Member Info for JohnLewis79

DJ -164 (31,174)
SP -45 (3854)
NS -265 (11,860)
R2 -15 (1128)
WTI $102
10ytb 2•966%

MSCI(W) -31 (2572)
Gold Bugs -3 (214)

Latest:- Vix 26. Oil $105.
Gold $1731. Copper $3•408.
Palm $1330. Silver $19•000.
$1•188. €1•185. FF -25. DF-145
Morning all.

Spot on davey50. Crazy low price for a company in expansion mode even as they load up on debt. As long as int rates don't get out of control and inflation starts coming down Zam will
prosper. For such a well managed business a terrific opportunity to add at this BOGOF deal.

Nofookinfear will disagree but I see a lot more upside than downside heading into H2. Unfortunately I'm unable to add atm as I'm hamstrung in a non performing Gold counter which would cause me serious pain we're I to bale out.

A mixed picture to the start of wk 28 trading across the Far East and Pacifica regions. Stocks in HK slumped over 2% (600) points following news that China has imposed fines on Tencent (-5%) & Alibaba (-3%) for not complying with anti monopoly rules on disclosure of transactions. Numerous other companies were fined by regulators.

In Tokyo stocks were bouyed by the ruling coalition expanding its majority in an Upper House election expected to provide administrative stability. The 225 gaining 340 at mid'day.

In Macau casino stocks were hit hard due to all commerce and industry businesses will shut for a week in a bid to stop the spread of covid infections.
Wynn Macau and Sands China tanked 6% & 8% respectively.

Investors are bracing for a US inflation report that could force another 75 basis hike in rates as the start of Q2 US earnings season gets underway. JPM & MS report on Thursday with Citi & Wells Fargo on Friday. Consensus sees 2Q S&P eps growth of 6% y-o-y. Cautious commentary will likely prompt cuts to forward earnings numbers.

Weakness on Wall on Friday sees the Ftse opening c.70 lower and the Dow off 150 points.

Morning all.

Boris's 'chumocracy' eventually did for him as he could no longer gloss over the worst of his behaviour by branding enemies as traitors or worse. With his premiership in ruins his last ditch effort to shore up his position flagged as Minister after Minister urged him to resign.

Bending rules to keep his pals happy was always going to end in tears especially if the top gun rides roughshod over and around them reminding Joe public to play the game. As ever with Boris it was the Eton wall game rule for him and the plebeian rule game for us.

Now we have a succession of discredited MPs telling us they will restore integrity to our democracy and rebuild the publics faith in the House of Commons. Do they think we have forgotten these were the very people turning a blind eye to the partygate p***ups giving Boris a blank cheque to sign while he held at bay a crusading labour party out Tory blood.

Methinks it will add to the contempt many of us feel for the jobsworths now knifing the PM. Fearing for their political livelihoods they trade favours for advancement as we shall see as the 'usual gang' parade their rotten wares before the electorate promising a golden future for all and sundry.

Having given Boris a thorough shafting the public are ready to exact revenge on those MPs seen to have abandoned a man who was the instigator of his own downfall. For all his faults like trying to play the fool and being all things to all men, he sadly lacked a half decent backing band. I for one will not condemn him for that.

Nofookinfear if you sincerely believe Zam is headed to 6 I hope you are shorting the hell out of this. If your right you will make a lot of money.

Have some recent 'chunky' sells given you hope Zam is headed that way? The direction of travel says different. Your a braver man than me but have you put your money where your mouth is?

What the mrkt may not have taken account of is the rapid reduction in debt thank to coal shipments probably to the tune of a couple of mill a month could see debt at £100m sometime late next year?

Odey dumping a slug of REA didn't help the price or sentiment which for better or worse is at an all-time low thanks to a meddlesome Govt and a string of other negatives. I should add but likely will have a better opportunity down the road if the cpo bears keep selling.

EV? Perhaps NV (no value) is more appropriate as REA (118) fell 8p and cpo $150 on the week. That takes the cpo price back to break even for the year.

Ytd
Sp's
-----
Anglo 787 (+12%)
Mpe 864 (+7%)
Rea 118 (-16%)

52wk
High
--------
Anglo (926)
Mpe (1085)
Rea (200)

Indonesia is considering setting the ref price for palm oil every 2 weeks due to the volatility of prices. Currently exorbitant taxes and levies are making it almost impossible for farmers to make a profit.

In an effort to spur shipments and cut domestic stocks the levy has been cut to a max of $200pt for July from $375 previously but is due to increase the level to $240 in August. That looks unlikely now as cpo has slumped to $1330. The price slump has been alarming, since early May crude was trading at $1900 albeit briefly. The worry is the price is headed to sub $1000 as recession and covid fears in China kills off demand.

DJ -46 (31,338)
SP -3 (3899)
NS +17 (12,126)
R2 -3 (1144)
WTI $105
10ytb 3•084%

MSCI(W) +2 (2604)
Gold Bugs -1 (217)

Close:- Vix 25. Oil $107.
Gold $1741. Copper $3•520.
Palm $1330. Silver $19•235.
$1•203. €1•181.
Morning all.

Wk 27
Ytd
PAT
------
Trades 552
T/vol c.12•48m
Buys c.4•21m
Sells c.8•27m
Sell 66%

Ytd
------
Cora -38%
Glds -42%
Hum -33%
ORR -49%
PAT -54%
RRR -19%
------

Gold (-5%)
Oil (+37%)
Palm (+1%)
Silver (-18%)
Copper (-21%)
-------

$ (-11%)
€ (-1%)
-------

I doubt the Genel IR team know what's going on....

