Member Info for JohnLewis79

MB has a tough job on his hands to get the sp to an attractive level 'pour encourager les autres'. Because at the current exchange rate if we took up our option to increase our interest in Labola from 10% to 30%, would cost us c.£6m not far off our current mrkt value.

As it will no doubt be underwriten it's still a high risk proposition so pis0 need to consider a nos of factors.

a) The details of any likely raise be it via a 'Rights', Placing or other is unknown.

b) the low PAT share price makes a raise unattractive to holders at the moment. That needs addressing ASAP!]

c) Big increase in shares outstanding.

d) fear of being diluted.

Rights Issues are usually priced 'not to fail' ie offered below the current sp to 'get them away' but caveat emptor.

I have experienced two cash calls and neither worked out well. In one case after taking up my allotment the sp fell significantly below the Rights price and never recovered and the other the Co went belly up almost overnight.

Maybe I'll get lucky third time out?

With US inflation hitting 8•3% some say higher and the Fed printing money like there's no tomorrow, its estimated more than $20tn is in circulation up from $4tn not that long ago, is the USD going the way of Zimbabwe?

So, with no off-setting increase in productivity or economic output, how long will it be until were going down the supermarket with a barrel load of cash to buy a loaf of bread?

Wk 20
------
DJ +9 (31,262)
SP +1 (3901)
NS -40 (11,836)
R2 -4 (1172)
WTI $113
10ytb 2•792%

MSCI(W) +4 (2656)
Gold Bugs -1 (256)

Copper $4•301
Gold $1845
Oil $112
Palm $1590
Silver $21•765

$1•249
€1•182
------

Wks
1-20
PAT
-------
Trades 476
T/vol 9•632m
Buys 3•168m
Sells 6•464m
Sells 67%
-------
Wk 20
Cora 7•25 (-23%)
Gold 8•15 (-29%)
Hum 13•25 (-28%)
Orr •25 (-28%)
Pat 7•15 (-43%)
RRR •38 (-29%)
-------

Morning P....I agree re shorting, wholly reprehensible imo. I've never bought into the view that it aids 'price discovery' and I believe it's still very much an open question as to the benefits. Whatever pis might think there's not a cat in hells chance of it ever being banned as the big iis would never allow it.

PAT has been a huge disappointment but tbf investors might have been carried away by the Bhukia 'goldmine' and once that bubble was pricked the stock was only heading one way.

I'm having to accept I called this wrong and regardless of Bassala, Kalaka etc..., I cannot see why the sp should out'perform other WA goldies given the sector is in the s*** house.

And if i cannot see why, it almost certainly will, hence I'm still holding 47% out of the money.

PO export ban lifted much to global mrkts delight. Whatever Widodo was advised to do its backfired! If he wanted CPO lower he's achieved that as the price has tumbled $210 since April.

Looking on the bright side Dr K...

Mrkts are looking much more cheerful this morning as Asian stocks have turned upwards and Wall St is called 200 plus better at open. London after yesterdays sell off is set for a near 100 gain at the bell.

Be good if GMMA could clear 70 setting us up for results due shortly.

DJ -237 (31,253)
SP -23 (3901)
NS -53 (11,876)
R2 -6 (1176)
WTI $111
10ytb 2•842%

MSCI(W) +61 (2701)
Gold Bugs +13 (257)

Stocks in Asia have turned better this morning led by Tokyo (+286) as bargain hunters sought out oversold stocks. While parts of Shanghai (+34) are still under restrictions, covid infections are easing.

Sydney is up 76 on back of miners & techs recouping losses of Thursday and Pan Pacifics are all in the black particularly Jakarta as the Govt have lifted the ban on palm oil exports much to the relief of global mrkts.

Dow futures are calling London up (86) and Wall St (181) better at kick off.

Morning all.

If it was a short that was a brave but foolhardy bet imo especially so close to the results. Good luck if it works out but too racy for my taste.

I had a quick butchers through approx 20 boards of stocks ranging from techs to agri to retail and not one poster was happy with the mrkts view of their Co value. In other words without exception all said their Co was undervalued. Nothing very startling about that.

But, shuuuurely somepins' up as we can't all be wrong, so whose right us or the mrkts? Bit of a heads I'm right, tails your wrong I know but ya gotta wonder why the majority of us believe that to be the case and I'd wager most CEOs agree.

I've been saying this about PAT for yonks and look where we are! In PATs case I'll concede the mrkts are likely right until their wrong, which if im right will be proven soon.

Have steadied after yesterdays wobble on the Street of no shame. The ftse is called 40 down the Dow up 45 (latest) so I think its unlikely we'll see a shake out in GMMA stock. I was hoping to pick a few more up sub 62.

