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Good stuff, it's great that there are a fair number of posters still keeping an eye on things rather than exclusively fretting over the SP. I didn't come across a comprehensive company listing yet if you or anyone else for that matter finds one - please post.

The names of the bidders for the 2nd licencing round have been released by ANH, apparently there are 27 including some new international names and companies well known to Amerisur shareholders - I suggest most of these companies are potentially interested in Amerisur and our ultimate purchaser will almost certainly be one on them.

Of particular interest is the inclusion of 2 Chinese giants Sinopec partnering with dead leg ONGC via Mansarovar and a new contender CNOOC who already own blocks in Colombia having bought Canadian oil company Nexen in 2013. Interestingly Nexen was originally Canadian Occidental Petroleum and owned by our pals Occidental. Anyway they have real clout on the same scale overseas as Sinopec and Occidental so a new name to add to the list of potential Amerisur suitors. Coincidentally Occidental's new partnership with Ecopetrol was signed off today. Make no mistake many of these companies have the clout to bid for what is actually a small number of early stage blocks and Amerisur concurrently.

Notice Amerisur are also listed in the list of interested bidders, though I guess it's just for show. List apparently includes:

Noble Energy (US), Parex Resources (Canada), Ecopetrol, Frontera Energy, Gran Tierra Energy (Canada), Occidental de Colombia, Hunt Overseas Oil Company (US), Amerisur Exploracion Colombia Limited , Mansarovar Energy, ONGC Videsh, Norway's Interoil, Argentina's PetroSud and US independent Vetra.

There are others as well as new companies still trying to get clearance to bid.

Have RBC really changed their viewpoint on price ?

What appears to have actually changed is the Amerisur SP, at a higher SP the RBC target price which appears up until recently have been the offer price from M&P of 17p. So at the 19p + price when the recent recommendation was put together it must be underperform instead of Sector Performer.

No new price is provided by shares magazine. To be frank, it all looks like lazy transposition of the information to me, if you look at the price column it contains the current mid SP for all broker recommendations which makes a nonsense of the chart as it does not provide either a current or target price for the recommendations The previous recommendation in terms of price target could easily be exactly the same as the new one.

To know what RBC really think would require a look are their recommendations (but they were not fans beforehand if they thought 17 was a fair target).

willec - you make the most pertinent point of the day, GC is allegedly a cricket nut and that could be the driver for timescales.

GET-on-IT - since when did you inherit the mantle of Nostradamus? Your 12p assertion and is just drivel, you cannot possible know what the SP will go to in the event of a no deal ( and yes a no deal is possible as you say). It's just your opinion or more to the point a glib, pointless prediction that you haven't thought through.

The BoD instructed all bidders to make a play for the whole company, it that fall though then surely Plan B comes into play. As all options will not have been considered the BoD can then announce further talks progressing. IMO that where potential standalone bids for assets come from ONGC, GTE and others. The BoD are hardly likely to roll over and simply say "we failed", that will be a first for them, the company will not simply fall in a heap. Your post bears out what I have just said, many new posters don't understand what's going on - all credit to those that have clearly made the effort.

I'm at a loss to understand the logic of fretting over the sale of a few thousand shares or even a million shares - it is meaningless now for investors, the ultimate price will be whatever the best offer is for all except those that are in for a quick buck and sell too soon. selling for a little profit and so they want or even need (T20) the SP to bounce around.

So I conclude those that are obsessed day after day trying to ramp or deramp for a fraction of a penny are not committed to seeing this through at all, there are a lot of new posters that don't even seem to understand what they have bought into - nothing any of us thinks or suggest will change the course of this now. Personally, I really don't care if millions of shares change hands or the SP drops or rises a penny or two as long a none of our main shareholders don't start dumping - we have many shareholders who could sell 10s of millions of shares if they so wished, it should be a big clue to everyone on the direction this is going that they are not selling.

IIs are holding steady, investors in prior to the bid announcement are holding steady (those that wanted out at current prices are out). so where's the problem and why on earth would investors throw the towel in this morning simply because there is no RNS, speculators maybe selling but they will always be transient and help keep a healthy turnover.

There is so much nonsense being discussed on the BB, we need the BoD would hurry up and put us out of our misery then we can all move on to our next best thing.

"All offers MUsT be in cash!"

Guys, that is not true and the same goes for the suggestion that offers must be for the entire company.

Those may well be the preferences of the BoD and some major shareholders, but, be in no doubt offers can be made in whatever form interested parties choose. It may be greeted frostily or rejected without consideration by the BoD, however I for one will consider an offer in shares that is the most lucrative and I'm sure others would prefer the same outcome - to maximise profits.

