Member Info for JohnLewis79

Know what u mean comv...I'm going more bald than grey but I put that down to sleepless nights fretting about the 'blood' thing!

I read that the 'tax on the poor' (National Lottery) is being revamped to halt the slide in sales. Prizes will be increased across the prize structure, ie £100 for 3 numbers. Don't make it any more attractive to me as the odds are massively against you. So £100 or £1000 for 3 nos its still 97-1 against. For £2 you may think that a throaway punt as it invariably will be. A straw poll in my pub last year showed only 3/20 we're still punting the lotto and averaged £16 a week. One guy had won twice (3 nos) in 2 years. Here's the odds: 6 nos: 45.000.000 -1 5 nos: 144k-1 4 nos: 218k-1 3 nos: 97-1 2 nos: 10-1 Any G men still playing?

Blimey Exeter has an airport! Where you off to H?

Idea c.50% up ytd paints a very different picture to the two lead tech stocks. Both in turmoil...over recent acquisitions (Mfocus) and increased comp etc.., (Sage). EV & Mrkt Cap are similar at c.£310m which suggests to me the stock is up with events. I'm looking to get back in but at a price well south of here. Most likely won't see that but I aint paying 152+ As the next update is not till Nov progress might slow down so I can wait and see whether 150 is the top of the range and which way the stock breaks from here.

Sterling took centre stage yesterday as the Brexit and £$ fallout continues. Barniers criticism of Mays Chequers plans reported in a German newspaper gave traders the chance to sell the pound which bought $1.288. He said Britain leaving the Eurpoean mrkt could spell the end of the single mrkt & the Euro project. His conciliatory comments of last week soon forgotten. A deal looks a long way away not helped by the Govts disarray. This boosted the big 100 overseas earners the 100 adding 72 (7505) and regaining 1% of the 4% fall in August, All gained 33 the 250 just 7 and Aim up 3 to 1107 leads the pack up 5% ytd into Q3. In further Brexit news May ruled out a re-run of the referendum as polls suggest a similar result. As Parliament returns today May faces challenges to her Chequers paper, splits in the party and rebel back-benchers urging Boris to tilt at the Premiership.... talk of a 'no confidence' vote gathers momentum. On the mrkt, Oils were to the fore, BP & Shell responding to the 10% rise in OP these last few weeks. Utilities were under the cosh after submitting plans to Ofwat aimed at reducing leakages, improving services, returning cash to users and cutting prices were deemed too modest. Dechra Chem fell 21% after a small rise in profits which failed to meet forecasts and the new CEO at WPP was greeted by a fall in the share price. Techs had a better day Sage (+6), Mfocus (+27) and the TM 100 added 0.05%, ytd 1% up. Dull trading in the Far East, no lead from the 'Street' so little movement in stocks in morning trade, most mrkts down c.1-40 points. The main focus is on the China/Africa trade talks in Beijing where 50 African leaders seek further investment from China. Currently the trade is worth c.$170 bn and increasing at a 14% clip. The nos: Oil $78.05. Gold $1199 (9% down ytd) and 14% over 5 years! £$ 1.286. £€ 1.108. Vix 12.8. Coin $7272. FF to open 11 lower the Dow off 24 following yesterdays Labour Day holiday. Morning all.

Oil up $78.12, ftse storming up 61 Gkp +2...G flat...ok whats new, all's well methinks if your a bully Boy?

Boy that one was a close shave for me swerving buying some at the last minute. Today at Southwark Crown Court Osman Shahenshah former CEO of collapsed o...lie Afren faces fraud and money laundering charges along with Shahid Ullah former Chief operating officer.

On Friday Gs E/V was $970m. As you know E/V includes debt, cash and equivalents and is what the mrkt thinks the Co is worth. In effect the theoretical take over value. At $1.29 G's E/V is £751m (269p) compared to Fridays mrkt cap of £686m so not that far apart. Yet with a NAV of c.448 the figures confuse. At first glance you would assume G to be undervalued and you have found a bargain however its never quite as simple as that owing to the accounting value as presented on the balance sheet, these two nos (mrkt cap & Book value) can differ widely many times. Your currently paying 246 to own a part of say 448 which looks great. So why the big discrepancy? One reason is that the mrkt might not believe the Co is worth the stated book value. You have to decide whether G is a steal or fairly valued as an investment. I'm sitting on the fence on this one As Genels gas assets could skewer all those nos.....so we wait and wonder.

Once again trade-war fears dominated early action in Far Eastern mrkts. Sentiment took a knock as US/Canada talks missed Trumps Fri deadline for an agreement and the escalating tariffs Trump has imposed on China led investors to dump stocks first thing. Late morning in TK the Nikkei was down 120, steel, energy & Techs among the laggards. Renesa Electrical was off 6% as it neared completion of buying California's Device Technology for $6bn pulled big board stocks Sony & Toyota down c.1%. The Nikkei remains u/c ytd. Shanghai near mid session is off 26 its 4th straight decline. The SHCOMP & SHENZEN both posting 1% declines mostly on local factors and cont trade concerns. In HK the Hang Seng is down 280 dragged lower by blue chip Tencent (-c.3%) on Chinas crackdown on online games. Property and Internationals doing well, techs & chems poorly. S.Korea fell from the opening as sellers dumped Samsung & Posco both c.2%, the Kopsi down 6% ytd. Others in the region were little changed, N.Z (-0.05%) & Australia u/c. Singapore, Malaysia & Taiwan all off c.0.05% complete the Asia/Pacific picture. The nos: Oil $77.37. Gold $ 1199 £$1.292. £€ 1.114. Coin $7279. FF +5 & DF u/c. Vix 12.86. G opens wk 36 at 246 hoping for a better Sept performance than last month when G fell 24. Morning all.

