Member Info for JohnLewis79

Bugger....£20 down!

I've had a £20 bet with another MSi investor we finish down on the session.

That's on the opening price of 980 (that's being generous)....

Hi WOE, I'm sure your right but I just can't be bothered with people who need me to start subscribing. Is it a state secret? I've said enuff!!

I'm trying to workout how I can post something and you will all have to post your email details, dob, nos of shares, etc...

Well Lord Lee can do one. I will not sign up with my email address! There's far too much of this intrusion to read an article you probably disagree with anyways.

It drives me nuts.

OK I'm hyper sensitive on having to sign up to bloody everything these days! I'll see if I can remember more on ROT and how to measure it. The company must be doing something right in the defence business as opposed to a volume mob phone operation. The metrics probably crossover our 4 divisions.

Good to see a few more buyers appearing. The message is leaking out slowly and the products are obviously top class, check out the Paladin ground attack vehicle. I'd think there's a wide moat around our defence business with strong barriers to entry.

However we're still a small microcap stock with big ambitions.

Is this an ideal time for a major to take it to another level?

Morning Roger. Good to hear the company are recruiting people. Usually a sign a company is on an upward path. Afterall best join a company going places than one attracting noone.

The performance of any company is determined by the performance of its employees and top class firms quickly identify these people. I remember reading about a metric used called ROT (return on talent) or top knowledge generators should be rewarded.

Companies that constantly improve ROT grow at a rapid rate because knowledge is one of the most important factors for business success. The upshot from memory was organisations should try and improve ROT and intellectual capital constantly in order to sustain sales growth.

I know Apple's business soared when Steve Jobs was CEO and faded when he left. It soared again when he returned as CEO as he was very effective in that environment giving the key people the authority and resources to boost the ROT team.

He had an instinctive feel for Apple's business which subsequently turned out hard to replicate. I don't know whether MSi have the structure to identify who is winning and keeping the best customers but long-term you need to know before you waste time and money.

Nyse data

Issues 2843

Advances 1017

Declines 1738

U/c 88

NH 104

NL 37

T/vol(bn) 906

------------

DJ -137 (44,714)

SP -28 (6039)

NS -52 (21,411)

R2 -6 (1445)

WTI $73

10ytb 4•527%

----------

MSCI(W) -8 (3828)

Gold Bugs +2 (304)

---------------

Latest :- Vix 17. Brent $75.

Gold $2761. Copper $4•271.

Palm $1033. Silver $31•625.

$1•245. €1•194.

FF -8. DF +90.

Wall St ended down but off days lows as the Fed held rates steady. Tech shares were the bigest drag on the S&P. Nvidia fell $6 to $123 and Msoft slumped $20 to $422 in after hours trading.

The 2Q nos from cloud computing services Azure disappointed investors and revenue guidance for the current Q fell short of expectations.

Tesla 4Q nos missed estimates and revenues dropped 8%. The stock fell $9 in the session but after hours jumped $16 to $405 when the company said we expect the business to return to growth in 2025.

On the Dow 14/30 of the blue chips fell led down by UH, Amex & Amazon. Going up Nike, IBM & Disney. Investors have been worried about Trump's proposed tariffs which could increase inflationary pressures and slow the pace of rate cuts. Traders think Powell will cut rates 2 times more this year.

The Dec reading of personal consumption index is due on Friday this assesses the inflationary trajectory. Powell said "we do not need to be in a hurry to adjust our policy stance" "We are well positioned for the challenge at hand."

Volumes on US exchanges was 13•0bn traded v the 15•5bn 20 day average. On the NYSE declining issues outnumbered advances by a 1•6 to 1 ratio.

Morning all.

Most of the major Far Eastern mrkts are closed for the Lunar New Year holidays as traders await the US Fed's interest rate decision later today. Most expect rates to remain unchanged.

On Wall St stocks showed a strong move to the upside as the tech heavy NSDQ led the bounce back after steep losses on Monday. On the Dow 18/30 stocks fell led by Coca Cola, Honeywell & P&G while at the top end Nvidia clawed back $11 to $129 followed by Apple, Msoft and Salesforce boosting the S&P 500 tech sector c.4% as bargain hunters returned in force.

The 4Q 2024 US earnings season is in full swing with notable companies reporting. Boeing reported its second bigest ever annual loss since 2020 shares added $3 to $178 after CEO Kelly Ortberg said he was confident production targets will be hit this year. While GM fell $5 to $50 after results due to Tariff fears but Royal Caribbean rallied 12% ($265) after forecasting annual profits above estimates. Vols on US exchanges were a below average 13•8bn.

Nyse data

Issues 2842

Advances 1230

Declines 1545

U/c 67

NH 120

NL 26

T/vol(m) 936

-------------

DJ +136 (44,850)

SP +55 (6068)

NS +336 (21,463)

R2 u/c (1451)

WTI $74

10ytb 4•528%

----------

MSCI(W) +23 (3836)

Gold Bugs +3 (302)

---------------

Latest :- Vix 16. Brent $76.

Gold $2760. Copper $4•217.

