Member Info for JohnLewis79

Trump announced steeper than expected reciprocal tariffs on US trade partners heightening concerns over a global trade war that could destabilise major economies. New levies will be effective immediately. The announcement came after Wall had closed for business.

Trump has imposed an additional 34% on Chinese imports raising total levies on China to a penal 54%. Australia was hit with a 10% levy, Japan 24% alongside the 25% already on autos and auto parts dealing a heavy blow to Japan's auto industry.

The Nikkei 225 is down over 1100 points as car makers stocks slump in early trading today. A few smaller Asian economies have seen 40-50% increase in tariffs which they won't be able to pass on. HK is down 500 but Shanghai is riding out the gloom awaiting the Govts response.

Wall fared better than most imagined the major indexes ending higher on the day. The Dow put on 235 and the S&P gained 38. Eleven of the top 30 stocks fell back on the session led by Coca Cola & Chevron. Heading the risers GS, Amazon & Amex. Big techs bore the brunt of selling Apple fell 7%, Amazon 6% & Nvidia 5%. Tesla lost 7% on fewer deliveries in their latest Q as the backlash against Musks cost cutting efforts gathers steam. It was later reported that Musk will be leaving to return to running Tesla.

However the US economy continues to roll along hiring more than economists forecast last month. The jobs market has been one of the linchpins keeping the US economy out of recession.

Nyse data

Issues 2836

Advances 1949

Declines 790

U/c 97

NH 37

NL 90

T/vol(bn) 976

-------------

DJ +235 (42,225)

SP +38 (5671)

NS +145 (19,582)

R2 +20 (1300)

WTI $70

10ytb 4•051%

----------

MSCI(W) +19 (3669)

Gold Bugs +1 (362)

---------------

Latest :- Vix 22. Brent $73.

Gold $3141. Copper 4•902.

Palm $1083. Silver $33•695.

$1•306. €1•197.

FF -128. DF -921.

Morning all.

Asian mrkts are tracking Wall St higher this morning after another volatile day on the Street where stock prices ranged from a 480 points loss to a points gain of 140 finally closing 12 down.

A report from the Washington Post said White House aides have drafted proposals to impose tariffs of 20% (25% on cars) on most imports to the US though several options are on the table. Trump has been pushing companies to return manufacturing jobs to the US which would be tariff free and make the US more competitive.

On a lack'lustre day 21/30 stocks posted gains led by Nike, Msoft & Nvidia. Going down Amgen, Merck & J&J. Gold has been a big beneficiary of Trump's tariff war climbing briefly to $3175 that's up from $2700 at the start of the year.

Nyse data

Issues 2838

Advances 1726

Declines 1026

U/c 86

NH 34

NL 144

T/vol(tn) 1•0

-------------

DJ -12 (41,990)

SP +21 (5633)

NS +158 (19,436)

R2 +3 (1280)

WTI $71

10ytb 4•196%

----------

MSCI(W) +21 (3650)

Gold Bugs u/c (360)

----------------

Latest :- Vix 22. Brent $75.

Gold $3115. Copper $5•066.

Palm $1070. Silver $34•560.

$1•292. €1•197.

FF -23. DF -33.

Morning all.

MSi stock is up 105p in the first Q of 2025 despite tracking sideways since early March. However for those who track buys v sells will know buy volume is outpacing sell vols by c.100,000.

Whether the update expected anytime now gives the stock a deserved boost is debatable. Given these announcements have a habit of being leaked to the market it looks as though we won't be hearing anything materially new.

To me this looks like too good an opportunity to set the scene for the F/Y nos due in late June which should show a decent rise in revenues and operating profits. Here's hoping the board set the groundwork for the next 5 years by outlining where the company is headed and what actions they will take to get us there.

Investors sense a drift mainly because a lack of communication from the board. I'm sure they are working as hard as ever to increase the returns for holders. Afterall what's good for us is equally good for them.

Behind strong returns for blue chip stocks the Dow was up over 400 in early afternoon trading where 25/30 stocks posted solid gains recouping losses of the last 3 sessions. Not taking part were stocks of airlines, in particular British Airways now (IAG) which sank 7% after Virgin Atlantic said it saw signs of a slowdown in US demand for transatlantic travel.

Others caught up in the sell off were United, Delta & American. UK travel companies (Jet2 & Easy Jet) were also hit by jittery investors fearing holidays will be postponed or worse customers decide to 'stay at home' as a whole raft of price increases hit UK households in the pocket this week.

Today sees the end of a turbulent first quarter for markets where the S&P closed down 360 points the Nsdq was off 195 points & the Dow shed 990. In the UK the All Share ended 221 points lower though the index is up 3•5% this year while the S&P 500 is down 4•6%.

