Member Info for jointhedots

WRT to the three 2.5m trades - are we sure they where sells?

IMO our sellers are not notifying properly in any case, working with MM's to offload - last time we had big trades of that order it was someone buying the session before good news (insider trading IMO), 10m shares as I recall.

To some extent the notified price as the time of the trade is practically useless fot determining if Buy or Sell as the deals are often pre-arranged and the price adjusted to accommodate.

Several posters have pointed out that if Sol-1 is a flop the SP will trend lower - well I think if Sol-1 is anything like as successful as Indico-1 then the opposite trend is almost certain, and fully justified, with the pent up frustration at the ridiculously low SP I suspect many will gain the confidence to extend their investment.

The results of Wells suggest the geology is improving Southward - and Sol-1 is the furthest south yet

Luck - Kamal-1, Metica-1, Loto-1, Mariposa-1, Indico-1 and Calao.

6 wells and 2 successes as ONGC state.

Amerisur have a history of Cherry picking information.

All wells accept the latest contacted oil so it's possible to claim a very high success rate if we are finding oil, if we are finding commercial oil it's 1 in 3.

Loto-1 found a substantial body of oil but the water cut could not be reduced to reasonable rates (I'm still not convinced they sorted the well out to seal the water bearing horizons), though they tried - I also recall they planned to drill Lot-2 as well as Sol-1 but never got around to it. Loto has potential and was supposedly a feasible producer is tagged to another field, I would like to see them revisit it eventually

I also have a recollection that a well was drilled in the south of the block long before even ONGC got involved.

It's part and parcel of exploration, dusters are inevitable.

In fact ONGC have only had 2 successes out of 6 wells on CPO-5.

But ALL wells have provided geological information which accumulates to provide better targeting of future wells, the success rate is improving with only the last well spoiling the hat trick. Even that is being evaluation to better select the site for the next well near Indico-1

Sol-1 is a longstanding commitment and was scheduled long before Mariposa -1 so does not benefit from knowledge acquired from the last 3 wells (hence it could be drilled irrespective of the last well being a duster, it has no bearing. Even if Sol-1 is a duster it will still have been a valuable drill Aguila-1 may well be scrapped as it will most surely push the focus back to drilling at Indico.

ONGC are quoted as having told Colombian authorities a few days ago:

"The oil company ONGC Videsh Limited announced the progress of the exploratory stage in the area, as well as the investments and the work carried out with the community. They stated that of the six wells that have been explored, only two have been positive, Mariposa and Indico IX, but they are in the confirmation stage, that is to say, that the studies are being carried out to know and evaluate the future production of crude oil.

"confirmation stage" so they don't know the level of future production yet, we're still testing and presumable once they decide investment increased investment is new wells will be forthcoming at Mariposa and Indico to realise any production plans.

I believe JW has already commented that Amer want and believe production should be increased at existing sites

As I've said many times, everything is still to play for.

Of course I realise DC died tragically recently, my last post references him in the future tense. Before I get ticked off no slight was intended, the chap was a good executive for Amer, I was simply pointing out the facts.

CD - you're got it wrong wrt Dana Coffield, he was kicked out unceromoneously by GTE where shareholders blamed him for poor performance following some poor corporate moves, so although he could offer great advise on GTE, I have severe reservations that he could help in negotiations.

Lets be realistic, slights like beating GTE to a purchase will have no effect in deterring effort to merge or takeover a company, it's business, however our BoD are the key factor in determining if a mutually beneficial or aggressive approach is possible.

It has been alleged (particularly in respect to Cricket) that GC is very difficult and bears a grudge if crossed, he even said himself in an interview to illustrate his determination to win that he doesn't even like to lose at tiddlywinks.

My point is that GC is probably the key to facilitating, or not, a corporate deals. He been awfully quiet of late - I wonder what's he up to? My impression over the year has been that he is looking for a tip top price and that is one of the positives of his involvement. Those that think that Amer will be taken out on the cheap will be way off the mark unless there is a stream of bad news. GC and Michinoko seem to have patched up their differences and I think it will have come at a cost, most likely agreement to consider corporate options, if so it will be with a view to getting a SP that is no where near the current level.

Incidentally, I don't hold with the notion that GTE is out there as red hot favourite for a corporate deal, Parex and Geo Park would make a good match and both are looking for expansion ops in Colombia (CPO-5 would be brilliant for them) and arguably have stronger businesses than GTE. Then of course there are Oxy and ONGC followed by a large field of potential new entrants.

