Member Info for JohnLewis79

The head of the IEA has urged S.Arabia to pump more oil as JPM warned that the price of a boe could more than triple to a stratospheric $380 in a worst case scenario where Russia cut its daily production by 5m boe.

He further warned the world was on the brink of an economic recession as prices surge and inflation careers out of control. He urged the Saudis to increase output by 648,000 boe a day.

Western nations are scrambling to reduce consumption of Russian oil in retaliation for its war in Ukraine. The IEA chief described the crisis as the "first global energy shock" worse than the 1970s because it encompasses oil, gas and electricity.

Last week G7 leaders and the IEA agreed to explore a price cap on Russian crude but without agreement from China and India it was seen as a non starter. October will be the crunch month when consumers face increasing energy bills and be forced to reduce spending as any spare cash is eroded by inflation.

Genel which has been a poor investment is up just 4% ytd at $134 & may get a boost if the OP takes off in Q3-4. To date G has caught a chill underperforming oil by c.40% not helped by Management changes and lack of direction.

Well, "D" day has arrived, let's hope its 'Deliver" Day and not more defer, dither and delay days! Not sure what the outcome will be after all its either a No, we receive the license go ahead or they find another way to postpone.

I guess the Govt won't want to admit any liability as to reimbursement, their lawyers will see to that. So, if our licence is rejected we would have no option but to appeal involving years of litigation and more costs. That would be the worst possible outcome for everyone concerned.

Will common sense prevail this time around? The jury is out but i think both parties are fed up with this and need a sensible resolution tomorrow.

My buy on Thursday never got reported. I know sometimes you get late reported trades but my one went missing, likely on the downtown Mogadishu's Exchange. Given there were only 3 trades all day you'd a really thunk it would? Anyways I got them in my account.

PAT
Ytd

Trades 543
T/vol c.12•17m
Buys c.3•91m
Sells c.8•26m
Sell 68%
-------------

Ytd
WA Gold

Cora 6•10 (-35%)
Glds 6•75 (-41%)
Hum 9•80 (-32%)
Orr •18 (-49%)
Pat 5•75 (-54%)
RRR •38 (-28%)
-------

Ytd

Copper $3•61 (-19%)
Gold $1813 (-1%)
Oil $111 (+43%)
Palm $1480 (+12%)
Silver $19•85 (-15%)
------

DJ +322 (31,097)
SP +40 (3825)
NS +82 (11,586)
R2 +11 (1139)
WTI $108
10ytb 2•894%

MSCI(W) +14 (2560)
Gold Bugs +6 (227)

Close:- Vix 27. Oil $111.
Gold $1813. Palm $1480.
Copper $3•613. Silver $19•855.
$1•209. €1•160.
Morning all.

DJ -254 (30,775)
SP -33 (3785)
NS -155 (11,504)
R2 -4 (1128)
WTI $106
10ytb 2•953%

MSCI(W) u/c (2546)
Gold Bugs -10 (221)

Latest:- Vix 28. Oil $109.
Gold $1803. Palm $1505.
Copper $3•685. Silver $20•020.
$1•213. €1•159. FF -23. DF -304.
Morning all.

Since I've been talking my own book thought it was best I picked up some at 303.

Yea, Mr Market is having one of his off days but as far as the RNS is concerned I can only see positives particularly regarding Labola funding secured.

For $18m which will go a long way towards a Bankable Feasiblity Study, in other words will it be profitable and how much will it cost? Won't be that long before these questions are answered. This will give PAT a much firmer footing to proceed and ease investor concerns. All good so far.

Excellent news on secured non dilutive funding and our 50% of Maniger. Its slow progress but I'm taking out more positives than last week. Now if only we can get something out of Bhukia?......

DJ +82 (31,029)
SP -3 (3819)
NS +20 (11,658)
R2 -11 (1132)
WTI $110
10ytb 3•100%

MSCI(W) -10 (2574)
Gold Bugs -3 (231)

Lstest:- Vix 28. Oil $113.
Gold $1817. Palm $1495.
Copper $3•766. Silver 20•625.
FF-76. DF -178.
Morning all.

For a more accurate picture of MSi actual business, E/V will give one a better idea of its potential take out value.

Firstly MSi's E/Value works out at £73m (£49m +£42m -£18m)
this equates to c.459p. Secondly add £32m for trade receivables, inventory & other which would give an E/v of £105m or 660p. Either way MSi is considerably undervalued by the mrkt.

The US Aerospace and Defence sector have a forward PE/r of 27x so on that number would give MSi an eps of 837p. With 16m shares in issue that would put a sp of 1340p* on the total stock value of MSi, of which US Defence generated c.26% of revenues

The nos indicate how much higher the US values Defense businesses, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a bid surface for MSi if the controlling holders want to sell. Michael and Adrienne Bell own c.31% of MSi with c.40% held tightly by other holders on the register. Interesting times ahead methinks.

* take out non Defense valuations.

A raise at current would be very difficult to get away unless underwriten which it would certainly be. I wouldn't support a raise at 3-4 and i very much doubt pis would either given most of us are in a big hole despite the Co not putting a foot wrong to date.

