Member Info for jointhedots

The oil price is rising strongly, yet Amer appears totally unresponsive. As I've said before a strong rise is a problem for Amerisur as the SP often works it's way lower on the way back down.

We should really be seeing an improving SP right now.

Good news from yesterday, Gran Tierra reported the Putumayo problems have cleared

"Southern Putumayo Blockades Lifted – Production Restored: Gran Tierra has been able to restore oil production from both the Suroriente and PUT-7 Blocks, which is currently approximately 4,500 barrels of oil per day equivalent (“BOEPD”)"

To the best of our knowledge it did not effect Amer in any case but it's still a cloud lifted, lets hope the Government have sorted it out permanently.

Hardly surprising BB interest appears to be waning, I feel like I'm on repeat every few week moaning about the same deficiencies. try as I do to look on the bright side, our BoD disappoints consistently.

Where's the excitement we where promised? Who's feeling it? Not me.

The BoD simply don't inspire confidence, they draw their huge wages and benefits packages and do nothing to address the serious destruction of shareholder investment, even get granted opportunities to benefit from their failings by acquiring cheap shares - I simply believe they don't care - shareholders need to wise up and start making them care not just selling up and moving on with a feeling of injustice. It's gone on far to long and is starting to look like one of Malcy's so-called lifestyle businesses, run for the benefit of directors

I've said this before, if it was in the ownership of anyone with a brain they would have sacked someone out by now, probably all exec directors and curtailed the excessively generous remuneration - wouldn't take the dramatics of the Apprentice and Alan Sugar to see it is necessary just anyone with any sense.

It's such a pity that this is not seen as investable by so many that should be piling in, it isn't the proposition which is excellent, IMO it's the ability of our BoD that is blocking progress.

I hope we get an activist investor on the register, Michinoko perhaps would then make a move against the BoD, I'll back any reasonable proposition to oust those that are failing to deliver .

Bigsmoke - yes the guys need to be taken with a massive pinch of salt, come to think of It I've never seen him pick his nose either, neither have I seen his CV but I doubt he is a genuine oilman, as lezzils says he's a "tipster" and often a really bad one because he won't tell it as it is and criticise the management teams that pay for services, everything is always on the cusp of great success.

Having agreed with you, I would pint out that he is very useful at times, for instance his comments and interviews occasionally provide insights we would not otherwise have - often in error when he asks a loaded questions, body language or mistimes in interviews because he not as keyed in as he should be.

But mostly it's superficial tripe, I recall him doing one to ones with some other tipster who was supposedly a charts type guy (Zac something I think )some years ago - and though repeatedly asked by the other guy and offered the opportunity to back track he kept saying the OBA was much further advanced than it was and Amerisur would be saving money imminently - showed a massive lack of understanding IMO, even I knew it was drivel.

Sales of around 200,000 shares erase all the hard fought gain of many sessions , 3% down or about £5m of market cap.

It is ludicrous and looks very much contrived to me, games are still being played and will be until our BoD puts a stop to it by taking appropriate action- whatever that is

Jaggers " Am expecting operational activity across the board to really kick off in 2H."

I really hope so, interestingly with just one more successful well (maybe already), CPO-5 will be self financing - certainly must be at the moment as progress is so slow. But as long as they continue to strike oil it will pay for itself and then some.

As Oxy are now footing the vast majority of the bill for Putamayo and we are simply doing care and maintenance on Plat it begs the question what the hell are Amerisur going to spend their war chest on, a nest-egg that in fact must surely be geeting larger by the day to the point of becoming an embarrassment as we are doing minimal drilling. All BoD's of any company are expected to employ their money, even leverage, to create shareholder value or give it back - sitting in the bank long term without purpose is a failure

We had a debate earlier in the week about a share buyback and it seems to me the company must surely do something with the money soon, it is a wasting asset lets not forgrt it was accumulated (including in a placing) supposedly to be put to work to create shareholder value What on Earth are they going to do with it? I sincerely hope the answer isn't "nothing".

Guys - I already posted about the weather problem in Llanos and across Colombia, the Economist has reported the region's main road to Bogota closed through landslides that could take months to clear the weather has apparently picked up but transport is via minor road, food shortages possible etc.