Pretty sure I read somewhere that mining costs are (ball park fig) around $800-$1000 an ounce. Of course as to grades they are not all equal but if PAT has c.1,000,000 ounces in the ground at the current Gold price even a simpleton like me can work the nos to be worth a lot more than our £8m mrkt cap.

If you ascribe a value of $200-$400 net an ounce to Panthera at the lower number our value would be in excess of £200m or c.167 per share (28×) current sp.

Unfortunately the mrkt values WA Gold juniors at crash and burn prices for instance HUM at £39m, Goldstone at £31m and Cora £17m. So until there is a massive re-rate it's best not to think PAT is mis'priced by 28x perhaps by 4x that way you won't be too disappointed.

In the fairly recent past an RNS announcement of this sort would have sent the shares lower!

Perhaps sentiment is changing and the mrkt will begin to re-value PAT in the light of these drill results. Bit of a longshot I'm afraid but we live in hope......

DJ +347 (31,385)
SP +58 (3903)
NS +256 (12,109)
R2 +20 (1147)
WTI $103
10ytb 2•974%

MSCI(W) +41 (2602)
Gold Bugs +2 (218)

Latest:- Vix 26. Oil $105.
Gold $1739. Copper $3•509.
Palm $1450. Silver $1•910.
$1•201. €1•183. FF -20. DF -70.
Morning all.

It's all blue, black whichever colour you want to call it all Far East mrkts are ahead this morning.

Dealers digested the latest Fed Open Mrkt policy meeting minutes and found little of note other than being committed to bringing down inflation via aggressive rate hikes which are likely to be 50- 75 basis at the July meeting. One basis point increase is equal to one-hundredth of a % point.

GDP fell 1•6% in Q and is on course to decline by 2•6% in Q2. CPI is running at 8•6% miles above the Fed's preferred 2% target as the divergence between Wall St (equities) and Main St (price worries) narrows .

S.Korea led the major Asian bourses higher (1•8%) as Samsung posted increased nos and guidance for Q2. The Nikkei is up over 400 recouping yesterday's losses. HK is flat but well off 300 points lows. Australia is 50 better in afternoon trade helping other Pan Pacifics.

Gold is heading south due to $ strength and Brent trades at a near 2 month low ($101). Chaos in Downing St rolls on and the PM will face a vote of no confidence as soon as the 1922 Committee change the rules.

DJ +70 (31,078)
SP +14 (3845)
NS +73 (11,853)
R2 -13 (1127)
WTI $99
10ytb 2•920%

MSCI(W) +7 (2561)
Gold Bugs -1 (216)

Latest:- Vix 27. Oil $101.
Gold $1743. Palm $1305.
Copper $3•490. Silver $19•285.
$1•195. €1•171. FF +90. DF +86.
Morning all.

WGAF anymore? Next hearing date August 2022....er, more like 2032. By when all the litigants will be dead and buried. You really would think the Judge would have put his foot down by now and ended this farce. The independence of the Indian Legal system has never been in question.

Maybe noone cares, the shysters are making money and let's face it that's the object of all these delays as long as PAT get royally screwed everyone's happy. Perhaps Fasken won't be too pleased but I'm sure they have their 'outs' if you know what I mean?

Keep getting RNS news that we don't want to know about. So, another 416,000 issued to the share capital now creeping up to 120m issued and heading a lot higher.... Nah, so what?

However, of more interest we're they Nil cost options? Don't be silly of course not (as far as I know) they were freebies...NICE, very NICE. God forbid you ask Directors to sign the bar bill, OH NO, NO, NO!

Oh well, we sit and suffer awaiting the perennial non event in Delhi which will keep us mired in a bum Gold mining sector like WA, for well
you pick a number, less than 2 years, more than 5, maybe forever and a day?

I don't need to remind you WA gold aint breaking any records i know about, which might be the ideal moment to invest your last few pennies if you believe in blue sky miniers in far off distant lands. Ask others in the bombed out sector what the think you should do?.

Nearly mid day in Delhi. Probably adjourn for lunch. We may not hear anything today as the lawyers will want to scrutinise in detail any announcement.

Back of fag pckt calcs
------------------------------------
give REA an enterprise value of c. £245m (557p), that is what an acquirer might have to pay.

Calcs as below

Mrk Cap $66m
Debt + $228m
Minorities + $21m
Prefs + $116m

Cash -$47m
Long-term -$55m
Other -$32m

E/V $297m ÷1•21
= E/V £245m
= 557p

That's a huge margin of safety but as we know Mrkt Cap and E/V are as diff as chalk and cheese and can best be summed up as.....

Price is what you pay, value is what you get.....whichever way you look at the nos the sp is hugely undervaluing REA. Unfortunately this has always been the case, well since i got on board a few years ago. When you have such a large discrepancy between M/Cap and fair value its best to side on Mrkt Cap in my view as E/V has a fair bit of 'hopium' attached.

A mixed picture to trading at the start of H2. Pan Pacifica trends lower while the major indexes in Hong Kong and Shanghai are off opening lows.
The Nikkei is closed for a local holiday. Traders await Central Bank decisions in Malaysia, S. Korea and Singapore.

While Shanghai based Property Developer Shimao the 6th largest issuer missed int rate and a principle payment on an offshore Bond of $1bn. Many Chinese property companies are hugely indebted and 3/5 bigest issuers have already defaulted on their $ Bonds. Many lenders have agreed 'breather' periods while restructuring takes place.

Oil futures fell in early trade, Brent slipped to $111•25. Gold prices fell below $1800 but have rallied in early trading as analysts say Gold is trading at fair value having ended its 3rd wk in negative territory. Gold still outperforms equities (ytd) as the S&P 500 ended H1 down c.20% its worst performance since the 1970s.

New York is closed for the July 4th holiday. The ftse 100 is called up 47 points after the Dow rallied 325 on Friday.
Morning all.