Member Info for jointhedots

The number of trades tells us all we need to know about what is going on, near 3000 already stinks of shorting, sellers get rid of their shares in reasonable chunks to conclude the business. The concept that hundreds of shareholders have sold today in ridiculous.

The BoiD have just given our enemies more ammunition to wound us with, it's about time they tightened up on their approach and give their supporters more accurate information and don't promise things and then cancel - they never needed to suggest the well would be tied back as all three where simply a exploration wells. Thot themselves in the foot and us well and truly in the pocket - they are a little naïve.

Hopefully that is all the news that can be construed as negative, if so the SP will recover strongly in the coming months IMO.

To lose 20% of the company's market cap over an update on an insignificant ( potential for eventual full development remains unchanged) non-productive licence is totally unwarranted, The additional Lancaster well is now a confirmed target, good news ignored.

Having made the previous statements, I must add that I think our BoD are a bunch of numpties, timing and presentation are vital and they are hopeless at IR. They should never have raised the expectation of a tie back if it was not possible, they should have identified that for each well in the first place,

It is farcical that having found a lot more information about the licences covered by the Spirit JV and proved there is flowing oil in significant quantities at no cost to the company, they would most likely have been much better off actually doing nothing

Doing nothing is the best strategy, with AIM investors treating every bit of news except cashing out as bad new. it is ridiculous by any measure that a profitable company is crushed.

The news is disappointing in some ways, but not a surprise or indication that the development won't be progressed, they their hands are tied by the regulator.

The upside is that now 100% of the oil produced in the coming years will generate revenues for HUR and the new focus returns to revenue generation.

What on Earth are you talking about - that's utter rubbish mate.

But as you raise the issue and others have talked of a takeover, "Highly Unlikely" however the shorters may need to beware of a farm in IMO the most likely news to stop the rot pre March, if we get good terms on Lancaster (and it's a better prospect that what Spirit signed up for), HUR could easily get £500m+ in a carry and some cash, maybe significantly more after March for a less than 50% share.

At a stroke HUR would have a significant income, cash or virtually debt, NIL capital commitment for several years - how would it look then I ask?
Bloody fantastic, I say, a major share in 2 potentially world class oil fields, insignificant debt if any and a team that has stated in the past they have ideas for other overlooked fields. This is a more likely scenario for a company with money.

So guys don't start talking of distressed sales or duff deals, the underlying business and concept is still in tact and in fine fettle.

I think it is generally accepted that this is being shorted and although a PI's sell off and opportunist shorting has helped the real damage is some sort of concerted effort by unknown entities.

We may know the names of some shorters, but we only the position they want us to know and others may not disclose or be MMs manipulating the SP to maximise profits. It may come out, who knows, however one thing is for sue they won't go away unless forced to or they have sucked every last drop of blood from the SP - they don't just move on as some PI's seem to think, they need to be pushed and ultimately our BoD need to do the pushing.

For me more important is why they pounced on HUR and why now - there are many examples on AIM, Premier oil tortured for years for instance. What is common is they perceive a weakness and therefore an opportunity.

Considering HUR weaknesses I believe we have most likely been watched for a considerable time as the SP had performed reasonably well against our peer group and there was potential mileage in launching an attack with the pre X-Mas events and frankly "badly worded RNS" facilitating it .

1 Crystal Amber had troubles and tested a sell down which shook confidence and showed the SP would crumble and PI confidence was wavering.
2 The general market for AIM oil market shares is atrocious with the current flavour of analysis being atrocious, green lobby, economic fears etc, etc.
3 Most importantly the signals given off by the RNS, when you consider the RNS from the perspective of someone looking for a shorting opportunity rather than investor it makes sense:
- poor result (investors wanted superb) from latest well
- Spirit energy potentially exiting partnership as a background
- Uncertainty over water make on well 7, best efforts to clarify failed to remove fears
- Uncertainty over forward drilling programme and tie back of wells (approvals), left investors feeling approval is in the balance - why stress it might come too late, very naïve!
- Inference (and still is) we will have to wait till March for an update on Drilling/Strategy/Performance testing etc, this is a huge mistake IMO, they have bigged it up far too much, it is not the be all and end all, is it? Do all of you, or any of you know it's true/ultimate purpose and if the BoD will save up news for it?

