Member Info for JohnLewis79

European asset managers are reconsidering their policies on investing in defence to help Europe's race to re-arm. Even RR and Airbus have been 'off limits' for investment.

Britain's Legal & General is among those considering exposure to defence saying the sectors exposure has risen dramatically amid geo political tensions. Many iis are at the point where they are urging companies to invest in defence companies as its important that Europe be able to defend itself.

The mrkt is yet to react to the possibilities of MSi being awarded contracts following this extra cash for the sector.

We are in a good position with equipment in demand by various overseas armies and navies be it Drones or the Terrahawk Paladin military support vehicle which are currently in use in Ukraine. The military aid package is worth $123m.

Wall St's sell off continued yesterday on the escalating Trump trade war which dragged the S&P more than 10% below its recent record highs. The 'Street' is now officially in 'correction' mode

following Trump's threatened huge taxes on European wines & alcohol.

US households & businesses have already reported drops in confidence and 'stagflation' worries persist despite a jobs markt

remaining relatively buoyant which could allow consumers to keep spending. They are yet to feel the full force of tariffs.

On the downside JPMC, Citi and GS mention that Ai may be the bigest challenge banks are currently facing, claiming that Ai could potentially augment every job and warn criminals are using Ai for more sophisticated attacks on banks infrastructures.

Ai and tech connected stocks fell back as investors continue to sell the 'sector' on back of over priced valuations and better to be safe than sorry. However it was not all doom and gloom Intel ($24) jumped 15% after the appointment of a new CEO.

Tesla's bete noire Musk plans a new 'Model Y' costing 20% less to produce to defend China share which couldn't prevent the stock falling $7 to $240 and off 37% this year. On the big board 8/30 managed gains led by Merck, Chevron & Boeing. Leading the losers Apple, HD & Salesforce took the Dow down 537 and 4% ytd.

Nyse data

Issues 2831

Advances 788

Declines 1982

U/c 61

NH 16

NL 183

T/vol(tn) 1•12

-------------

DJ -537 (40,814)

SP -78 (5522)

NS -371 (19,225)

R2 -22 (1249)

WTI $67

10ytb 4•295%

----------

Latest :- Vix 25. Brent $70.

Gold $2985. Copper $4•938.

Palm $1075. Silver $34•525.

$1•294. €1•193.

FF +25. DF +201.

Morning all.

Nyse data

Issues 2834

Advances 1512

Declines 1242

U/c 80

NH 11

NL 112

T/vol(bn) 1•2

-------------

DJ -82 (41,351)

SP +27 (5599)

NS +219 (19,596)

R2 -6 (1271)

WTI $68

10 y/tb 4•299%

-----------

MSCI(W) +20 (3643)

Gold Bugs +2 (330)

---------------

Latest :- Vix 24. Brent $71.

Gold $2940. Copper $4•833.

Palm $1073. Silver $33•560.

$1•296. €1•191.

FF +8. DF -65.

As well as the Midas tip the IC also mentions MSi which I won't access due to the the hassle of having to sign my life away. I wonder how long it will be before lse require one to log-in with unnecessary info on a daily basis?

Morning all.

Nyse data

Issues 2844

Advances 1115

Declines 1646

U/c 83

NH 16

NL 158

T/vol(bn) 1•4

-------------

DJ -478 (41,434)

SP -42 (5572)

NS -54 (19,377)

R2 -6 (1277)

WTI $67

10ytb 4•271%

----------

MSCI(W) -28 (3623)

Gold Bugs +12 (328)

----------------

Latest :- Vix 27. Brent $70.

Gold $2911. Copper $4•807.

Palm $1060. Silver $33•280.

$1•292. €1•186.

FF +25. DF +46.

Morning all.

Yesterday's vols and trades were almost identical to the previous Monday. Very odd.

Over 55,000 in volume and 129 trades went through the ticker yesterday. Expect a drop off today which is usually the case when investors have had their short term fill.

