what is the plan - I expected more wells on the Plat block to be announced as the assessment of the newly discovered T-sand should be complete or near completion.

They could drill 5 wells from the current pad if they wished. CPO-5 is fantastic but our partner is handling that and the OXY deal is more strategic, so what is JW and the team actually doing operationally, we have a rig standing idle at the moments.

As we grow they need to keep all aspects of the business moving along, after all it's been Amerisur operational failings that did a lot of damage in 2018 not ONGC operations.

Maybe they are deliberately holding back and we'll get a report on progress in the in the Q4 update -it is what is needed to complete the rosy picture for 2019

In addition to the presidents tweets in support of our oil find that have already been discussed, the attention of the Minister of Mines and Energy has also been raised - must be good news for our relations with government and negotiations in respect to other issues or maybe new blocks. I believe every new well requires government agency approval of the drilling set-up prior to spud, I suspect they will move quickly on all the upcoming wells. Above all the political interest suggests this is indeed a significant national scale find, they don't comment on every well as I pointed out the other day neither do ONGC - you need to look back a long way to find the last comment

"Bogota, Jan 9 (Prensa Latina) Colombian President Ivan Duque applauded on Wednesday the discovery of light oil in a deposit in the municipality of Cabuyaro, in the central department of Meta.

'Good news. The new well discovered is already producing more than four thousand barrels per day, 'said the president through the social network Twitter.

The discovery was reported by the Indian state company ONGC Videsh Limited in the Indico-1X exploratory well.

It is the second find in the same block, after the first in July of 2017 of a well that produces three thousand 200 barrels per day.

The Minister of Mines and Energy of Colombia, Maria Fernanda Suarez, also celebrated the news and stated that the revitalization of the industry will increase the country's oil reserves that are now 5.7 years."

https://www.plenglish.com/index.php?o=rn&id=37511&SEO=government-of-colombia-welcomes-oil-discovery

Great news that ONGC have acknowledged the find over the weekend - that's the parent company, a giant national oil company not the subsidiary.

In case anyone is thinking this is being over-egged on the BB, IMO the excitement is fully justified - and if proof is needed that this really is significant to Amer, then surely the fact ONGC see it as significant is proof enough - they don't normally do RNS's or statements on low-impact well results.

The link suggests that the news has even had a positive impact on the SP of ONGC today "ONGC nudges higher as unit discovers oil in Colombia", with the SP up 1.27%.

We are currently grappling to quantify the significance and thanks to Samroy and others for posting great information about surrounding blocks, they provide an insight to the massive potential. IMO anyone selling before we get some guidance on scale may be throwing away a very lucrative opportunity.

https://www.business-standard.com/article/news-cm/ongc-nudges-higher-as-unit-discovers-oil-in-colombia-119010700553_1.html

nteresting to use Geo Park's Llanos34 as a precedence for what Amerisur may have to look forward to, so I pulled a few details from their presentation:

..Well drilling: 90%+ success rate
..Leading oil story in Latin America - grew Llanos 34 block from 0 to 65,000+ since 2012
..World-class oil fields Tigana / Jacana
..Pending reforms: Corporate Tax
..D&M 2P and 3P net reserves: 88.2 MMbbl and 101.7 MMbbl respectively
..RLI: 1P: 8.3 years; 2P: 11.0 3P: 12.7 years
..LLanos 34: It just keeps growing - 2012: Zero barrels
..2018: 800 – 1 billion barrels Original Oil in Place
..In 2017 P2 NPV $1.3 Bn based on 88.2 MMbbl
..On well economics they say payback is 4-6 months with production 1000 to 2000 bpd and an IRR fo 500%+. With 50 to 60 well location they produce around 65000bpd and are still expanding.

Geo have been exceptionally successful in drilling and if ONGC can get anywhere close then it will be a major boost.
What has really struck me, (the reason I took a look at the presentation) is tha their wells appear to have flow rates of at best 50% of Marisosa and Indico-1. Bearing in mind Llanos 34 is supposedly world class and certinly is exceptional for Llanos - it begs the question what have ONGC found?

It's early days but judging from the flow rates, quality, excellent net pay thickness, RNS details coupled with the flow rates from fields around the block (there are many other besides Llanos34 some flowed in excess of 10000bpd), - it's not surprising the directors are filling their boots.

The key factor is as ever (I mentioned this immediately after the great result from Mariposa-1) - what is the field size and so ultimately volume of oil; so I'm so pleased they are pressing on immediately with establishing some parameters by drilling further wells from the pad. If the results are positive and we can finally claim some significant reserves I think the current SP will look like peanuts.

I mentioned RNS details above, specifically those are the statements in respect to potential oil: - Calao-1 potential resources between 2 and 7 mmbo and Pavo Real-1 2 to 23 mmbo So that's a total high estimate of 30 mmbo, however the company says "Given the potential for combination trapping, the Company believes potential resources may be significantly higher"

Add to that Indico-1 which the company are re-evaluating in respect to oil in place estimates, 2 other potential prospects to be drilled, Mariposa-1, Sol-1, Aguila-1, even Loto-1 could now be in play - Not forgetting the large unexplored areas to the South and West - IMO the market has still not recognised but the Directors appear to have.

It also crossed my mind that they have done a news dump over the festive period (not complaining mind) to free them to buy shares, had they waited other events (plans) may conspired have stopped them

https://geopark-ir.prod-use1.investis.com/~/media/Files/G/Geopark-IR/documents/geopark-investor-day-nov-2018.pdf

"ONGC to reconsider govt's demand to list OVL"

"NEW DELHI: Oil and Natural Gas Corp Ltd will reconsider the government's demand that it list ONGC Videsh Ltd, its overseas exploration subsidiary, Shashi Shanker, chairman and managing director of the company said on Wednesday. "

Things are moving fast for Amerisur now - perhaps we will finish up with a new partner of a more independent and faster acting ONGC Videsh,

I really don't identify with the view (occasionally posted on this BB) that Amerisur will sell CPO-5 - why wouldn't our BoD see it though to commercial success, it not as though we have other better prospects lined up yet.

