Member Info for JohnLewis79

No account for Miran & BB gas so add c.230 pps.

My nos differ somewhat from prev but essentially its : Mrkt Cap + debt - cash ÷ by 279 = EV and pps.

Gkp 248 Gnl 241 By some accounts.

1yr ago today. G 118p Oil $52.72. 2yr ago today. G 104p Oil $50.88. 3yr ago today. G 314p Oil $46.86. Just as a matter of interest.

Brent avp August $72.53 ($51.70) $.1.72 lower than July.

I've said my piece and you have said yours, thats fine by me after all free expression 'n all that. Good luck with Idea.

London 100 traded in a narrow range (7280-7350) closing 31 better as Wall St took off again. The 250 finished 42 up (20500) and sterling unchanged on UK inflation hitting 2.7% in August as shop prices, higher wages & transport costs fed through the system. No doubt the BOE will be considering their next move on rates. A quiet day for shares & Co news. Kingfisher (247) was a big loser falling 6% on poor H1 nos (-15%) followed by Tesco's JACKS their new local store getting a cool reception, not surprised with a name like that and SBRY off 1%. Dixon's led the 250 board adding 3% (168) and ytd the most representative sector of UK stocks is 1% lower the 100 (4.6%) down. US stocks continued the surge upwards at the bell the Dow jumped 150 near record high (26617) as investors shrugged off Trump & China. Yields on US 10YT/Bill hit 3.08% a 4 month high. By mid-day the Dow was within 177 points of the record and Vix the much watched ('Fear Index') had fallen 7/8 past sessions to a yr low of 11.86 well below its trend av of c 15. US investors are loading up on domestic stocks (21% overweight) according to a BOA Merill Lynch survey of US fund managers, as the US was voted the favourite equity region for the 2nd month. The picture for US shares remains rosy in the medium term while those polled said they expected global growth to decelerate over the next 12 months which was the worst outlook since Dec 2011. Most of those polled (55%) expressed concerns of the valuation to the FAANGS+BAT (5 major US techs & 3 Chinese Cos) as these were the most dealt in the 'Long' FAANGs and in the 'Short' end the E/Mrkts as being overvalued. Some say that US Co earnings are ahead of stock mrkt values and the 500 has some catching up to do. The Dow ended 212 short of the record...up 159, the S&P +4 & Nsdq fell 6. On the share front Tesla had a better day as 'dip' buyers pushed the shares $14 better to $299. Big Board risers were GS & JPMC both 3%, Exxon and Chevron up c.1%, Caterpillar 2.5%. Going lower Amazon off 3%, Nike & Microsoft both c.2% and Verizon top faller c.3%. Among the tiddlers, Tilray a marijuana stock was halted many times during the day almost doubling in price as the FDA agreed the import of the drug to test its effectiveness in treating a disorder that effects millions of Americans. Tilray has surged 600% this month. Nothing of note in Asia where stocks are mostly u/c but heading lower at mid session. The nos: Oil $79.67. Gold $1206. £$ 1.315. £€ 1.112. Coin $ 6384. Vix 11.75. FF +8, DF +30 and MSC1 +1 (522). Morning all.

Hydrogen.... I wish I knew, one could be flippant and say "there's nowt so queer as folk" but short term Gkp is the one punters have latched on to and it could be as simple as....I can make money in Gkp not so sure about G. Your guess is as good/bad as mine. There is not an awful lot to choose between the two imo so one may feel more secure trading one over the other? Instance I have held/traded G but would not consider Gkp...home turf and all that?

Intangibles (the non physical stuff) accounts for $1282bn ($890m after amor and impairments) consist mainly of exploration & evaluation of Gs PSC gas assets, Miran & Bina Bawi......combined value $858m and are difficult to evaluate. The producing stuff, Tawke, TT & Pesh go on the tangibles. However the intangibles play a very important part on the asset side of the balance sheet valued at c.233p

Perhaps there just aint a lot of money about for pis to commit for more than 5 mins...(u get what I mean), hence pis chancing their arm on on getting the right side of any rise to make a few quid. As someone said a hold is a punt gone wrong. I think your right H unless your a punter and can absorb losses these % swings may be too hairy for many and lots on here have been seriously damaged not to mention Gkp and the 100:1 dilution. Investing seemed so much simpler years ago, you bought and held for years, collecting dividends and not bothering about daily moves of a couple of pence. He'll did I know about shorting in the 70's or CFDs or other exotic trading strategies?.. def not. If that's progress for you something has gone seriously wrong. I know buying/selling has got a lot cheaper but that aint everything by a long chalk. Still them be the rules and we play along knowing full well that the umpire might be looking the other way. Caveat emptor indeed!

Fair comment riv...

Inevitable profit taking after the 24 sp rise last couple of sessions. Surprised it wasn't more. Gut feeling its going much lower perhaps another 20 from here as little has changed on the fundamentals. But as we well know sentiment & over confident investors trump those minor considerations so the floor might be 160. You may accuse me of talking my own book having missed the jump from 140 and I'd sort of agree with that however I said Idea was up with events and I stand by that.

