Member Info for JohnLewis79

London shares remained weak on Tuesday the 100 closing down 6 after 50+ falls at mid session led by tobaccos ( Imps & BAT) an early jump in the US helped stop the ftse sliding lower. The All fell 4, 250 off 33 & S/caps down 9. Stocks in focus were Ryan Air hit by wildcat strikes fell 1% while Ashted jumped 5% as it cont its share buyback programme following excellent Q1 nos. CEO of Jaguar Land Rover said he could not guarantee the UK manufacturing plants would operate should there be a no deal Brexit. JLR employ over 4000 workers at its UK plants. Sterling bought $1.304 on the back of good jobs report unemployment (4%) at lowest since 1975 and a big improvement in new mortgage lending approvals at their highest since 2008 with total gross advances hitting £66.7bn boosted sentiment. Mike Carney has agreed to stay on as BOE chief through the Brexit process just as the PM faces a determined effort by 50 pro Brexiteers to scupper her Chequers paper which allies us too closely to Europe. US stocks rose strongly at the bell and the Dow was up 130+ as London closed however fatigue set in and the indexes traded sideways all afternoon in a narrow 40 range boosted somewhat by energy and telecoms. The Dow fell over the line up 114 (25971) S&P added 11 (2888) and the techs put on 48 (7972) at the days close. September is historically the weakest month for shares posting c.1% declines on the S&P since nos first began. Stocks in focus, inc Tesla off $6 on broker downgrade, Francesscas Holdings tanked 35% on poor Q2 earnings while Apple put on $6, Microsoft $2 and Fbk $2 to $165 thats down c.$55 this year. US economic nos cont to please investors as small business sentiment climbed to a record in Aug as job openings hit a 7m high for July. The US budget deficit hit a high of $211bn in Aug twice that of a year ago as spending on interest jumped 25%, defence 10% Social Sec 5% and Medicare 7%. Unfortunately receipts fell 3% & corporate taxes were down 30%. The deficit is worsening alarmingly in the first 11 months to $895bn ($220bn more than prev year) as Trumps economic strategy to boost the economy & GDP gathers pace. On the China /US trade front which both countries rely on they are mostly 'closed' economies. Exports account for c.20% of China's GDP down from 36% in 2006. For the US this share is lower at just 12% of GDP and bilateral trade between them contributes just 2.5% to China GDP & 1% to US GDP. Perhaps this explains the ambivalent attitude of investors to the on going spat.... as on a worst case scenario, say a 20% fall in trade between the two the hit to GDP would be 0.5% for China and 0.2% to the US hardly a cause to start jumping out of Windows (report by Capital Economics). The sell off continues a'pace in Asia, the Nikkei is down 126 and HK enters bear mrkt territory down 130 the 6th straight decline led by Banks, Macao Casinos & techs. SH off 8 at mid session on weakness in financ

Must be H pushing up (+10) the price this morning.

No bunks nowt to do with me...ive had my bit of fun trading G for a few hundreds profit so i know i won't get lucky again. Could be H bottom feeding of course!

Aug 7th the sp closed at a high (290) for 2018 valuing G at about £812m. The oil price was $74.54 and nett debt stood at $64m. Since then nett debt will have reduced, cash increased, the oil price improving (c.$77.50) and barrelage going up. One would expect these to boost the share price or at the least to maintain the 280-90 level. However contrarian you are the fall to 220 is plain silly. The stock has fallen c.70p that's not far short of £200m. If this is the stock market doing its job then the sooner we delist the better. I've never swallowed that ' value will out' nonsense, G being a classic example...1000 to 220 as value after 6 years or more refuses to 'out'. I can't and won't wait anymore for the mrkt to come to its senses gripped as it is by valuations no-one knows how to calculate or understand other than were being played by the unscrupulous spiv merchants in London. Enuffs enuff!

Short sellers are circling Apple some $9.8bn has been bet against Apple in the expectation they will have to increase prices of their phones, ipods and Air-Pod headphones by c.20% if the US goes ahead with plans to raise duties on Apple's foreign suppliers. Apple is about to launch 3 new versions of their new iPhone in the face of slowing growth and increasing costs to the consumer. The top 3 most shorted US shares are Apple, Amazon ($9.6bn) & Tesla ($8.6bn).