I didn't want to over-egg it as it may not have effected CPO-5 operation at all, but on the other side of the coin the current delays in reporting Sol-1 may simply be due to being prudent until the problems are resolved - the BoD could not report Sol-1 without also reporting the weather issue and I came to the conclusion that they may be holding the news until they are also able to announce imminent spudding of Indico-2.

I may be way off the mark , but remember last year! I'm not in the slightest bit worried about Sol-1 as the rainy season happens every year, so Amerisur knows how best to deal with it. More importantly is that the weather and transport difficulties have not impacted production.

I would suggest everyone stop fretting about Sol-1, nothing can be deduced in respect to flow rates or anything else because of the delay - it seems to me typical flow rates in the Llanos are 1000 - 1500 for a good well and low water cut is a major bonus.

Llanos 34 wells typically flow in that range, so anything near to 1000bpd would be excellent as long as the water cut is low, we must not forget Mariposa-1 and Indico-1 are exceptional even for the Llanos with net pay zones well above the norm and virtually no water.

Jux - you're right of course, but I would point out that the shorting is apparently more subtle than genuine processes - according to a very well known entrepreneur who has started many aim companies the problem is the MM's who are consistently naked shorting and the regulators simply ignore it.

I regard them as the main enemy here as they make money by taking it off us, they have additional information on trader intent and trends and their ear to the ground for news (industry insiders), they will get news instantaneously on release how many of us are watching screens constantly and most importantly IMO it suits their purpose (mitigates their risk) to keep every lightly traded company at the rock bottom price. I believe we will always trend down unless there is irresistible buying pressure, unfortunately II selling is the wrong type of pressure.

JP - you say "One moment you advocate AMER needs to get big fast, the next moment a share buyback."

I have talked about a share buyback on the BB for a long time now and for me it's is a no-brainer never varied my stance, I really find it hard to understand why anyone has a problem with it, when the company has a significant cash cushion, is cash positive and appears unable to utilise it's cash effectively. The SP is so low it's will add value to everyone's shares, the BoD talked about returning cash to shareholders in the last annuals and IMO this is by far the best way to utilise spare cash.

Some PI's seem to run away with the idea that a share buyback involves big money, that is not the case they can dip in and buy gradually and spend no more than the cost of say one of the wells they fail to drill every year - it's peanuts.

As for a consolidation, it's a complete disaster unless the share register is filled with supportive shareholders - the SP would collapse, I've seen it before, it is not a solution to anything accept allowing a failing BoD more headroom to fail some more (raise money).

WRT to getting big fast, that is in context of being the prey to some bigger outfit if we stay weak, buying shares does not signal weakness, it signals a BoD taking proactive actions to defend the company; I really don't care if the company gets bigger or shrinks as long as it's successful, doing nothing should not be an option and the company have set their stall out to get big so why are we still unable to drill some of the wells scheduled for last year.

JP I don't see the contradictions you see, it's all very simple(or maybe it's me that's simple), deal with all the issues, for me they are paid £££millions in bloody remuneration to be outstanding, if not then for what?

They should buy back shares, cut costs, increase production, provide brilliant IR, and grow strategically etc etc all CONCURRENTLY . Surely they can multi-task, as some BoDs do!

The oil price has risen strongly in recent sessions, yet the Amer SP is largely unresponsive, as has occurred previously are we now set up for a SP slide if the oil price simply retraces - a rising oil price is a problem and has never been a catalyst to drive the SP up significantly, it should IMO but it clearly isn't.

Following on from that IMO we need a catalyst to move the SP significantly and in truth even news of operational success has totally underwhelmed and any advantage is lost within a few weeks at most, even a new oil find is dismissed.

So what's going to do it? Picking up on some of the recent comments of BB posters and considering the painful consequences of the selling down of Rex Hatbour, it seems to me the main cause of the "dead to stimulus" share price is institutional selling and that either needs to be stopped or mitigated. as it isn't likely to stop or stop completely and will accelerate as any SP improvement releases them from incurring losses (catch 22). It's mitigation that's required but our BoD appear to be in complete denial.