I may be way off the mark, but the time for a deal is not right at the moment as there is all to play for, but after this years programme good or bad, who knows

But we are having too many of these, PMO etc have good days as the oil price bounces, Amerisur feel lie it is weighted down with the it's History of failures, we need news to move whereas other oil companies and linked to the optimism surrounding the oil price.

The wider market aside, Amerisur has been trending down on low volume which points to a lack of interest rather than any significant selling pressure, IMO good news could drive the SP up significantly. Where back to the same old requirement for management to perform. They got away with the AGM unscathed, which is unfortunate, I just hope they don't settle back into the same old habits of kicking the can down the road.

It has also not gone unnoticed be me how quiet the BoD are and have not bought shares, I always assume these to be signals that there may be corporate activity constraining them.

Gran Tierra have been mentioned today , they have indeed raised some cash but more importantly they have just announced the signing of their agreement to take on Ecuadorian blocks. The linked article lists the key highlights of the deal, Take note of the last point, it looks to me like our OBA pipeline could be a very desirable asset:

Highlights
?Establishes the Company as one of the top landholders in the play trend which extends from the Putumayo Basin in Colombia through to the Oriente Basin in Ecuador; the Putumayo and Oriente Basins are the same geological basin, with different names due to the international border between Colombia and Ecuador

?Further strengthens and consolidates Gran Tierra’s position in what the Company considers is a conventional oil resource fairway; Ecuador has the same multi-zone potential in carbonate and sandstone reservoirs found in the Putumayo Basin, including the prolific Napo Formation (Villeta equivalent) and Hollin Formation (Caballos equivalent), which contribute to the majority of reserves and production in the Oriente-Putumayo petroleum system

?Gran Tierra has secured 100% working interest (“WI”) and operatorship in the Charapa, Chanangue and Iguana Blocks (collectively, the “Blocks”), which increases Gran Tierra’s gross acreage position in the conventional resource plays in Ecuador and Colombia from 1.1 million to over 1.2 million gross acres

?Gran Tierra expects to commence its Ecuador exploration drilling program in 2020; this new exploration program is expected to be fully funded through the Company’s forecasted net cash provided by operating activities

?Contiguous acreage extending from Colombia’s Putumayo Basin into Ecuador’s Oriente Basin provides Gran Tierra with the ability to potentially construct strategic gathering infrastructure on operated 100% WI acreage, which would allow the Company to potentially utilize the existing infrastructure in Ecuador

https://www.oilandgas360.com/gran-tierra-energy-inc-announces-formal-signing-of-ecuador-blocks/

leas - things have a tendency to get lost, usually because of a protracted, endless discussion of something that can be debated till the end of time e.g. why the SP in up/down/stubbornly static etc, has happen to me a few times.

I saw the tender a few days ago as I tend to check regularly and missed your post, have been too busy to follow the BB closely recently.

I think there is a tendency for many BB posters to just brush these things aside, but in reality the Seismic on CPO-5 could be just as important as that proposed by Occidental and lead to company making finds.

A few months ago ONGC released a tender doc for a contractor the progress consultations and permissions for seismic activity over parts of the blocks not currently covered - presumably to accelerate block development and identify potential new prospects. Obviously it is a long-term objective and the potential wells will not be drilled any time soon, at the pace of ONGC I thought years away.

However, they have now released another tender for a contractor to undertake 3D seismic in the SW of the block, if you look at the block plan of prospect that's where some big structures appear to be located - possibly not even related to the current fields.

I's interesting as it really back the view that ONGC mean business in the block and are no longer dragging their heels, it may also point to good progress in achieving permissions in the block.

Tender description: "3D Seismic Data Acquisition and Fast track Processing in S-W of block CPO-5, Colombia Onshore"

5p or 50p, neither is fantasy

Both are possible this year dependent upon the way events unfold.

I'll repeat myself for the umpteenth time - its' all down to the BoD, for sure they can't control the broader market but unless they perform significantly better at operational level than previous years it will all count for nothing even if oil remains strong, they can achieve 5p or 50p+ for us, everything is to play for and those that think otherwise really don't understand the nature of oil exploration in a frontier region

I can't imagine any investor on AIM or any other market that wouldn't want the great man having and interest in any venture in which they are a shareholder.

He's not quite investing in Amer or likely ever even heard of us but it looks like he will have an interest in some of our blocks via an investment in Occidental.