Gold prices continued their record run climbing nearly $40 to $3122 during the afternoon, a new intra-day high. Safe haven concerns and Trump's on off, will he won't he slap more tariffs on imports to America are dividing opinion as to the their effectiveness. But safe haven concerns are still a big attraction for risk averse investors who continue to buy gold, last trading at $3140.

Ford Motor Co maintains its position as the most popular car in America by sales followed by Toyota and GM. Honda and Nissan are close behind. However depending where you look some list Toyota as the best seller with over 2m annual sales.

Slapping 25% on Japanese imports is bound to have a negative impact on those cars. Whether US car buyers will desert the ultra reliable Toyotas, Hondas etc, to buy America or postpone a new car purchase noone knows for certain. Suffice to say car dealers will be passing on these price increases to you know who....

At the close of play the Dow ended up 418 with the 500 clawing back 31 points but the Nsdq lost 3 and trails the others down 8% this year mostly due to the 'mag 7' losing their shine. Apple retains its no 1 position as the world's most valuable company ($3•336T) over Msoft ($2•815T), Nvidia & Amazon in 3rd and 4th place. US companies occupy 8 of the top 10 most valuable global firms by mrkt cap.

Nyse data

Issues 2837

Advances 1413

Declines 1353

U/c 71

NH 51

NL 276

T/vol(tn) 1•4

------------

DJ +418 (42,002)

SP +31 (5612)

NS -3 (19,278)

R2 +5 (1277)

WTI $72

10ytb 4•200%

-----------

MSCI(W) -6 (3629)

Gold Bugs +1 (360)

---------------

Latest :- Vix 22. Brent $75.

Gold $3143. Copper $5•085

Palm $1072. Silver $34•930.

$1•293. €1•195.

FF +37. DF -110.

Morning all.

Dead cat bounce hopefully will delay the inevitable slump if Trumpton gets his way.

Mind you the short sellers will be counting their blessings!

Yea, going down!! Nothing like confirmation of your views. Worst way I'm looking at 2000 point falls fuelled by short sellers on a one way street to easy profits.

Hope I'm wrong (my forecast record in this area is abysmal) so a massive bounce to

get us back to even on the year can't be the end of the world just yet!

Must admit I'd be vary wary of the indiscriminate sell off in MSi despite the shares tanking nearly 100p (at one time). Lumbered in with the overall mrkt throws up

opportunities as long as you take a longish term view and you believe the defence sector has stable revenues. I have no idea if the company has benefitted with new contracts, suffice to say if not, sub 800 is on the cards.

I have holdings in a travel co which have been castrated.

However should Trump be forced to do a volte-face on his crazy global tariffs I'd expect a huge bounce back

for global markets as from reading there is a huge amount of cash waiting to be invested in stocks.

Some say it could be as much as $6tn potentially available on the sidelines to invest in equities as many US investors will cut their 10K savings accounts to jump into equities on a slump in stock prices. Tbh I'd dismiss the $6tn and look for €1bn as a more likely sum.

Either way brave investors will be eyeing this slump in mrkt prices as an ideal opportunity.

Asian mrkts are a sea of red this morning primed for 25% tariffs primarily on auto makers and parts. The Nikkei is down over 1400 points on worries tariffs will hit domestic production and auto sector jobs after Trump said tariffs will be levied on all nations without exception. In late trade the 225 is down over 1400 points.

In Sydney the ASX200 closed 139 down. All sectors fearing worse is to come. Miners, oils and gold led the declines followed by Banks and techs. There are no bright spots. HK and Shanghai are both seeing investors selling out pre Liberation Day on April 2. Not helped by concerns on the lack of domestic consumption and property price woes in Shanghai.

The uncertainty and potential retaliatory action from major trading partners fuelled fears of a worsening trade war and global economic slow down. London and NY are called lower this morning.

Latest :- Vix 22. Brent $72.

Gold $3110. Copper $5•095.

Palm $1072. Silver $35•065.

$1•296. €1•195. 10ytb 4•209.

FF -55. DF -176.

Morning all.

Thanks Troajan very interesting viewing and analysis. Good to see MSi coming out well with no real black marks. Future is dependent on winning more orders which you could say for the other companies.

Let's see if we hear anything this week.

Morning James, I have read of some dissatisfaction of pilots but from what I know Jet2 holiday pilots in the UK are paid around £95,000 a year which is nearly double the national average. Varies on age, experience etc....and some captains are paid well over £100k pa.

This comes from 21 data points collected directly from employees, users past and present and adverts in the past 36 months. As a matter of comparison Emirates Pilots can earn on average £75-£130,000 a year. Easy Jet pilots pull in c. £65,000 per annum and Ryan Air c.£70,000 all base before bonuses etc...

