Member Info for jointhedots

Unlike many on the BB I don't see GTE as the main bidder here, except for 1 or 2 blocks that are close to theirs.

Occidental are now the main party that will benefit from acquiring the OBA and feeder blocks, and have the financial clout to sweep GTE aside. If we think it though how can Occidental stand a side and let the OBA slip through their fingers without a cast iron guarantee of throughput and cooperation. It would leave them vulnerable to unacceptable oil clearance constraints

GTE are probably the least prepared to take on a large land base and do not appear to have the financial clout to realise the price many are aspiring to (30p+) unless it's a cash and share swap offer.

What would really set this alight is interest (in the form of a bid) from a big hitter such as BP, Sinopec or Chevron to give Occidental a battle to fight.

Sol-1 just a little bolt -on, nothing dramatic in the RNS, I'm pleased "sort of" as it simply leaves things as they where with no new nasties .

However for the life of me I can't understand why this campaign is so slow - why isn't the rig already at Indico-2, a sceptical man might think there is a desire to keep a lid on production at CPO-5

ab76 - there is no need for Stifel to not trade on behalf of M&P and represent Amerisur at the same time.

Any entity that acts as a brokerage selling shares and trade as an investor also or advisor, the only requirement is that there are Chinese walls where appropriate - there are rules and some Brokers/MM have been prosecuted in the past.

Looks to me like M&P are executing small trades to test the market - even 1m shares is small on the scale of this - once they've established processes they can instruct appropriately to buy or sell across a range of parties.

Who truly knows what's going on, except they will all be careful not to break the rules in the current circumstances, I wouldn't worry about it until we have much more clarity.

It's an "indicative offer", M&P have not actually made an firm offer just sounded out the possibility.

Our BoD started to ball rolling, maybe to prevent M&P trying to gain some advantage by stealth.

M&P are owned by Pertamina

"ADNOC, Pertamina explores integrated oil and gas business cooperation"

ADNOC is the "Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC)", that is a huge pool of wealth potentially available to them and the agreement includes investment anywhere.

The article focuses on inter-country investment but also includes the statements:
"both parties will explore various other forms of strategic collaboration."
and
"This collaboration, added Al Jaber, will show the efforts of ADNOC to create value for the entire portfolio and its efforts to expand international investment."

They've already revealed that there is a strategic goal to "expand international investment" via the Amerisur offer, question is are they acting alone?

Perhaps M&P are fronting to try to get in as cheap as possible, they may have much deeper pockets than I thought after their penny pinching offer, I'm sure as soon as Abu Dhadi (richest of the Emirates) was mentioned in connection with any bid expectations of everyone would go up, just like the mere rumour of the involvement of Warren Buffett pushes prices up. I doubt they will declare if they have a hidden partner!

http://www.oilreviewmiddleeast.com/gas/adnoc-pertamina-explores-integrated-oil-and-gas-business-cooperation

I didn't say it in the last post, but it was implicit - I don't believe ONGC are responsible for dragging their heels recently as some do, there is another factor here.

For all the excitement (they promised excitement) now as last, the real excitement should be over operational activity and it seems to have ground to a halt.

So what on earth is going on? I think they've handled this situation really well (what a pity they led us into this, had they achieved half of what they promised the SP would have been well North of the current level in any case).

They've, handled IR well so far for a week in all but one respect, they desperately need to advise shareholders where we are operationally and what the near term future (next 3 months) holds operationally whilst the strategic review progresses - How the H*ll can they expect the nervous shareholders amongst us, some of whom will already have sold, to sit on their hands as they strongly advised.

As I've said already, my concern is in respect to the horrendous weather they had causing delays and potentially disrupting production mainly in the Llanos but possibly the Put region - it's the best explanation I can see for lack of an announcement, but we desperately need an update even to say all is OK after the torrential rain and major road closures in the region, slated to last for months. Fortunately it is now taken over by events (or has that precipitated events???).

What we are seeing is that massive pool of easily bought and recycled shares dwindling - the SP may now act like any other oil company in this situation and track real prospects with demand/supply, it been a long time since we've felt that was the case.

A penny a day rise in SP until this is resolved would see most of us right - how long does a strategic review take bearing in mind it should be completed prior to accepting any offer.

ChineseW - if you post any more on that I shall report you to thr BB police, I will assume you are simple reposting information and not part of a ramping crew - but I for one don't want any unsubstantiated rubbish on the BB.

Anyone making that up to make money is committing an offence and anyone aware of that and dealing is also guilty of an offence as it leads to genuine shareholders getting duped.

No more ascertions of special information from anyone please - it does a dis-service to us all unless backed by evidence.

Those new disclosures are from institutions buying at above 17p - what's the chance they or any other are in the market to commit to sell at 17p. That's usually the PI method buy high sell low. Whatever the SP rises to will set the base from which a premium is now judged. the 12p starting price is now a distant memory and will have no bearing on the final outcome.