In essence, uncertainty was introduced in bucket loads and we've paid for it, shorters given the freedom of knowing news is unlikely until March with investor confidence trashed and AIM shareholders who are notoriously fickle running for hills. Weak as "water" lol, our own worst enemies.

Hence my comment earlier, the Bod need to mend this and box clever in future, the latest RNS was a good start and there the antics over the last couple of days simply demonstrate the fight is on, some of us will win IMO but when I haven't a clue.

Some entity/entities are have a field day with this - if we are not in the closed period yet a director buy would be excellent.

We'll just have to grin and bear this for the time being.

For avoidance of doubt "THIS IS BEING MANIPULATED", there is no doubt about it in my mind.

What is making it worse is the Chinese worries and lets face it PI's have been running for the hills and lost and sense of reason, headless chickens that will stop at some stage and recovery can start There is a massive buying opportunity here, unfortunately I'm not smart enough to know what the right buying price is - we're all risk averse now.

I suppose the real questions of interest are - by whom and why have they chosen Hur to attack? Even more pertinent is if it is one of our bondholders or II's. The second important point is if it is being done legally, perhaps as our BoD knows no reason for it they should investigate why, as I've said before - Fight!

All the articles and opinion mean nothing, no one is trading (or a small %) on the re-hashed publicly available information weaved into an opinion piece - surely.

This is a joke, the company and particularly commercial director Stobie (who is presumably is responsible for IR) needs to provide some reassurance all is OK or what is going on and I don't mean WRT the water non-issue. Where is the fight or guile to defend our companies future, raising capital at a low SP can become almost impossible without screwing over shareholders when bondholders are involved - where's the forward thinking here as this downward spiral is now becoming self fuelled! This all smacks of incompetence to me and highlights the need for some new heavyweight professions on the BoD.

Staffie - you are very transparent - SP on ICU really? no it's under attack. You say the "share price is, and is heading to the teens and lower. You absolutely don't know that if that is true or untrue, it's perhaps your objective, you simply want to bash the SP down whilst appearing to be distressed, creating uncertainty, even inferring the CEO and company are corrupt. If you really are a shareholder you need to review your investment strategy ASAP.

If you're going to rubbish the company at least do it without trying to disguise your agenda, live up to your name and be a bulldog.

Nonsense pilled on more nonsense is all we seem to get from many posters, sad as when I read the posts a few months ago I thought it was generally a good forum. Someone now suggesting Eddisons update is an update from the company - what absolute drivel, the company updates via RNS, there is nothing new from the company in the Eddison opinion.

The desire to find dirt on the company is so strong for some that facts have just gone out of the window, but eventually the facts will supersede the nonsense and those dishing it out will change their positions - nothing much more disgraceful IMO than a poster that completely changes their stance the moment they buy or sell - if you take note you will spot them sometimes flipping several times in a few sessions.

The old advice of don't trust anyone on the BBs " do your own research" is very apt with this at the moment.

Judging by the amount of Automated sales for small quantities it is quite clear some entities (possibly including our Bondholders, MMs, always the prime suspect) are exploiting the uncertainty to great effect with PI's slowly surrendering.

I'm disappointed that our BoD are pretending they are not involved, IMO we may see an improvement at the end of the session as profits are taken but back to normal next week.

I know many you think the BoD should do nothing, but IMO you are so wrong, they need to address all issues including this even if it is not via an RNS and the best responses I've seem has been from companies that came out unequivocally and told their enemies implicitly/explicitly if you attack our company you'll get burned, PMO have just out manoeuvred (probably!) their big shorter (bondholder) by coming out all guns blazing with an expansion plan.

One last point, many of you think those with large positions disclose fairly - if so you are totally wrong, there is nothing compelling them to do so except decency and many simply aren't decent. None of the rules wrt to this can compel foreign entities to disclose, furthermore MMs can each hold up to 10% of a company without disclosure and some have been prosected in the part for trading inappropriately. I recall listening to an interview with D Lennigas who I recall alleged the main culprits for naked shorting on AIM are the MM - remember they have access to the whole picture or most of it. "Know your enemy"

Unfortunately your post was not positive, hence the negative response.

The last thing we need here is more uncertainty and negative posters being presented with more ammunition to fire at us.