Any offerer rebuffed may well feel aggrieved and go aggressive - that's where we start getting into premium value territory IMO.

The statement from the BoD about offers for the whole company may well have the intention of getting bidders to partner up to make the process easier to judge and any recommendation to be justified to shareholders as a clean exit - that does not mean all parties will comply. I keep reverting back to the Oxy deal for Anadarko to back up my thoughts because it is an excellent example - in that case a deal was all but done with Chevron (75% shares and 25% cash) with BoD backing when Oxy simply came in with an aggressive too good to ignore bid which had a smaller 22% shares element. Note in both cases the deal includes shares though I'm sure Anadarko's BoD would have liked cash just like our BoD.

What our BoD wants and what our BoD gets may well be totally different, lets wait and see.

Oh, finally various posters keep coming forward with suggestion that this that or the other timescale applies - it's all bunkum, the clue is in the RNS where the BoD says "The Company is seeking to conclude the FSP in Q4 2019. Further updates will be provided in due course.".

There is no fixed date it is simply an aspiration they are "seeking", in my experience this flexi-time wording is always the case with Amerisur.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/06/occidental-revises-bid-for-anadarko-in-buyout-battle-with-chevron.html

CD - Oxy Colombia are the companies best performing operations, some feat considering they are very efficient in all they do. I posted about a month ago (as I recall) a link to an article in which the Oxy CEO extolled the virtues of their Colombia operations.

Someone has recently just posted that it has been all bad news from Oxy recently, that is patently and absolutely untrue:

- they bought Anadarko recently with the backing of Warren Buffet operations which an oil major wanted and included a Colombian presence
- operationally they are doing fine, as I said yesterday their reported losses where expected and largely due to purchasing costs of Anadarko.
- they have announced the completion of the sale of multiply assets as intended to rebalance their debt
- and IMO most interestingly they have partnered up with Ecopetrol who will cover the costs to go fracking on some of their acreage in the US, they are after all now the world's largest fracking company after the purchase of Anadarko.

That leads in to the suggestion I made yesterday that Ecopetrol is a likely candidate to bid for Amerisur, the reasoning is:
- they are looking to expand and have a war chest to invest
- a stated aim of partnering with Oxy is to learn their staff about fracking (why?)
- Ecopertol and the Colombian government want to start fracking in Colombia to fulfil the desperate need to replace production
- Amerisur's large blocks could potentially hold large quantities of heavy oil including reserves with fracking potential. so ideal opportunity to extend their partnership and go large scale.

Then there is my third pick Geo Park, they have just partnered with an Ecopetrol subsidiary to take on all the block offered around CPO-5 as well as holding a share in Llanos 34. So again 2 companies have shown commitment to asset which fit nicely with Amerisur's.

Hence my belief those 3 companies will be right in there, perhaps begrudgingly having to include ONGC, trying to acquire at least part of the estate, time will tell but any suggestion that Oxy (or either of the other companies)are under stress or haven't got the clout is way off the mark.

I saw the Oxy news yesterday, didn't bother posting, they are cutting back "NEXT" and only cutting not stopping, they've buy whatever they set their sight on.

The so-called huge losses are nothing of the sort they are one offs associated with the takeovers of Anadarko and a hit through the lower oil price - their operations are excellent (world class) and they always intended to spend carefully and dispose of peripheral assets after spending a fortune on Anadarko..

You need to consider that Oxy regard projects costing a few hundred million $ as small scale, if they want Amerisur they'll get Amerisur.

My prediction is that the buyers of Amerisur will comprise some or all of : Oxy, Geo Park and especially Ecopetrol who are in buying/expansion mode or a completely new entrant.

It takes a special group of Executives to achieve so little progress against their published programme's over a year , 3 years, 5 years and even 10 years.

Very special indeed , to get away with it unscathed and still Pi's say they'll be happy with them if they get a simply realistic SP for throwing in the towel a SP that had they performed as "THEY" suggested would look like peanuts, even at 50p would be peanuts.

I know this post will be unpopular, probably with CD telling me how wrong I am but facts are facts and the information is there for all to check in RNS's, everything as been behind schedule.

Hopefully we will all be released from this with a handsome premium over the current SP, I believe that will be the outcome, that's something we can agree on I think. But what is really scary is the lack of any apparent progress as if a suitable offer is not received (17p or even 20p ish is not regarded as acceptable to me) the current failings will bite us very hard.