Traders think there is more mileage in the price. I tend to agree. I expect MSi to trend higher despite the lack of any concrete evidence to back up my assertion the shares are ahead 17% this year and could easily hit 1200p by results time.

Will eps of 100 be possible? That looks a stretch to me but if they do that would put the shares on a pe/r of 12x earnings so not unrealistic as its well below the sector average of 26x. However comparables are skewed given our small conglomerate status with revs and profits split over 4 separate divisions.

The US mrkt fell below its 200 DMA for the first time since Nov 2023, which in the past has prompted the Fed to move in to boost investors confidence. Not this time round. After'all 4 weeks ago the major indexes were busting record highs and all was well....until Trump i'll advisedly started slapping tariffs on all and sundry. This took the wind out of equities as recessionary fears ignited mrkts. To date the benchmark index of S&P500 stocks is down nearly 5% this year.

Trump and his attack on mrkts has frightened investors as blue chip stocks like Apple & GS tumble causing investors to flee the mrkt. At lunch the Dow was off over 1000 points down with only 7 stocks in the plus column. Losers were led by Apple, Nvidia, Amex & Walmart.

Top 20 global super stocks like Nvidia and Tesla have dropped 20% & 40% respectively to date and companies that depend on the US consumer feeling good enough to go out and spend also fell. United Airlines & Carnival lost over 8% each. Royal Caribbean ($207) announced a $1bn stock buyback which couldn't prevent the stock countering broader mrkt trends. RC has outpaced the US hospitality industry & wider mrkt by a big margin. Earnings have increased by 70% over the past year.

Investors are gripped by fear that Trump is prepared to see the 'Street' on its back in order to get what he wants risking driving investors into an economic paralysis. The economy has given signals there is worse to come due in part to over' stretched tech valuations, over extended margin accounts and companies yet to feel the full force of tariffs hitting the consumer. Trump calls this a 'transition' period.

However by some measures there is no panic on the Street more a sensible blowing off of froth. Investors are switching to T/bills and gold as prices tend to hold up better when the economy is under pressure.

Trump says he's bringing back wealth to America adding "it takes a little time".

He says he wants to bring back manufacturing jobs and will insensitive US companies (Apple) and others to return to the US to build plants on home soil and make America great again.

Nyse data

Issues 2831

Advances 568

Declines 2207

U/c 56

NH 42

NL 137

T/vol(bn) 1•4

-------------

DJ -890 (41,192)

SP -156 (5615)

NS -770 (19,431)

R2 -22 (1283)

WTI $66

10 y/tb 4•187%

------------

MSCI(W) -89 (3651)

Gold Bugs -11 (316)

----------------

Latest :- Vix 28. Brent $69.

Gold $2900. Copper $4•646.

Palm $1072. Silver $32•575.

$1•288. €1•187.

FF +22. DF +120.

Morning all.

Midas tip or not he has a following which I'm assuming is responsible for the big uptick in vols and bargains dealt today.

So far c.18,100 shares have changed hands on over 66 deals way above the usual Mon morning business. I'd have preferred to hear of a contract win but heh mustn't complain when my net worth increases!

Not worried about Midas tips which seem to get rubbished on a regular basis. A pal of mine lost a bundle on a Midas tip that went to the cleaners. I swerve tips from all quarters as ther'e usually front runners. I don't need anyone to tell me how to lose money!

It's a mixed picture at the start of wk 11 in Far East trading. Tokyo is up 208 at the mid session break though exporters are being sold off while autos and heavyweights find buyers. Japan posted a current account deficit for the first time in 2 years of 258bn yen where exports were up 2% but imports surged 18%.

Sydney is modestly higher reversing losses of the previous 4 sessions. Iron ores and miners lead the advances. Oils and techs are better while the Gold price is in a strong uptrend. Banks are flat to slightly up.