There may be drawbacks but on balance Jet2 pilots are not badly done by as at the last annual pay review a compound increase of over 24% had been paid since 2022. Flight attendants pay averages £26k pa, still well above the national average.

Incidentally Jet2.com has been named as a Which Recommended Provider for 2024 the only UK airline to be given this prestigious award.

Some analysts see Jet2 as a mature business with little new to offer. I disagree while the world may not be their oyster opportunities abound to expand further afield than the Costa Bravas etc...and Jet2 will lead the way.

Giving value for money is paramount in the holiday business and remember Jet2 is a holiday business with an airline which continues to outperform their competitors by expanding to new destinations.

Yesterday's slump in the shares taking them down 17% on the year was in the main due to year end book squaring, profit taking before the close of the financial year and rising staff and fuel costs. These plus the Trump factor has unsettled investors.

However the company maintained its profit forecast of £560m to £570m for the year end to March '25 putting the shares on a sub 8 p/e. An increased dividend and a move off Aim wouldn't go amiss. Either would boost the firms exposure to the wider UK market.

A new year starts on April 6th with the company on the front foot and with the shares in very much oversold territory I'm expecting a re-rate in the coming months.

Big articles in London's Metro newspaper and the Liverpool Echo promoting Jet2 new holiday destinations. One to Bergen to take in the Norwegian Fiords flying from John Lennon Airport and another to Chamberey in France from Newcastle.

These routes are coming as part of the companies massive expansion adding over 96,000 seats due to customer interest. Steve Heapy CEO said " we are seeing continuing demand for our award winning flights and holidays and with winter 2025 & 2026 looking so popular we are in a position to respond with a massively expanded programme."

"Such an expansion would not be possible without customers choosing to travel with us in huge nos, so I would like to thank our loyal customers and independent travel partners for their continued support."

Another wipe out on Wall as tarrifs, worsening inflation, a slowing economy and households afraid to spend due to the global trade war sent investors home nursing big losses on the day.

The 500 dropped 2% for one of its worst days in 2 years slumping to its 5th losing week in the last 6. The Dow sank 715 and the Nsdq lost 112. Stocks reporting stronger profits still fell, Lululemon dropped 14% & Oxford Instruments fell 6% both on deteriorating consumer sentiment as 2/3

become more pessimistic about their future finances. One policy maker described the situation as 'zero visibility' in a dense fog.

Some of the sharpest falls on Friday hit companies that need customers feeling confident enough to spend. Delta Airlines lost 5%, Casino operator Caesar dropped 5% & Domino's Pizza sank 5%. On the top 30 big board only 4/30 posted gains led by Merck, Amgen, J&J and UH. Amazon, Nike and Boeing propped up the laggards.

A number of Bank analysts have trimmed their S&P forecasts to c.6400 for the year. Barclays have slashed their estimates for the S&P to 5900 from 6600 based on lower earnings.

Stock markets worldwide will remain shaky as the April 2 deadline approaches for more 'T' tariffs or what Donald calls 'Liberation Day' when he will roll out tariffs tailored to each of the US trading partners.

In the Bond market the yield on the 10ytb fell to 4•25% from 4•4%. It tends to fall when expectations for US economic growth or inflation are on the wane.

Nyse data

Issues 2834

Advances 591

Declines 2187

U/c 56

NH 40

NL 137

T/vol(tn) 1•04

-------------

DJ -716 (41,584)

SP -112 (5581)

NS -517 (19,281)

R2 -28 (1272)

WTI $69

10ytb 4•239%

----------

MSCI(W) -61 (3635)

Gold Bugs -3 (359)

---------------

Close :- Vix 22. Brent $73.

Gold $3085. Copper $5•107.

Palm $1073. Silver $34•820.

Yen 150. Yuan 7•16.

$1•294. €1•195.

Morning all.

How bloody annoying! I suppose you had to pay up else they'd be slapping £1000 fines on you. Thank God I don't have to deal with that lot as my income is peanuts.

I must have mis'read the h/y statement thinking we'd hear something by years end. Oh well let's hope it's going to be worth the wait!

a big drop off in trds and volumes as q1 ends on monday and the start of a new financial year on april 6

may have kept msi investors on the sidelines.

msi is a tiny part of the mainstream defence sector which has had a very good run this year. so i didn't expect it to trade in the same leagues as bae, or bab****. nevertheless the shares have done well adding 120 or 13% which is ok as far as i'm concerned given the all share is up 5%.

sp 1030-1060

1/24 910

h 1136

l 770

7/88 113

----

trds 78

t/vol 32,900

buy 14,250

sell 18,650

av 421

---

ytd

msi +13%

100 +6%

250 -4%

all +5%

aim -3%

---

oil -3%

gold +18%

palm +4%

----

msi

wk 1-13

vol data

buys 523,500

sells 429,500

t/vol 953,000

trds 1544

---------

Another duff 1/2 session and as per usual i keep up my record of buying to see the stock tank immediately. That's OK as I have ammo into the 1250s which at this rate could happen this afternoon!