Palm $1032. Silver $30•880.

$1•245. €1•193.

FF +8. DF +17.

Morning all.

Wall Street's tech stocks took a battering from investors yesterday as China's DeepSeek disrupter Ai model hit the sector knocking the Nsdq 647 points, it's bigest one day % drop.

The low cost Chinese Ai model prompted a steep sell off in US chip makers particularly Nvidia which tumbled 17% to $118 knocking $593bn off its mrkt cap the deepest ever one day loss for a co on Wall St. Some say this has the potential to derail the investment case for the entire Ai supply chain.

Rival Broadcom sank 17% as DeepSeeks sudden popularity emerged startling global stock mrkts. Nvida slipped to no 3 in the world big company mrkt cap stakes behind Msoft which reports shortly.

However the Dow largely insulated from tech woes gained 289 points though the wider S&P registered its bigest one day fall since Jan 10 dropping 1•5%.

Nyse data

Issues 2849

Advances 1604

Declines 1203

U/c 42

NH 79

NL 21

T/vol (tn) 1•13

------------

DJ +289 (44,714)

SP -89 (6012)

NS -647 (21,127)

R2 -5 (1450)

WTI $73

10ytb 4•556%

----------

MSCI(W) -43 (3813)

Gold Bugs -6 (299)

---------------

Latest :- Vix 18. Brent $77.

Gold $2742. Copper $4•268.

Palm $1024. Silver $30•510.

$1•245. €1•193.

FF +6. DF -133.

Morning all.

Asian mrkts are mixed this morning at the start of wk 5 paring gains after the release of disappointing Chinese Industrial and manufacturing profits data.

Traders are also cautious ahead of monetary policy decisions by the Fed & ECB later this week. US mrkts were down on Friday and futures see a poor start for the week ahead.

There are also extended holidays on account of the Lunar New Year in S.Korea, Taiwan & Indonesia. Sydney mrkts are closed for Australia Day having closed up 30 on Friday.

In Tokyo mrkts are well down at lunch the Nikkei was off 200 points as blue chips came under pressure with techs seeing consistent selling as Softbank fell 6% taking Advantest down 8% and Tokyo Electron and Screen Holdings 4% each. The USD trades in the 155 yen range.

In Hong Kong and Shanghai mrkts are better but lack direction and are subjected to bouts of profit taking as soon as gains of 1% are seen. Ytd HK is marginally higher but both Shanghai mrkts are down 2% & 3% on concerns over continuing weak consumer spend of which c.25% is done on line.

Physical retail sales account for 50%.

Latest :- Vix 15. Brent $77.

Gold $2754. Copper $4•282. Palm $1026. Silver $30•270.

$1•246. €1•191.

FF -64. DF -360.

Morning all.

Roger it was on

UK ftse Aerospace and Defence Ind analyses.

I'll have to check back but I think it was on Simply Wall St .....

Based on the bulk of MSi profits are generated by defence our p/e ratio is c.13x earnings compared to the UK Aerospace and Defence average of 26x. That's a considerable discount and whether that's warranted is up to investors in MSi to decide.

Seems given the stock has been trading in the 900-1160 level since May'24 and there has been ample opportunity to revalue the shares, investors are happy at this level. Of course lack of consistent trading volume doesn't help and the mms will always take the line of least resistance or trade the spread.

The other main drawback is lack of newsflow, the lifeblood of microcap Aim stocks which are generally valued below £200m. MSi falls into this category and while not a penny stock in the strict sense of the term we're in the lowest sector category, among those in severe financial difficulties.

This has suited our board for many years. Whether the upcoming reorganisation will address this bugbare is unknown. Unfortunately its really a "don't rock the boat" scenario, we're more than happy with the status quo.

Morning all.

Nyse data

Issues 2852

Advances 1550

Declines 1205

U/c 97

NH 112

NL 12

T/vol(bn) 935

-------------

DJ -141 (44,424)

SP -17 (6101)

NS -127 (21,774)

R2 -3 (1455)

WTI $75

10ytb 4•634%

-----------

MSCI(W) +1 (3857)

Gold Bugs +4 (306)

---------------

Close :- Vix 15. Brent $77.

Gold $2771. Copper $4•311.

Palm $1022. Silver $31•340.

Yen 156. Yuan 7•24.

$1•248. €1•189.

FF -14. DF -17.

Morning all.

Volumes and trade deals while still small picked up in the latter part of week 4 to cross 62,000 of which 33,000 were buys and 29,000 sells, so still no clear direction of travel.

Ytd the UK Aerospace and defence industry is up 6•7% and looking forward earnings are forecast to grow by 23% this year. The industry is trading close to its 3 year average PE ratio of 26×.

Sp 950-980

1/25 910

H 1136

L 770

7/88 113

----

Trds 90

T/vol 63,000

Buys 34,000

Sells 29,000

Buy 54%

Av/trd 700

-----

Ytd

MSi +4%

100 +4%

250 -1%

All +4%

Aim u/c

---

Oil +3%

Gold +5%

Palm -8%

----

Wall St moved higher over the course of the trading day yesterday extending the strong upward move seen over the past several sessions. The 500 closed higher for the 7th time of 8 to a new closing record of 6119.

