Member Info for johnpwh

Steady Darcey. Have a sit down and one of your pills......

Holding my breath here chaps/ chapesses......

Yes, I'm watching and think its the way forward. People will still want to go out and with restaurants and pubs closing all around a player like JDW with the scale to undercut, but with bigger margins than they seem to have been persisting with, is the way forward. I welcome the closures, JDW are so well represented in most areas that they can charry pick and close the weaker performers, reallocating staff to other nearby branches to alleviate the staff shortage. Aldi and Lidl will pick up footfall in hard times. JDW will hopefully perform in the same way in hospitality.

Hard to believe that once again we are < 3p to buy. It keeps on happening every time you think the corner has been turned. So cross I could crush a grape.

Agree LoB. Seems an odd time to bail out when just over a week back you could sell at over 3.5p (ahem, I did. Have repurchased though today).

Paul
You sound pretty much my investing doppelganger, or maybe this is a natural path over the decades. From wide eyed innocence to gnarly cynicism along the same route, with some expensive lessons along the way. Bit like girlfriends and wives....
BP tick. 2 or 3 years ago fossil fuels were sooooo last year, and the younger me would have believed it. But you cant replace centuries of dependence on fossil fuels overnight by shiny new tech. It will be a long time before we get an electric container ship, can you imagine the battery pack and recharging time? So, even if the yogurt knitters have that idea, we are going to be dependent of oil until long after I push up the daisies. Some still say peak oil consumption hasn't even been reached yet. And then there is the effect on oil price of Ukraine and the likely ostracisation of Russia for a few decades. BP has been good, and I expect it to keep giving - the biggest threat imo is not the green revolution but a Labour government who is likely to squeeze BPs pips till they well and truly squeak.
I don't set out to be a trader but there is a European goldminer who has proved very beneficial in that respect. It hasn't multibagged but tends to have frequent significant fluctuations, a bit like a sine wave. Sell at the top, buy at the bottom, rinse and repeat. 200 deals and counting!
To get back on topic, I give up on lithium miners and their prospects. I am just sitting on this one without being likely to add or (at the moment at least) sell. Like you I think that Europe looks a good case with the size of the car industry, lack of producers at present and globalisation concerns. However whether it is the current equity holders in ZNWD , EMH and SAV who benefit is another matter - or those that pick up the assets from their administrators.....................

I have thanks Den. This seemed a good opportunity but as time goes on it seems that the IPO was a chance seized by the founders to capitalise before the rot set in. I suspect they saw it coming.
Good luck to you though, my instinct after 40 years of investing is to walk away, albeit sadly with a loss.

Thanks Paul, appreciate your opinion as I think you are far better researched in EMH than myself.
As I age my investment philosophy changes also. In my impetuous youth I saw too many, too good to miss, 'jam tomorrow' companies come and go (many terminally to my detriment). Too many early stage oil, pharma and tech shares. If it sounds too good.......
Aside from ZNWD I now generally only go for the more mature companies in, or with a clear path to, production. My involvement with ZNWD probably would not have happened if it hadn't been for the BCN sweetener. I don't think I did anything like enough research, I was looking for alternative Lithium exposure and the free shares didn't satisfy my 'scale' requirement.
Invariably when it comes to financing a promising project the shareholders in a small AIM company get shafted (that will probably be censored!). That is my experience, very hard won. As they say in Peaky Blinders, big ***s small (my asterisks, I knew I couldn't get away with that).
Of course I still sometimes have a very small dabble on some totally out there boom or bust operation (FOX marble for instance) but they 90%+ fail!

Stop using the word mathematics when you mean arithmetic.

Hi Paul
I held SAV for a bit in July last year for what turned out to be just over 2 weeks! Not a big investment, in at 31p, out at 36p. Like you the local opposition there worries me, plus I'm not sure of they even make cars in Portugal these days (I know they used to make Mini Mokes there!) - I think local demand is important and Germany has that in spades.
I don't know that much about EMH, only what I have gleaned from a quick read. What drew me to that is that they effectively access the same ore body? The difference is that EMH are closer to production but they are in a jurisdiction that some seem to believe is less conducive to mining. Interested to know which you instinctively prefer.

ppps
I was comparing ZNWD to EMH because they 'share', essentially, the same deposit spanning the German/ Czech Republic border.

pps safe rocket!

