Member Info for jointhedots

Albi1 - don't bother trying to understand them, there are lots of reasons from distress, genuine concern, misunderstanding to the darker end of trying to push down the SP and the real nasty mischief. There are lots out there that revel in the distress of others, I 've seen it on many BB's often with no empathy shown even glee towards those that may have had a severe financial shock.

I noticed that as the positive posts have dissipated in the face of the onslaught of rumour and false claims against Hur, the doomsayers have eased off - their work done they ease off but rest assured they will be back in force to attempt to quash any good news.

Hur are at a moment of uncertainty and it has been exploited, there is no reason to suggest Dr Trice has been anything other than exemplary, there has been a lot of absolute nonsense presented as expert knowledge or analysis, complete drivel . The business case for Hur is unchanged and still very bright, in the meantime the doomsayers are best ignored IMO.

cadell - good post, that's what I was getting at, you say it much more succinctly though.

IMO a bid is possible, maybe not welcome and it really doesn't matter if the data room is open or padlocked, buyers can force it to open.

To be back hovering just above 30p after all the progress made, is more then a little unrealistic IMO.

Being a recent return investor after selling up when the, IMO idiot, finance director trashed the SP and optimism with bad financial choices, I cast my mind back to statements made around that time about a potential out for the company's shareholders

Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't it the intention to sell the assets and move on, Dr. Trice even commenting on other prospects they where aware of, to chase after cashing out???. The EPS was not intended to point the way for Hur to attempt FF development even with a partner, simply to demonstrate proof of concept to potential purchasers with deep pockets for a lucrative sale.

Clearly things have moved on since and we already have 1 new partner, but to my knowledge a new strategy has never been communicated. In fact I also recollect Dr' Trice commenting that Hur where not destined to be a full scale operator after positioning to secure a buyer.

With that in mind and recent bundled, again IMO, news flows which have trashed the SP, and the potential for a main listing which will likely bring in a whole new group of investors with much bigger financial clout - isn't this a good time for a potential purchaser to make their move if indeed industry experts do actually understand the EPS data as pre the companies assertion. With the SP low and the future still not mapped, not great from a shareholder perspective but what about from a takeover target perspective.

Guys you are reading too much into the CA moves.

If you look back a little further into their actions they exercised a quantity of Warrants at 20p and it looks to me they are most likely really just balancing their books by realising profits to offset losses. probably needed before year end.

An institution selling out does not buy and sell shares, they just sell. On the flip side the chances of them increasing their holding materially are on par with the chances of seeing a flying pig.

Probably my last post on hear - so all the best to all in your future investments and endeavours and a happy festive season.

No good crying over spilt milk now

The stresses we go through by owning AIM shares is worthy of a Mel Brooks spoof, are we being deceived, will it fall in a heap, what is it I don't know and on and on.

Guys - we've just had an RNS that clarified the operational position, there's no current known problem, and there is a coherent plan going forward. The current SP weakness is easily reconciled by the current pressures and anxiety of shareholders simply makes it worse.

We worry about, watering out, CA selling, work programme or anything else anyone can conjure up to create fear. the truth is simple, the prospects are virtually limitless and IMO it's a all about having the patience to let this pan out.

GA - I've voted my shares "NO" but I'm not going to the meeting, I'm not prepared to spent any more money or time on this until we have something to fight for. I've eased off posting as I have nothing useful to say really until something changes

Very unhappy with the BoD, but the vote will really be dependent on if some institutions or groups of are plotting something behind the scenes - we're done our bit this time, many have voted against and if I went to the meeting I'd be tempted to hit someone

At first glance it looks like 6 Well at 14,700 barrels with minimal water cut is performing much better than 7Z Well flowed at approximately 9,400 barrels.

Acting as 1 well as the company suggests on the face of it looked strange to me, I know the fracturing could be slightly different but the model must suggest some consistency or reserves could not be calculated. However when the water is taken into account the actual flow rate is up to 13400bpd so the 2 wells do look aligned and I wonder is the water density/mobility difference might account for the small remaining variance. My point is once the water is drained then we should expect both well performances to align.