Psssst...Wanna buy a $ for 25c?

The second flat day for stocks the 100 rarely trading outside a 40 range all day. Trade (China intends to levy 5-10% taxes on 5000 US products) and Brexit cont to fixate investors and put a brake on investors strategies going into Q4. The 100 fell just 2 (7300) / 5% down ytd with little movement either way for the other indexes the 250 added 84 (20458), Aim off 6. Miners recovered lost ground, Glencore up 2.5%, Antofag +1.4% & Rio Tinto, Fresnillo both gaining. Others catching the eye were Ocado up 3.5% (11% increase in sales) and B.Gas owner Centrica c.3% though ITV lost 7% on talk of acquiring Endemol a TV production Co and Starbucks paying a measely 3% tax. At London's close the Dow was motoring up 140. In N.Y the market was reversing Mondays declines led from the bell by a strong tech sector & consumer stocks. Traders have become weary of the constant drip feed of Trump trade tweets which never seem to be actually activated rather like Brexit souring investors mood in London. China has retaliated rubber stamping a range of tariffs on US goods due to take effect next week, more in the pipeline should Trump add further tariffs. While Trump is sure he will win any trade war and is in no mood to make concessions or concede to the Chinese this is only going to escalate. Time will tell how far their war will envelope the rest of the world and for how long. Some analysts are predicting on a worst case...20 years. US tech Co's who source many components from China / Taiwan face increased costs and supply delays Inc investment being delayed while uncertainty continues. Tesla once again in the firing line as the Justic Dept begins investigating Musks comments that may have misled investors by manipulating the sp. Tesla has lost 10 top line Managers this year. Shares fell $10 to $285. Oracle off a touch at $49 but the gainer of the day was Viking Therapeutics jumping 87% on successful trial results. Nike ($85) & Boeing ($363) topped the Big Board. The Dow closed up 189 (26247), S&P +16 & Nsdq added 60 (7956). Asia continues to fire upwards after turning higher late Monday stocks across the region opened strongly. TK up 356 mid session on back of life insurers reacting to the 3.05% on 10yt/bills and Y/$ gains. Broad gains were seen across all sectors, the Nikkei is at a 7 yr high and now 4% up ytd. HK 326 up on local issues climbed on back off Mondays 200 points rise. Tencent to the fore along with energy and properties while SH gained 27 after 40 late Mon, shrugging off the retaliatory tariffs on US goods. The nos: Oil $78.98. Gold$ 1200. £$ 1.315. £€ 1.126. Coin $6335. Vix 12.29. FF +14, DF +15. Morning all.

$79.00

5x as many traded over on Gkp atm...explains a lot!

They must have struck gold, silver, bauxite and any other ...ite! There you go def the local Kurd 'belle of the ball' while G unloved sulks in the corner looking for a partner. Mind you if this goes on any longer Gkp will be looking for bigger fish to fry than the mackerel sized G. Ever get the feeling G is being played?

One does not often see a merger of equals. Usually one Co is the acquirer. In a MOE holders would surrender their shares and receive new ones in a new formed Co at the same % so Gkp would receive c.18% less than G in a share swap. Sometimes a cash payment is involved. Of course the main drawbacks are clash of cultures, management fifedoms, redundancies inc the workforce and HO operations. No doubt the KRG would have to bless the marriage. Few takebovers in the oil sector are hostile, no real need to be. That's why it's favourite for the stronger Co to take out the weaker one to smooth the integration. With G & Gkp so closely valued which management will come out on top as both have legit claims to be top dog. That to me suggests one will acquire the other....but who will bend over?

Morning sparky. One assumes the G board are examining all options to increase shareholder value which lets face it ain't working if your an sp spectator! At least we recognise the progress made in the financials which the mrkt ignore for reasons best known to themselves. Perhaps they have wind of some damaging news...who knows but I very much doubt it. Whatever the bod need to get a hurry up because as you point out G could fall prey to low ball offer though I think that's an outside bet atm. Big Oil are not interested they prefer to push paper not push earnings so were back to the sub $1bn o...lies who could potentially be interested. Gkp the obvious candidate, I rule out DNO for currency reasons. Whatever if the mrkt wont re-rate G and they don't seem inclined to do so the bod must act. If they cannot find a suitor then go the LBO route, there would be no problem in leveraging a couple of $bn though they would likely want to steal the Co off holders!

Go back to early June G's E/V was £1.35bn (484 sp) not sure about those nos... granted the sp was some 60 higher than current even so the EV was much higher than the sp back then (282). Fast forward to present G's current EV has fallen to... either c.£674m (241p) or by my reckoning £767m or 274p. I may have accounted for debt & cash differently. No account is made for gas so put your own no in...say a conservative 200 for a farm out. Difficult to see 500 in the medium term. Anyways the EV is at a small premium to mrkt cap. Incidentally I see Gkp's EV is c.£579m or 253 pps not worked out by me..... but at a discount to mrkt cap.