Interesting Paul
I'm sure that some, probably rightly, think I just go off on one and have a rant while trying to throw in a couple of jokes. That's not really me, I honestly do research and think!
Since yesterday I have been reading, particularly comparing Zinnwald to EMH. A few points I gather from this:
The deposit EMH is mining is far larger, and has a greater concentration of tin which is a valuable by product. Now EMH has, I believe, only a part interest in this deposit. However Zinnwald is unlikely to develop their deposit by themselves as it would be economically difficult to raise the finance (see below).
In a September 2022 interview available on YouTube Plessis says, like you, that the length of time to production is usulaly 10-16 years. Then says they want to be producing by 2026. Even the interviewer scoffed at that one. So imo ZNWD will miss that massive upsurge in demand.
Plessis also said that he expects mine financing is likely to be 60% Debt, 40% equity or equity related (not sure what that means). Even with the SP kick up at the end of Friday (shared by pretty much all Lithium explorers so don't get excited) the MC is £22m. Investment till production will be many times that. At 40% then the dilution is massive, which will be done at a discount and provide the most massive hangover of shares imaginable.
The BoD is 2 Executive directors, both primarily accounting backgrounds. They may have had mining company experience but basically number crunchers. Then some non execs including idiot Secker. EMH has, to my eyes, a much stronger board.
EMH have powerful backers and talk confidentially about production in 18 months. Their MC is only 4 times that of ZNWD. I know where I would rather be.
The supply/ demand and substitute arguments are relevant. There is no doubt that these are reflected in the Lithium price decline over the past months, which is reacting to both potential substitutes due to projected high lithium prices and alternative static storage solutions and lithium sources being developed attracted by potential profits. Many now expect hydrogen cars to be the real future using electrolysis from renewables, which use less batteries. Lithium is abundant, gold it ain't.
At the moment lithium is the only current viable EV technology, mainly because it has a head start. Would the 4 stroke IC engine have become so dominant if the gas turbine or ****el engines have been invented and developed at the same time? That may give lithium legs for some time, but if Zinnwald don't get into production until 2030s the bus may have been missed.
So having considered all I have read I conclude:
I wish I was in EMH not ZNWD
It reinforces my opinion that ZNWD is in danger of wiping out shareholders unless there is takeover, a dominant JV partner allowing free carry or huge investment by the EU concerned about strategic materials in an environment when dependence on the Global supply chain seems far less attractive.
Ps Is ZNWD a

Two very good posts Paul, with some optimism along the lines of those I was hoping someone would post!
I am realistic, and my hope is for ZNWD to become a minority partner (carried to production) in a JV, a takeover or the Company or EU grants/ funding of what is seen as a strategic resource. However none of these options are in the gift of the Board and rely on third parties to show interest.
Else all shareholders here, including you and me, are facing continued dilution by placing followed by placing in a desperate attempt to keep the company solvent while scant (or no) progress is made. At that stage the prospect of current equity holders ever breaking even without determined averaging down is unlikely. And I for one will not commit any further funds here . Why would a potential predator or JV candidate come along on their white charger to avoid this scenario? They may as well wait for the administrators or liquidators, pick over the ZNWD bones and save themselves some money.
Like you I would expect a decade minimum to reach production and feel that by then the Lithium demand may not look the same as it does now. Lithium is not a rare mineral, alternatives are being sought to substitute or reduce lithium usage due to its toxicity and flammability, and the price of lithium carbonate and hydroxide have been falling for the best part of a year.

Out of interest are you happy with the way this company is being run, and its lack of progress towards any value creation for shareholders at a time when they are sitting on one of the most in demand commodities in the world? My question is relevant in a company which has very low cash reserves and has has cash raise after cash raise against a monotonic decreasing share price.

Out of interest does anyone know how much the Zinnwald board pay themselves for their inactivity?

Sadly it wont change and as you say the bid offer is too large to contemplate. Scarily the next fund raise will need to be at a discount to the current SP, think the last one was c.15p? I will take the hit and sell in the next financial year provided I can use the loss to mitigate the rhyming slang chancellors CGY pa reduction to 6k. Thats the plan but relies on one of my other shares doing the business! That bloody BCN deal sweetener really bit me on the bum, I very much doubt I would ever have got involved in this outfit if it wasn't for that!

All true Happy. If I'm correct Brent was about $140 in June 2006! Adjusting by CPI by multiplying by 127.2/80.1 you have the equivalent of $222 per barrel. Makes you think!

You have to be more inventive. Like 'our rhyming slang chancellor'

Love the bit of censorship just applied Jerry!