IMO the BoD need to:
- Instigate a share buyback, should be a no-brainer, our peer group have and Genl appear to be benefitting from a recently announced scheme.
- Undertake an independent review of deficiencies , strategic options and identify actions.
- Undertake IR improvements, after all they added Elodie Grant Goodey to the BoD whose expertise is supposedly in that field (what are we paying these guys for exactly?).

But the above are all essentially tinkering to mitigate the underlying problem, IMO for full mitigation we need a new activist/cornerstone investor(s) on the scale of Mickinoko's stake or larger. That's the place Rex Harbour abandoned - shareholders tend to forget RH was buying into a rising SP and helped the SP immensely for a protracted period before he allegedly got ****ed off by the BoD's insensitivity to shareholders and greed (BoD's fault?). That major investor is proving very elusive to find, and it's GC's job isn't it? "...Giles Clarke focuses on the Company’s relations with Governments and their agencies, as well as major investors..."

It was stated in his job description he was to focus on large shareholders engagement and IMO that has been a stand out failure, for all their grumbling PI's have largely stuck with the company, II's are leaving. It's no wonder someone reported back from the AGM that GC claimed no knowledge of any problem with selling down of II's - he's the responsible director if I understand his job description correctly and the one thing I do not ever, and I mean EVER see is an acceptance of any failings let alone responsibility for failings - our BoD are superheroes.

leas - I feel ONGC are 100% committed now, progress is being made, but they move at a slugs pace, not doing it on purpose. it's just generally the nature of a government owned company and combine that with Indian bureaucracy and it's amazing we have any production at all.

It's not a coincidence that most of their partnerships are non-operator and the Indian government want them to sell interests in their ventures to the private sector.

Having said that our own crew disguise their own poor performance with every excuse under the sun - that's why I like Geo Park so much, they truly are a can-do outfit - I honestly believe we will see very high production from CPO-5 eventually but patience and inexhaustible ability to suffer frustration is necessary.

I also still believe there is still an outside chance of seeing near 20000bpd production form CPO-5 by year end, if they go for Indico2 and then Indico3, all is still to play for.

Wolster - wrt your post Sat 02:58, where you posting after a night on the booze perhaps!

I must agree with most of what you say, I have never wavered from suggesting our BoD are at fault - THEY ARE RESPONSIBLE for all problems and are only too happy to accept praise for any successes.

Amerisur is without doubt a very frustrating share, though ultimately the problem lies with shareholders flatly refusing to challenge or get rid of some of the BoD , particularly at AGM's they gat away with a fresh batch of promises every year. I have voted against them regularly and truly believe had we given them a bloody nose and given them a scare about re-election they would have upped their game. Unfortunately, most PI's simply want to post supportive statements or sell up. What many fail to realise is that they have failed to performance consistently for years, defending the indefensible and often glorifying JW's achievements, however, only the fantastic luck with CPO-5 has saved us from disaster, without that we would be trading is single pennies IMO.

But you're not trapped, IMO now is not the right time to exit but the decision is yours, there have been loads of missed opportunities but let's hope they don't miss anymore (What happened to the 17000bpd target, has everyone forgotten/forgiven?).

You appear to be agonising with this, as do I, but I take a different view, I'm not in anyway trapped I'm invested because I want to be, the prospects are phenomenal

No formal acticle I can find but reports appear to suggest OPEC agreed to extend the oil caps together with Russia for up to 9 months over the weekend. Also US/China agreed to resume trade talks.

Looks to me that the Donald is softening his tone in all areas in the run up to the 2020 election, very cynical approach to make the electorate feel good and vote for him. (not quite as cynical as Boris and Jeremy perhaps lol)

Maybe explains why the oil price has risen this morning. All very bullish for oil

Looking at the block layout around CPO-5 in the linked article, I'm surprised Amerisur or even ONGC didn't bid for Llanos 87, 104 and particularly block 86 which actually adjoins CPO-5 - they look like a perfect fit for expanding a Llanos footprint, are we not interested?

