Member Info for JohnLewis79

Little to report on a day Brexit returned to worry investors, the Govt laying out its contingency plans for a 'No Deal' Brexit. A no deal seen as the worst of all options by mrkt participants and could lead to severe economic disruption. Hammond putting the boot in on a doomsday scenario (Project Fear?) in a letter to the Treasury, National incomes falling 10% and Banking services under threat to UK citizens living abroad. All this uncertainty is not fully priced in imo and a sense of drift pervades as 'D' Day approaches. Goodness knows how mrkts would react should we walk? Not well i suspect. However the wheels keep turning the deals a' burning. Miners were among the bigest losers, Anglo & Fresnillo on weaker commodity prices and Ocado up again by c.2% to 1121, not so long ago talk was of Ocado going to the wall. Retailers had a change of heart on the good summer weather boosting footfall & talk of better sales. M&S, AB Foods and Next gained between 1-1.6%. Top loser was NMC (-c.3%). Sterling traded c.$1.2831 off c.0.70%. At close the 100 (-11), 250 (+23), S/caps (-12) & Aim (+8). US stocks fell early as a new round of tariff sanctions were instituted by the warring parties. Talks continue. Economic news was barely noted, Benefit claims fell 2000 to the lowest level for 50 years (210.000). US economic nos cont to underpin sentiment, GDP at 4.3%, inflation on target and unemployment below 4% keeps investor confidence high. Stocks on the risers board were Visa, Home Depot & Msoft, down the other end declines were led by Exxon, G'S & Caterpillar all lower by c.1-2%. September is one of.... if not the worst month for the 500 & 33 both showing negative returns for the month. The 500 falls 55% of the time, neg return (1.01%), the Dow 70/120 for a neg return of (1.03%) and the techs 45% a neg return of (0.49%). A slow return from the summer holidays and low volumes account for this....in part. Dow ended off 76, the 500 down 5 Nsdq fell 11. Asia lower in the main, TK up 104 HK down 178 on insurances and news that Chairman and controlling shareholder of Casino operator Landing was unable to be contacted. The stock has plunged 70% in last 2 days and is now suspended. China talks ended with no progress and shares are off the SHCOMP lower by 11. Like the UK Brexit worries not priced in have Asian mrkts fully priced the potential disasters to the region? The nos: Oil $75.02. Gold $ 1187. Vix 12.41. Coin $6496. £$ 1.281. £€ 1.109. FF -9. DF +48. Morning all.

H....I'm always up early a hangover from my Malay days on the Rubber estates...tapping of the Rubber started at the crack of dawn...not me tapping the trees just supervising and organising the Labour as an Assistant Mgr. I'm in bed most days by 7.00pm and I like the quiet of the early morning before the South Circular becomes a race track at 5.00am. Concur, a fudge but Euro stand to lose as much as us..if not more. Sanity will prevail i'm sure. Big business will put the screws on Germany who will pressure Brussels to get an agreement that suits everybody. I used to follow this religiously but am thoroughly ****ed off with the Supply Teacher.... i have lost all interest.

Gotcha...a fair bit further South than I have been. Back a'ways I played golf at St Enodoc on the West coast, a golf match Porthcawl v them...we won easily Heh, heh, heh!....i think!

Where's Raze the Roof?

Well I'm not confused H. A good bet at 11/1 finished 3rd...happy days!

Swerved Roaring Lion (3/1) winner...grrrrr! Bet £200 --- total return £400 on Dave's Dilemma 2nd at 12s. Today one bet on Ezirya (10s) 3 places in the 3.35 York. I'm waiting for the first show.

Bofp calcs PMO trades on 16x earnings and more importantly for every $ owned by holders, $9 are owed to creditors. Take G we owe c.138pps to creditors backed by shareholder funds of c.450p at ($1.285). I know where I'd rather be.....but some might say we are not leveraged enough and should be borrowing more to pursue an aggressive growth policy. The board are mindful of adding value. So if by the acquisition route can we add value given many oilies are on the recovery tack and a $ buying a $ might not be the best use of funds.

PMO profit after tax $78m, net debt $2.5bn.

Ftse rose early to 7607 as Trump tweeted "congatulations America" celebrating the longest (113 months) bull run in history. The 100 drifted off in afternoon dealings to close at 7568 (+9) the All +4 (4168) & 250 u/c (20642). Sterling bought $1.289 little changed. Cos in the news, Persimmon good H1 results gained 1.5% helped by an upwards guidance and Ocado topped the leader board. A better Gold price boosted Fresnillo and oilies moved up on the OP above $74 for the first time in 2 wks. Govt due to announce preparations should a 'No deal' happen on 3/2009. N.Y. could not sustain recent gains (5 straight).... investors in profit taking mode took the 30 down 89 points on.an.up.flat.down.trading day. The 500 u/c and Nsdq up 30 (5th straight). Tesla the stock of the moment slipped to $320. The Fed's hawkish view on rates (much to Trumps chagrin) kept investors on their toes expecting another 0.25% rise in Sept should the trade & tariff problem not get out of hand and the unpredictable Trump doesn't put his foot in it. His political & legal woes are having little effect on stocks though this might change by Nov mid-term elections. The strong economy (High employment and lower taxes) and great corporate results cont to bouy investor sentiment to the exclusion of most else as the Dow stays above 4% ytd gain. Far East shares are little moved and trade on local factors & Co results. TK added (55) in afternoon trade with 'defensives' doing well (caution on trade & US rate policy) but autos down. HK fell from the bell (-200 atm) on poor techs and likewise SH is off c.10 at mid day, reversing gains of last few sessions though Banks & real estate are up. Breaking news Beijing have just announced $16bn taxes on US coal, medical devices & cars. The nos: Oil $74.73. Gold $1191. Vix 12.25. £$ 1.2875. £€ 1.114. Coin $6392. FF -25 & DF -40. Morning all.

