Member Info for JohnLewis79

With no lead from Wall St, bargain hunters were out in force across Asia this morning seeking out oversold stocks. The Nikkei is ahead nearly 550 with the rest of the main exchanges trading higher though Shanghai is muted.

Australia's ASX200 is up 91 snapping a 7 session losing streak. Materials, energy and miners were being bought. The Reserve Bank of Australia said the Govt will be tough on inflation and will tighten monetary policy as and when. The Governor expects inflation will peak by year end.

Ftse +105 (7122)
All -6 (3882)
250 +84 (19,011)
Aim +8 (901)

MSCI(W) +9 (2495)
Gold Bugs (closed)

Latest: Vix 31. Oil $115.
Gold $1842. Palm $1490.
Copper $4•019. Silver $21•665.
$1•228. €1•166. FF +24. DF +155.

Morning all.

Poor start to wk 25 trading in Asia & Pan Pacifica with only HK ahead. Likely a hang over from last weeks trading in the US where mrkts suffered their worst wk since 2020 on recessionary fears.

Declines in techs and energy pushed the Nikkei 300 lower at lunch as traders fret about the Fed's aggressive stance on raising rates. In China the 1 & 5 yr loan rates were left unchanged by the Central Bank. However in S.Korea mrkts tumbled over 2% led down by industry heavyweight Samsung.

Latest.
Brent is off $1 to $113 and Gold is up $6 at $1846. London is called a couple of points better while in America mrkts are closed for a holiday.

Morning all.

I think you guys have covered all the current news. The expansion is sensible and overdue but beware a raise on the horizon via placing or rights potentially diluting holders. Assuming the proposed funding has been inked it would dwarf the current mrkt cap making it much harder to add a $ value for a $ spent.

Whatever the financials turn out in the years ahead going for growth in these pressing times is paramount especially in Sub Saharan Africa. A good move even if the mrkt took a dim view but don't they always? Still way out of the money here and a long road ahead for committed holders.

I'm staying in, kinda like a few of my other unloved(s) I have little choice. We shall see if its the right move at the right time, on paper it sure does!

PAT has a wide resource estimate for Labola of between 0•5moz to 1•5moz.
At the current Gold price ($1840) on the lower est of 500,000ozs would equate to $920m (£750m) valuation.

Of course that doesn't mean the mrkt will assign that value to PAT, given that Gold in ground is subject to all sorts of deductions, grades, tons etc..

So, for a more realistic value of our 20% stake I've estimated c.100,000ozs, that equates to a value of c.$184m/£150m worth around 125p and if that seems on the high side deduct 50% leaving us c.60p valued at c.£70m.

My nos are bofp calcs so please agree/disagree as the wide discrepancy between my estimates and the mrkts look way out of kilter. I guess a value of between the two might be on the money, so say £90m for 20%?

DFR might not agree looking to pay c.£50m which would still be worth 42p a share.

PAT
Ytd
------

T/trades 528
T/vol 11•76m
Buy 3•79m
Sell 7•97m
Sell 68%
Ytd Down 53%
----------------------

On reflection I think I overdid my annoyance re the poor performance of the sp yesterday, another 11% fall on the wk was not what I expected. However if I had bothered to check sells outpaced buys by 9:1on the wk so the stock had only one place to go....(follow the money).

For a more balanced assessment check mickey1122 & LawrenceH posts both much more positive than mine, which I put down to my... the "glass is half empty" pessimistic viewpoint.

DJ -38 (29,889)
SP +8 (3675)
NS +138 (11,266)
R2 +8 (1095)
WTI $110
10ytb 3•236%

MSCI(W) -5 (2486)
Gold Bugs -3 (242)

Close: Vix 31. Oil $114.
Gold $1842. Palm $1557.
Copper $4•001. Silver $21•630.
$1•222. €1•164.
Morning all.

Your a lot more positive than I am mickey1122. I sure as hell don't believe the nonsense sp of sub 6 but I have no choice do I? I can't sell, I sure ain't buying so my only option is to shut the F UP!!

Not much fun tracking no hoper stocks like PAT and other miners during the summer months as you will not be able to get an angle on whats going on, which is par for the course. Even if you have been keeping your eye on the daily/wkly moves. It makes zero difference, just check the ytd trades... Whose buying PAT? Nobody since I have been watching, its all been shrewdies selling.

Fair enuff, can't blame investors dumping on a last chance to rescue a few quid from the worst performer among WA miners with little hope the mrkt might see some value at the end of Q3 given the Gold price and anything else you might hope for. As you know Gold at $1900, 2000, 2500, 3000 has zero baring on our investment value here.

