Member Info for jointhedots

I own various shares and they are all taking a hammering, but this is the one share that is running in the wrong direction based on prospects - it will correct I'm sure - there are few sellers and those only selling trivial quantities.

As I said previously, the falling Rouble (boosts profits), potential depreciation of other currencies and Zero interest on investment should make this a massive safe bet as they are not indebted or reliant on economic activity.

This must be one of the few profitable unstretched gold sector miners on the market (POG is drowning in debt) with no big forward commitments.

Everything is cheap, but I wouldn't touch Bitcoin with a barge pole in this risk averse environment - it may be a great investment for all I know and I wish you luck, but I'm fighting elsewhere.

TSG weakness shouldn't surprise anyone, what is shocking is the negative sentiment for gold, it's all bet related rather than actual physical gold sales so what do traders now regard as a safe haven, not Bitcion, currencies or shares - hide your money under the mattress and stand guard perhaps.

There are heavy bets against, it has crossed my mind that the last thing the key players in the international meltdown want is for gold to gain traction, as it could become a stampede - just a thought.

Just took a look at the notified trades - it's clear there is no noteworthy selling, it's imply being marked down by MM's because they can, practically no net buying or selling resulted in a 1/3 of market cap disappearing Crazy, as with the whole market currently

No real reason for the sharp SP fall as there is very little trading in TSG, simply MM's marking down everything sharply so reduce their risk profile.

Gold down in the last week, but a battle royal going on for direction, IMO it is poised to rise strongly as there are no other safe haven's, even currencies are going to shrink in value as QE accelerates - gold goes up in that scenario as a hedge.

Some private investor taking money out at the moment, probably to cover stress elsewhere, 75% owned by solid institutional shareholders provides an anchor.

Rouble down to around 73 to $, should have reduced operational costs.

Patience is required to let this gain some traction when the gold price finally moves.

"The US has cut interest rates to almost zero and launched a $700bn stimulus programme in a bid to protect the economy from the impact of coronavirus.
It is part of a co-ordinated action announced on Sunday in the UK, Japan, eurozone, Canada, and Switzerland."

I don't know what the UK action is, that already taken maybe?

Monday may not be as bad as feared!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51901998

JB "The big issue for us HUR holders now is simply this, where are we at $20 a Barrel?, my understanding is that the BEP is about $35. " and "17. 660 cases, and 1,266 deaths, why are Italy's stats so much higher than the UK, this really bugs me?"

Don't be fooled by low ball figures produced to make article relevant - a few years ago BP said they would be able to produce oil at a price I can't quite remember exact the price, but is was world beating (near $10/barrel) and made me sit up because of the potential for HUR. Occidental are probably the cheapest major in the Shale patch and the biggest and they are in trouble at current price, just slashed dividend and spending. If companies chose their best patch of oil and ignore overhead costs you can paint any picture you like. Take everything you hear/read with a big pinch of salt, many companies in many sectors will not dare tell the truth or their creditors would crucify them financially .

Shell are a great company, at one time the second largest in the world, but at current prices they are also stressed, the thing they have that sets them apart is a trading arm which allows them to profit from this turmoil, apparently traders are making great profits.

Some good points made on why Italy is hit so hard, there are probably many. I would add to that, that they mix in a different, more close way to UK. Many, particularly in cities live in flats with buildings closely grouped, That's my experience having visited many cities and towns, and we have family living in flats in one of Italy's major cities. Families are close units who for instance also go out in the evening in many places strolling, mixing and posing. called "La Passeggiata", I would imagine it's ideal for spreading infection, especially to old folks, in the UK old folks tend to stay at home cos it's too bloody cold. Hence, perhaps another reason for the high death toll.

Point is, it could be a whole raft of reasons, that do not carry across to the UK.

Sort of lucky, but more luck than judgement, a good BoD would have made us a lot more.

Few would listen on that BB, and pocket class experts jumped in every time sensible posters tried to warn what a bunch of A-holes the BoD where.

I called our Stobie out here and was criticised, history repeats. That aside I like this company the took action and moved him on and have more faith in the BoD, they'll be given a chance, by me now, the current mess is not of their making and they have met every operational target - one hell of an achievement for an AIM company

Ghengis - MBS is an impulsive idiot, no strategy except react to events.

The key to getting rid of Shale oil is a steady low price at which efficient operators win out, fluctuations are a massive boost to shale as they can vary production and hedge to face the dips. The only way to get rid of them is for financiers to withdraw funding - if one goes bankrupt the others simple pick up the asset cheap with no debt and round we go again and all the time around the world more efficient operator go bust.