After a choppy days trading the ASX200 closed 14 ahead.

Elsewhere in Asia, S Korea, Singapore, KL and Djakarta are all up while Taiwan, HK and Shanghai are down in quiet trading where China deflationary pressures trouble mrkts.

Authorities in Beijing struggle to encourage more spending despite consumer prices dropping last month the first time since 2024. Inflation fell below zero for the first time in 13 months yet domestic demand remains weak.

Latest :- Vix 23. Brent $70.

Gold $2910. Copper 4•685.

Palm $1103. Silver $32•895.

$1•292. €1•192. 10ytb 4•29%

FF +26. DF -155.

Morning all.

MSi data

Wks 1-10

--------

T/vol 740,610

Buys 411,560

Sells 329,050

Trds 1138

Stocks suffered their worst week in months after so many Trump policy shifts on tariffs. On Friday the mrkts managed to close better after a turbulent week where the S&P lost 3% its bigest decline since Sept.

There has been a sharp fall in sentiment since Wall posted record closes 4 weeks ago. On Friday investors appeared to take solace from Powell comments after he struck a positive tone saying the economy continues to be in a good place.

Recently 151,000 jobs were added in February moderate enough to temper fears of inflation resurging. There were other signs of strains the USD suffered its worst week in 2 years sliding more than 3%.

Car maker Tesla has halved in value since Dec as the sell off in big tech and Ai continues and Hewlett Packard Enterprises slumped 15% after dour 2Q forecasts and CostCo the membership only discount retailer fell $62 to $963 after reporting weak 4Q results.

All 11 sectors except healthcare ended the week in the red with the Russell 2000 small caps tumbling the most some 15% below its peak in Nov. On the ytd the Dow is up 1%, the S&P off 2%, the Nsdq down 4% and the Russell 7% down.

Across the pond the UK's All Share is up 5%.

Nyse data

Issues 2827

Advances 1553

Declines 1200

U/c 74

NH 36

NL 71

T/vol(bn) 1•24

------------

DJ +223 (42,802)

SP +32 (5770)

NS +149 (20,201)

R2 +7 (1315)

WTI $67

10ytb 4•301%

----------

MSCI(W) +49 (3740)

Gold Bugs +3 (327)

---------------

Close :- Vix 23. Brent $70.

Gold $2910. Copper $4•713.

Palm $1103. Silver $32•915.

Yen 148. Yuan 7•23.

$1•292. €1•193.

FF +57. DF -32

Morning all.

Stocks suffered their worst week in months after so many Trump policy shifts on tariffs. On Friday the mrkts managed to close better after a turbulent week where the S&P lost 3% its bigest decline since Sept.

There has been a sharp fall in sentiment since Wall posted record closes 4 weeks ago. On Friday investors appeared to take solace from Powell comments after he struck a positive tone saying the economy continues to be in a good place.

Recently 151,000 jobs were added in February moderate enough to temper fears of inflation resurging. There were other signs of strains the USD suffered its worst week in 2 years sliding more than 3%.

Car maker Tesla has halved in value since Dec as the sell off in big tech and Ai continues and Hewlett Packard Enterprises slumped 15% after dour 2Q forecasts and CostCo the membership only discount retailer fell $62 to $963 after reporting weak 4Q results.

All 11 sectors except healthcare ended the week in the red with the Russell 2000 small caps tumbling the most some 15% below its peak in Nov. On the ytd the Dow is up 1%, the S&P off 2%, the Nsdq down 4% and the Russell 7% down.

Across the pond the UK's All Share is up 5%.

Nyse data

Issues 2827

Advances 1553

Declines 1200

U/c 74

NH

A big jump this week in trds and volumes due to the expected increase on defence spending. However no guarantees MSi will be a beneficiary despite 'Drones' being highlighted, as the competition and diversity of technology has advanced massively in the past few years. The shares put on 110 so no arguments there (910-1020).

