Member Info for JohnLewis79

A good start to wk 31 trading across Asia and Pacifica this morning. Tokyo and Shanghai lead the way, HK off just 70 going into the afternoon session. A better close on the 'Street' on Friday helped the fragile sentiment. Increasing covid infection rates of the BA.5 omicron variant is putting a heavy strain on Japanese hospitals.

After months of declines the Gold mrkt is seeing some bullish momentum despite US consumer confidence at its lowest level since early 2021, gold and silver moved to multi week highs. Currently $1776 traders expect $1800 to see profit taking cap any further advances.

Towards close Tokyo is up 170, HK off 65 and Shanghai up 5. Futures call for a weak opening on the ftse (-21) and the Dow off 136 points.
Morning all.

Trading view analysis predict a big Q4 as the stock reaches a significant area of value and the recommendation is a BUY. The results are likely to be incorporated into the maiden resource estimate.

Ytd's
WA
Gold
--------
Cora -47%
Glds -53%
Hum -37%
Orr -48%
PAT -46%
RRR 0•00%
--------
Brent +33%
Copper -19%
Gold -3%
Palm -17%
Silver -13%
---------
£$ -10%
£€ +•09%
---------

DJ +315 (32,845)
SP +58 (4130)
NS +230 (12,948)
R2 +10 (1240)
WTI $98
10ytb 2•651%

MSCI(W) +37 (2746)
Gold Bugs +2 (207)

Close:- Vix 21. Brent $104.
Gold $1783. Copper $3•594.
Palm $1100. Silver $20•335.
$1•218. €1•191.
Morning all.

The US economy shrank in the 2Q. GDP a measure of economic activity fell by 0•9% April through June. The White House is adamant that the economy despite years of high inflation and supply shocks remains fundamentally sound due in part to monthly job gains averaging 450,000 (last 6 months).

Analysts warn that the build up in Co inventories could pose problems for the likes of Walmart who will have to cut prices to move product. On a slightly downbeat note the latest nos show job claims increasing reflecting an economy moving into a lower gear.

DJ +332 (32,530)
SP +49 (4072)
NS +116 (12,718)
R2 +15 (1230)
WTI $97
10ytb 2•694%

MSCI(W) +35 (2710)
Gold Bugs +5 (206)

Latest:- Vix 23. Brent $102.
Gold $1761. Copper $3•471.
Palm $1060. Silver $20•025.
$1•217. €1•194.
FF +18. DF +28.
Morning all.

The Fed raised rates 75 basis points setting the cost of borrowing between 2•25% and 2•50% the 4th rate rise this year in an effort to calm price rises with higher rates. The Fed will review the situation at their Sept FOMC meeting. In response the BOE is eying a 50 basis hike in UK rates next week.

Powell said there would be more outsized increases ahead if inflation is not brought under control. He said he did not believe the US was currently in a recession as job growth remained strong with 372,000 added in June and unemployment unchanged at 3•6%. US labour force participation rate edged lower to 62•2% in June.

US stocks rise sharply on the news led higher by big tech.

DJ +436 (32,198)
SP +103 (4024)
NS +515 (12,602)
R2 +28 (1214)
WTI $99
10ytb 2•783%

MSCI(W) +51 (2675)
Gold Bugs +2 (201)

Latest:- Vix 23. Oil $103.
Gold $1735. Copper $3•487.
Palm $1070. Silver $19•190.
$1•216. €1•191.
FF+17. DF-53.
Morning all.

Will the coal and stone operating nos cover the likely break-even or losses on our palm profit numbers at the half way stage? Cpo at ($1070) (down on last year) have been on a one way slump since Wikodo poked his nose into other people's business.

Reduced demand at the upcoming peak (Diwali) season will weigh further on prices now expected to fall through $1000 level during Q3 as Indonesia attempts to reduce inventory by scrapping the export levy and could also remove a domestic sales rule for exporters in a belated effort to boost prices.

