Member Info for johnpwh

Welcome Scousehouse
Despite what you may read because of a couple of posters this is a friendly board!

Hi jqnewcastle
My last takeover battle (not a battle, capitulation!) was McCarthy & Stone. I actually managed to come out with a loss on that one. Again, as I believe here (though I have only been in BCN for about 18 months) there had been a significantly higher bid rejected by Management previously. The difference between MCS and BCN is that apparently MCS was struggling with Covid. By contrast BCN appears to be in a 'perfect storm' of opportunity which more or less means it could have been printing money in the near future.
GF couldn't be stopped from bidding, all quoted companies are at the risk of that. But the big game changer is whether the BOD recommend it, and it very much looks like it will.

I have interest in 2 companies subject to bids/ proposed bids at the moment. In each case the shareholders are very critical of the BODs.
I can't say that such an attitude is incorrect, I find the VEC bid disappointing having spent I think 20 years (+) with SKP/VEC.
All we can do is vote against, but be realistic that us PIs combined votes hold little sway. Getting stressed about it is more likely to affect your health than change the outcome

Hmmm. As expected. I did say earlier that I thought that GF would be unable to vary the offer price without jumping through hoops if (which it will) it passes their S/H vote on 28th.So if there is no revision to what is being put to that meeting then the official bid of 67.5p seems nailed on 1st July. GF think 67.5p will get this, and they are not fools - they appear to have outwitted the BCN board at every turn, though some suspect that wouldn't exactly be hard.
Outcomes seem to be success of the bid at 67.5, collapse of the bid due to BCN S/H rejection or a counter bid (unlikely due to the 28.8% shareholding of GF that the BCN board invited in and welcomed with open arms).
I'll oppose the bid with enthusiasm, and thanks again to Dee for his frankly remarkable efforts. However frankly I hold a fatalistic view here, I think its pretty much done. Maybe I've just got out of bed the wrong side today but I don't think so

Bravo Bluegrass, well said.
Re the other subject of the day, I haven't had time to look into it but I imagine that there is good reason to assume that a defeated vote at 67.5p would lead to a significant period until GF could submit a new revised offer. Otherwise GF could simply make a sequence of offers, each marginally greater than the last until one was finally accepted. However until the vote takes place I am sure that the offer price would be amendable after the offer announcement.
The permissions that GF seem to need to seek leave them inflexible about varying terms between an offer being made and the vote being taken. Since they are to hold a S/H meeting based on 67.5p then logically it seem that it wont really be possible to vary before the due date of a vote, so if defeated it may be some time before they return.
These are thoughts, I'm not sure of the actual facts governing the bid.

.

I agree with Dee.
I started (a few weeks back, boy does that seem a long time back now eh?) defending the Board, particularly against some of the near libellous rants accusing them of blatant criminality. My opinion has changed in the sense that I now feel they are, shall we say, less than impressive and are failing miserably in their obligations to protect shareholders interests.
However.
I share with you a fear of what would happen in the vacuum of failing to re-elect any directors that are up for re-election (usually the office is for 3 years??). I would prefer a rap on the back of the hand and being sent to the naughty step but to continue in office with a different attitude for the reasons mentioned.
Last thought, we used to have the occasional, if not over frequent, video interviews published with Peter Secker. Why have we not had one since the 6th May given that the news is so significant - we had one after the most recent fundraising?