The water has been discussed agonisingly, but I would add one thing any % advised will surely be an average and it may rise and fall as pockets of perched water are exhausted - some of you seem to be looking a problems where there are none.

RNS extract:
" 205/21a-6 well ("6 Well") and 205-21a-7Z well ("7Z Well") are only 350 metres apart. Data gathered thus far indicates immediate and strong pressure communication between the wells, suggesting that together they act as a single well. Furthermore, the Company believes that only approximately 50-60 metres of each 1 kilometre wellbore is contributing to production. Both wells are currently drawing on only a small section of the reservoir. Since late October, Hurricane has been carrying out individual flow tests to establish the optimum combined flow rate from the two wells under these conditions, and to assess individual well fluid dynamics. These results will refine understanding of reservoir performance without the impact of interference from the other well.

The 6 Well is currently flowing individually at approximately 14,700 barrels of oil per day with minimal water cut. In a prior individual well test, the 7Z Well flowed at approximately 9,400 barrels of oil per day with a stable water cut within a range of between 25-30%. These rates were achieved on natural flow. In both cases, the bottom hole pressure showed minimal decline"

Puts to bed the water issue

" Furthermore, the Company believes that only approximately 50-60 metres of each 1 kilometre wellbore is contributing to production. Both wells are currently drawing on only a small section of the reservoir. "

So it is drawing oil laterally and the fluids in 940m (1000-60) of X-section are barely moving .

They just dropped the SP into negative territory so I tied to buy some, HL couldn't get a quote except for a few hundred.

Subsequently when the SP retraced I got the quote for £5.5k, looks like a spoof drop to me to perhaps pick up cheap shares from mugs of over-stretching shorters.

I stand by what I said earlier about waiting for the dust to settle from the election. Today was always likely to be volatile as investors take their risk on/off positions

sookma - "Any rise is getting sold into. I don't think this is the end of this horrible downturn to be honest. There might be a final capitulation round the corner, possibly to the low 20's?"

Bless - trying to introduce the negative agenda again posing a statement as a question, "capitulation" - of course that might happen but you infer it is likely - absolutely ridiculous.

We've been free of deramping most of the day, you pose a non-question that makes no sense using "might" and possibly, so the only answer is YES.

Answer my non-question then: There might be a final surge round the corner, possibly to the low 200's? Answer must also be an implausible YES, as it would be for " There might be a final capitulation round the corner, possibly due to aliens?"

haggis_trap - I agree with you sentiments on the election, it's as disaster for the nation and only a question of which option is worse. Michael Heseltine put it well on the Andrew Neil show last night. Many people Tory and Labour are deeply torn, both leaders "unchecked" are likely to trash the nation. all those that are thoughtful and care want a good outcome, a hung parliament appears the UK's only chance.

I am a traditional Tory voter, but cannot vote for a liar and would have voted for moderate Labour to end the disaster but for them going AWAL and electing a communist they would have completely crushed the Conservatives.

That aside my original post was actually none political and looked at it purely from a shareholder viewpoint on one issue.

There are various well discussed reasons for the SP weakness and selling pressure, but there is one glaringly obvious reason for buyers not entering the fray - the Election has potentially dire consequences for any oil company operating in British waters or even operating out of the UK.

However unlikely (near impossible), if Mr Corbyn wins the election he will allegedly impose high taxes on operators, "windfall taxes" and has accepted it will mean retraining workers in Aberdeen who lose their jobs. Hence IMO at least some of the falls in SP of operators.

Obviously, HUR are not making huge profits to tax - but I think many of you have lost sight of what is going on here, the company is proving up their concept with the EPS in order to bring in a big operator to fund FF development.