It all stems back to a cheeky suggestion made be Malcy, that was brushed aside be GC, I watched the interview several times and it included some badly structured misleading statements from Malcy that where not confirmed including the Dividend nonsense that again seemed awkward resulting in a fudged answer from GC.

No dividend and definitely no sale of CPO-5 is my New Years prediction for 2019, lets enjoy the capital appreciation we get from the rising SP as CPO-5 production grows.

CPO-5 looks like a fantastic prospects (maybe the elusive transformational opportunity) - it escapes me why anyone would want to give it the swerve - shareholders or our BoD.

Comments like Fred's are so reassuring - first he thinks 19p is now likely and more importantly he and he others that want out and are accommodated in the steady rise will really help us later to avoid significant re-traces.

I agree with leas, "Good Luck" to Fred and I mean it genuinely, I hope you get your price and can move on.

No matter what anyone says though I'm not going to be tempted any time soon, this is the time to see this out not throw in a potentially winning hand

Now we need news on the plans for developing the Northern Platinillo plays - hopefully a drilling programme as having our drilling rig standing idle is almost criminal when we are not drilling in any location as far as we know - CPO-5 is after all ONGC's activity.

We are far from firing on all cylinders as yet, hopefully that will change this month to give a further push to the SP. If they chose to drill more holes into the U and T sands I reckon they could simply announce and start a programme, similarly to today's news as all permissions are in place for 6 wells from the pad.

I honestly expected them to push no hard with the programme to make up for the N sands disappointment - perhaps the interpretation of what's down there is more tricky than they envisaged. If not announced earlier then an update on this will surely be included in the quarterly update.

Whatever they do, they need to start drilling something and advise a programme to complete the positive outlook.

THis news may cause any institution planning to or actually accumulating steadily to accelerate any share accumulation programme.

It is now obvious that ONGC and Amerisur have found an excellent accumulation of oil that is set to grow significantly in the short term and who knows in the longer term.

The reasoning for sitting on the side-lines with the oil price at a favourable low level to speculate on an improvement and events unfolding fast at CPO-5 is severely weakened as is the case to sell up.

Fantastic - acceleration of programme

When the cats away the mice will play.

Most people pre-occupied at this time of the year, so an ideal time to try to impact the SP

I notice the SP has been marked down particularly on the bid side - MM's pre-empting a seller perhaps locking them out.

Whatever, I believe, subject to suitable flow rates from Indico, 2019, should be an excellent year for long-suffering shareholders and I wish all Amerisur shareholders a very happy and phenomenally prosperous new year

Incidentally, I agree with the post about excessive remuneration for some of our BoD (it's not all of them), IMO it is not justified for an outfit of Amerisur's size, their benefits should be aligned with shareholder prosperity.

for 2018

RNS completion of Put 14 acquisition - a great strategic deal IMO

There is a balance at the moment, many people are pre-occupied with some obscure evet (it's name escapes me lol), but the action will start in the New Year or when the update on flow rates for Indico arrive.

Bears often make a play at quiet times, so I'm wary we can expect a little weakness that arguably presents a buying opportunity and will most likely quickly corrects.

WRT the buying activity cited by Margaret365, sure there is some entity(s) accumulating but as yet there are no signs of any particular buyer driving things - it's early days in terms of Indico and the SP is holding well in the face of a torrid market for oil that has trashed the value of many companies. IMO the SP is holding up exceptionally well.

Our buyers appear to be largely bargain hunting, or accumulating steadily to avoid driving the price - all good, but IMO we will see the real action when buyers perceive this to be a buy at significantly higher prices and scramble to buy - "you ain't seen nothing yet".

I'm still waiting for the stars to align - i.e. Great news for Amer and a bullish oil market, the company always seem to mis-time events, of course not intentionally - had the Indico news come at the height of the positive vibes on oil price this year I have no doubt we would be well above 20p/share now maybe nearer 30p.

Our BoD have been far too slow this year, the programme has progressed at slower than snail's pace - I remain hopeful and optimistic that will change in 2019, it sure as hell needs to.

Apparently ONGC's BoD have just met and agreed a share buy-back after pressure from the Indian government, but pay no dividend.

It is interesting from our perspective because the company where also apparently considering floating off their overseas assets, ONGC Videsh our partner in CPO5, on Indian stock exchanges (no news available on intent).

If that occurs their budget constraints could be eased considerably - read across for us is that they could become much more aggressive in their expansion plans for CPO-5.

Great potential news for us if it occurs in 2019, there is of course always the possibility of them selling CPO5 or trying to buy our share.

From Bloomberg:

"ONGC Board To Consider Listing Of ONGC Videsh On Domestic Exchanges
Dec 19 18
Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Limited (NSEI:ONGC) will consider a proposal this week to list its ONGC Videsh Limited, on domestic bourses, two sources privy to the matter said on December 19, 2018. The move to float the unit ” which has investments in 11 producing assets in countries including Russia, Brazil, United Arab Emirates, Sudan and Venezuela ” is part of a government push to sell state assets to raise funds. "ONGC has a board meeting on December 20, 2018 and December 20, 2018. A proposal for listing of ONGC Videsh will be discussed," one of the sources said. Both sources declined to be identified due to sensitivity of the issue. No immediate response was available from ONGC.
"

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/ongc-to-consider-listing-ovl-making-provisions-for-buyback-3311201.html