Member Info for JohnLewis79

Indonesia's palm oil export ban is expected to last around 4 weeks due to lack of storage space for surplus oil and increased pressures from buyers to resume shipments.

Typically producers and processors produce twice as much as is consumed domestically. Once tanks are full mills are not able to process the ffbs and the fruit will rot and production drops.

Indonesia holds around 5m tonnes of oil stock out of a capacity of between 7-7mt with an annual domestic usage of c.18mt out of a total 51mt produced.

Dow slumps 809 (2•4%) making a 1172 points drop since last Monday and no better on the Nsdq hitting a 2 yr low. Doesn't bode well for opening exchanges tomorrow with Asia expected to be deeply in the red.

Tokyo led the sell off slumping 650 but recovering and HK & Shanghai trade a few points better after being hammered last week. The ftse is called flat at open and the Dow is expected to bounce 250 clawing back some of last weeks losses.

Banning cpo exports will certainly hurt producers. According to a leading palm oil farmers union expert said it could destroy the lucrative industry. While others say it was a necessary step for wider reform of the industry to devolve control from a handful of conglomerates to small farmers.

Whatever one thing is certain the poorest will be facing higher food costs through rising inflation and 'lay offs' on estates will add to unemployment. London palm shares have taken a beating, REA off 15% this week in response to the global uncertainty of output and prices.

100,000 buy went through at 121, shares unresponsive exactly what one expects these days. Bght in at 98 so must'nt grumble as I'm looking beyond the daily sp ups n' downs.
Good longer term value here and agree with consensus views an undervalued stock.

Hum posts Q1 AISC of $2•2k
(no doubt reducing by year end as production increases) but leading to much gnashing of teeth and disbelief among holders.

I wonder what PATs nos will be when we get round to producing in volume? It's generally accepted that it costs c.$1200 an ounce to pull gold out of the ground (total op costs ÷ gold produced) though I suspect as input costs are rising its likely higher as my $1200 fig is somewhat lagging events.

April 28th will see Indonesia's clampdown come into effect prohibiting exports of palm oil as the country prioritises the domestic mrkt following protests over high food prices.

However their is much scepticism among traders that the ban will hold as it seems the ban will extend to bulk purchases and packaged RDB palm olein only.

Meanwhile the Indonesian Central Bank cuts growth forecasts but holds rates at 3•5%. Cif Rotterdam prices tumbled yesterday to $1665. UK shares of palm oil companies tumbled, MPE tanking 93, REA 9 but bucking the trend Anglo added 46.

Hi LH, I'll entertain all tips re my holding but I think I'll pass on the 1%!
Might buy 1%.......?

Agreed machismo, I'm not even sure why I still hold here. Perhaps it's fear of losing out, but why given what the mrkt has been telling us for ages, i should have jumped ship and swallowed a big loss. Like many I'm loathe to crystalise a loss so hold in ever diminishing hopes of getting my money back.

Still I comfort myself I'm hopeless at forecasting sp's movements so in all likelyhood the shares will rocket up when I and you least expect.

Two late reported trades of 25k (190) and 40k (192) way above current sp skews current pricing. Along with cancelled trades its becoming a major bugbear for investors.

Won't be long before trades don't get reported at all and all trades will be conducted in private among high rollers with inevitable consequences for investors in the real time world.

A determined seller out there dumping tranches of 50k and 75k lots ahead of Court update on 28th?

Indonesia's ban on exports of palm oil from April 28th due to domestic shortages will hit India and other countries badly. The local price has soared from 14k rupiah to 22k rupiah as people stockpile oil.

The ban will mean India will lose c.4mt of palm oil every month coming at the worst possible time of rising costs and inflation. Indonesias supply is impossible to replace and its unlikely Malaysia will be able to fill in due to pandemic induced labour shortages.

Adding to woes palm oil futures soared to their highest level since March. Indos palm oil ban threatens stoking global food inflation. Current cif Rotterdam price $1785.

Yea, it's good and bad in parts and I expect the mrkt to take a dim view. Not sure about Ukraine planting next April but at least we're starting ext planting and need to get a hurry up as I agree the cpo price could come under pressure if China & India cut back. As ever things move at a slow pace but a return to profits is welcome
despite worries what our landlord plans to extract from us in biotaxes etc...Still a hold imo.

A better looking set of nos reported by REA in respect of 2021 trading, which has cont into Q1 (2022).

Revs $192m ($139m)
GP $62•1m
PBT $29•2m
NP $9•3m ($16m L)
Nav $246m
Nav £189m
Nav 430p

Group debt reduced to $176m
(£135m) equates to 307pps or 71% of shareholder funds.

Will the latest fundraise at 7•5 hold? Placings, rights and "shares for the boys" rarely work our well for long'term holders though I hope 7 will be the absolute low.

Too much good news round the corner for us to be stuck at this pathetic price so what's going to move the needle? I get the feeling there is quite a bit of pent up demand lurking beneath the surface. Will Bhukia be the catalyst for a change of sentiment and get the shares off on a decent run, or are our hopes to be dashed again?

Still a solid hold for me and I don't want to be sucking my thumb when the worm turns.

Good to see a bit more interest in MSi yesterday with 16 trades on 15,910 vols. The stock currently 290 is trading at near historic highs (312).

Hi star786 I'm still around but not getting involved in any share trading which is either offering great value or a trap to catch the unwary. Chasing the sp lower is a zero sum game so not attractive to me.

Noted 2 directors of PAT took up the offers to the tune of 100k and 300k. There was never a chance of the placing not getting away at those prices (7•5p) and funding has been secured in the medium term. Outstanding has increased by 14•132m shares to 119•048m.
I should imagine most of us are underwater atm so little point in doing anything unless your brave by averaging down or fed up and jumping ship!

I have done too much of the former and the latter does not appeal. Have a good Easter break all.

Bght in at 278 recently, fed up losing on goldies, lots to like about MSi and it's Defence prospects.

Having been way off a place spot and tossing my tckt, my man found some inspiration to finish t6 and in the money. Rounds off a good betting week for me. Now if only PAT can come good!

As from Monday I'm taking a summer break from posting US mrkt updates in the mornings.

Hi COV had a touch earlier in the week and 3 places yesterday (3rd in the National). One of my better meetings for a change. Both my Masters bets have sunk without trace but sensibly only small ew punts as the bookies rarely offer value.

Are you still in Zam? I retain my half share which is another of my stocks on the rocks. I also returned to REA with a much reduced stake and am making money. Bloody typical when I had a decent lump the stock went nowhere but down. As soon as I quit in frustration REA went from 80 to nearly 200 in a flash.

I still hold PAT. I'm determined not to be shaken out by small lot sellers being obliged by the MMs. Very much in the lap of the Gods where PAT goes from here given WA goldies are not much in favour atm.