Great update Dee. Thank you for your efforts

HI all,
Just to let you know where I am. I have absolutely no intention to sell shares at the moment and was in fact contemplating adding. However I cannot give a 100% commitment to not sell beneath my current holding - realistically I don't believe anyone can give such an unwavering commitment, so I am just being honest.
Regarding the offer, I think it was Foz who drew my attention to the GF shareholders meeting on 28th June. This implies an offer of 67.5p being made on 1st July, as that price will be presented at the GF S/H meeting and its hard to see why they would vote it down. What happens after then is anyones guess, but you can imagine that the BCN board will have a good idea if they have M&Gs support.
I don't fear GF going on a sulky go slow if this bid is defeated, that is illogical with them holding well over 50% of the asset in one way or tother. It is inconceivable that Tesla is unaware of this situation, they wouldn't be this successful if their head was stuck in the sand - it more a question of what they could do about it. The BCN board have put GF in a very, very strong position at Sonara, pretty unforgivable as with a rising Lithium price there was surely other financing possibilities

Bonkers
Well I'm responding to you, but I hope I'm not one of your green bars!
I welcome contrarian views, makes us all think that we may have it wrong. That is healthy and useful. However when the poster appears from nowhere (often with a membership date coinciding with his/her first post), posts on only one company, is posting continuously and with no obvious knowledge then, like you, alarm bells ring. Why would they spend so much time and effort 'helping' others for no reward? Must be very virtuous and caring.....
I filter sooner rather than later now. I similarly filter rampers who come up with irritating ramps like 'its going to be £10 next week just see', 'Choo choo choo the train is leaving the station', 'this is a 10 bagger, remember you read it here' etc. etc. yawn. I'd rather see a green bar and go and watch paint dry or stick pins in my eyes than read the tripe that these people write.

Hi Foz. What has occurred is whether GF would need to return to its Chinese masters if they wanted to increase the bid price in response to resistance from M&G and us PIs? I.e, are the permissions sought about the principle of taking over BCN, or the price to be paid as well?

Ha! Don't mock Foz, rise above it.
Getting back to BCN, todays news (the 2nd RNS, not the disrespectful first anti PI first RNS) is as I long predicted unfortunately. Delay. And I'm not convinced it will prove to be the only delay. Not a happy day

Thanks for your posts today new poster PuzzleTree. I'll stick with friends Dee & Foz thanks, people with deep knowledge of both this company and the situation it finds itself in. You have not demonstrated either. In fact you have posted nothing of value whatsoever.
Think you may be my speed record for filtering pointless posters, please filter me also. If you are Bobthingy then I have filtered you twice which amuses me

itsouthere
So why should I or anybody else trust the motives of anyone who 'suddenly rocks up for first time' on BCN? Overnight you have morphed into pretty much the most prolific poster here

Just read.
Thanks again Dee. No matter how this turns out you gave it your all

great post DJ. Maybe I can clarify one point for gwm. The Ozaltin deal led to a dilution of just over 50% in AAUs current (and immediately foreseeable) revenue producing assets. With that dilution, and distribution of a significant proportion of the 'big chunk of money', several posters here doubt that a regular dividend is possible/likely in the near future.
Hope things are good with you DJ, expect its becoming balmy and you've put your winter jumpers away where you are.....

dgaser
When the bid was announced the SP was about 120p with the special dividend of 19p about to become xd, That event would undoubtedly reduced the pre bid SP by around 19p.
So you must compare 120p - 19p = 101p with the 136p Carlyle offer. I'm not advocating the offer, just saying that you have to compare on the same basis

CHRISP
There is undoubted good reasoning in what you say. However I do not see that as reason to stop fighting.
I'm not sure where this statement from the board has been made, i haven't seen it. If it is as reported then I am angry . The board of this company is tasked with safeguarding the interests of its shareholders. It is not doing so by threatening them

You're as old as me. That was 35 years back!

Thanks all. Not sure I've ever had posts with my name as a subject before!
Of course looked at purely from an investment perspective, if you accept the Chinese domination hypothesis (which does have legs I think) then maybe the way forward is to invest in the most promising independent Lithium producers and wait for them to fall one by one. Cynical perhaps, but then again in my 9much) younger days I enjoyed Thatchers family silver sell offs and Building Society carpet bagging! Our younger posters are forgiven for not having a clue what I am on about.
Hope everyone is having a pleasant sunny bank holiday.