Whilst we're talking idiots, a few words about the world supreme idiot The Donald (let call him the Duck for simplicity), has been the main instigator of this IMO.

I'll explain, he has given support to US produced and encouraged finance to flood in, bragged continuously about his achievement in pushing down foreign interest and creating a US boom - he believes the good ship US can rise alone whilst all other boats sink. So after years of selfishness, he puts sanctions on Russian oil interests etc, but most recently he went to the UN and bragged about the boom and then the act which I suspect precipitated this was to go to India and brag that the US could soon be satisfying Inia's oil needs - the last straw perhaps for Russia and SA.

Now a selfish ban of EU flights, it's not joined up thinking to give the world confidence, every man for himself is a recipe for disaster - I do not believe any other president would have been so stupid- all boats float in the same economic pond together and rise/sink together.

I intended to comment on shorting this morning, and I'm pleased to see some governments are backing their companies - the UK regulatory control is a disgrace and has contributed to the ruin of AIM and many companies as their access to cash is cut off

I believe short selling should be banned across the board whilst this threat is live but equally important the authority should implement the rules - shorters just ignore them and as I pointed out previously MMs are one of the main participants in this. Penalties should be punitive and long jail sentences should be enforced for those that try to destroy British companies.

But apparently the Chancellor was a hedge fund manager, whose company was convicted of foul play (overturned on appeal) and the head of the FCA has a similar background with strong objections to him becoming governor of the Bank of England partly because he has failed to tackle wrong-doing . What hope have we of a level playing field!!!!!

Anyway the primary reason for this post is to highlight the threat of contagion of the current turmoil into the financial market and the need for action "NOW" to protect the financial sector. Apparently the New York FED reserve injected $1.5trillion into the financial system yesterday - that was because of unprecedented turmoil. That's huge, the response to the financial crisis was 0.5 trillion initially.

Also Barclay's were hit hard yesterday, for no apparent reason, if the government don't move to protect the companies/jobs and by default the country quickly they could be too late. THe money the chancellor pledged in the budget to help businesses in peanuts on the scale of the damage being done.

Prime examples are PMO (someone trying to destroy the company openly (and the FCA appear to have done nothing - someone should be prosecuted) and Tullow They both have the perceived risk of unserviceable debt and it the SP is low enough the can't raise capital and the Bondholders get the company - everyone should know the well trodden route. Those shorting should be investigated and prosecuted if laws have been broken.

Shorting is a serious threat to the survival of many companies now, and HUR are in a better position than most now.

A lot of nonsense talked on the BB today, trying to frighten distressed shareholders more - so cruel, some people have no decency.

First a bit of history, it is well documented evidence of breakdowns, suicides, broken lives as a result of financial catastrophes; there will surely be broken investors who have lost life saving, pension pots in this turmoil across many companies , money they dare not confess to their spouse. Remember that when you are gloating at peoples distress, not just on this BB- it is contemptable, unnecessary behaviour.

The BS of "the game is up", "switch off the lights" etc is going on across many forum's of distressed companies, it is well trodden ground and complete BS.

The SP has "NO BEARING" on the company's ability to execute their business plans or produce and sell oil. No bearing on anything except shareholder contentment and ability to raise money, which in turn is only a problem if a company actually needs to raise capital, that's why Tullow and PMO are being savaged. Their ability to raise money is severely impacted if their market cap is so low it does not justify shareholders putting their hand in their pocket to support the company.

I commented, I believed this "perceived" issue could be the cause of Hurricanes problems weeks ago and was dismissed. This is the reason massive bear positions are taken against companies, often by their own bondholders. With Hurricane I believe they are making a big mistake as the debt is easily manageable unless there is an operational problem. Anyone calling time on HUR is badly mistaken, they can withstand the low oil price, they could withstand a super low oil price for longer than most of the rest of the industry could survive. However lets be sensible, oil prices cannot be sustained at current levels for the amount of time to bankrupt Hurricane. Nothing has changed, we don't even know is they have had to sell any oil at current prices (so probably no losses against plan to date?), whatever, it will be peanuts in the long term as long as they survive.

We've been here before (some of us) with everyone saying "all is lost" - remember 911, Ryanair had flights advertised at 1p when everyone was afraid to fly, credit crunch with everything national Building companies to breweries trashed and supposedly going bankrupt - but the world is resilient and fear will subside as it did then. Coronavirus is nasty and scary, but the truth is the issues is it is killing westerners in low numbers doesn't matter, most don't bat an eyelid at the millions that die every year via curable diseases in Africa and other poor nations.

Keep perspective guys, it may get worse but if you hold your nerve it is likely to get much better, this will be de-risked after the Results and CMD, the bears will only have a broken stick to beat us with even before the market improves.