MSi would fit in the drone 'hardware' sector as opposed to insurance, software and accessories.

Currently the hardware drone mrkt is worth c.$28•5bn at a CAGR of 27%.

The bigest drone company is China based DJI with over 70% of the market. MSi does not appear on any list of drone companies I could find. Whether we can compete against the big players I really don't know being its such a crowded market.

Wk 10

MSi

---

Sp 1020-1050

1/24 910

H 1136

L 770

7/88 113

----

Trds 241

T/vol 152,150

Buys 90,100

Sells 62,050

Buy % 59

Av 631

---

Ytd

MSI +10%

100 +6%

250 -2%

Aim -6%

All +5%

--

Brent -6%

WTi -7%

Copper +17%

Gold +10%

Palm -4%

Silver +12%

-----------

Wall St ended lower yesterday wiping out the 'Trump Bounce.' The Nsdq confirmed it had been in correction territory since Dec. Ten of 11 S&P sectors finished lower with the bigest losses in real estate and tech with energy the only advancer.

Among individual stocks automaker GM fell 3% while Ford & Tesla also declined.

Marvel slumped 20% to $72 after the chip maker results failed to impress investors despite the company saying they expect revenue growth in the current Q of more than 60%. Broadcom and Nvidia also fell around 6% each pulling the broader chip index down 5%. Nvidia the so called poster child is down 20% this year. On the big board 11/30 gained while the fallers were led by Nvida, GS & Amazon.

Big tech has born the brunt of selling knocking the Nsdq 1420 points lower so far this year. Many still think valuations will continue to be stretched as Trump continues his 'hokey cokey' approach to dealing with tariffs. When asked whether his delays reflected the slump for mrkts he said "I'm not even looking at the mrkt"

Perhaps he should check his main investment vehicle TM&T. The stock is down 35% this year.

Next up for the Fed today is the all important jobs report and the nos of hirings last month. So far this year the solid jobs mrkt and household spending have been linchpins in preventing a recession. Investors think the Fed is planning to cut rates by 25bp in June if not earlier due to stress in the consumer sector impacting the inflation outlook.

Nyse data

Issues 2820

Advances 768

Declines 1982

U/c 70

NH 30

NL 83

T/vol(bn) 1•2

-------------

DJ -428 (42,579)

SP -104 (5739)

NS -576 (20,053)

R2 -17 (1308)

WTI $66

10ytb 4•259%

----------

MSCI(W) -47 (3731)

Gold Bugs -2 (324)

---------------

Latest :- Vix 25. Brent $70.

Gold $2912. Copper $4•760.

Palm $1071. Silver $33•185.

$1•288. €1•192.

FF -48. DF +9.

Morning all.

Good read on Simply Wall St : re MSi.

Wall St turned positive had been 100 lower at open after a report said Trump was considering a one month delay of auto tariffs on Canada and Mexico so they are not at an economic disadvantage. Reciprocal tariffs will still go ahead on April 2nd.

Trump's tariff roller coaster remains front and central to investors, economic data and Fed policies have been relegated to the background.

However businesses are struggling to keep up with the constant changes from Washington and some manufacturers said their growth was now at stall-speed.

On the markets Autos gained on the tariff news with Ford up 6%, GM gained 7% and Tesla put on 3%. Consumer discretionary and communication stocks rose the most yesterday while energy and utilities were the bigest losers. Big climber was Huntingdon Ingalls ($194) up 12% after Trump pledged his administration will create an office of shipbuilding in an effort to resurrect the industry.

In other news 200 employees are being let go at Disney's ABC News group and the 'Jack Daniels' whisky group Brown Forman reported profits ahead of forecasts. Shares put on 10% to $36.

On the DJ big board 24/30 stocks gained led up by Cat, Boeing and Msoft while Chevron, IBM & J&J led the losers. Vol on US exchanges was 15•5bn traded around the 20 day average. Finally gold bulls up 11% ytd, got a fillip after an ADP national employment report showed a rise of only 77,000 jobs in February compared to mrkt hopes for 148,000.