...l driver of stocks. SH down 19% ytd. The nos: Oil $77.50. Gold $1194. £$ 1.303. £€ 1.124. Coin $6345. Vix 14.16. FF+8. DF +52 Morning all.

Two stories making the headlines in the US, first Florence a Cat 4 Hurricain threatens c.1000 miles of the Eastern Seaboard now designated an emergency area with an expected 1million + residents evacuating North & South Carolina. Florence (winds of 140 mph) is expected to land on Thursday. Second is the Woodward book detailing the 'inside' story of Trumps dysfunctional White House which Trump has called 'tosh' or rather the American equivalent. A largely uneventful day in N.Y the Dow off 60 at close as the Nsdq & 500 snapped 4 days of losses, techs rebounding gained 22 and the 500 added 5 as (8/11) sub groups were in plus territory. Ytd the Dow is up c.5% & 500 up c.8%. China and tariffs are never far away, Trump adding a further $67bn to the already announced $200bn of import costs. When and if China retaliates this could provoke the 'mother of all melt ' downs, quantifting the damage to global trade is not exactly known atm, suffice to say the ripple effects could be hugely damaging to EMrkts in particular. Stocks in focus Apple off 1% urged on by Trump to bring back their production to the US, is up 29% ytd. Tesla had a rare up day on restructuring news added 8% and Nike gained 2% as online sales grew at 31%. Going south Alibaba off 4% as CEO Jack Ma steps down and CBS fell 1.5% as the CEO faces sexual misconduct charges. Boeing up and down on a daily basis fell 2%, United Health lost 3% and Goldman 1%. Earlier London contended with a raft of economic news and nos. UK GDP nos grew m-o-m 0.3% thanks to the World Cup, the warm weather, retail sales and services. In the 3 months to July GDP rose 0.6% following 0.4% in prev Q. However productivity fell and the UK trade deficit narrowed by £1.4bn to £3.6bn which may give the BOE second thoughts on raising rates. Stocks in the news were Debenhams off 15%....store closures through a voluntary CVA and appointing restructuring experts scared off investors. Debs expect to report profits mid range of broker forecasts £31-36m. Dignity sank 6% as rival funeral operators cut prices to beat competitor quotes. Sterling bought $1.302 on Brexit news, a deal could be 'inked' by Nov if the Irish question can be resolved. Whether Mays Chequers paper will get through Parliament is the stumbling block. The 100 added 1 (7279) All +2 the 250 gained 50, Aim & S/caps off 3 and 60. Ytd the 100 is off 5%. The DAX & CAC were little changed. TK led Asia stocks jumping from the bell and has risen steadily all morning to a high of +267 on domestic demand, techs, pharma and food all gaining. News that Trump and KJ Un may meet shortly helped sentiment. The Nikkei down just 0.55% ytd. HK is down 22 and heading towards 'Bear' territory with Blue Chip Tencent down 1% as news of online poker games will be shutdown by China in 2 weeks. Macaus casino stocks fell in sympathy. HK losing 11% ytd. SH bounced from a 22 loss to 8 up (a mid session high) with no rea

No read across from Gkp (+9) good results.

I shan't be buying at this price for sure as eggs be eggs it'll go agin me. So guys wiv me looking on its certain to be a blue start!

A mixed but mainly lower start to the week, SH & HK lower, SK. & TK up. HK & the mainland fell on Trump urging Apple to return its manufacturing operations to the US. The region has many key suppliers to Apple especially China & in Taiwan the TAIEX is off 120 (1.11%). HK hit a new 13 month low currently down 243 led by Casinos and property developers. Tencent a HK heavyweight fell on buy back news it's first for 4 years. SH was quiet down c.1% in morning trade with China/US trade worries ever present and having a drag on the two main indexes as were Apple suppliers. TK is currently 60 to the good helped by electronics snaps a 6 day losing streak of 516 points. Twenty of the Nikkei Topic subindexes were up helped up by a rise in Treasury yields after the good US jobs report. Late on TK slipped back 30 just up on the day. In S.Korea Samsung was up 1% but Apple suppliers Foxconn fell c.2% and Largan slumped 5% overall the mrkt had gained 6 by mid afternoon. The nos: Oil 77.36. Gold $ 1194. £$ 1.291. £€ 1.128. Coin $ 6302. Vix 14.95. FF +24 & DF +50. Morning all.

