Member Info for johnpwh

More talk of dividends on the other board this morning. Still don't really understand the logic. Supporters argue that the payment of dividends would change market perception of the company, increase its desirability and therefore elevate the SP. Would the market really be fooled by the payment of a trivial dividend? The argument against seems strong, that the payment of a dividend would starve the company of the funds needed to advance Tavsan/ explore in NE so would effectively have to be funded from the debt taken out to replace lost funds. And, successful as it is proving, a company the size of AAU pays heavy interest payments for debt. No divis please!

Hi Paul
Not trying to be argumentative, honestly!
I am happy that the costs and skills developing current JV assets, both pits and the processing plant, were fair.
However Kizilcukur and Ivrindi are 100% AAU owned and owe nothing to Proccea to date as far as I am aware. Management targets for these, according to the Oct '18 presentation, are a total of 90,000 oz Au. On a conservative basis of $1250 gold, $700 costs (allowing an arbitrary amount for trucking) and 1.3 $/£ exchange rate, then a quick and dirty calc is £38m net revenue, £19m for each party if part of the JV. So what would be a fair price to buy into that £19m, allowing for the jointly owned nature of the processing plant? £6m? But the 3 x formula falls far short of this.
I will probably raise at a future S/H meeting, the value of Kizilcukur (if not Ivrindi) should be clearer by then.
SP seems to be holding up reasonably well!

Morning all
We are still at least 2 months off FOIL imo, a lot of paint to watch dry before then.
Think I'll hibernate, instead of being an exciting time this is just plain boring!

Hi Paul
Sorry, only been around these boards for a matter of months so wouldn't have seen your post. I worked out some rough figures a few weeks ago which no one challenged. These suggested (from memory) that Proccea will pay something around £0.5m for an asset likely to yield (conservatively, on certain assumptions) iro £7.5m profit for them. Nice work if you can get it! Yes AAU retain half, but at the moment they own the whole. Proccea have the upper hand here because it is not worth building a plant for, even to service Ivrindi as well. So AAU need to be able to use the JV processing plant because with at least 10 tons of ore per ounce of gold (think that's right) you cant truck it far without the costs getting silly. I don't think others are too worried so I'd best just forget it

No problem, I have had a lot of help in the past from VanVan and others.
Stop it now, its starting to sound like a love in!

LordofBurnley
Nice to have you along.
My experience s that this is a friendly place with well informed people. We occasionally go off topic about cars and football!
This we have a rather disproportionate number of Claret supporters!

Twice for emphasis! This site can be funny, I posted the other day and a big chunk out of the middle was omitted!
No, not particularly low but currently showing a decent few quid profit on paper. Yep, nice round numbers but doesn't mean I'm not nervous!

Yep. Didn't see that match, just the highlights of Liverpool v Napoli. I'm sure you wont agree but they can be exciting to watch, and nice to see a manager who appears to be an emotional human being.
Ariana is hard to fault at the moment, one day an exploration target will turn up 'dry' and it will be a shock! I too have been burned before, but unlike you I have no common sense so have rather overindulged. Must admit (shock, horror) that I sold a few the other day, but only about 4% of my holding. May sound daft but, despite not being OCD in any other way I hated not having a 'round' number of shares. Totally illogical I know

And Burnley won on Saturday. You must be made up!

Good to see the information flow, though nothing in particular new. Maybe the company listened to a few of us who wanted this? It keeps the company 'out there', given that the mainstream press is yet to pick it up (what does AAUs PR firm do again?)
The RNS is about Kizilcukur, a prospect outside the JV. I think its fair to assume that drilling at Kizilcukur will progress from the 30,000 JORC eq. oz towards management target of 50,000 eq.oz.
I've gone on about this before (I apologise) but I still don't understand the arrangement to sell this wholly owned resource into the JV. We have established that 'effective' amount AAU would receive is only 1.5 x exploration cost, as the JV is to buy it rather than Proccea. I had assumed that this was some sort of option exercisable by Proccea. Yet there is a statement in todays RNS 'Ariana has the option to sell the project to Zenit Madencilik San. ve Tic. A.S. (the operating company for the Kiziltepe Mine) at three times the exploration cost.'. If the sale is at Arianas option then why would they would they accept a pittance for it (you may have seen my figures in an earlier post which I hope were correct). Is it that Proccea have the whip hand because the only economically feasible way to produce from Kizilcuker is to gain access to the Kiziltepe production facility?
Confused of Telford

Thanks for the help everyone, appreciated

I don't profess to know anything about this, and certainly <<1% than Dr T clearly does but my logic is as follows:
The FB is made pretty much of good old Scottish granite I believe, bit like posh worktops and curling stones.
That's not a rock that gives off powdery deposits if you rub it like limestone or sandstone. It just kind of stays there. Add that to the fact that the oil found thus far is light rather than some semi solid stuff akin to tar then to me it shouldn't clog up - because apart from 'mud' used in the drilling process (which I don't understand and don't want to) there is nothing really to clog up.
But what do I know

Just tried to buy and couldn't get a quote except for 1000 shares.
Never mind, will try again later - give me time to do my own research!

Yes. Do you mind? We would be very grateful, honest

you mention the quarries closing for winter, which is understandable. Bu I would assume that the is a stockpile at the processing plant so that there should not be any seasonal affect?

Had an eye on this for some time, as some here know (I am an ex shareholder).
From what I can see it is shaping up nicely.
I throw my hands up and admit I am being lazy, but a question to those here thant kow the compant backwards - are you expecting any further equity dilution in the near future? I read in the interims of debts of c£0.65m - is this the extent of it?

sub 60 again. Opecs decision may have stabilised the drop but its not launching it back to $70 as I read was predicted by an 'expert'

'Kin 'ell, Just looked at the Gails website at the prices of their loaves. Wonder if they have heard that if your prices are too high you don't sell enough to cover your fixed costs? £12 for a loaf? I get mine from Morrisons with a yellow sticker on

I've thought for some weeks that apprehensiveness will probably hold the SP back until the oil flows. In the past we have happily been saying 'in a year we will have revenue', that success and wealth in the future is a foregone conclusion. But now there is no hiding place - its coming, and coming soon. People are nervous just in case Dr T is wrong. Even I feel that a bit, even though I am convinced he is right.

Fingers crossed.
That may seem an odd thing to say since this should be all about logic and cold hard reasons for the SP to move - unfortunately that doesn't seem to apply here so fingers crossed it is!