BigB - sorry for labouring this but I simply want to understand twhat has actually occurred.

At times I have great difficulty in understanding the true significance of these declarations and I thing they are a rotten way of disclosing, allowing too much leeway to the submitter for ambiguity - this is evidenced by the never ending stream of Pi's asking what it means.

So my understanding is the FIL still have their shares or some of them and have not within that RNS notified any change, but they have notified that they have bought 102,168 shares on behalf of M&P, in which case it probably fair to assume they are co-operating though the ambiguity still persists because they may be simply acting as a broker for them.

I agree with your view it's worth watching, but I don't believe they've sold their shares(yet) , for me the most interesting imformation is the price 18p. If FIL bought them for M&P then the 17p bid is history, they will have to pay 18p upwards in cash under takeover rules and if FIL are working in concert with FIL then the higher of the price either party paid. It doesn't take a genius to work out getting a substantial holding at anything like 18p is virtually impossible now.

Anyone selling now- you're been warned by the BoD not to do it, no moaning later down the line or deramping (as some do as presumably they can't abide having missed out), just sell when you and go away please! Best of luck with finding a better investment. lol

Thanks Big B

Thanks for your reply BigB.

Can you please give a link to where FIL "As of yesterday they declared on behalf of Etablissements Maurel et Prom (M&P)." as I missed that. Cheers.

Also as I've said previously the II's that play ball with the bidder are only likely to give a commitment to sell to the bidder at this stage. Why would any II agree to sell so cheap when they can keep their options open unless they where for off before the bid surfaced?

Finally wrt competition, I would point out that Occidental where not the highest bidder for their 50% interest in Amerisur's Put blocks and now those bidders can now go for a much more valuable offering as it includes a spending carry and a fantastic experienced partner in Occidental rather than the tiddler Amerisur and crucially they become operator and therefore control the destiny of Occidental in the blocks (I can't see occidental wanting that.

So don't be swayed by the view of some posters that the best bids are likely to come from our partners, they'll most likely get some very tough competition and have to pay the going rate.

The whole thing could get very messy and aggressive as Occidental have form at keeping a low profile then coming in at the last with a killer punch - I think they will take their own sweet time and let M&P do their worst knowing they can brush them aside.

wrt CPO-5 - ONGC will again likely get competition, this time from Geo Park and possibly the nation oil company who together now control practically all the surrounding exploration blocks, I'm not convinced Parex will go for it unless in partnership. Geo Park where the most active of the bidders in the recent licence round and are operator of the prolific Llanos -34. I really don't think ONGC will ultimately buy CPO-5 as they are being pressed by the Indian government to sell assets, I suspect they could do a territory swap deal with Geo Park to stand aside so everyone wins.

wrt to Plat, I have no idea, it's small and seen better days, the N-sands really scuppered it, however the OBA now includes an oil trading business and is the jewel that thorny crown I suppose if packaged up with it Gran Tierra is an obvious buyer.

Currently the possibilities are seemingly endless, so why sell at a derisory price? If I had sold any of mine having waited so long I would think myself an idiot, bids fall through of course but there is far too much momentum here for something good not to happen IMO.

Big - please explain what you are talking about, I know there was some chatter on the BB yesterday about FIL selling but so what! What have they actually sold, have they actually sold, and how on earth do we know it was to our bidder taking them up.

For all those in doubt, anyone with an interest in more than 1% of the shares, short or long, at notification of the bid is required to notify within 10days - so no one is breaking any rules in not notifying immediately and those with something to hide or intending to take action are likely to withhold as long as possible. From there any entity taking or reducing a position over the threshold need to notify. All the details are contained at the end of the RNS rejecting the bid.

In practice accumulating a commitment to a few shares is meaningless now, they are going to need 75% votes or get to a very high commitment, much higher than 30% - bearing in mind those that hold back will be the most hawkish. If any entity or entities start to buy in open market the SP will start to spike, if it happen we should all be over the moon. It doesn't imply they will be successful in any bid though, just fearful someone lese will steal the prize.

All this speculation about that is a fair price, it is sad that of BoD have not managed half a dozen wells that should have already been drilled had they simply kept to their own script.

Even more frustrating is the question mark over the 3 big wells on CPO-5 that could have doubled the company's production. They said they would drill appropriate wells to prove up potential of Mariposa/Indico quickly even before starting Indico-1 then as usual went off script. Maybe ONGC are the cause, deliberately dragging their heels but nevertheless I think it's a fair question to ask why Indico-2 is not now drilling.

The upside is huge and IMO it would probably even worth Amerisur financing the whole well to prove it up as it changes the whole complexion of the bidding process as multiples of the current production would then be in clear site.