To raise £1M would cost c.£350,000 and as most of us know early stage miners tend to bleed shareholders dry and you run the risk of being diluted into oblivion if you don't participate. Throwing bad money after bad money ain't recommended.

Question is will Bhukia come to our rescue next week? Who can say but the omens are not good and no'one got rich relying on the Indians let alone doing business with them.

Oriole Resources in cash raise (£340k) via a placing of 188•8m new ords taking the outstanding to 2•183bn. Our turn next?

Price to earnings vary enormously from sector to sector and company to company. For instance gaming at 2300x to retail at 7x seems meaningless unless you deep dive into the specifics.

In the Aerospace/Defence sector the p/e average is currently c.36x earnings and is projected to grow by c.10•25% over next 5 years. MSi current p/e is 9•6x considerably below the sector average.

If you look at the sector average PEG ratio at 2•18 compare that to MSi (c.•48 / 20% est growth) indicates an undervalued excellent stock. As a general rule a PEG ratio above 1 might indicate an overvalued stock.

So on two important metrics MSi is undervalued and surely due a re-rate in the months to come. Its accepted that an average return of between 6% & 10% is good before inflation so MSi scores well on that count. MSi is perfectly placed to take advantage of the many opportunities in the US Defence space while our dithering MOD drag their feet.

DJ -491 (30,947)
SP -79 (3822)
NS -370 (11,638)
R2 -18 (1144)
WTI $111
10ytb 3•170%

MSCI(W) -39 (2584)
Gold Bugs -6 (233)

Latest:- Vix 28. Oil $113.
Gold $1823. Copper $3•760.
Palm $1500. Silver $20•800.
$1•221. €1•159.
FF -58. DF +44.

Just 2 mrkts in Asia are ahead in morning trade, KL and Singapore, the larger Asian mrkts follow weakness in US stocks. A bout of profit taking in Tokyo saw the Nikkei fall c.290 mid morning taking the index just above 26,700 level. Exporters and techs were sold. Stocks in HK suffered profit taking having risen c.7% last week the Hang Seng is down 340 & Shanghai directionless off 26 having gained over 4% in recent days.

Australia is sharply lower (-72) mirroring the tech heavy Nsdq where FAANG stock's cont to fall. Peer group leader Apple fell $4 to $138 and is down 45% ytd but Netflix has fallen over 70% this year (UP 15,000% since IPO). The Co is hoping the final season of the "Crown" featuring Dominic West as Prince Charles will reverse the exodus of subscribers this year.
Morning all.

Didn't manage to hold on to the best of the day but a fair result (the mrkt rarely goes overboard) in rewarding companies who produce better than expected numbers.

Just 26,231 volume on the session over 28 bargains dealt. MSi is a very very thinly traded counter with I estimate c.4•7m free float so any concerted buying or selling is going to have a disproportionate effect on the sp and many iis avoid such companies as its impossible to build a meaningful stake.

Today it was buys outpacing sells by c.2•2:1 hence the rise with i doubt much if any iis presence. The management might consider widening the availability of the stock via a stock split but with cash and equivalents of £18m I can see their reluctance in doing this at present especially as the outlook is very promising for our land based defence equipment.

I will certainly buy on any weakness and consider MSi a very strong hold.
Evening all.

Absolutely Taverham, a little gem and I say 'little' advisedly as next year it will not apply once US and UK ramp up contracts for their armoury. Great to invest in a company not littered with qualifications, write offs, poor weather, covid excuses etc... I missed adding a few as monies were delayed but will do so when the shares trade ex the initial euphoria.

Wow!!. Well above my expectations!

Despite the half hearted sp bounce yesterday (+6 to 122) cpo continues to fall, currently $1400 and could be heading to $1000. At that price I doubt REA makes money given inflation and increasing costs particularly of fertiliser.

Over on (advn) nobull opined he thought our Stone (80m tonnes) could be worth $16 a tonne (1m cubic metres of andesite stone) On his nos that equates to $1•28bn or £1•04bn roughly 240p which if nobul is only half right would give our revs a considerable boost. Add in our % of Coal loan repayments due these extra monies should compensate us for any longer term falls in palm prices if indeed they head towards $1000.

I guess you could look at a sp of 200 sometime in 2024 if we have reduced our debt to c.$100m, coal loans repaid and stone monies piling up boosted by the gearing effect could turbo the shares but that's too far out for my liking, so very much a ball park figure.

The proposed building of Nusantara the new capital on the East Coast of Kalimantan will require tons of crushed stone which REA will be able to supply in the coming years. It's expected construction will start in 2024 with over 100,000 workers employed.

I think the risk of us defaulting a real worry at one time has passed which should give investors confidence REA will continue to trade profitably even with the extra balance sheet baggage, £ notes, $ notes, loans etc and divs on the Prefs, albeit reducing.
Morning all.

DJ -62 (31,438)
SP -12 (3900)
NS -98 (12,008)
R2 +9 (1161)
WTI $111
10ytb 3•179%

MSCI(W) +4 (2623)
Gold Bugs +2 (240)

Latest:- Vix 27. Oil $112.
Gold $1827. Copper $3•754. Palm $1400. Silver $21•130.
$1•228. €1•160. FF -7. DF -17.
Morning all.