Apparently WB is investing $10bn in Occidental in order to buy Anadarko so they become the biggest shale operator in the Permian basin - they also get more Colombian assets.

On a serious note Occidental will sell Assets (in the Gulf of Mexico ) and Africa following the merger so it will interesting to see what they do with Colombia onshore where they have a longstanding presence and a Government making positive noises about Fracking - I doubt they will want to exit without finding out what is in our blocks - the cost is peanuts to them and they would have to pay massive compensation to exit (as Shell did with MATD). Would actually be great for Amer if they walked away as we are still the operator.

Apparently the Occidental boss has upset many major shareholders (big hitters) and put out the nose of super-giant Chevron, refusing to give up and signing up WB so she, Vicki Hollub, didn't need to get shareholder approval to do a deal.

Apparently she is an impressive boss and it looks like she gets what she wants (already agreed to sell Anadarko's African assets for $8bn. These are big money players and if Amerisur ever becomes a target or simply get in the way we could be swallowed in a heartbeat - after all they must have seen something worth investing in wrt our blocks. The Wall Street Journal also suggests Occidental itself could now become a takeover target with weakened finances.

Interesting concept. as GC and his buddies have maintained financial strength at Amerisur - perhaps to stave off an takeover possibility, and in turn apparently upsetting Miochinoko, they backed the BoD in the capital raise at 25p to fund growth and that money has was simply stashed with associated negative SP action - I'd be *issed off too now the BoD are awarding cheap share options. It's a *iss take in my humble opinion.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/occidental-ceo-battles-oil-field-giant-to-rule-the-permian-basin-11557269895
hhttp://investors.anadarko.com/2019-05-09-Anadarko-Agrees-To-Be-Acquired-By-Occidental

I believe today may be the last date to vote for AGM resolution easily via broker websites (maybe even too late for some) as I believe they vote a block on behalf of clients.

So in any case have your voice heard "IT IS IMPORTANT" if you want to send a message and have a responsive management.

GC, JW and the remuneration package should be of particular interest as is the approval of pre-emptive share issues (that protection is the default for good reason).

Even if you just vote yes to everything, it at least tells the BoD that shareholders are switched on- otherwise if you can't be arsed IMO you should not be rubbishing or praising the BoD on this of any other forum.

Have tendered for production facilities for Mariposa-1, appears to be for the change from long term test to full production, which may also now include artificial lift and a change in production level as the facilities will be able to handle much higher production.

Though ONGC are I guess likely to simply retain current levels, if the approval has been granted it's a positive development. I believe a Mariposa-2 was listed as a possible well.

Yes

I urged shareholders to vote against the Finance Director last year in order to send a massage to GC and JW to up their game - ruffling their feathers is required in order for them to get the message that something has to change. Perhaps if more had done it last year the BoD would have sorted things out

GC is ultimately responsible for all failings "the buck stops here" should mean the chairman, yet he is almost invisible. He should have and still should demand JW improves his operational performance, that is the root of all the problems and all 3 core directors appear to have done nothing to improve it or explain candidly what the problems are - instead claiming success.

GC and JW and NH have too many outside interests when Amerisur is mis-firing the read across is that they are not giving the 100% we deserve, considering the large salaries paid - investors need to give the a bloody nose, everything else has failed and lets face it for Michinoko to break ranks with the BoD you can bet your life they deserve it .

Amerisur should provide great returns for all involved, it's got fantastic potential, yet the BoD are the only stakeholders benefitting

IMO it's a disgrace that the BoD simply appear to continue to feather their nests with superb benefits packages and have freedom to engage in other outside business interests (and do) whilst shareholders suffer major losses, they don't seem to care.

They can produce as many presentations as they like showing value creation but the truth is they've presided over horrendous value destruction for shareholders, by the only measure that actually matters, that's the SP.

II's must buy based on promises/projections and those have not been fulfilled, by any stretch of the imagination operation performance has been pathetic at best, unlike Pi's they will not be bamboozled by a new set of impressive targets every year
.
This was supposed to be an exciting year not a painful repeat of last year. I really hope they don't buy anything else as they seem incapable of operating the blocks they've got efficiently.

Whatever your viewpoint I'm sure everyone can see that something need to be done to change the course we're on, they are our employees entrusted with looking after our investment and they have decimated it for many of us. They have the power but choose to ignore the problem. IMO

Sad news, one of the better directors. Highlights the principle that no man is Caesar or should be, and we put too much faith in our 3 core directors and especially JW. All three have various outside business interests and IMO the they need breaking up. It is risky and there is no evidence of any succession planning, and IMO when they are ready for off the company will be for sale irrespective of shareholder interests.

