Member Info for johnpwh

Well, yet more share purchases from BOD. Good sign I think, MDV certainly seems confident.
And 2 corporate events. Think I am more likely to go to the 3rd December one personally. I assume similar format to the one in May.

As long as Trump doesn't get what he wants I frankly don't care.
Would love the Saudis to stand up to him and say 'we are cutting oil supply to maintain prices and if you don't like it we will get our arms from Chinese and Russians as well'.

Joe
Diesel less than 130p/litre?

Just off to ASDA, catch up with you all later

blackstout, I really appreciate your comments.
Most of us are not from an accounting background (my own is actuarial and UK personal tax, cant speak for others) so are looking at cashflows of the business level rather that minutiae of the accepted accounting measures.
Perhaps I need to rephrase. By net income I mean gross profit from commercial production at JV level, pre tax.
I don't think AAU have really defined all elements of cost , ie those currently included in the £330 per oz. I personally assume it to be the cost of production including mining , processing, plant maintenance, running costs, staff & admin costs (both where 100% employed in Kiziltepe production and where partly employed in other AAU business apportioned appropriately).
I would not expect those costs to include loan repayments (capital and interest), AAU (and Procea) costs not directly applicable the current producton operation etc., further exploration costs on JV owned prospects, or AAU costs on their 100% owned assets. The road moving is an odd one as I think it should be included in the current cost figure and amortised (think that's the right term) over the expected remaining mine life (possibly causing a restatement of past costs even if only at a management reporting level),
That is why I have questioned why people ask for there to be a dividend payment, since there is really nothing left to support that! What I was tryng to get a feel for is how profitable is current production when compared to MC. By stripping out every possible current cost from generated surplus you can of course reduce that surplus to just about zero. Looked at that way you could argue that this company would be more attractive if it gave up exploration, the Salinbas licenses and just run off current known assets at Liziltepe, Ivrindi, Kizilcuckur (and possibly Tavsan), turn the lights off and go home!

ts post.

I mean, to add to the shortage because of Iran, Saudi cuts and US shale being unprofitable hasn't the international oil markets heard that the Aoka Mizu has broken down!!!

As stated before, I'm thick. I don't understand these markets.
We have US sanctions on Iran now in force which, despite idiot Trump granting exceptions, has to reduce crude supply.
We have the Saudis now openly concerned about the recent POO decline and have, I believe, announced a cut in production in December (think I read 500,000 barrels a day). The greater the POO drop, the more the output cut likely for next year
US shale will, if reports are to believed, become non profit making at prices < $70 per barrel so will cut back
And still POO declines, currently $66.75 per barrel for Brent. Anyone understand this?.

Thanks. Yep, good point. How on earth did I miss that, I hang my head in shame.
So, using my 'realistic' estimate of the 4th quarter and an 1.30 average exchange rate I have £10.2m 2018 net income vs £14 mc. Still doesn't seem a logical situation.
Plus as has been noted by people, similar results can be reasonably assumed at least until the final repayment of the loan in the first half of 2020..

Predictable or what. He just gets on my ***s.

Its significant enough to mention in an RNS, but then again any unexplained loitering for more than a day or so would have caused concern so maybe not so bad.
I always viewed the Dubai to Rotterdam leg as a good extended test of the integrity of the vessel, so if all that has happened is a dodgy generator then its a good result. Funny it couldn't have waited for Rotterdam, as the parts delivery (if needed) and planning could have been in well in place by the time she gets there in 2 weeks ish sailing. Maybe it was affecting the coffee machine or chip fryer?
Its a glitch, so what, onwards and upwards. Stiff upper lip chaps

Ok, extrapolating for the full year, and not adjusting for the apparently 'below par' result for the first quarter, and of course remembering AAU has only 50% interest of the JV, then an estimate of AAU net income for 2018 based on the first 3 quarters is:
50% x 4/3 x (7588 x (1333 - 330) + 7171 x (1404 - 371) + 4866 x (1433 - 612)) = c.£12,684,000
So the market Cap of £14m is approximately the same as 2018 net income, especially if we allow ourselves to assume that Q4 is likely to be more like Q2 and Q3 than Q1 (assuming that Q4 is the average of Q2 and Q3 the extrapolated figure is, I think, £13,270,000)
Have I missed anything, because this seriously makes no sense?
Unsmiley face

Gosh, how do Panmure Gordon produce such razor sharp incisive analysis?
Ariana Resources is well placed to exceed its production guidance for the year.
NSS (think you can work that out)
Awesome, thank God they are on board

Happy to admit my fears for costs due to POO were unfounded.
Looks a fantastic result. Wonder if the market will give this the usual muted response?

Hi
My understanding is not. The buoy is already tied to the sea bed and the AM picks up on that. Think about it like a yacht in a marina - you see blobs in the water outside the posh part which mark lines already attached to the seabed - you tie the yacht to the buoy then safely open the gin and pringles!

Hi
I don't know you as well as some of the others here do, but would also like to say that I hope tomorrow goes well.
Let us know how you get on, if that's ok with you.
Best wishes
John

Come on chaps, lets not argue.

We should all remember the selfless sacrifice our forebears showed during past wars this morning. I personally will be silent at 11 o'clock, probably with tears in my eyes. I'm sure you all feel the same way.

Love to all of them and thank you from me and my children.
This morning Hurricane really doesn't matter that much to me, but I expect it will later!

But AM seems 300 nm from Gibraltar, so at its modest cruising speed should be there at, or before, its published ETA of Monday morning.
I mention it as I believe as the time to FOIL counts down without hitches the SP will increase.

I very much doubt the FD was the only person in the finance area who know what was going on. This is quite a big fraud relative to the size of the company, he cannot have done this alone and covered up the facts for such a long time without collusion. However those who knew will largely have been subordinates in the company hierarchy and probably didn't dare to speak out. That makes me question the culture there a bit.
Is it realistic to assume none of the other Board Members knew? Seems very doubtful - follow the share sales, particularly anyone who sold the vast majority of their holdings shortly before events unfolded....
As Analysister asks. is this a fundamentally sound business model? It clearly wasn't as profitable in recent past as was thought, and that will be true at least initially going forward.
The result of the unpopular refinancing means that, hopefully, the company is currently on a sound footing. Wonder what investigative work they will need to complete before contemplating re listing?
As noted before one good thing is that the 'shenanigans' should have no effect on footfall in the stores - if anything then, like me, the publicity may even have prompted people to search a branch out and try a coffee and cake! I note from TripAdvisor that generally very positive feedback is given.

He did indeed. In fact I think he crashed it twice, and it was the second time where the impact was so heavy that the car broke clean in half, with the engine and transmission ending up several feet from the rest. Think there are photos if you search via Google. Atkinson insisted that the car be repaired using as many as the original components as possible, so that the carbon fibre tub was rebuilt rather than replaced. The resulting repair estimate was so huge, >£1 million, that Atkinson has to go to court with his Insurance company who wanted the car written off. That was successful, the car repaired, and he was proved right because his well used McLaren F1 was sold relatively recently for something like £6m. Wonderfully O/T

I really hope that you are right. I do, which is why I keep convincing myself to buy more. However my liquidity levels are pretty low now, so think the buying has stopped.

Also hope JK is right with his remaining confidence in his sweepstake bet.

Course following FOIL there will, I think, be a few more months of paint drying while Dr T learns more about the Lancaster reservoir characteristics, production ramps up and drilling takes place both in GLA and with Spirit. Hard to predict what the SP will do in that period? Anyone any thoughts?

Hmmmmmmm!!