Member Info for JohnLewis79

Absolutely my thoughts as well.

No use beating yourself up JFT...it is what it is...trite comment I know but as you well know G and others I know of do not conform to ones expected analysis or direction of travel. Buying G has been pretty much a disaster from the last high a 60 fall or c.20% on nothing material to effect the so, or rather nothing we are aware of! MM games have a lot to do with this stock for reasons only known to them suffice to say they move the sp to their benefit and not ours. Like you I have been tempted to buy back at 260,245 & now but will resist the urge despite the update which should prove very positive. In the past these have proved a buyers trap so I place little confidence in the sp performance sustaining any increase. Moreover I'm not buying the $100 Oil talk. I suspect other countries Opec and non Opec will take up the Iranian & Venezuela slack and US shale could rebound next year. Add to that growth slowing in China and a poss slow down in US will $80+ be sustainable? My guess is not. Oil is up c.16% Aug and ytd up c.30% and 50%+ over 12 months and going back, treble the $28 low in 1/2016. If I was a betting man I'd plump for $60 sometime in 2019 and not the $90-100. As ever wtfdik!

Oil $83.37 (-1%). Gold $ 1201 (-$5) £$ 1.311. £€ 1.149. FF -7. DF +36. All eyes will be on the US Bond mrkts when they return for business tomorrow because rising bond yields equate to higher borrowing costs for companies and makes risk free assets (US t/bills) more attractive. Stocks usually post better returns when bond yields are falling. Asia is lower as Q4 starts, TK is closed with HK c 1% down and SH off c 2.5%. Morning all.

If you want your brain scrambled check out MickeyT21 over on Gkp for the inside info on 'barrow boy' trading strategies. Not recommended for wk/end reading!

Ftse fell 4/5 days this week losing 190 points, the 250 off 100 on Brexit uncertainties and global debt concerns. Sterling gained ($1.311) hitting the big overseas earners and a poor start in NY didn"t help. Ytd the 100 is c.5% down, the 250 off c.4% & the All Share c.5% lower. US stocks fell on Friday the Dow closing down 180 after a near 350 fall mid session. The S&P and Nsdq were down 16 & 91. On the wk the 30 was flat, the Nsdq off 3% & S&P down 1%. A poor jobs report (missing expectations) and treasury yields at a 7 year high took the shine of equities. With risk free Govt debt at 3.227% the attractions in riskier assets tend to fall and as yields go up Bond prices decline. The US Bond mrkt will be closed on Monday for a well earned breather. Talk that the US mrkt has 'topped out' is gathering pace. SOTM Tesla once again hit the headlines as the shorts are c.$940m paper profits to the good since the SEC settlement. Musk called the shorts "value destroyers and should be banned". Tesla fell nearly $20 to $262 on Friday. Only something like 4% of the total NYSE listed Companies shares outstanding are sold 'short' that's c.16.7bn out of 453bn. The age old argument that selling short is somehow un-American, its like hoping to see people fail will cont for evermore. Shorts rightly say they seek to profit from over valued companies and play a part in sp transparency. Whatever your view the practice of short selling has zero chance of being banned. Logically if you can profit on the way up....why not on the way down? One is in the mrkts to make money, not for the good of your health or the sensibilities of other investors. Asia was lower Friday on tech selling following the 2 day sell off on the Nsdq the Nikkei closing down 340 over the wk. HK lost 1381 & SH 24. Ytd Japan is up c.4.5%, HK down 11% & SH off 15%. Morning all.

JFT....logic and Genel are not bed-fellowes!

Fair comment bottomzup. I do look at charts double bottoms etc But nowhere as in depth as you. So far my way has worked for me over many years but certainly i could improve my basic knowledge of investing. Unfortunately its too late in the day for me.

Mrkts have yet to factor in possibly 4 more rate rises through to YE 2019, so says..... Fitch ratings. They have warned that global bond mrkts face a rude shock as the Fed steps on the brakes to avert overheating. Central Banks are already tightening liquidity to the mrkts. The 4 major world banks have together injected an av of $1.2 trillion (QE) each year into the system since 2009. It peaked at $1.7 tr in 2016 and has been dropping rapidly since and will fall to minus $500bn by 2019 as banks halt bond purchases. Christine Lagarde M.D. of the IMF said surging yields were a wake up call to over leveraged countries and companies. She said global debt had risen 60% to $182tr since the '08 financial crisis. The climate of the global economy is changing and the era of easy and cheap money across the world is over. Should US 10 YR treasuries (the benchmark price of global money) hit 3.5% thats going to be a real problem for stock mrkts and emerging mrkts especially Turkey, Argentina, India & S.Africa that are all $ debtors.