The sentiment in PAT has bombed to such an extant that investors have thrown in the towel and whatever the next round of results deliver no'one will be bothered, let alone believe (x) millions ounces will mean zilch and that imo is down to the WGAF attitude by the Board who have completely abandoned investors. Strange to say we need a carrot now and again.

Ask yourself when did MB last come on Proactive Investors to update us? He was a regular back in the day when the shares were 16 and looking half decent. But now?....nowhere to be seen! Mind you I doubt any of us gaf. I have written off my investment as another bum pick of mine hoping the mrkt will reassess our prospects. For God's sake I've no idea why I should believe they would as they rarely oblige!

Five losers this afternoon may have something to do with my negative attitude but I very much doubt it. I know when I'm beat and its right here right now. Please tell me I'm wrong!

Well done metals that's a great return in 4 days! But, are you glued to the computer 247? Jeez these bloody adverts on lse are driving me nuts!

It's a Bitcoin type thing I think....defo not for me. I'll stick to PAT and the horses (4 winners yesterday) and missed a few quid on the RIDDLER (50/1) who posts regularly on Lse...grrrrrr!!

Despite rising inflation Gold remains investors best ally as the Fed struggles to keep the economy from tipping into recession and interest rates sub 4% through next year.

For example while global stock
markets are well down this year Gold has remained steady and has traded between $1670 - $2080 currently $1846. Compare that with the S&P 500 which is off 23%, the 2nd worst performer of the main global indexes.

Where stock markets go from here is anyone's guess but empirically bear mrkts last between 6-9 months and slumps of 20% about once every 6 years lasting c.400 days.

DJ -741 (29,927)
SP -123 (3668)
NS -466 (11,128)
R2 -56 (1087)
WTI $117
10ytb 3•241%

MSCI(W) -66 (2491)
Gold Bugs +4 (245)

Latest: Vix 33. Oil $119.
Gold $1846. Copper $4•095.
Palm $1560. Silver $21•835.
$1•230. €1•169. FF +50. DF +223
Morning all.

Following the Fed's well trailed 75 basis rise in rates to a range of 1•50% to 1•75% with another 75 rise in July, the BOE is expected to raise UK rate by 50 basis to 1•25% this morning.

US mrkts took the news well giving clarity to mrkts and most analysts expect a short relatively mild downturn. The Dow rose but was heading down by close.

DJ +304 (30,669)
SP +55 (3790)
NS +282 (11,594)
R2 +10 (1143)
WTI $116
10ytb 3•325%

MSCI(W) +31 (2557)
Gold Bugs +2 (241)

Latest: Vix 30. Oil $119.
Gold $1832. Copper $4•187.
Palm $1625. Silver $21•650.
$1•215. €1•164. FF +3. DF +30.
Morning all.

The sp is already factoring it in but ways to go...

Agreed LawrenceH, always make your own investment decisions, that way you only have yourself to blame if it goes tits up...and here's the thing treat yourself to a pint or two if it works out well.

The grass is rarely greener....but good luck chasing winners.....

DJ -182 (30,365)
SP -14 (3735)
NS +23 (11,312)
R2 -3 (1133)
WTI $119
10ytb 3•445%

MSCI(W) -19 (2529)
Gold Bugs -6 (239)

Latest: Oil $121. Vix 33.
Gold $1813. Copper $4•175.
Palm $1665. Silver $21•100.
FF +3. DF -27.
Morning all.

Rates could be headed up 75 basis in the US and 50 basis in the UK this week.

Interesting to note that c.42•5% of the S&P index ytd falls are due to just 5 companies. The 500 and Nsdq 100 are now officially in bear territory, 21% and 31% down from 2023 highs.

The Dow and Small caps are close behind off 16% & 19%. A half hearted rally soon petered out in London trading up just 40 at 9:00 am.

The bears are back in town and are looking to break through 25,000 last seen in June 2020. It took just 3 months to break through 20,000 hitting a pandemic low of 18,592 on March 23, 2020. Since then the mrkts bounce back has been astonishing the Dow climbing to 36,800 on Jan 4th, 2022. As we now know that was the Dow's peak.

Much will depend on whether inflation has peaked, rates are coming down, earnings on an upward path and the mrkts past the correction phase. It could be well into 2023/4 before we are out of this mess.

DJ -876 (30,517)
SP -151 (3750)
NS -544 (11,288)
R2 -53 (1137)
WTI $121
10ytb 3•352%

MSCI(W) -97 (2545)
Gold Bugs -17 (245)

Latest: Brent $123. Vix 34.
Copper $4•219. Palm $1530.
Silver $21•165. $1•217. €1•168
FF +43. DF +253.
Morning all.