We are surely being watched by potential buyers of partial or total assets, BP reckon they can operate in UK waters at very low cost - the logical consequence is that HUR looks like a tasty morsel - conversely if labour introduce high taxes big operators may well stay clear even abandon operations - with severe implications for HUR. All big US operators have already left as I understand

Personally, I don't think Corbyn has a hope in hell of implementing his loony policies as coalition partners would stop him doing stupid things - so I'm quite relaxed - but I'm sure some investors will have taken action.

It also makes sense that the company hold fire with news, particularly good news until after the election so that it is not lost in the pile of nonsense that surrounds it.

Today may be another ropey day, but tomorrow is a different story.

There is no definitive % for the water or if it will be consistent - it's common sense that it will vary. It will be dependent upon the location of the wells in respect to the so-called perched water and what the volume of it is, as production progressed more water and oil will migrate towards the wells the % is unknown. But as oil is lighter than water the oil the assumption is that the water will stay as a low % and I guess at some times will rise or tend to 0.

The whole issue goes back to the assessment of the company in respect to the fracturing, if the ground is highly fractured as assumed the underlying water should rise steadily as oil is removed across a wide area - the suggestion is than the underlying water is coning, that can have 2 causes I believe. Either they are drawing off oil too fast ( Genl mistake) , that can be rectified. The alternative is that the fracture model is wrong, that IMO is much more serious as it means there is less oil or if they are unlucky there could be preferential paths from the base to wells (could be fault line) again slowing production could resolve.

My interpretation may be flawed but it's as good as anything presented here and the point is we need to let the management do the testing and advise the result and if necessary tweak operations - there is NO REASON to believe there is even a problem let alone a serious one. No unexpected deterioration or deviation from expectations, though some would have you believe the game is over and we're all doomed.

They could issue an RNS if they had a reason to do so - all we have currently is a load of whispers on the BB's with absolutely no foundation - there may be a problem, there may be no problem - we don't know.

However, they have said very recently that they will update the market in December and given no one any reason to think there is a problem - why would or should they react to the desires of a few PI's to arrest the fall in SP.

It will recover and recover strongly if the news warrants it, so I repeat it's stick or twist depending on your risk appetite. I asked at the end of last week for any evidence of a problem - still haven't seen anything so I take it no one knows anything other than what everyone knows.

Corral - - " unhinged" and it's funny - really?

I merely pointed out your post was misleading and yes constituted "drivel", you had not done any research, proper calculation just blasted out misleading figures, maybe not intentionally - but even when you corrected yourself you compounded the error by getting it wrong again which I also saw but was prepared to ignore.

It is important to be correct, you, I and everyone else needs to be challenged if providing mis-leading information, I'm not suggesting you are ramping/deramping or doing it on purpose and my post was not specific to you. But your posts are read and no one is unhinged simply for challenging you - for god's sake posters are recommending your mis-information. Do your research and understand your investment guys - I don't fully believe anything unless I confirm it myself, no wonder some of you are fearful if you don't understand .

As I pointed out last week this BB is now full of unsubstantiated drivel - I advise keep your wits about you and don't trust so-called experts or comment by posters supposedly informed by non public data. Sentiment is indeed poor, but it is being fosters by certain posters.

Now we know the reason (or part of the cause) it should give confidence - information is power.

For instance, look no further for dis-information than a post by Corral-Part this morning:

"They sold approximately 225,000,000 shares by my calculation, about 15.5% of their holding"

What on earth does that mean there are less than 2bn shares in issue, are you suggestion they owned practically all the issued stock?

In light of the above I decided to check recent activity by examining RNS's:

CA where buying in Spring, notified buys in March and May.
On 09/05/2019 went from 4.87% with 95523582 to 5.51% with 109642789
On 04/12/2019 went from 5.51% with 109642789 to 4.81% with 95822110

So they've sold approximately 1/8 of their shares - we all make adjustments like that from time to time - a problem arises only if they intend to dump shares into a lower price - there is no evidence of that yet and from the above "nothing extraordinary" time will tell.