Though REA sell into the domestic mrkt (not subjected to levy or duty) we are inevitably impacted by global prices resulting in prices broadly in line with cif(r). Until supply & demand revert to the normal cpo prices are likely to remain depressed.

London palm co prices differ widely, REA is 13% down ytd (off a 6 month 200p high) with Mpe flat and Anglo up 26%.
Morning all.

A mixed picture across the Far East & Pacifica this morning as traders await the latest news from the FOMC monetary policy decision due later today. A hike of 75 basis is expected.

The Nikkei 225 has reversed opening falls to trade up 50 recouping losses in the prev 2 sessions. HK seeks direction having alternated between positive and negative finishes over the last week, is currently down 337 points sitting just above the 20,500 level. Property companies pulled the sector index down.

China's main index is flat after 3 days of losses or nearly 2% on covid worries and falls among distressed property companies in Shanghai. The main index has lost 10% ytd and the small cap Shenzen index is 13% down.

The IMF cut its global GDP forecast for 2022/3 to 3•2% slightly lower than its April projection.

DJ -228 (31,762)
SP -46 (3921)
NS -242 (12,087)
R2 -7 (1187)
WTI $95
10ytb 2•807%

MSCI(W) -27 (2624)
Gold Bugs +4 (196)

Latest:- Vix 24. Oil $99.
Gold $1714. Copper $3•385.
Palm $1070. Silver $18•485.
$1•205. €1•188.
FF +15. DF +114.
Morning all.

Take your points Tartine, never wrong to keep a healthy bank balance but I think they could keep holders on side via a special one off payment of say 10p which would be affordable.

Its our money afterall and wouldn't make much of a dent in our rising cash balances which could be offset by cutting expo costs if the bod were that worried.

For the trading analysts among you (moving avs, pivots, oscillators etc..) MSi's nos and views are well supported.

Summary
6 sell, 10 neutral, 10 buy

Oscillators
1 sell, 9 neutral, 1 buy

Moving Averages
5 sell, 1 neutral, 9 buy

RSI
51 neutral

Receipt of $48•8m for oil sales.

Two important events take place this week which will have a bearing on Gold prices. Firstly since June the CPI has cont to worsen and inflationary pressures are now at a 41 year high (9•1%) most likely forcing the Fed to raise rates.

Probabilities are 77% for a 75 basis hike and 22•5% for a full 100 hike. The second event is the release of 2Q GDP expected to show negative growth in the economy, clear pointers to an economy heading into a recession.

Gold prices have been declining steadily this year particularly during the last 3 months as the USD and Bond yields spiral higher. However some think the Fed is close to the end of the 'tightening' cycle which could be good for Gold especially if a Sovereign debt crisis hits Europe, they hiked rates last week in a surprise move. The Bank said they would cont to buy Bonds from indebted Nations to ensure the Eurobond mrkt doesn't fragment or implode.

Analysts note the last time Golds net positioning ($21bn) was this bearish the mrkt turned and went on a months long rally to $2000.

DJ +91 (31,990)
SP +5 (3967)
NS -68 (12,328)
R2 +8 (1193)
WTI $98
10ytb 2•791%

MSCI(W) u/c (2651)
Gold Bugs -7 (194)

Latest:- Vix 23. Oil $102.
Gold $1722. Copper $3•414.
Palm $1185. Silver $18•415.
$1•207. €1•179.
FF +8. DF -112.
Morning all.

Mostly lower across Asia this morning with the Nikkei off 230 on worries of a new covid variant BA.5 taking hold. Shanghai and HK follow Tokyo's lead lower. Slower growth and rate hikes cont to keep many investors on the sidelines as mrkts expect rates to be hiked this week by 75 basis points when the FOMC meet on Tuesday.