If you go down in the woods today you better not go alone, because today's the day the Teddy bears have their picnic and pickings we're good.

Before you could turn on the light the Dow had slumped 810 points and continued falling as tales of woe from big retailers Target, Amazon, BestBuy and Walmart spooked investors.

As stocks tumbled for one of the bigest declines since March 2020, worries about a looming recession, energy, food costs & supply shortages adding to people's daily bills, investors saw the writing on the wall and headed for the hills.

Talk of mrkts testing pandemic lows of March 2020 would need the Dow to fall another 12,900 points or c.50% from 52 wk highs and that didn't help sentiment. You may not remember but the Dow crashed 11,660 points in a 7 day period during March 2020, bottoming out at 18,592 coincidentally the virus low. By the end of 2020 we were still living with covid but the Dow was back over 30,600.

Dow Futures are calling London off 45 and the DJI 47 higher at open. At the close.
DJ -1165 (31,490) 3•6%
SP -165 (3924) 4%
NS -636 (11,928) 5%
R2 -396 (1182) 3%
WTI $110
10ytb 2•907%

MSCI(W) 2701
Gold Bugs -7 (244)

Morning all.

TBH, I don't know why investors bother with these r****d mrkts where companies reporting good news often see their sp's trashed and bad news?..... well most are past caring or have moved on to the safety of t/bills or low interest savings accounts (10 yr Mogadishu's) are paying •5% for those prepared to chance their arm, if your interested?

Was it always like this? I don't think so, pre big bang when the mrkt dealt face to face on a trading floor these wild gyrations in prices were unheard of and one could negotiate an acceptable price to both parties after a bit of argy'bargy...ie, no 15% spreads or a take it or leave it sod off attitude.

For sure vols were a tiny percentage of current, so perhaps not a fair comparison. I very much doubt being able to short a stock which the big US houses introduced in a big way to their London clients, was in vogue back then even if you knew the mechanics or believed that was an honourable practice to bet on a stock going down.

In fact I knew of a Broker who would never allow clients to short however well appointed. The mere mention of which could find yourself being shown the door by Arfur the burly doorman.

"No sir, we don't do that sort of business here"

I know this for a fact because it was me! Finding myself on the street I soon found a small one man and his dog broker with zero research facilities who were pretty lax when it came to updating one's statements, especially the profitable ones. Their sole aim was to generate commissions while feeding me the line " it'll be better next week Sir" I keep a few hefty losing account statements to remind me of their expertise in relieving me of my money!

It forced me to review my methods, opting to trade through a Northern Broker, okay the Halifax, on a deal only and up front basis. This massively cut down my trades and saved me a fair few quid in bum deals and commissions. For sure dealing nowdays is quick, less expensive and soulless, i might just as well feed the one armed bandits for all the satisfaction i get.

Oh well such is progress in the cut throat mrkts of today. At least I know what I'm up against even if the deck is stacked with 2-7 off suits when it's my turn to bet.
Evening all.

Dr Kaboom, its the "keep the buggers" in the dark syndrome so beloved of the 'dark web'....won't be long before no trades are announced!

A fair bit of speculation going on re the chances of a bid for GMMA. Given Simon To paid considerably more than current I cannot see him agreeing to part with his stock sub 100. Of course he might well try a low ball offer of 80 himself which would be laughed out of court imo. With results imminent GMMA remain a very strong buy.

Morning Rivaldo...the good news keeps on coming, let's hope the mrkt is paying attention!!!

Most of the time when int rates go up the Gold price rises but will this year be an exception?

Fed Chair Powell said monetary policy tightening could become more aggressive, albeit at a slower pace if inflation doesn't come down which they expect to happen in Q4. Current Gold price off $11 at $1808 after $1805.

Despite President Joko Widodo's tough stance on palm oil exports has cost the country hundreds of millions of dollars in lost revenue as the price of the edible oil has remained stubbornly above the desired 14,000 rupiah price which currently trades at R17,300 a litre.

Protests have been staged across the country and smallholder farmers group APKASINDO said since the announcement of the export ban the price of the fruit has dropped 70% below the floor price set by regional authorities and 25% of palm oil mills have ceased buying fruit from independent farmers severely hitting their incomes.

The Rupiah fell to a one year low last week despite an assurance from the Central Bank that it would stabilise the currency. The current ban on exports is costing the country c.$2bn each month it stays in place said Goldman Sachs.

Investors will have to wait for May's data to get a glimpse of the damage that's been done to revenues. Core inflation is running at c.3•5% but is manageable said the Bank.

DJ +431 (32,655)
SP +81 (4089)
NS +321 (12,564)
R2 +36 (1221)
WTI $113
10ytb 2•964%

MSCI(W) +61 (2701)
Gold Bugs +1 (250)

Morning all.