3 Directors exercised at 600k shares each at 152p awarded under the LTIP (2017).

Outside of Kurd o...lies vols look healthy. G 410k Gkp 720k RDSB 5.1m Ophir 6.6m PMO 9.8m TUL 20.4m BP 49.7m

WTI fell $2 yesterday to $74.22 triggered by risk aversion which was seen as a contributory factor, as the US 10 yr t/Bill jumped 4 basis to 3.20%.

Musk is back on the front pages after settling his $20m fine imposed by the SEC for false & misleading statements. In a tweet he called the SEC the.. "Short sellers enrichment commission" which was doing "incredible work". Tesla stock was hammered down to $282 and cont falling after hours.

Oil $ 84.90. Gold $1203. £$ 1.301. £€ 1.131. FF +19 (57% long). DF +46 (76% short). Asia lower on Nsdq sell off. China closed.

Good luck with the squiggly line stuff H. I'm sure it's useful for the day traders but of no value to long term holders whose main aim is to smooth out the swings in share prices. I like you understand the practice but not the theory preferring to disect balance sheets than candlesticks! I find interpreting what those nos say difficult enough without any other data clouding my view of a Co.

Well down this morning on poor outlook for US mrkts, Dow called 90 lower on China news of hacking into servers of some US companies.(Amazon, Apple). One would think October would be the worst month for the mrkts but it aint, it has averaged a 0.78% positive return for many years, rising 42× & falling 26x. Last year the ftse gained 54 points in October (0.71%) -30 in '16, +290 in '15 so were probably looking at a down month as we're off 80 to date. Back in the day I had a pal who would not trade/buy shares in Oct under any circumstances. He said it was a good decision. Can't remember the period but it would most likely have been after the '87 crash to mid 2000s. He has been out of the mrkt since then & trades commodities.

Not sure about being forced down buys 2:1 v sells if you believe the nos. MM shenanigans are more likely the culprit imo and how their book is positioned. I'm no expert on MM dealings, for a fuller explanation MickeyT21 over on Gkp has posted a comprehensive guide on this subject. Worth a read.

Hydraides you know you can't win at this game, high oil prices = increased profits = lower share prices....c'mon that's how it works

Iraq vote uncovered. The polling Co secretly created material for social media as part of a plan which included gathering info about voters and creating content for Facebook that promoted independence for Kurdistan. The material created by YouGov included videos that played on fears about security, criticised the Iraqi military and praised the Pershmerga. It also told voters that the referendum would give Kirkuk the opportunity to chose between being a small part of a failed country or a great city in a new secure homeland. YouGov employees who worked on the campaign were required to sign non-disclosure agreements and forbidden from connecting YouGov with content published on Fbk. A whistle blower said the Fbk page was an example of 'astroturfing' a term used to describe a PR campaign that is presented as being disconnected from the organisation funding it. YouGov declined to comment about its clients or operations in Iraq. YouGov's work on the Kurdish campaign raises questions for N.Zahawi one of the company's founders and a current parliamentary under Secretary. Zahawi was CEO of YouGov until Feb 2010 at the time YouGov was working on the campaign. He still owns shares in You Gov and is a director of Zahawi & Zahawi which counts You Gov among its clients. These latest revelations about YouGovs attempt to influence voting in Iraq comes in the wake of the Cambridge Analytica scandal where voters were targeted with Fbk content in an effort to influence opinions ahead of the 2016 US election. Other polling companies have been involved in similar schemes the (Nigerian presidential election) and came under fire from MPs in the UK after selling poll results to hedge funds ahead of the Brexit ref result allowing them to profit by betting against the pound. YouGov boasts "it has the largest daily updated record of people's habits and opinions in existence. Mr Zahawi declined to comment.

$86.17. Gold $1196. FF-20. DF -60 £$ 1.2931. £€ 1.127.

Share prices take a random walk guys...in my expierence mostways! Deciphering up/down moves should be based on a Co's economic progress but as we know there are too many variables to be exact in ones view. G has faced many headwinds these last 3 years most of which are behind us now and since present management took over the Co numbers, OP & good housekeeping have all improved markedly. While we see the sp as undervalued its risen some 140 ytd but well short of the consensus 400-500 fair value of most pis. While the EV number tracks the mrkt value and gas remains well just gas.. that's the no we will have to live with I'm afraid. With oil averaging $60 in Q4 2017 our bottom line will be much improved so any no near 300 by year end (21% away) will be some result! Morning all.