I can only surmise we have other fish to fry, perhaps thay held back by mutual agreement in order to go for something else unopposed that has yet to be disclosed.

Above and beyond that I now find it inconceivable that Geo-Park would not want a share in CPO-5 and operatorship, they operate most of the active blocks already and economies of scale and sharing of infrastructure would come into play.

Perhaps they could now tempt ONGC to release say 20% - remember they have already signed a partnership agreement to look for opportunities.

The problem is Amerisur's interest which is increasingly looking like a "blocking share of CPO-5", which would prevent Geo-Park from becoming the Operator of the whole patch.

I believe there is every chance that Geo will try to buy out Amerisur's interest in the block and have no interest in acquiring anything in the Putumayo, I also believe Amerisur will rebuff them at least until the price is right.

The amount of expansion merger and takeover activity in the llanos is becoming very significant and IMO Amerisur needs to get bigger and fast (my preferred option) or risk being swallowed up by an irresistible offer (still probably sh*te for long term shareholders).

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20190627005229/en/GeoPark-Announces-Significant-Acreage-Expansion-Llanos-Basin

Found a little more on the Fonterra rumour.

First thing to realise is Fonterra are a large outfit that hit the skids a few years ago when the government took their flagship block back after the concession ran out. Anywaythey restructured and are still amongst the biggest producers in Colombia targeting 85000bpd by 2023, for scale on a par with Occidental I suggest.

Anyway, I just checked out an article from the start of the year that suggests Fonterra was planning to sell all it's Colombia assets, what is most interesting is the names of potential buyers:

"The oil companies named in the sector are GranTierra Energy, Occidental Petroleum Corporation (Oxi) and GeoPark. Precisely, this last multinational is the one that has sounded most insistently in recent days to acquire the assets of Frontera."

All main contenders for any more on Amerisur, if Occidental truly are making a move for Fonterra that might explain why they have held fire in the recent auction but it also points to a commitment to Colombia as one of the strategic areas of operation. Their approach in buying Anadarko has been to bid whatever it takes to get what they want and even sweep oil majors aside to become the biggest operator in the Permian.

IMO they are a fantastic partner to be associated with and will IMO protect Amerisur from the advances of any company that thinks they can get Amer on the cheap - on the basis of their apparent commitment to Colombia onshore and being the biggest in their chosen territory I believe they would step in.

As I've pointed out a number of times IMO Geo Park are the most impressive of all the operators in Colombia and also IMO the most likely predator for CPO-5 - it would fit perfectly for them and they could repeat the massive success of Llanos 34 which is by far their biggest success.

The reason I mention it is because I have just translated and read an article from a couple of days ago, which reports their expansion activity and comments below. They are clearly in expansion mode and it's telling that that are chasing cost reduction aggressively even though they are miles more efficient than Amerisur, our BoD need to do more IMO.

If Amer or even CPO-5 where up for sale I think they would be at the front of the queue with a good offer as they are already under contract with ONGC, I'm sure they would be ONGC's partner of choice in Colombia, rumours that they are considering buying Fonterra assets is interesting

IMO just highlights the great potential for us all to eventually see a great return on our investment, on course like many others I don't want to see Amer taken out before we fully evaluate CPO-5 anf get the Occidental partnership up and making progress. But make no mistake if Amer perform well the SP will rise substantially, if slowly and there are buyers for the business. Incidentally, I don't own shares in Geo Park, I wish. lol

Comments include:

"...the company that is most taking advantage of the moment is GeoPark, which when putting the cards on the table shows its interest in strengthening its presence in Colombia.

The same company took off the veil to show its intention on June 4, during the bidding of several companies in the sector, to take over the development of new blocks..."

"...it was noticed that, precisely this oil company, was the one that presented the greatest number, six in total, of which three would develop in association with Hocol: Llanos 86, Llanos 87 and Llanos 104; likewise, alone it intends to operate three others: Valle Inferior del Magdalena 22 (VIM22), Cordillera 9 and Llanos 94."

"...Cost effectiveness
The secret that has allowed GeoPark to extend its horizon in the hydrocarbon tasks in the country, is to optimize its operating costs to the maximum, with the goal of approaching US $ 4 per barrel, in the development of the Llanos 34 block."

