Member Info for jointhedots

spike912 - of course it's new and significant.

It tells us the obvious but also some things implicitly.

Multiple parties have now declared a genuine interest, goes beyond merely sounding Amerisur out, justifies Amerisur rubbishing M&P offer.
Tells us the process start point and that it being run in a professional manner with the signing of non-disclosure agreements

That brings me to the thing that will potentially cause the SP to spike( 912), information is about to be released to multiple parties, many, many people who know that insider information is worth - IMO the chances of confidentiality being maintained is ZERO -I expect rumours, speculative (maybe insider) buying and a volatile SP.

Juxt - Thanks for adding some clarity, I've come across most things over the decades I've been investing in shares but It's easy get muddled up regularly and usually check before stating anything.

WRT buying and selling of Assets - there are definitely rules on that and we will get to vote. The BoD cannot buy/sell assets over a certain proportion of the company's value without a vote, I believe it can been seen as a takeover/reverse takeover in certain circumstances.

As you say it is not simply, but there are rules in place to protect existing shareholder interests and prevent us being stitched up.

Jux - my understanding is that it will take 75% in favour to guarantee a deal. I'm not sure of the precise rules but as I recall the takeover regulator can determine it to be compulsory or bidders must stand down - hence some investors with less than 50% interest claiming a blocking interest.

I've not checked the rules, so not sure is based on overall shares or % of those that bother to vote. assuming all II's will vote in favour is also a massive assumption.

The figure of 90% also rings a bell wrt a competitive process, I think an offer becomes compulsory after 90% acceptance of an offer (without vote) and sets the high price at which remaining shareholders must sell - don't recall where this idea came from so may be slightly muddled so check yourself.

Colonel - if Indico-2 is a gusher of 10000bpd+ then I suspect our BoD would hold off telling us about it in case we decided we wanted to hold onto our shares . lol

It is such a crazy situation where we have 3 potential blockbuster wells that take only a few weeks and cost peanuts to drill that appear to be delayed unnecessarily and without a satisfactory explanation of why. They could change everything and create a much higher price tag and reason not to sell for CPO-5

Fred - wasn't criticising your intention to sell at 24p, that's your choice and good luck to you, it was the fact you a limiting your gains maybe for the want of waiting 20minutes that I don't get, I'd be gutted literally hopping mad with myself to lose a huge profit. I was actually trying to get the point across to others that where thinking on similar lines to you, as long at you're happy all is well.

You inadvertently raise an interesting point Fred - I don't wish to be rude, but have you thought this through properly - same goes for anyone else with a sell trigger price set!!!!!

IMO, but what do I know, if news is released that causes the SP to spike to 24p or whatever buoyant level then that news is certainly going to be a game changer and could easily drive the SP quickly to 30p+ for example.

Could be a take out at 34p+ for example - which begs the question are you prepared to be a sitting duck to give shares away at a 10p+ discount.

Fred - I find it hard to believe you or anyone else has anything other than a stop loss set, even that IMO should be with a large margin from the current SP to avoid entrapment. Don't you think it's a bit silly mate or am I missing something (you're making it up for a laugh maybe)???

Who Michinoko are - Entrepreneur and Philanthropist "Jeremy Coller" , worth £300m according to Wiki and has a following of large investors prepared to put Billions into his investment projects. Hope everyone clocked it, the most important part of the RNS for me.

First thing to point out is that he seems like a good guy, very astute and very unlikely to crumble to a silly offer by anyone. I suspect if he wished he could take the company over and private, it's a long shot but who knows. A times article recently suggested he had issues with the BoD, maybe knowing he was disgruntled is what fired this whole process off - maybe Giles agreed to throw in the towel on brazening it out and drawing the wages and started putting out feelers.

I and others have been trying for a long time to discover the identity of Michinoko, I thought for a long time South African origin but looks like I was wrong, he seems to have strong Israeli ties.

I'm very pleased he is a proper businessman, and his financial strength perhaps explains why the BoD where prepared to stand up to Rex H.

Obviously he will look after himself and our interests will count for nothing, but it looks for now our interests are aligned with a savvy business who takes the long view (sold NONE).

This is what Wiki says about him:

"Coller's early career was spent as Head of Equity Research at Fidelity International. He then joined ICI Pension Plan as a Sector Fund Manager, before being promoted to Venture and Buyout Manager. In this role, Coller pioneered the purchase of secondary positions in private equity and became the first investor in VCFA.
In 1990, he started the first European private equity secondaries fund. Since then, Coller Capital has grown to become a globally recognised leader in the private equity secondaries market. Jeremy Coller is today recognised for leading the industrialisation of private equity secondaries.
He is Chief Investment Officer and Executive Chairman of Coller Capital, which has completed some of the largest transactions in the private equity secondary market. The firm employs around 185 people, and is headquartered in London, with additional offices in New York City and Hong Kong. In 2015, Coller Capital closed its latest secondaries fund, Coller International Partners VII, with total capital commitments of $7.15 billion and backing from approximately 170 of the world's leading institutional investors. Jeremy Coller promotes entrepreneurialism, in the UK and worldwide, and offers frequent support for the commercialisation of innovative ideas. "

"Coller has won numerous awards and has often been honoured for his contribution to the private equity and venture capital industries. These include:
Being named one of the Most Influential People in Private Equity by Financial News in 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013
Being voted Private Equity Personality of the Decade by Financial News[20] (awarded in 2013)"

What's strange about it?

Doesn't mean they've lost interest, if you think it though if they were in the market mopping up shares they would be undermining their offer and making it look even more ridiculous.

I expected they may hold a few % but as I said previously the opportunity to takeover by stealth was removed when the BoD released their RNS

I think we may be in the eye of a storm here, where everything is calm and there is a whirlwind of activity around us - I hope so.