Whatever the prospective merits of a G & Gkp.... merger these are mainly plusses for both sets of holders in the longer term. I don't think DNO are in the frame cultural and management differences might be a hindrance, also they are doing well enough on their own. As a few of us have said G needs to lead the mrkt not be led by the mrkt! Im sure present management have a direction / mission statement, so they need to convey that to holders.

G edges ahead...I'm not into did they go 'to the moon' type stuff but GvGkp is looking very smelly.

No trading to speak of this morning here! Summer blues I guess?

Oil having a better day...$73.70

Must run into profit takers but I hate to go agin 'momentum' stocks.

Gkp worth more now!

660 v 671 recently...

SudG you card!!

As sure as eggs be eggs its a coming down the track from any number of places we are familiar with...for instance, buybacks an easy way to boost eps without doing very much and great for management on share options & bonuses. This boosts the short term..... future profits subsumed by a share ramp. Last time they reached these levels was 3/2008 and we know what happened next. A main bug bear of pis is the way shares are traded via algos, computers, high-velocity, smart beta, extfs etc...which are estimated to be c.60% of the daily vol of US equities. Quant funds are expected to exceed $1tr this year double three years ago. These black box operations are designed by tech specialists with no understanding of markets and are mostly based on reducing costs and guaranteeing quick buck returns. This leads to a short term view of shares as since the early 1900s (Stocks held for c.9 months) to just 2 months in 2008 to....you won't believe this...20 SECONDS TODAY! This data collated by Cumberland Advisors (USA). Ownership of shares are changing hands in fractions of seconds as Investment Banks & Fund Managers turn into high tech businesses. Add in A1 this further distances share dealings from any human control. Instinctively I feel this is hugely unsafe, remember the flash crashes and fat fingers? This might be the brave new world for some but not me and is just another massive negative imo.

Morning TT. The headline figs & yoy increases make for good reading but look closer and lower down there's much improvement needed and I thought Idea was fully if not over valued at 130ish. Obviously the mrkt who are better placed to evaluate Idea disagree. However I make my own decisions on when to sell and obviously didn't sell at the current top,.... one rarely does. Notwithstanding that you can't buck the mrkt and Idea may well trade higher so I'll wait for the next set of nos. I'm in no rush to dive back in even as this 10 yr bull mrkt has just broken the prev record set back in 1990. What happens from here on in will decide investors actions. There are enough black clouds on the horizon to seriously damage ones equity wealth and to that effect am quitting while in front because I reason any % gains from here on will be far less than potential losses I could suffer. At least thats my take on things. These last 10 years has seen the Dow rise c.19100 points and the ftse 3940. What price those nos occuring again? Not in my lifetime for sure. Of course pis wont need huge mrkt gains to make money but its a whole lot harder if they turn agin you.

Today the US bull mrkt which some say started back in 9/2009 (the height of the financial crisis) will be 10 years (3453 days) old breaking the previous record (10/90 to 10/2000). Others say the run should be calculated from either 3/2013 or 2/2016. Whatever, during that time the S&P rose 308% the Dow 282% & the Nsdq stormed above 490%. Not doing so well the UK All Share added 127% & the 100 gained 108%. The Nikkei improved 206% but a long way off 30.000 highs of the '80s. Whatever the US nos are mightilly impressive with many commentators saying the S&P will hit 3000 in 2009. Earlier miners pulled the 100 lower (1st time in 4 sessions) though CAC & DAX added 28 & 53. The 100 moved in and out of plus territory most of the day. Sterling traded at $1.2865. BHP earnings disappoint (lower than forecast) despite a bumper increased div the shares fell 2%. Morrison's out performing its peers especially SBRY the worst performer, topped the leader board while Sage dead cat bounced (+c.2%) and Carillion was called a 'ponzi' scheme. At close the All was off 7, the 100 down 26 but the 250, S/caps & Aim all ended higher. N.Y opened strongly up 80 as the big exporters gained from a weaker $. The S&P & Russell 2000 both hit intraday records as stocks tie the All time bull high. The Dow added 64 (25822) but 3% off its record close the 500 just 0.3% off its record high. Stock gainers included Intel, GS, Caterpillar and Amex). Fallers were Coca Cola, Merck and J&J. With 2Q earnings all but over investors will be scouring the Fed minutes & Powell speech for any clues or insights into trade policy and rates. The Fed an independent body is not much pleased about Trumps continual harping on the Fed's stance on upping rates to dampen the economy. With China talks underway Trump does not expect much and is forging ahead with $200bn of tariffs in Chinese goods hoping the mrkt celebrations will divert attention away from his political & legal troubles mainly concerning Cohen & Manafort. Asia is mixed (a nos of mrkts closed) TK & HK up mid session, 141 & 130 and SH down 11 on local factors. Trade talks yet to make any impact as Trump calls China a 'currency' manipulator (Y down c.10%) attempting to offset tariff damage and a weakening economy. The nos. Oil (Futures gained for the 4th day) $72.84, Gold $1195, £$ 1.291. £€ 1.115. Vix 12.85, Coin $6710. Ftse called 25 lower the Dow down 60. Morning all.