"According to a statement, the oil company announced to the market that the tasks for this year aim to "develop more efficiently the block Llanos 34", as well as "operate and grow within the cash flow.""

"It should be noted that last year ONGC Videsh and GeoPark signed an agreement to evaluate upstream investment opportunities in Latin America, including Colombia.

In addition, in the oil sector of the country there is talk of the purchase of assets to Frontera Energy by GeoPark. The company has reiterated that it does not comment."

https://www.portafolio.co/negocios/empresas/geopark-lista-para-entrar-al-top-de-operacion-petrolera-del-pai

If we think of MM'a basically feeding on the demise of Shareholders and shorters with equal glee (maybe Parasites too strong a word. maybe!) and they know far more about the trading trend than we could ever guess - then the sharp SP movement yesterday makes perfect sense.

They move the SP up and down to make money, don't care who gets caught up in losses, so perhaps they knew something yesterday that we don't yet know as some have suggested or perhaps it's as simple as pushing the SP up sharply to catch out shorters, test appetite or gain stock - whatever it will have made profit for them and caught almost everyone else napping.

See what happens today, if it goes up again I would say there is some genuine reason for it, otherwise it's anyone guess - there was a time when Amerisur would move up a penny or two regularly, lets hope we're getting back to that.

It s being reported that Anadarko (Occidental) are surrendering their offshore blocks which are in partnership with Ecopetrol, even though they contain hydrocarbons. They are also reportedly considering selling a large US partnership as well as the African venture.

Apparently some assets don't fit in with forward plans - hopefully they are going to focus on our partnership and their other core assets onshore Colombia which are much cheaper to develop.

https://sclate.com/colombia/anadarko-returned-blogs-that-operated-with-ecopetrol-business/
https://www.bizjournals.com/houston/news/2019/06/26/occidental-reportedly-considers-selling-anadarkos.html

Nothing to do with today's price rise I guess, but Reuters are reporting that 10 of the 11 licences up for grabs in auction are decided and going to be assigned as there has only been 1 counter bid.

Amer and it's partners are not mentioned but the companies mentioned in the article demonstrate why Colombia is a good place to be in oil.

What is new and interesting is that other qualified operators (could include Amer/partners) have requested deals to operate dozens, "DOZENS" of other blocks and the government plans to offer another 20 blocks in September.

Things definitely appear to be picking up, the in-country presence of oil majors is bound to capture the attention of the investment community. Shell, Repsol, Noble, Sinopec and other big players now have acreage.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/colombia-oil/colombia-grants-oil-contracts-for-10-blocks-one-pending-idUKL2N23X0ZV

leas - agree entirely, we all need to take a very sceptical view of other posters.

And I reiterate " THERE ARE NO KNOWN PROBLEMS", I posted about water problems in-country last week but I have no idea if it's an issue for Amer in the same way social issues are not known to be effecting Amer operations.

In fact, I would go further than the OBA and say Amer have no significant known problems effecting operations in Colombia, sure there are always potential issues and I'm often the first to highlight, but currently everything is moving along nicely as far as any of us know,

Colonel - I've just posted about reading anything into a dip in throughput or rise and you come straight back with more speculation that has no merit all. I take it you disagree with me.

Talk of side-track dips in production, simulation, testing or otherwise is pure guess work - why bother.

"THERE IS NO KNOWN PROBLEM" that is where we are - but since someone found a website supposedly listing throughput quantities the speculation IMO to be blunt is silly.

It's like assuming that if someone does less miles in a car on a particular day the is a shortage of petrol or problem with the car, it's illogical.

Has anyone bothered to assess what storage capacity Amerisur have across their Plat patch or if third party storage is available? Many companies store weeks of production for various reasons it's a buffer that provides flexibility, lets throw another one in for good measure, perhaps Shell are not ready with a tanker and the company don't want to pay storage costs - what's the point in speculating.

In fact whilst we're on the subject, some time ago I queried Amerisur's storage capacity and suggested they could perhaps benefit from some facility in Ecuador to provide a buffer against many potential pipeline issues.