Nyse data

Issues 2825

Advances 1152

Declines 1586

U/c 87

NH 39

NL 86

T/vol(bn) 980

-------------

DJ -155 (42,300)

SP -19 (5693)

NS -118 (19,799)

R2 -6 (1300)

WTI $70

10ytb 4•350%

----------

MSCI(W) -13 (3696)

Gold Bugs +9 (362)

---------------

Latest :- Vix 19. Brent $73.

Gold $3080. Copper $5•099.

Palm $1060. Silver $35•250.

$1•295. €1•200.

FF +2. DF +20.

Morning all.

Defence giant Bab**** yesterday received a £1bn order for Challenger 2 tanks, artillery guns and Troajan armoured vehicles for the British Army. It came a Reeves announced an extra £2bn for defense in her budget. The contract will support 1600 UK jobs.

In a further boost for the sector defense contractor Avon Technologies bumped up its annual sales outlook after receiving an order for equipment for the Ukrainian armed forces.

Meanwhile Britain's bigest defense firm BAE Systems told Bloomberg that it was ready to step up capital spending beyond the current record level of £1bn a year as it prepares for a European 'super cycle'

Arms makers are seeing demand ramp up in the UK and on the continent as leaders realise Trump may no longer be a reliable guarantor against Russian aggression.

Holders of MSi have yet to hear if the company was a recipient of any MOD largesse.

Auto stocks sank on reports Trump tariffs on the industry are going to be more severe than many thought. Shares of Tesla and GM fell 7% and 3% before the news that a 25% tariff will be applied on all imports of cars and auto parts of car's not made in the US. Whether this will force foreign car makers to relocate their operations to the US looks unlikely. They may just suck it up and see.

Given many autos are made with parts from different countries its going to be a minefield in apportioning what % goes where once landed. Japanese, Korean and Chinese motors share prices have tumbled in early trade in Asia. However some countries will potentially receive exemptions though true to Trump form details are scant.

Recent economic data revealed a sharp decline of US confidence in March to its lowest level in 4 years highlighting the prevailing uncertainty surrounding tariffs and its impact on US households. Car buyers in the US will likely hold on to their current vehicle loathe to pay a 25% surcharge on a new Mercedes or Toyota. The US imported c.8m cars last year accounting for around $240bn in trade. Mexico is the top foreign supplier of cars to the US.

The UK exported £6•4bn worth of motor vehicles to the US in 2023 and face the 25% import tariff which will drive up prices. Land rover have already said the cost impact will be prohibitive and are reviewing options.

Losses in Nvidia and Tesla dragged Wall St down yesterday the Dow falling 133 points with 6 of the 11 S&P sectors ending lower and the 500 off 64 points at 5712. On the big board 15 stocks closed down led by

Amazon, Salesforce & Nvidia. Heading the risers board P&G, McDonald's and Coca Cola. Ytd the Dow is at break even with the 500 down 3%.

The main talking point today will be the personal consumption index nos one of the Fed's favoured inflation index pointers due on Friday and is expected to show the cost of living rose 2•5% over the last 12 months the same annual rate as in January.

The Fed has held its key Fed Funds rate at an unusually high level for years pushing up borrowing costs on all kinds of loans in an effort to slow down the economy and push down inflation.

Nyse data

Issues 2831

Advances 988

Declines 1774

U/c 69

NH 47

NL 68

T/vol(bn) 970

-------------

DJ -133 (42,455)

SP -64 (5712)

NS -371 (19,917)

R2 -7 (1305)

WTI $70

10ytb 4•355%

-----------

MSCI(W) -37 (3709)

Gold Bugs -3 (353)

---------------

Latest :- Vix 18. Brent $73.

Gold $3036. Copper $5•262.

Palm $1036. Silver $34•365.

$1•292. €1•199.

FF -33. DF +94.

Morning all.

13 analysts offering 12 month price targets for Jet2 have a median target of 2100p with a high of 2385p and a low of 1700p. This represents a 55% increase on current. Further out to Dec 2026 the share to hit 2763 and by Mar '27 2998p.

It's not been a good start to 2022 the shares down 13% so far and near their 2021price.

Of course a lot must go right to achieve those targets not least that Labour don't screw up the economy by raising taxes and killing the insentive to grow. Time will tell on that one but in the meantime I expect Jet2 to overcome the impact of added costs etc....by innotive pricing and deals for those seeking holidays in the sun.

Despite the constant doom 'n gloom from the commentariat, we might just muddle through on weak 1% growth. That's a lot to ask for given some say the UK is already in recession and Donald's tarrif policies doesn't tank the US & global economies.