At the WEF in Davos Trump said he was working to reverse inflation, lower taxes and boost fossil fuel production. He urged global leaders to make their products in the US or face threats of tariffs.

Of the Dows top 30 blue chips only 4 fell, Chevron, Coca Cola, Travellers and Apple which lost its top spot as the world's most valuable company to Nvidia now valued at $3•605tn to Apple's $3•363tn. GE Aerospace stock rose 8•5% to $200 after the Co reported stronger Dec Q profits an increased dividend and a share repurchase plan.

Nyse data

Issues 2838

Advances 1567

Declines 1188

U/c 83

NH 99

NL 27

T/vol(bn) 4•4

------------

DJ +408 (44,565)

SP +32 (6119) R

NS +48 (21,901)

R2 +5 (1458)

WTI $75

10ytb 4•637%

----------

MSCI(W) +18 (3856)

Gold Bugs u/c (302)

----------------

Latest :- Vix 15. Brent $78.

Gold $2773. Copper $4•373.

Palm $1013. Silver $31•280.

$1•239. €1•186.

FF +6. DF -10.

Morning all.

US stocks rallied as the S&P hit a intra-day record (6101) boosted by chip stocks after Trump announced a $500bn private sector partnership between Oracle, Softbank and OpenAI called Stargate. Musk dubbed the project as a financial farce as they "don't have the money".

Investors were impressed with a slew of strong numbers from Netflix (record Q4 subscribers), United Air & P&G. Of the S&P firms reporting 79% have topped earnings estimates. On the Dow 13/30 posted gains led by Nvidia & Msoft. Leading the laggards Home Depot, J&J and Chevron.

Gold is experiencing one of its best start to the year as traders bet it will break through $3000 during the year as Govts continue to engage in deficit spending. The US Govt ran a $1•8tn deficit in fiscal 2024.

Nyse data

Issues 2847

Advances 928

Declines 1843

U/c 76

NH 135

NL 25

T/vol(tn) 1•0

--------------

DJ +131 (44,157)

SP +37 (6086)

NS +286 (21,853)

R2 -12 (1453)

WTI $75

10ytb 4•612%

----------

MSCI(W) +21 (3839)

Gold Bugs -1 (302)

---------------

Latest :- Vix 15. Brent $79.

Gold $2751. Copper $4•261.

Palm $1004. Silver $31•210.

$1•232. €1•183.

FF -30. DF -14.

Morning all.

Wall St stocks gained throughout the day after a slow start to day one of Trump's Presidency. The major averages all ended the day on a firm note as bond yields dropped and hopes of early cuts in rates boosted investor sentiment. Gold was back in favour hitting a 2 month high amid tariff uncertainties.

The Dow closed up 538 at 44,026 and the 500 ended 53 higher while the Nsdq settled at 19,757 up 125 points dragged lower by Apple stock suffering 2 downgrades from investment firms ahead of the firms Dec Q nos next week. The stock fell $7 to $222 on worries over iphone revenues due to poor demand and a slower roll out and uptake of the new Ai model.

Heading higher 3M the global conglomerate saw a significant jump in its shares in the wake of its Q4 earnings report which exceeded expectations. The stock closed up $6 to $147 well ahead of its 2023 low of $73.

DJ +538 (44,026)

SP +53 (6049)

NS +125 (21,567)

R2 +23 (1465)

WTI $76

10ytb 4•591%

----------

MSCI(W) +29 (3817)

Gold Bugs +6 (303)

---------------

Latest :- Vix 15. Brent $79.

Gold $2747. Copper $4•321.

Palm $1014. Silver $31•575.

$1•233. €1•185. 10ytb 4•587

FF +1. DF -17.

Morning all.

Another 1000 illegal migrants were usherd in today with full benefits and a nice warm room for the night.

Soon we will be so full of illegal migrants that we'll all have to move out to Ruanda for a bed for the night. Book your passage now!

One of the drawbacks of owning shares in micro cap stocks with no free float to speak of is buy/sells can be exaggerated giving one no feel for the underlying mrkt sentiment. Yet as you know mrkt makers will always accommodate larger trades.

I'm sure you have noticed as soon as a buy trade is posted a sell trade follows almost immediately. That's fine in my book and while there is little trade volume we're stuck in this going nowhere trudge through Starmer and Rachel from accounts screw ups of the economy.

Now I'm ambivalent about Trump, but by God we could do with some of his optimism and enthusiasm instead of the useless bookish accountant Starmer talking about his latest spread sheet and whose poll ratings are in the toilet.

What doesn't Soppy Starmer get about invigorating the British people who are raring to go as soon as Rachel Thieves let's the reins off for more free enterprise and less tax and spend beloved by Labour Chancellors?

Donald was saved by God.

Whose gonna save Starmer?

For God's sake do we really need an RNS confirming a board appointment? How about an RNS your losing contracts? Will you RNS that?