We've still got up to 6 wells to drill before year end, easy peasy! lol

"up to" can mean none, and is often Amerisur code for just that. All the institutions that invested at 25p to execute a work programme presented by the BoD and now seeing the cash still sitting in the bank with year after year of directors lining their pockets, well they must be P*ssed to say the least and ever likely the BoD needed to sound out buyers. Surely none of you think M&P launched their speculative offer out of the blue? I'm convinced we started the conversation with potential buyers. The article about Michinoko allegedly planning on voting against the BoD at the AGM where was probably factual (in the Times as I recall), and IMO this whole process accelerated at that point.

So don't hero worship them, the BoD have been hopeless, and I wouldn't invest in another of their ventures this side of my 200th birthday, almost everyone loses money until they decide to cash out, IMO now is the time to buy Amerisur

Anyway, having given up on the drilling programme and moving on, I'm still hoping far an Amerisur free XMas, the best pressy I could hope for.

BigMan21 - Correct. I have no idea about you, but your post is exactly the form taken be derampers to instil doubt - please explain why you or anyone else would take the very high impact risk of staying invested here for 20pish, as it doesn't make sense to me irrespective of what you have invested (I don't distinguish between newbies with a tiny investment or big hitters, all have valid opinions).

I'm expecting a good result, if I thought 20pish my money would be elsewhere as of today, argue back by all means.

BigMan21 - then this is clearly not a worthwhile investment for you with such a meagre uplift if any, only peanuts in your opinion - we won't be hearing from you again then, bye.

I think the chances are that our eventual buyer will be a consortium of some sort, the trend in Colombia is to partner up as evidenced in recent block bids, The companies avoid going head to head unless pushed. So I suspect there may be several groupings vying for the prize. The list below provides a flavour of the extent of interaction and it only scratches the surface you can more or less mix and match any of them.

The stance of any new entrants could completely upset the balance and add some extra competition, I believe the chances of Gran ~Tierra buying us out solo are just about ZERO, they simply havn't got the financial clout unless we're sold for a pittance.

Ecopetrol - Geopark...Blocks in Llanos
Ecopertol - Repsol - Exxon.....Offshore exploration
Ecopertol - Repsol .....Akacias field
Ecopetrol - Talisman Energy natural gas
Geopark - Parex...Llanos 34 block
ONGC - Geopark....Explore opportunities
ONGC - Occidental.....Just announced fracking partnership
ONGC - Sinopec....Partnership
Ecopetrol - Occidental....Various including pipeline

"In these circumstances my experience of M&A over last 30 years is that whatever the market deems a strategic asset is worth is usually wrong. Endless valuation exercises on here are fruitless as ultimately the value of the business will be how it fits/aligns with the purchaser's commercial strategy."

Exactly, the endless stream of valuation based on this that and the other is absolutely pointless, irrespective of how clever it looks, the value will be determined by the buyers and it doesn't matter a toss what the market or analysts think.

As I've said previously, we need 2 or more buyers determined to win and the icing on the cake for one party to go aggressive as Occidental did with Anadarko where the sale price was higher than any observer thought possible. We need to remember that none of the potential buyers are currently buying the shares, even M&P joined the process - I assume that restriction may be withdrawn once the selection process is over, depends what they signed up for.

All the removed tender docs from the ONGC website have been restored (not sure if adjusted), more interestingly IMO, there are three new tenders one for Seismic, for aerial Photography and the other for Slickline services on the completed wells.

WRT the one for Slickline services for the completed wells and possibly others provides some useful well information and future intent. Notice the wells flow rates and parameters particularly for Mariposa-1 appear to be holding up brilliantly, IMO there is much more oil down there than current estimates. So the mention of a submersible pump IMO should signal intent to increase production and test what is really achievable, to the best of my knowledge the only other reason for a pump is if production is flagging and that is a dire response that can ruin the well (I remember GENL drawing like hell on their wells and eventually sucking up water and ruining the field ) - that's not what ONGC will ever do, they may be slow but they are cautious and do things right.

IMO this perhaps points (I'm no expert) to ONGC opening up production, maybe a big jump if mirrored across 4 or more wells - as I recall our BoD wanted them to do just that ages ago.