A slew of big tech companies will be reporting Q2 earnings hoping the Fed will ease back on their aggressive stance on rates. Results in the coming weeks will include Apple, Msoft & Coca Cola who face a strong USD nearing a 20 year high hurting profits (c.40% of the SP500 revenues are earned overseas).

A strong USD can be a headwind for US companies as it makes exporters products less competitive abroad and hurts the multinationals when converting their foreign profits back into USD.

A weak start is expected this morning with the ftse called down 40 and the DJI off 38. Ytd the ftse is down 1•5% with the DJ off 12% and the SP500 falling 17%, it's third worst performance since Oct'87.

Morning all.

DJ -138 (31,899)
SP -37 (3962)
NS -223 (12,396)
R2 -11 (1185)
WTI $95
10ytb 2•759%

MSCI(W) -13 (2651(
Gold Bugs -2 (201)

Close:- Oil $99. Vix 23.
Gold $1725. Copper $3•322.
Palm $1200. Silver $18•490.
$1•200. €1•175.

PAT
Ytd
Trades 605
Vol c.14•22m
Buy c.5•62m
Sell c.8•60m
Sell c.60%
RSI 76

Ytd
Cora (-45%)
Glds (-53%)
Hum (-37%)
Orr (-48%)
Pat (-46%)
RRR (+5%)
--------
Ytd
Gold -6%
Brent +27%
Palm -5%
Copper -25%
Silver -21%
--------
Ytd
£$ -12%
£€ -1%

DJ +162 (32,037)
SP +39 (3999)
NS +179 (12,619)
R2 +3 (1197)
WTI $97
10ytb 2•899%

MSCI(W) +20 (2664)
Gold Bugs +3 (203)

Latest:- Vix 23. Oil $100.
Gold $1712. Copper $3•318.
Palm $1250. Silver $18•680.
$1•196. €1•174.
FF +15. DF -52.
Morning all.

1•1m shares traded today on the buy side made no diff to the sp. Nevertheless a sign that sentiment might be changing ahead of the next updates.

However anyone expecting a surge in the sp needs to reign in their enthusiasm for imo 6-10 will be the tops. The mrkt has no reason to revalue PAT in the light of other good results from the likes of Cora and Hummingbird who have seen declines in their share prices despite better than expected numbers. When your lumbered in a duff sector your lumbered in a duff sector.

Much as I like to think PAT is different I fear the mrkt will think us to be one of a bunch of 'Goldies' producing the goods but facing investor apathy. Kinda like the current Gold price which has just bounced off a 15 month low of $1678 on short covering, a weaker USD and a dip in T/Bill yields.

Adding to the good news for Gold ($1709) the ECB raised rates by 50 basis but would not provide any guidance on future hikes. The mrkt has priced in a 50-75 rate hike in US rates next month which could hit c.4% in 2023.

DJ +48 (31,875)
SP +23 (3960)
NS +190 (12,440)
R2 +17 (1193)
WTI $103
10ytb 3•012%

MSCI(W) +16 (2644)
Gold Bugs -6 (201)

Latest:- Vix 24. Oil $106.
Gold $1691. Copper $3•278.
Palm $1250. Silver $18•460.
$1•198. €1•174.
FF -8. DF -27.

The Japanese mrkt is modestly better (+31) in mid'day trade continuing a 5 day win streak. Traders remain cautious ahead of the BOJ's monetary policy decision today and booked profits trimming recent gains.

In Shanghai the mrkt is off 13 having finished 2•2% higher in the prev 3 sessions. However the Govts hardline approach is being tested as a more infectious strain of the virus spreads and 13 of the cities 16 Districts are being blitz tested. Many citizens are leaving Shanghai for the countryside in fear of contacting the virus of which 64,000 new cases have been reported.

In HK the mrkt resumes its bearish trend the Hang Seng off 260 at lunch for 6/7 session falls. Property, Banks & Casino chips taking the brunt of selling. In Pacifica its a mixed picture with a lack of direction despite Wall St gaining yesterday.
Morning all.