IMO we have no need to be concerned if the whole bid process comes to nought as an even better outcome is within our grasp - that's why our suitors are making their move now, get in before we realise true value is clear.

We have been let down by our BoD's pathetic rate of progress, such a pity.

What on earth is going on over at VOG, up near 10% and no news.
It isn't you having second thoughts and cashing out to pile back in there is it? lol

Some of the companies from the recent ANH auction and other licence deals include

Notable companies qualified to Bid in auction included: CNE Oil and Gas - Occidental Petroleum - Frontera Energy - Ecopetrol - Parex Resources - Hunt Overseas Oil Company - Gran Tierra Energy - GeoPark - Mansarovar Energy - Noble Energy and of course Amerisur Exploracion and another batch of companies, overall 22 companies at least.

The bidders where:
•Frontera Energy
•Parex Resources
•Gran Tierra Energy
•Geopark Colombia
•Ecopetrol Costa Afuera
•Hocol
•ONGC Videsh

Add to that other companies doing separate deals this year: Noble, Exxon, Shell, Parex and Repsol

The point is there a loads of potential bidders for Amerisur assets or the company lock, stock and barrel, in addition to the numerous names we know the actual offer from an previously unknown source demonstrates there a loads of additional potential suitors that we couldn't possibly identify.

Finally, I think it's worth a mention of a couple of other longshots, Carlyle and Tony Haywood, according to articles around 21 months ago travelled to Colombia to do a deal allegedly worth hundreds of £millions, it never happened but think they are still looking and he knows Colombia (Colombian wife!), I suppose the problem with Carlyle is that they are looking for under-priced assets and we are looking to be fairly priced as it's not a distressed sale.

The other cheeky outside chance (very slim) is perhaps Chevron, perhaps to frustrate Occidental who put their nose out by audaciously snatching Anadarko from them. They are presently operating in Colombia and apparently saw synergies and value in the Colombian assets as well as the shale assets. Now there would be a bidding war with Chevron becoming operator what an snub for Occidental. Between them they pushed the Anadarko price to levels no one in the industry expected.

Loads of options, some maybe outlandish, but we don't need to jump into the arms (trap) of Maurel & Prom, a pathetic offer - IMO anything sub 25p even as an opening offer should not be entertained for discussion.

It's reassuring that the buyers are still prepared to drive the price - everyone, almost everyone convinced to price of a sale will be much higher than 20p - no one buys or sticks with this for less than 10% upside surely, I would have thought most would expect 50%+ upside as I do.

It gets a little comical to watch certain posts try frantically to cool expectations yet stay calm and appear logical- they are stressed guys and desperate to create an agenda of concern.

The sheer optimism is unstoppable now unless something really nasty occurs from out of the blue, which is highly unlikely.

The reasons for these attempts are numerous, but I don't subscribe to the idea that there are paid trolls - there are idiots that thing it's fun , these are the genuine trolls and I've not seen any evidence of them, disgruntled sellers that haver missed the boat and amongst them the ones that want back in and those are the ones we are seeing now. Jealous individuals and those with a short agenda again there is no evidence of the latter. What I'm pointing out is that there are a whole host of pathetic reasons to try to mislead and most are best ignored after a couple of responses to set the story straight - if you can't resist them filter them.

There's nothing serious but a constant prodding that is annoying some to respond, for all those that are in, relax and enjoy, for all those that are not I would suggest the SP is not stretched in any way and the underlying business supports the market cap a couple of time over

We. have the industry's most notable over payer as a partner, they recently saw off an oil major, some feat, to buy Anadarko, defied major shareholders and brought in Warren Buffet.

They set their sites and get what they want, irrespective of the price, if they want our assets then it's game on, their CEO doesn't like to lose, just like GC claims "I don't like to lose, even at tiddly-winks" the lady will face off anyone as I think GC will not do for Amerisu.

There's no saying they'll be interested, but you can bet your life they won't want an Indonesian outfit running the show unless they are squeaky clean, French based or no Occidentals ethical reputation will be vital to them.

IMO it is highly they will now ask for an opportunity of first refusal and even operatorship irrespective of outcome - to the best of my knowledge they have not yet completed on the last block so we could have to give them their money back .

rhodi - I agree with all you say. no good options re Brexit, whichever side you are on it's a disaster, won't bore you with my views but as I say it has the potential to sweeten this deal and the BoD should play for time IMO, it's not peanuts.

Also the valuations appear to be getting more extravagant , what's wrong with £2/share or even £3, where does being silly start, if I make a case will everyone cheer me on now we're up to £1!

I've only stated what I would like, top side of 30p and what I believe may be acceptable to the majority 27.5p, I'm not even going to try to value the company, it's totally subjective at this stage, we may as well run a sweepstake.