Member Info for JohnLewis79

Should have made clear the nos relate to 2017 year end.

Bloody he'll finger on the sell button at 252 couldn't make myself do it....lol!

Ophir mrkt cap is at a severe disconnect to shareholder funds of c.£1.1bn. That's a huge margin of safety even if there maybe gremlins lurking in the woodwork. Operating in reasonably stable regions of the world compared to K/land you'd a thunk this would be over 50-60 easily.

Keep your eyes on Ophir now at historic low 38.35 and mrkt cap £271m. For sure they have problems (Fortuna & Tanzania) but what oily don't? Talk about A sitting duck!. We were sub 60 and sfa happened.

A subject most of us face and rarely talk about. Here are some sobering debt nos that effect all investors in stocks. Emerging Mrkt $ denominated debt nos are staggering, currently at c.$2 trillion which is more than 3x higher than the last financial crisis. Then consider servicing this debt pile at say 4% its easy to see why they are struggling now. According to the International Bank of Settlements debt in 2000 was c.$0.2tn, twenty years later its now $2.0tn and rising. This problem is not confined to EM, if you include world wide debt then the global risk is phenominal if stocks start falling. Rising rates, rising repayments and lower valuations could lead to defaults which will be very unpleasant. We might be seeing early moves into low valuation/low to no debt/ No international trade type stocks. So best be prepared if the **** hits the fan. To this effect im now only in G and the blood thing and will sell G if it breaches 250. For once.... I'm determined to secure my small profit should the stock cont south. See no reason why it should but then I saw no reason for G not to be over 300.

.....below pre H/Y report.

London opened up 10 & by 9.00am was 20 clear thanks to United Utilities & Severn Trent nos & unemployment nos falling to a 43 year low though av wkly earnings grew at 2.4% are barely ahead of inflation, sterling u/c at 1.2721& the Lira/$ c.6.51. Turkey still on everyone's radar as relations between Ankara & Washington cont at a low ebb as Erdogan bans US electronic goods. Turkey has borrowed more as a % of its econonmy in foreign currencies than any other country and the Central bank is in danger of losing its independence. At mid day London ran out of steam with miners (Antofogasta -7% on ebita down by $96m) Fresnillo, RTZ & Anglo all lower & oils taking a beating, Enquest about the only one up! Royal Mail sagged on £50m fine (competition infringement). Risers Inc Salvarx up 77% on t/o, Debenhams lit up 22% (Ashley effect) and insurer esure (+4%) on Bain taking control were stand- outs. At close the ftse was down 31 (4th straight fall), the 250 off 65 the All -16 & Aim dogs up 3. Lira worries subsiding (Lira/$ 6.35) US stocks rose strongly almost recovering Monday's sell off but traded flat to sideways all afternoon. Low volumes are distorting share prices leaving them prone to volatile intraday moves. Walgreen Boots, DuPont, Goldman & Microsoft led the risers board as 11 of the S&P sectors were blue. Household debt (mortgages, credit, auto loans etc..) at Q2 grew for the 16th Q rising by $82bn to $13.3 trillion reflecting the healthy domestic economy. Musk has roped in Goldman & private equity group Silver Lake in his go-private plan with the Saudis ready to invest heavilly. Tesla shares ($348) are way off his $420 buy out price knocked in part by short sellers. From here this looks a struggle as he's way off building the req numbers. At close the Dow topped out up 112 (25300) ytd up 2.35%, Nsdq gained 51(7871) ytd +14% the S&P +18 (2840) ytd up 6%. The nos: Oil $72.25. Gold $1190 £$ 1.269. £€ 1.121. Coin $6241. Vix 13.3. FF u/c & DF -50. G back to pre H/Y report (7/8) / sp 267 so much for those excellent nos! Im afraid this reaction is all too typical of the London spiv mrkt traders (good nos clobbered bad nos lauded) ok that's an over reaction but many pis think that way. However investors going into cash might be the best policy if geo events turn sour or (sourer?). Morning all.

I don't know let the bulls' n bears fight it out. Afterall its just another viewpoint...not everyone is sold on $100 Oil though I tend to the bull case.

