Member Info for johnpwh

It would be good if existing shareholders were invited to participate in a rights issue, but my recent experience is that this is unlikely. You can see why I guess, much easier and cheaper to get a few large investors via a placing rather than hundreds of small holdings

if this was an AIM share there would be about 400 posts a day after this sudden rise. We about 4 a week!

My understanding from reasonably recent interviews with SD was that he had interest from banks to lend. He said that it was a bit like a mortgage, where the bank expected GGP to put up some equity. I may have got it wrong but my interpretation of that was he would expect the company to raise some capital through equity and then banks would lend the balance as debt. So I am expecting a rights issue/ placing and bank debt. But what do I know!

correction 70%, sorry

Bamps, Matty
Plus they are accelerating the decline. Why would they bother to do that if they have decided to mothball, especially as I assume there would be care and maintenance costs once finished? I certainly think not taking this option has put a massive question mark which needs to be understood - as I always thought this has hurt the SP, if not by much - especially as they could have made an easy $25m dollars (or maybe a bit more if they had responded to GGP with a higher counter offer). I hope SD is on top of this, and the NCM strategy is not to drive GGP into debt and get it on the cheap. Contra to that is that even in the most appalling scenario NCM would not be guaranteed to pick up the pieces in a fire sale so NCM would achieve nothing.
One possibility that I may well have been mentioned (there were far more posts than I could get through yesterday) is that NCM were mindful that screwing a relative minnow like GGP over would possibly be counterproductive with other potential JV ventures. This way they look like good fair guys who are good to do business with, after all they still have 75%.

I am not a holder here so am dispassionate. I would suggest that you read giantsquids post carefully and at least consider the content rather than instantly dismiss it. I got caught up in Carillion, another huge company that no one expected to fail. I have seen (thankfully again not at first hand) the pain and anguish at POG recently and wouldn't wish it on anyone, Good luck all,

Careful Willowman, you are definitely on the slippery slope to a severe case of johnpwhitis.
Diminished confidence sums it up. I think it is only due to the excellent geology and original conservative management that AAU remains a reasonably attractive investment (yep, you read that right). With more rash debt based fundraising we may never have got this far. Sadly what was painstakingly built up was, in my opinion, significantly squandered in an ill considered amendment to a successful JV. But that doesn't make AAU unattractive, just makes it less of a stand out opportunity, its no longer going to make me rich beyond my wildest dreams!! With continued extension to the Red Rabbit life of mine, continued expansion of the Tavsan resource and zero debt we should have a decade of healthy returns. I'm not so sure I believe in Salinas as much as I did as indications are that costs there will be much higher than Western Turkey and if it is developed it will be many years delayed. Cyprus looks good but I know DJ isn't happy with the characters behind Venus. I would feel happier if AAU became more aggressive there and increased their share to a controlling one, although I suppose as Venus is a Private Company you cant easily force agreement from the other shareholders. Where is the promise of AAU growing a pair of unfeasibly big balls that we were promised (to paraphrase Seners words for gratuitous dramatic effect)?
PoG, PoS and PoC could of course put a whole new complexation on the SP (good or bad), but they are not in the control of the company.
Night all

No badshah13 I disagree. I do not need a piece of paper and there is no 85m profit.
If GGP had been allowed to pay 85m for 5% to negate the sale of 5% for 60m then they would have stayed at 70% and be 25m poorer due the difference in cash (60m received, 85m spent)
Compare this to the refusal of the offer and the option not being taken up (which what has happened). Again they have 70% and no cash movements have occurred. So instead of a cost of 25m (net) there is 0. So GGP is 25m better off by the option lapsing rather than having their offer to NC accepted

I agree with what you say but it has to be remembered that SD was prepared for that shortfall in finance to be increased by a further 25m when they tried to prevent the loss of the 5%. That shows some confidence that it can be achieved.
It would help if PoG was to start a good run, which would lead to increasing confidence of potential lenders.
A worry I have is that NC is trying to back GGP into a corner for a cheap bid, but time will tell.

I share your enthusiasm but respectfully suggest it is 25 million not 85. To end up not selling the 5% has 'cost' the loss of 60m we were expecting to receive, rather than spending 85m to get the same result. So the gain is 25m

ortherncopper
Well said, everyone loves an optimist!
The drop is totally understandable, with doubts about why an apparent bargain wasn't snapped up by NC and how the lost 60 million will be found from elsewhere. That will weigh heavy today.
But I saw many positives there, the share being 30%, the increased decline progress, the agreement by NC on the resource upgrade. I feel optimistic once this bit of bumpy ground is passed.

A smidgeon over 3p to buy. I suppose at least we are xdiv. When will this misery end?!

Hi VanVan
Back from pub and a curry so maybe not the best time to post!
Far too piddled to coherently reply but what did we receive for Salinbas? I though it was $5m from Ozaltin plus $8 into the new JV to progress development. Are we certain that AAU received $5.75 from Proccea as well? That genuinely passed me by

What do you think the SP.woukd be now without the new JV?. With 2 years of debt free production at Salinbas and several more to come at 50% share, Tavsan round the corner for far beyond the original 3 year estimate, and with salinbas still 100% owned. Maybe Venus would still have been available with the profits from a 50% share in Red Rabbit. Of course we don't know but it would be far greater than 3.1p in my opinion

Levi
MDV thinks he has a right to stay as Chairman due to his holding, and Sener is a great geologist and increasing a poorly performing CEO. The board needs an overhaul and an emphasis made on openness and honesty. I'd like the votes for and against at the AGM made public

To be honest my old mate Levi I am comfortable if it is underpromoted as that implies the quality is there and, as they say, the cream will eventually rise to to top. What worries me more is that there may be many Sener fans on this and 'the other' board who are convinced that AAU is a better company than it maybe really is. I am troubled by why 76.5% of the 'super asset' Salinbas/ Ardala was disposed of so cheaply. Assuming it is feasible to mine there (we have no idea of the costs per ounce involved yet) when will we see the first pour. 2025? 2030? 2040?

Very weak |SP ending, and it isn't xd yet which in theory should take it down by another 0.175p,
And there is another example of the lack of transparency. If I want to discover when BP and GSK go xd it is readily available on their company websites. Ariana is about to xd for the last part of the special dividend. You try and find it on the AAU website or elsewhere. It has been much debated on the Advfn website in the last day or so!

4kandles
I know nothing about this

Sotolo
I find that with many companies. Sometimes I see LSE more popular with posters than ADVFN for one company but the opposite is true for another. I have a couple of shares where every few months I have a conversation with myself just for amusement. At least no one disagrees with me then

Mike
With iWeb. Couldn't get a quite for well over an hour, and no trades were reported here. Then all of a sudden I could, bought 5215, and several have been reported since but all at an identical price. Seems odd but what do I know!