Here we are 2018 and our Sun night tv fodder consists of an out of date 1870 dressed up drama with a reject from Dickens to titillate our senses... er I don't think so. Did you read Vanity Fair at school? I did...1 page and binned it. These costume dramas are a staple of the BBC backstage dept keeping them in gainful employment and boring the **ts off most of us. Ok im an old grumpy git who swerved that Upstairs & Downtown thing from back-a'ways. I'm still,....just involved in that suspend your belief...bare arsed Bodyguard soap... but looking to the Aussie 'No Activity' on late BBC 2 to keep me awake on Sunday night's.

H...remember in 2008 they said.. " this time it's different"......I'm following my gut feeling more on the 'good times' can't last forever basis... than any of the economic 'talikng heads' words of wisdom. We shall see...

So we've just celebrated the longest bull mrkt on record...er that's before the last one that was scuppered by Lehman Bros filing for bankruptcy some 10 years ago this coming Friday. In reality the writing was on the wall a year before starting in the California sub prime mortgage / housing market " wanna buy a house, no deposit required?" which quickly spread to the Banking sector and the credit crunch resulting in the Northern Rock debacle. Boom and bust was back in fashion as cheap money got too cheap and new financial instruments promised high returns with little risk as assets always match liabilities assuming the assets are worth the stated amount of course and surprise surprise they were not as by then these collateralized mortgages flipped dozens of times became impossible to value and who owned to who! George Wwwya famously said "this sucker could go down". It damn near did, RBS was on the brink saved only by bail outs along with Lloyds, TSB & HBOS to the tune of c.£40 bn thanx to Joe Public. As often is the case those at the top swanned around as if nothing had happened assured that Sid and his mates would pick up the tab and they certainly did as Govt imposed years of austerity while flooding the system with electronic money (QE) to stave off a depression did the job. That's coming to an end as most assuredly is the longest bull mrkt on record which has sustained the largest global indebtedness on record. The reckonning is upon us. This time round my guess EMrkts will be the catalyst for a 2008 style Banking crisis only much much worse should rates head anywhere near 4%+. Think il'l go and gave a drink and pray we muddle through whatever is coming down the road.

No argument there H. But look where we are! As I said the mrkt does not agree with our view, well as far as G and Kurd o...lies. Perhaps we went up too fast and our now paying the price. At least the short sellers are happy. Remember the '87 crash, big oil was hammered like everything else and came at a time of the Govt flogging off some of its shares in BP at 330 to 'Sid'. From memory on 'Black Monday' BP fell 15% well below the public offer price and the BOE had to step in to support the Co to the tune of £2bn to prevent the Kuwait Inv Office acquiring a controlling stake, I think they snapped up a 12% holding much to Lawsons embarrassment. Should another '87 type panic occur no oil Co or any other will be spared in the ensuing carnage. If you wern't invested in '87 trust me you dont ever want to see that again and in them days you had to phone your broker who then had to send a 'blue button' on to the trading floor to do the deal which in normal quiet days might take 5 or 10 min. Unfortunately due to the chaotic conditions nobody was answering the phones and thousands of pis were locked out from selling. I managed to contact my broker at 9.00pm. Think what might have happened had we all had mobs back then? The mrkt fell c.25% in 3 days and took over 600 days to recover to pre crash levels in my case nigh on 10 years to recover cash losses. My advice....make sure your at the front of the queue as I doubt the internet would manage the voluminous amount of business and should a crash start in N.Y. remember we will be last in the queue to get out. On that bright note I'll bid ya 'all a very good morning.