Weak demand set to cap oil price rises. Latest report from (Opec) revealed that S.A. cut its oil production by 200k bpd though this was offset by Nigeria, Kuwait & UAE. Crude is rising outside the cartel as China poured 73kbpd more into the global mrkt. This has helped to hold back the rising OP to $80 and mrkt jitters of falling demand could spell weaker prices as analysts say future demand is now expected to be weaker than once thought and likely to slip into 'oversupply' again. Overall demand for OPEC oil is now expected to be c.600k bpd lower than 2017. Commodity trader Marex Spectron said "our macroeconomic view remains overwhelmingly bearish." As the $ strengthens purchasing power of key oil consumers is getting eroded by the day and short term credit conditions are worsening.

Shares have fallen 50% ytd (40p) and must be a sitting duck. Mrk cap is c.$283m and net debt $135m, barrelage is c.25k bpd, (latest update). Recent package of assets from Santos ($205m) is expected to be earnings enhancing this year. Revs are forecast at $102m and fcf $43m. Gas assets are c.84mmscfd. Ophir is seeking a CEO. Looks cheap to me and would spread our assets from reliance on Kurdistan. Could be a goer.

Turkey cont to dog mrkts, London 100 slipped 25 (7642) weighed down by a weaker pound and lower travel & Bank shares being the worst performers, TUIAG, T.Cook, Easy Jet ( bounced later) & PP Betfair ( why it wasn't called Power Bet I'll never know) cont down on downgrade. Weakness in the Banks (Lloyds off c.1%) exposure to the lira saw some selling. Insurances and miners (evraz) bucked the down trend. The 250 lost most in points terms falling 92 (20575) the All off 15 (4196) & the dogs of Aim -2. While the Turkey Central Bank pledged to provide liquidity into the system and not raising Rates the Lira cont to fall c.6%. Other currencies caught in the crossfire were the Indian rupee an all time low, the Mexican Peso, Russian rouble & S.A.Rand. In N.Y an initial uptick on the Dow soon ran into selling closing down 125 (25188) thats a straight 4 day decline of 441 points. Turkey was the main focus though the US has little direct economic exposure, investors as is their want tend to focus on the latest headline news. Energy and materials bore the brunt of selling as the Lira/$ rate cont south to a low of 7.1 to the $. Most commentators do not see the Turkey crisis as posing significant risks to US stocks which overall have cont to perform very well with the occasional wobble to keep investors on their toes. China & tariffs ever present in investors thinking is the one factor that could upset the apple cart (talks cont). The S&P and Nsdq both lower by 11 and 19. In these erratic mrkts is it any wonder that holding overnight is a long term hold? A mixed picture in Asia, at around 1pm TK +284 (yen gains), HK-234 off days low but (down 640 in 2 days) & SH -14 still weighed down on US declines and Turkish currency hitting new lows. Local factors dominated investors trading particularly on currencies. Here's the nos: Oil $72.86. V 14.78 Gold $1196. £$ 1.276. £€ 1.119. Turk Lira v $ 6.9. Coin $5938. London called up 10 and N.Y. around 60 at today's open. Morning all.

Yea, less than H! Heh heh heh!!

....Sells probably less than H holds!

I have shares in a Co that on 8 occasions last year notified shareholders of new contract wins. At no time did they advise of the contract size. Didnt harm the sp one bit! I know it's a wrench having our monthly 'blood transfusion fix' stopped all of a sudden but i dont see this as a reason for G sp declines.... after all outside of the Q reporters most pis have to wait for H1&2 nos. Doubt the Turkey business impacts on G outside of the jobbers using it as a 'convenient' for scaring off loose holders. JFT you have held the stock long enough to ride out the daily/monthly ups' n downs so you must think 2 years out G will be appreciably higher else you would be long gone seeking pastures new. I will just finish by asking you how many stocks have you that have performed as well as G these last 16 months?