From RNS:
"Existing wells are producing under self-flow condition thru a suitable completion string for natural flow with 3-1/2” eue tubing. However, In the future is envisage a completion string with an artificial lift method such as ESP equipment.....
…..The production parameters of existing wells are given below for reference, however ONGC-VL does not guarantee the same parameters for upcoming wells, considering that will be exploratory wells. "

and
"
Mariposa-1 Parameters ? Producer sand: Lower sands-3 / Une formation ? Fluid rate ( oil + water): 3142 BPD ? Oil rate: 3127 BPOP ? BS&W: 0.049 % ? API: 40.0° ? BHT: 248°F ? THT: 172°F ? Gas rate: 121,935Kscfd ? GOR: 38,99 scf/stb

Indico-1X Parameters ? Producer sand: Lower sands-3 / Une formation ? Fluid rate ( oil + water): 4675 BPD ? Oil rate: 4669 BPOP ? BS&W: 0.120 % ? API: 35° ? BHT: 220°F ? THT: 180°F ? Gas rate: 46,565Kscfd ? GOR: 9,97 scf/stb "

http://www.ongcvidesh.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/BD-_CO_225_2019_47-Slickline-Services.pdf

Col - FYI. I've just taken a look for the tender elsewhere and found a version of it from elsewhere where they've not yet removed it - I don't know if it's exactly the same a I saw yesterday as it's not on the official website.

However, proves what I said was/is true, as it contains the header statement detail:

"Tender For Hiring Of Drilling Rig For Two Firm Wells At Llanos Basin In The Meta Department In Cpo5 Block, Colombia."

Note "Firm Wells", not pretend this time as I recalled without any access to the link at the time .

Don't bother with an apology, if you can't be arsed to do any research yourself think twice before accusing someone of lying in future - just carry on with your pointless ramping

https://www.tenderdetail.com/Indian-Tenders/TenderNotice/22165082/A0FB9D1D9D8EACD5CF6D624A9979FCAF

Colonel - I'm usually quite a patient and tolerant person and rarely take offence - but for you as a thoroughly annoying chump that doesn't actually know what he is talking about when being unnecessarily rude - I 'll make an exception.

Though I should have no need to defend myself for what I posted, I've never deceived anyone or tried to do so, I'm not trying ramp or deramp, unlike your obvious approach since starting to post - You may not know, but I've posted on the same subject of drilling programmes being impossible in previous years and proven right when the BoD eventually came up with some BS excuses, I've already been through this you really don't know what you are talking about.

If you are accusing me of making up the activity on the ONGC website then you owe me an apology, I never make things up and present them as fact, if it's my opinion it clear to understand that's the case. You have the distinction of calling me a liar, a first on the BB. I have previously posted links and comments on some of the removed tenders to which I referred (I'm sure others will have seen them - that's clearly checkable, you have no reason to believe I made up the posted tender detail either except it doesn't tally with the narrative you are peddling - why else would you be so offended.

I say good things, I say bad about the company - I say it as I see it and you and others have often dislike that - wise up this is a forum for debate not glorifying the management and kidding yourselves everything is rosy.

You are truly ignorant and truly a disgrace to accuse me or anyone else of lying without any evidence - a doubt your ramping posts stand up to scrutiny.

A check of the ONGC website this morning reveals that the recent Invitations to Tender(ITT) in respect to CPO-5 have been removed from the list e.g. well testing. But all is not what it seems as I also looked last night and a tender had just been added for the provision of a drill rig for 2 wells in CPO-5, at the time didn't know if I should be angry or bust a gut laughing as the title of the invitation suggested that this time the request was for REAL wells, I think the word was "confirmed".

I think they've hastily removed that as it perhaps inadvertently suggested previous tender exercises where a farce, we all know what the reason for that might be.

The document was structured such I thought it a little incomplete so perhaps it was posted in error and we were not supposed to see that the programme is ready to kick off in earnest (after we've sold). Of course I could be completely wrong and the tender was for 2 additional wells, but the plan illustrating the road network was an area directly over Indico and had Aguila on it Sol-1 and Mariposa 1

IMO there is a p*ss take going on here, there is not a snowball in Hell's chance of Amerisur drilling 6 wells this year and based of similar previous years we'll be lucky to get 1. IMO our BoD are not providing price sensitive information in a timely manner as they are required to do - I think in the US misled shareholders can sue, not sure about UK.

They need to come clean with shareholders, they have a duty to inform the market, we should all be now getting angry as they appear to have downed tools - there is no evidence of any activity across the estate. At the very least there should be an update on Indico-2 as their previous announcements have misled shareholders IMO

Hopefully, the sales process will conclude with a deal, but they still have a job to do running the company, they're picking up wages and benefits and should look after our interests

bb123 - if the company is not sold the SP will soar as they develop their blocks and production mushrooms, then it will be sold at a premium to the inflated price.

So sleep easy, it's a big win or a bigger win later.

Carry of making with the Zzzzzz - IMO you should not invest in anything more risky than a deposit account if you trust posters on a BB to advise you what to invest in - no disrespect to anyone on the BB's but none of us are qualified to give advise via this media.