So they dabble and have merely reduced their position, possibly over several months, the reason for that action can be debated but the suggestion they are in the know regarding something negative is UTTER DRIVEL, if they are insiders and privy to information then they can't sell.

Possibilities include, reducing as a matter of policy change/reducing risk/ perceived reduced potential as a result of drilling programme/need the money/etc -who knows.

But they have simply reduced their position to where it was in May - was it a punt that went wrong.

Anyway, stick or twist is a personal decision - My suggestion is only to be alert to scaremongering.

There is a lot of drivel talked on this BB as is the case with most, I've taken another look at HUR after selling out pre- EPS and find it incredible that you have attracted so many nasties over a simple RNS that IMO was disappointing but still positive - they found oil and it was not determined to be uncommercial at all. They had to abandon or have a plan to utilise the well as with the other with the high flow rate, they ran out of time to test to a 100% conclusion as it cost a fortune to stay on site and has significant risk if the weather deteriorates.

From memory didn't they have significant problems with drilling mud on a previous well - maybe the analysis will advise if the well was truly cleaned up . More importantly, in fact the crux of the matter I suspect and as highlighted by "feelinlucky" these where exploratory wells - production wells are to be designed and drilled for tie back 2020? Presumably they will be horizonal through the broken rock with a significant flow rate increase. Obviously if the last well had had a significant flowrate they would have looked to tie it in - but even so it was not a failure and advises future activity along with all the other data gathered.

PI's have over reacted to the RNS as is often the case, it doesn't indicate any problem with Lancaster, all the stuff on the BBs is pure speculation, as someone who has just returned to take another look, IMO the project has progressed so well and a lot of the risks mitigated to a great extent - I never though they would achieve the EPS on time/budget - a truly epic achievement for AIM.

They're producing oil significant and I understand the BoD's current position is that there is no sign of the water being anything other than as per expectations and water at the base of the strata is not rising at a rate to cause concern.

Clearly it could all go wrong but there is no evidence of it, I've read a few hundred posts now and have seen nothing that shows there is a problem - only someone that says there is talk in Aberdeen - I'd believe the second coming of Christ had occurred before believing something unsubstantiated like that. If anyone has anything FACTUAL please post I'm truly interested in understanding if there is a problem rather than an efforts to de-ramp or ramp.

I confess I'm no expert, but can usually spot others that are clearly bluffing, and welcome posts some that genuinely have a good grasp - there's some good stuff posted.

Finally, when in this previously I recall Dr. Trice commenting on a ratio, I think it was PI (production index), that it was on a par with the world best, a prolific flagship oilfield in Saudi. It was ignored largely at the time and still but I presumed it was the ease at which the oil flowed. Perhaps someone from the industry could explain. Don't lose site of how far this company has come in a short timescale and if they have to tone down flow rates to allow the oil/water contact to rise gracefully, so be it

M&P state they have no intention of making a takeover offer for Amerisur. So why are they still involved??

My only theory (apart from seeking a small return on investment which looks ridiculous as they have a balanced position short and long) is that they may be looking to obtain a blocking share and possibly take control of the company without pursuing a takeover.

They could grapple control from under the nose of Geo Park if they are tapping up II's to sell their shares at a higher price than the Geo offer. Acquiring a blocking share is perfectly feasible as long as it doesn't fall foul of the takeover panel, we wouldn't get any warning of the action until they accumulated sufficient shares.

Most likely barking up the wrong tree but M&Ps continued involvement makes little sense.

Also ONGC have issues a tender for the provision of pipes for 2 wells, these must be in addition to the existing 2 or surely we where being lied to big style on the drilling plan by our BoD/ONGC or both. I suspect as soon as we approve the deal the drill bit will start spinning and IMO on an expanded programme, and Geo may be bragging about new oil resources and an exciting programme before we are even paid up - we have been duped IMO, anger has subsided for many now but it does not change the underlying disgraceful situation.

Anyone that invests in Ironveld or any other venture controlled be the 3 amigos has only themselves to blame for losses.