Some here may be brow-beaten AIM investors who have been fed so much bull over the years that they are super-pessimists (as I usually am) but IMO the field of optimistically orientated potential buyers with a clear reason to be interested in Amerisur assets is too large for anyone to get in on the cheap - bring on the bidding war. lol

The BoD played a blinder be indicating they will consider offers for a sale of assets rather than the entire company - it brings in loads of new potential bidders and I guess means we get to keep the cash on the books if it goes that way and bidders for the whole outfit need to be competitive.

It could all kick off any day or take weeks, but I reckon the offers that come in will make it unrealistic for the SP to trade below the current SP levels even if the BoD decide not to sell.

Have apparently gone into partnership in the US.

It is not too much of a stretch to imagine they could team up in Colombia to take out Amerisur - both have big money at their disposal. Ecopetrol recently bought into neighbouring blocks with Geo Park. Perhaps they have been overlooked unfairly as potential bidders as they seem to have make a play for many recent opps.

"Colombia's state-owned oil company Ecopetrol said it has formed a joint venture with Occidental Petroleum to develop sites in the Midland Basin in the Permian Basin in west Texas. Ecopetrol will pay $750m in cash and another $750m in carried capital for a 49% stake in the new company. Occidental will own 51% and operate the joint venture, Ecopetrol said in a press release. Ecopetrol will pay 75% of Occidental's share of investments during the five-year carry period."

I just watched a Bloomberg interview with the CEO of occidental from 2018 - impressive woman.

I knew they where efficient but what was interesting was that she said they make money in the Permian down to $40/barrel West Texas Intermediate of course (Brent much higher price normally) some or their wells make profit at $30/barrel and overall she would like to see oil prices at $60/barrel.

With that in mind I think Amerisur will look attractive to them whatever the oil price moves to.

Amerisur's cost structure is good but they and the other potential bidders will believe they can improve drastically, our BoD have been extremely poor WRT cost control (and self control), if they are interested I personally wold welcome a share swap with one of the better operators if it led to a higher offer - especially the US outfits Occidental or Geo Park (strengthening $ weak £ means extra gains)

Th

Now, now Bigsmoke, less of the sarcasm, I know you are seasoned (maybe even scarred for life like me! ) we both invested in VOG so know all about getting stitched up - lets hope our directors here change their ways and do the right thing for once - god knows they've had more than their share already.

Ignore the headline spread , especially early in the day - the MM's are cautious and not really open for trade and merely test the market with a wide unpalatable spread at both ends.

You also need to test the Offer/Bid with a dummy trade, for instance I was offered 18.2p to sell.

On balance early morning and the mid afternoon dip is currently likely to be the worst time to trade in any session in the absence of news IMO.

Colonel your comment : "Imagine M&P calling around the large II holders and saying ... erm out of interest, would you pledge your shares to us if we said 25p a share?"

I'm not sure those conversations are legal "what if, wink, wink , nudge, nudge" - as if two parties are conspiring to co-operator in a takeover situation they are actually working in concert - in which case they have to declare their joint position. The risk to a potential bidder is very high as they can be told that they must drop their interest if they don't play by the rules, only takes one II to report them.

I'm sure they can have conversations but they idea they can take over by stealth is far fetched, as I said yesterday - any party is going to have to pay a fair price.

Hold your nerve guys, sit on your hands if you can't trust yourself.

Any movement now will be peanuts in comparison to what might lay just ahead.

50cc - they are a public organisation and incredibly bureaucratic - wouldn't be surprised if they tendered for a box of teabags or sugar.

It's been one of the problems we're had getting anything done on CPO-5 - useless about sums it up

They may well already have preferred bidders in mind but have to go through the process, India and worse still Indian government is renowned for unnecessary red tape. Also perhaps an existing provider works for both parties on multiple issues and they need an independent

lonestag - there's not much to see in this one, I go to scope of work for each to see what they're all about .

http://www.ongcvidesh.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Tenderdoc-Legal-services-2019.pdf

ONGC have now released a tender document for provision of Legal services in Colombia "HIRING OF LEGAL SERVICES".

May well be to represent the partnership in CPO-5 as well a other interests in Colombia - equally it could be because they are going to have need of legal services in respect to a bid for Amerisur assets!!!

But neither CPO-5. Amerisur or partnerships are mentioned

Strange the contract for hat kind of service now - must be expecting some increase in demand.

The tender I want to see is for that elusive second rig, that prospect is even more remote now

Guys - all of you

Stop fretting about the offer price, if it's too low it won't be acceptable, it's as simple as that - the BoD like us will want the best outcome and whatever any analyst says, anyone speculates or potential bidder spreads as a rumour in the next few weeks will make no difference.

The BoD gave very clear advise in the RNS, don't be tempted to sell at ludicrous prices - if you lose your nerve and sell it's your own stupid fault, no one can force us to sell, it will take at least 75% of shareholders to crumble to a pathetic offer - isn't going to happen unless the world turns upside-down.

No one can accumulate the necessary shares to takeover at anything like current prices, that route on the cheap has been closed down now the BoD have let the cat out of the bag, as has any chance of taking over by stealth by ousting the BoD.

Get a grip - this is a fight for us to win, the BoD have launched a strategic review which provides the potential to tell them all to sod off if the offers are derisory or tease out the very best offers if we are to be sold - this is not a fire sale.

Apologies if the above appears condescending to anyone but I feel some posters are drifting unnecessarily into pessimism and need to take a step back here.

We should all be very content at this stage.

I don't think it's Heaven mate.

The saying varies from everything (all things) to nothing - but if you're holding out for heaven you're going to have a long wait.

"50p/share comes to he who waits" will do nicely