Bay, good post exactly my sentiment, I was saying about the neglect of Plat etc in the midst of the euphoria about Indico and was told to I was wrong and basically shut up as Plat was history by some of the newbies. All shareholders should surely now realise it's about JW's operational performance, they can paint a rosy picture but the revenues would have catapulted AMER had he achieved anything like the planned output - keep singing his praises if you like but the performance figures have been woeful.

Why should we think Indico will not now be drilled in the near term Indico-2 was never supposed to be the next well, our BoD raised the prospect as a knee jerk reaction to the last well.

Sol-1 needs drilling as it will supply so much information as well as a potential find - it's been a target for about five years now and should have been drilled when Loto was finished.

Maybe they haver decided to move to Sol-1 and prepare the pad at Indico so that there is no need to cut production from Indico-1 whilst drilling - the reasoning for that restriction has not been clarified and could possibly be due to regulator restrictions during the short term test rather than an physical reason - hence it would make sense to wait of operational approval.

There are no signs of another rig, but ONGC have tendered for completion of the Aguila pad so I guess the result of Sol-1 could lead to a second rig or a quick move to Aguila it's anyone's guess

Wait - don't be ridiculous and so naïve about the reasons for complaints, fair comment is perfectly reasonable even if you wish to close your eyes to the truth - if you think it's about 1 well than you know sod all about the company.

and wrt to nerve, I have held my nerve for years and have the balls to call out issues which many other shareholder are afraid comment on, if I was for selling I would just sell and leave without comment - others are losing their nerve, and with some justification, but it's those that are too timid the fight for their investment and IIs that will simply lose faith.

The BoD said this year would be exciting (as they have for the past few disappointing years), well guys I don't feel very excited and I don't get the vibe from posters on this BB apart from a few newcomers that appear determined to cloak JW and mates in glory, ignoring the obvious malaise. Frustrating, disappointing, annoying are all reasonable feeling, but exciting, I just hope that ship has not sailed off into the sunset for yet another year!

They have been atrocious for years, and at the same time feathering their own nests, the latest award is obscene IMO. By all means incentivise the staff, but look at the proportion going to the directors accountable for our failings, helping yourself to large chunks of the company and its' revenue every year whist trashing shareholders investment and failing to achieve targets - where's the incentive in that? There is greater reward in keeping the SP down until there is one final push to realise an out for themselves.

As Moneylender points out shareholder after shareholder votes with the Sell button on their share account - someone asked me at the end of last week why I don't sell, well it's because to the potential for absolutely outstanding gains if only the BoD step up and deliver anything like a good performance. Until they stop getting a reward for failure, why should they step up their game?

ONGC have released a tender for sale of all oil from wells, current and future in CPO-5. Interestingly they give expected figures for Mariposa of 3140 and for Indico is 5000bpd, presumably controlled down. The flow rate going forward for Indico is impressive and reassuring. The sooner they drill additional Indico wells the better, before year end CPO-5 could easily eclipse Plat. Based on just 2 test producers our share of planned output is 2442bpd

"Sub: Tender for Sale of Crude Oil produced at CPO-5 Block
Bids are invited for sale of Crude Oil at producing wells in CPO-5 block and future wells (in case of success) including condensate produced at field, seeking best irrevocable and unconditional quote as per the terms and conditions given below: -...….
…..1. Mariposa-1: The expected flow rate of 3,140 bopd from Mariposa-1 well will be available for lifting by the BUYER. The lifting quantity may depend on flow of the oil from the well. Seller gives no guarantee for delivery volumes but these volumes are of best estimate basis only. However, continuation of well flowing
Page 5 of 33 might vary depending on Operational decision.
2. Indico-1X: The expected flowrate from Indico-1X is 5000 Bopd. The lifting quantity may depend on flow of the oil from the well. Seller gives no guarantee for delivery volumes but these volumes are of best estimate basis only. However, continuation of well flowing might vary depending on Operational decision.
3. Additional wells production: In case of new findings of Crude Oil at CPO-5 Block, quality escalator will apply as per contract terms and conditions. Expected flow rate will be informed and Notice of Collection will be ruled according to the Contract.
4. Oil from gas condensation: If crude oil is produced by gas condensation, Buyer shall take such production and quality escalator will apply as per contract terms and conditions. Expected production will be informed and Notice of Collection will be ruled according to the Contract."