Asian stocks have reacted badly to the Turkish currency / economy crisis down c.40% ytd v the US $. The Finance Minister says he has a plan to stem the decline of the Lira which will be unveiled today. Relations with Uncle Sam are at a low ebb with the cont detention of an American pastor. However it's difficult to see the connection between Turkey the gateway to the Far East & Europe and the way Eastern mrkts have reacted to Turkey woes. The flight to the dollar might indicate that other countries have similar problems. Gold the traditional safe haven is off $3! Currently TK is down nearly 400, HK 520 and SH c.50 near close. Exporters on the Nikkei were clobbered, Canon & Toyota leading the declines. In SH China Properties fell 2% after local banks denied a cut in the mortgage rate and stocks in HK fell across the board. They need little excuse to dump stocks on the Hang Seng or should that be renamed the Sha Tin Exch? Taiwan, S.Korea, Singapore and Malaya all fell in sympathy. No doubt there will be a global bounce back as this crisis more a 'little local difficulty' hardly has the chutzpah to derail the global economy but added into the mix you never know. Here's the nos: Oil $72.57. Gold $1208. £$ 1.275. £€ 1.121. Coin $ 6354. London to mirror Far Eastern declines called 30 lower with the Dow off 120 later on. G up 3 last wk and +163 ytd (152%) kicks off at 271 and likely red today. Morning all.

H, that'll be.c.$950m.

If I didn't know you better H i might accuse you of being a 'snake oil' salesman from the Wild West days of Pat Garret & Billy the Kid. Mind you the LSE might just as well have been the Tombstone High St of yore, where the bulls'n bears faced each other in a death fight. Nothing much changes does it?

Afternoon comeonvog...your quite right of course and the shame of it we didn't have a WB buying G when it was in the knackers yard...which for sure he would have done had he been invested in o...lies...which he wasn't. Little foresight by other managements imo..blood on the streets etc.. that was a golden opportunity missed. I can tell you that a party I'm involved with on an advisory basis lumped on G after the news of the massive downgrade c.60pish a few years back. I'm waiting for my 'drink heh heh heh...needless to say I can do no wrong atm! Trust your finding some winners and keeping some cash (to keep you warm at night) & ready should the bull waiver in front of the hyenas circling the herd.

Outside of an 800 for starters bid and I see no prospect of that atm. So it's keep calm and carry on for the medium term, ie '18 & '19 hoping that in early '19 the OP is nearer $80 than $70 resulting in an improved bottom line free of debt interest and producton of 50k+bopd. Gs current debt is trifling in the world of megabucks oil Cos many carrying $bns on their balance sheets and I doubt that is much of a consideration if we're being looked over, more the 'barrels & gas assets both of which we have in abundance and a political settlement in Iraq would certainly boost sentiment towards investment in K/Land.

Many companies live with low share prices all their lives and there's hardly a CEO who thinks the mrkt prices his Co fairly (Tim Cook might be an exception). Remember $50 oil G at 500? Word might be out that the G board are ready to do a deal no doubt prompted by investment banks and brokers seeking fees and lots of them in an effort to boost the share price through various schemes. In the dull summer months M&A activists stir, LBO, take over, merger or buy backs?, the G bod will have heard them all. When the stock was sub 60 G was at its most vulnerable and nothing happened. I doubt the board could have turned down an offer at 150 back then. Here we are at 270.... have the Co plans to shore up its t/o defences at the sign of a hostile raider? Inevitably speculation about a Co worried about its low sp will draw speculators seeking quick gains trying to front run any board moves. So far no sign of that. The quickest and easiest solution is to take the Co private. I wouldnt be surprised if the bod have entertained the idea but personally doubt they would go down this route because there's not really enough in it for the top brass. A joint venture looks odds on imo if the iis are pressuring the bod to do something about the low share price. For instance a 40% split each with 20% to be publicly traded managed by the G team might be a starting point. The logistics shouldn't prove too difficult, I mean it's not as if there's thousands of staff getting 'pink slips' or differing management styles to overcome. Of course the risk is the mrkt doesn't buy it and like buy-backs you run the risk of the shares falling back. So, maybe we just "keep calm and carry on" Morning all.