I think the outlook through to year end offers little in the way to ease pis anxieties. Trump is now threatening a new round of tariffs on China just as the Fed might be tightening rates to head off inflation by pushing rates up to as high as c.4%... a disaster for Emerging Markts whose debts have been artificially held down by Bank of Japan with a likely spike in US Bond yields. Closer to home Italy's enormous public debt is lurching out of control as $ borrowing costs are ratcheted upwards, leaving the Govt in a precarious position as European Central Bank stops QE and liquidity dries up. Add in China's GDP slowing dramatically to perhaps a low of 5% in '19 and world demand slowing the background for the world economy is hardly rosey. This is not a healthy scenario for equities as billions have already been pulled from Euro funds this year, China cracking down on excess credit & Brexit worries plus int rate rises pushing the unloved UK market down 5% ytd will potentially cause havoc in equity mrkts. Whether mrkts take any notice of these factors we shall see but i dont want any of my remaing cash at risk this and next year. Those of you with serious money invested have some very difficult calls to make in the next couple of months. Your main concern should be the protection of your capital so as to be cash rich should thunder and lightening strike.

A quick look at wk 36 nos the ftse fell 154, All down 84, the 250 off 479 all (c.-2%) and S/c added 12 with Aim little changed. G and Gkp fell 23 & 16 both off 9% respectively and ytd nos have been hammered now just +107% & +125% both v.good compared to hundreds of other London stocks. Oil was down 0.70% (ytd +17%). The 350 OG had a poor week losing 2.3%, little changed ytd. Stateside the wks nos saw the Dow off just 0.20% the SxP down 1% and Nsdq fell 2.6% but still 14.5% up ytd. The R2000 the small cap mrkt is c12% up ytd. A management shake up at Tesla had little effect the shares down another $17 on Fri to $263 a drop of c.13%. The 52wk trading range is $244-$389. Asia had a poor wk stocks across the region fell, the Nikkei down 2.5%, HK lost 3.3% and SH off c.1%. Ytd all are down. Other ytd nos of note: Gold -9.6% £$ -4.5%, Coin off 55% and Vix up 35%. Vix, 52wk trading range is 9-50, 9 being madly bullish! Have a good wk/end all.

You know when your barking up the wrong tree....when the mrkt strongly disagrees with you. The long term game is a mugs game. Regretably its taken me years to find this out and I'm now of the opinion that day trading is the only way especially cutting your losses immediately. Obvious draw backs are you have to over trade to seek small turns and that's not really for me. If you hold in the old fashioned way best stick your certs in the bottom drawer and forget about them....if you can and let's face it that's impossible for 99% of us. So what other options have You? Other than going down the CFD route and other highly leveraged risky options i cant see any. You could of course invest in a fund but hell thats worse than watching paint dry or buying Voda. Most of us like a bit of risk hoping for above average returns accepting that losses could be greater than any potential gain. Of course we assume the playing field is level and others are playing by the same rules, giving us at least a 50:50 chance which to be fair we more than had when G hit 292 on most of us assuming was a long overdue re-rate. Long termers were quite happy to hold at that level.That was short lived giving ample scope for profit taking and shorters to jump on the back of the aforementioned and drive the sp lower accommodated by the barrow boys and algo / machine trading. Regardless of the fundamentals stock players these days seek momentum plays and are not bothered whether a Co sells oil or jelly babies, pays a div or not..... just does it move and can i make a turn? As abhorrent this is to me one has to get with the programme or suffer the consequences as I most surely did holding from 666 before i threw in the towel at 200ish and then 130ish. Why tf did i hold on? That cost me a lot more than i could afford to lose. Fair enough i was well aware of the risks, though in my defence i thought G was undervalued even back then...jeez that was really really stupid of me. I'm now being really really sensible, no stocks on hold, no intention of ever doing so again, never having the feeling I've been suckered...again and spending more time in my local talking rubbish.

The only support level I know is increased production, improving revenues, significant upside in cash flows & a big boost to the bottom line. If that ain't enough for holders we are in the wrong game. Looking to buy again on Monday hell...who'd wanna be holding these over the wk/end?

Yea a long term hold ( 2 hrs) going tits up...took the hit a new loss making strategy of mine....oh well I'll try again...

F this!! Im out..