I took your post at face value and simply assumed it could be that the provision could be to cope with an increase in in production and was for a processing capability, someone shipping it away doesn't make sense. If accurate, things of that nature can be the BoD sounding out possibilities and are time related - for instance contracting for services in 3 years time.

But there is a lot of nervousness and jangled nerves, so don't expect any thanks for anything you post.

Yet another unfounded story to chew over, more fear and uncertainty. True or mot doesn't really matter damage is compounded
Water, water and more speculation about water what a pain in the arse, but as I said yesterday the BoD should provide an update or better still buy a few shares in open market. In doing so they would signal that there is nothing of a price sensitive nature that they are holding back.

Whatever the reason for the SP weakness (pick your favourite culprit), with the low SP confidence is rattled and the negativity feeds more negativity, it's a vicious cycle, the BoD are the only party that can break the cycle which is happily supported by countless entities that thrive on the distress. Proactive BoD's are creative and brave enough to do so without simply addressing the SP, just lay the facts bare. I believe the BoD know the reason for the SP falling so dramatically, they may even be the reason - they should to say something as I said earlier in the week, its not about operations or even the water now.

There is no reason the current trend will stop whatever wishful thinking we apply - if there is no reason for it then the BoD should say so, it's not hard

wrt Spirit energy selling up, that should eventually result in good news for HUR, a new partner will not enter the deal unless they are willing to pay to develop the asset.

The negative that some doomsayers suggested was that Spirit would simply withdraw from the project leaving HUR in the ****e. Again I would suggest this will be no bad thing for HUR as Spirit will not be able to simply walk away and will have to pay compensation and that could be a very significant sum (I cite MATD and Shell an prime example).

Further more if HUR get the asset returned we will have the successful well to tie back with the potential to boost production/revenue massively. There was further speculation on the well not being tied back - it is my understanding that it MUST be, the regulator demands abandonment if there is not a viable plan to utilise, that's why the sub 2000bpd well needed abandonment even if it was possible to test further or increase production. So my point is that a tie back will have to be conducted before the expiry of the permissions (this year!)

On the theme of RNS statements - the exact wording really matters. So many companies leave open the possibility of mis-interpretation often intentional , though they are as a rule closely vetted it seems many execs on AIM either don't understand or don't care about the impact .

I spoke to a director responsible for the IR for a FTSE 100 company about this subject a few years ago when they were under attack from short sellers, she stressed how important the issue was and that they reviewed RNS's thoroughly. In that vein, maybe Dr Trice and particularly FD Stobie who is responsible for commercial are a little naïve and don't realise how important absolute clarity and understanding investor concerns context is.

Dr Trice's position was discussed yesterday, IMO he should retained as a very senior Technical director whatever as the company grows, he's a good guy, however I have concerns about Mr Stobie who was allegedly responsible for the complete mess of a capital raise a few years ago that caused severe losses for many loyal shareholders - was it because of naivety, incompetence or my personal view - he didn't care about that impact. More importantly has he learned his lesson. IMO the BoD is in desperate need of strengthening with senior industry professionals who will challenge existing directors if necessary.

Hur needs to enter the FTSE and our directors do not appear to be prioritising this or keeping retail shareholders appraised. With our current structure we will always be sitting ducks on the lawless wild west frontier of AIM.

Lets not get silly, the company is not about to go bust and no one is taking a huge risk unless they are in a time dependent position i.e. leveraged, in that case you are at the whim of the market irrespective of investing in a world beating company or dog.

HUR has a tremendous business concept that will play out and potentially drive the SP to heights we dare not suggest - all to play for.

Ghenghis - What I'm alluding to without spelling it out and giving our enemies further ammunition is that the company needs to clarify its financing and strategy are aligned and no capital raise is planned. Obviously there is no dire need to raise capital but IMO it would be massively positive to sooth jangled nerves and tell us the plan as it would also dispel the water issue and Spirit speculation. No need for money = no problem

The company needs to clarify (confirm) it's strategy and plan wrt where the company is headed for the next 12 months and how that feeds into the longer term value development.

The so-called potential water problem is just the obvious stick to beat us with, but above and beyond that it all centres on uncertainty which leads to a reluctance to hold the shares.

Fear leads to more fear and eventually capitulation, which is what the companies enemies want, make no mistake our enemies can include the companies own bondholders, institutional shareholders and our brokers at times as well as the usual suspects. An appropriate update will help us identify our active enemies.