According to the IMF this mrkt has ballooned from an annual $796bn in 2008 (Lehman collapse) to $1234bn in 2018. The time bomb is ticking as the 10yr anniversary of Lehman Bros collapse is upon us. Investors have piled into risky high yield loans to obtain lucrative high yield returns while offering weaker covenants to borrow more and more even while passing financial tests to satisfy lending requirements. These Cov-lite loans have ballooned to over £770bn in the US this year, £38bn in the UK and growing at 4%. Corporate titans are gorging themselves on chaep money via the debt/loan leverage mrkt. Some say the mrkt has been asleep at the wheel and is only now beginning to wake up as the quality of covenants sink to a low leaving invstrs with much weaker protection which will inevitably lead to defaults, impacting the real economy. The desire for higher returns shield invstrs from Fed Res hikes and to date the mrkt is comfortable with these low grade loans as these loan Cos are exempt from having any 'skin in the game' Warnings of impending trouble are low because Cov-lite covenants are so low they are triggered too late and zombie companies stagger on without intervention from lenders. Of course this time it's different... borrowers ain't making the same mistakes of a decade ago...are they? Just another 'red flag' investors should be aware of.

Tiger...congrats on your victory.. You and boyobach seem to be chart analystical fans for stock buying. Never bloody worked for me! I sure as he'll don't believe the squiggly line theorists as to future share price movements, it's pure gobbledy-gook imo. Whatever, you use what works.....I will say the expression 'the trend is your friend'...usually turns out to be my enemy by the time I climb on board...though a steeply rising sp line is great if your in at the start. For instance like those G buyers at sub 80. I'll have to ask bunks "was it the line drop or 'cheap as chip's" 'buy one get one free' that seemed such a bargain? I think I know the answer. I must have bought into the rising line at 125 ish so perhaps I'm a serialine deny..er?

Oil closed a tad down at $77.45 or $77.71 take your choice. Anyways a 2% gain on wk and 21.4% up ytd. On a 1 year basis oil is up c.46%. Gkp is up 149% ytd & G up 128%. Looking on a 1 year basis Gkp is 120% better v G just 56% better. On last wk nos G was off c.2% and Gkp down c.1%. Still the height of summer so I'd expect G to improve substantially when the city is back to work and houses are doing their end of year nos.

I wonder whether Sage troubles are having a beneficial effect on Idea?

World stock mrkts were lower on Friday, just 2 were in the plus column (Aim & Nsdq). Nsdq posted gains thanks to a strong performance from Apple up 1.2% as Warren Buffet adds to his holding of Apple stock. He had pre recent purchases some 167m or (3%) of Apple his second bigest holding in $ terms then, by now Apple is his most valuable holding I should imagine. On the week the Dow rose 0.7%, the 500 +3% & Nsdq gained 2%. Over the month there were better % gains and ytd the Dow is ahead c.5%. *** Earlier Brexit worries returned to haunt London stocks the 100 closing sharply lower on Fri (-87) & to a 4 month low of 7432. August, unlike the US mrkt has been poor month for London the 100 off 4.25% & the 250 dropping 1% while Aim put on 1%. Whitbread was a bright spot on Friday climbing 14% on Coca Cola buying its Costa Coffee chain for $5.1bn. Sage group which has been under the cosh all year fell 50 to 591 after the CEO departed. Sage has sagged 25% this year, bad as that is the other tech heavy Microfocus is way, way, worse down 48%. *** S.Korea the only Far Eastern mrkt to be blue on Friday posted the last 10/11 plus sessions and gained 1.2% in August. TK finished ahead in Aug climbing 1.4% (0.5% up ytd) but over in HK the Hang Seng dropped 2.4% & 7% down ytd. SH was by far the worst performer reacting to Trumps $250bn of tariffs getting underway tanked 5% in August and still 18% lower ytd. While the junior Shenzen slipped 8% it's 5th straight monthly decline. Have a good wk/end all.

Now now.... bunks...everyone's looking for a bargain....even you!...oh F. me, you already got yours you greedy git, heh heh heh!

Being Fri and all...I'm gonna wait. Lots can happen on the geo/pol/ Chump front over the wk/end to skewer invstr sentiment. Prudence says"....

Whatever one thinks those lucky/ clever boogers in sub 100/90/80 are doing very well so will be surprised at the constant...ish carping from those in at a much higher price. Fair 'doos' for sure, for how many shares are showing 100% gains this year and are you in them? Probably, no most certainly not! Whatever the banter is good and despite the topsy turvy G share price we remain positive and unfailingly polite to all posters.

Hi comeonvog how's tricks?...looking at 235 ish...but knowing my need for a bit of action will prob take 240 for an/ in out...we'll have to see how it goes. JFT "G" has become a spiv trading vehicle for the most part and it aint the only one! Unfortunately mrkts are driven by short traders and nano second trading which leaves fundamental investors in the "stick it in the bottom drawer" and forget it....or "tough luck" cos were making money suckers! I guess we should all become day traders and long termers which in Gs case is very very long term. Gkp suffering today also so were not alone! No consolation i know. I'm in at 240 ish, so no chance today methinks.

Fer crying out loud...I'll be back in if it goes any lower...

July saw an av price of $74.25 & Aug will be c.$73.95 making an av $72.50 ytd. That's an increase of 25% over the av price last year.