Good news for gold as this plays out QE pushes the value of currencies down and ridiculously low interest rates make the opportunity cost of owning gold meaningless.

Gold treading water at the moment, but I don't think that will last.

This really is a sleepy backwater, so this will be slow to come to the boil and maybe lag other Gold companies, the huge holding of major shareholders helps with stability but also mutes any reaction to news, especially non-company specific news.

In addition to the Rate cut, there are a number of other measures.

These include making money available to banks, huge amounts £100bn, and £180bn suggested to specifically help business. Maybe HUR can tap some of that money as they are operating in the UK and are impacted!

A bank loan, could provide that they will be able to pay bck the Bond in 2and a half years, just having a low rate facility or any new facility would take the wind out of the sales of the companies enemies/shorters.

Also there is a suggestion of quantitive easing, printing money will cause the value of the £ to fall, another boost for HUR, who operate in UK so spend a proportion of costs in £ and sell in US$. This can make a difference and helped save PMO when they where previously hit - may help them now I suppose.

Our Bond is £230m redeemable on 24 July 2022 so plenty of time to sort out repayment or arrange a new facility, but to push it out a few years even if not strictly necessary would be very useful in restoring confidence. If there is going to be lots of cash sloshing about at low rates I think they should go for it, anything they can get lol.

pete - well done at long last someone has reclaimed the agenda, I wondered who the hell TSD was and had to go back to see. Then another piece of bait is thrown in and we're back where we started

The attention you give the guy is pathetic guys, trying to be rational in the face of simple malicious trolling - we're never going to learn are we!

Someone posted about the oil and gas authority relaxing their attitude to producers in light of the new reality - I think that is a good point. those 2 compliance well to identify the extent of the field should be deferred to provide operational choices.
I do think that once testing of the Spirit well starts, if it's good there is potential to request a deferral of abandonment, it depends how rigid the authority proves.

Genghis - what's a "bd"

I don't want to go chasing around on twitter when I don't even know why.

The article is misleading as are many on oilprice,com All commentators are in drama mode at the moment.

Russia always come it big with the bravado, all countries can manage for years with extreme distress if they have no choice, that doesn't mean it won't be exceptionally painful and unbearable where they have a choice.

Last time they came under pressure and the Rouble dropped to more than 50 to the $ as I recall, they wheeled out the sovereign wealth fund as a defence, then it had more clout and it ignores the point that it is what stands between Russia and the poor house in a crisis and guarantees pensions.

The rouble will crash and revenues crumble and their "March 1 liquid assets worth US$150.1 billion" could be worth a lot less now!- and they are saying they won't try to stave that off at all costs!

So, IMO it is all BS, posturing, they and the Saudi's will be incredibly worried only surpassed by everyone else at the moment, especially the shale drillers.

Lets wait and see what the next few weeks bring, still the most important thing is to sort out corona virus and restore the demand side - the message has now been sent loud and clear to the idiot financiers that have propped up the unprofitable shale boom

The cash pile, low cost base and maneagably low debt, are massive assets for HUR, suddenly that cash can actually purchase massive assets (though no one is thinking that way just yet they will later) . Though this is a disaster for the industry, much of the marginal production will disappear from the market for ever if it lasts long. It's painful at the moment, very painful, but the outcome could be very beneficial, particularly if the shale oil financiers finally come to their senses

The crash in the oil price is very bullish for Gold producers and TSG in particular for the obvious and some not os obvious reason.

First, don't be surprised at a lack-lustre or even negative response today as many investors will liquidate holdings in companies that have decent share prices to cover positions and buy opportunistically.

Beyond that the safe haven principle will win out, governments will cut interest rates if their economies need it, and they will, that boosts the case for gold. India benefits and they are the biggest buyer. But specific to Russia is that their government will want foreign currency to replace lost dollars and their support for the sector via Russian banks should be very strong, the Rouble is likely to fall as the countries outlook darkens, that will reduce costs (was a major factor for POG when they where struggling). The Rouble is the currency most of the costs are in and Gold is sold in Dollars.

The mining sector will be hit so will services become cheaper?

All very bullish IMO, even without a spike in the gold price, but we'll see

According to the latest presentation the OPEX projection for 2020 is $20/barrel and the upside potential pushes it down to $18/barrel - that will allow HUr to weather the storm the market is facing whereas others may well collapse IF and it's a big if the turmoil continues for more than a few months.

My experience in industry is that companies only discover how efficient they can be when forced into action, there will be saving to be had against programmes for many companies and we may be approaching a time when contracting oil field services could become much cheaper!

Agree