Nyse data

Issues 2841

Advances 1847

Declines 916

U/c 78

NH 33

NL 98

T/vol(bn) 1•3

-------------

DJ +485 (43,007)

SP +64 (5843)

NS +276 (20,628)

R2 +13 (1324)

WTI $67

10ytb 4•327%

----------

MSCI(W) +58 (3778)

Gold Bugs +12 (326)

----------------

Latest :- Vix 23. Brent $ 70.

Gold $2921. Copper 4•805.

Palm $1050. Silver $33•185.

$1•290. €1•194.

FF 56. DF +15.

Morning all.

On the day of Trump's State of the Union speech the Dow staged a strong rally from 844 point lows to nearly break even on the session at lunch. A "Donald Tarrifs" inspired sell off was the catalyst for investors to flee the mrkt at the bell until wiser heads rushed in to pick up bargains and steady mrkt nerves after lunch.

Trade war worries had investors on the sidelines as gains on the Dow were all but wiped out since election day. The 500 fell with every sector losing ground in the morning session, while the Nsdq fell into "correction territory " (10% off closing highs). Shares in financials were among the bigest losers as Citi Group and JPMC sent the bank index down 4% and the fear index rose to its highest since Dec 20.

Imports from Canada and Mexico are now to be taxed at 25% and Canadian energy products subject to 10% import duties. China responded by announcing additional tariffs of up to 15% on imports of key US farm products including pork, chicken, soy and beef.

Canada also said it planned to slap tariffs on around $100bn of American goods over the course of the next few weeks. Trump has stirred up a veritable hornets nest by antagonising close trade partners.

Tit for tat tariffs are promting big US retailers Target and Best Buy to warn profits will be impacted as extra costs hit their customers. Target ($118) fell 6% despite reporting stronger than expected 4Q nos and Best Buy slumped 1I% after topping 4Q estimates. Both retailers reported weaker spend per head citing tariff concerns.

The warnings come as companies close out their latest round of earnings reports. Wall St has already trimmed expectations for the current Q to 7% growth from 11% at the beginning of the year. Yesterday 80% of the S&P 500 index stocks closed down.

At lunch the mrkt was in deep despond and then as if investors suddenly awoke from deep sleep investors poured back in pushing the Nsdq up over 500 points to a 150 point gain, dragging the Dow off 42,237 lows and the 500 to break even.

At the end of a volatile session for investors the mrkt had regained a semblance of calm though inevitably traders took the opportunity to top slice some gains leaving the major indexes with a sickly pallor.

Nyse data

Issues 2848

Advances 636

Declines 2145

U/c 67

NH 42

NL 289

T/vol(bn) 1•1

-----------

DJ -670 (42,521)

SP -72 (5778)

NS -73 (20,353)

R2 -20 (1311)

WTI $68

10ytb 4•241%

----------

MSCI(W) -46 (3725)

Gold Bugs +2 (314)

---------------

Latest :- Vix 24. Brent $71.

Gold $2917. Copper $4•625.

Palm $1030. Silver $32•590.

$1•279. €1•204.

FF +65. DF +210.

Morning all.

Last trade at 11:O1 very odd nothing since. Might get some interest when Wall St opens at 2:30 our time. The Dow is called nearly 200 down at the bell in reaction to Trump's constant politicking on all matters and suspending all arms to Ukraine.

Unfortunately noone can tell him to shut the fcuk up for 5 bloody minutes.

Hi Prof though I still hold PAT my main focus is on a defensive stock bought a few years back. I keep up to date on the mood music on the PAT board served well by some of the old timers. Encouraging to see the sp moving up and I'm in for the long haul.

Your too kind! Any donation to my hardship fund would be appreciated! On a more serious note I hope your investments have appreciated so have a drink on me!