Member Info for JohnLewis79

Gold is off $81 from Oct high of $1731 as the 10yr/tb rose above 4% on Friday and the USD hitting a 20 year high. Recent Fed data pointed to rising inflation and hikes in int rates into next year. None of this is good for Gold with Dec futures priced at $1648. Bulls are perplexed the precious metals inability to reach safe havens will see further volatility and weakness in prices.

Aside from this the Japanese Yen is at levels last seen during the Asian crisis and the GBP buffeted by political and financial instability closed at $1•11. Gold is out in the cold as 78% of Wall Streeters polled expect gold to go down next week against 35% of Main Streeters. Next support is at $1615 with $1580 on the horizon.

DJ -404 (29,635)
SP -87 (3583)
NS -342 (10,692)
R2 -26 (1091)
WTI $86
10ytb 4•024%

MSCI(W) -35 (2377)
Gold Bugs -8 (184)

Close:- Vix 32. Brent $91.
Gold $1646. Copper $3•405.
Palm $1005. Silver $18•200.
$1•118. €1•150.
Yen 148. Yuan 7•20.
Morning all.

DJ +828 (30,039)
SP +93 (3670)
NS +248 (11,034)
R2 +28 (1117)
WTI $89
10ytb 3•931%

MSCI(W) +44 (2412)
Gold Bugs -2 (191)

Wall St wrongfooted investors yesterday. After an initial 550 drop on poor inflation data, the mrkt had a dramatic reversal rising over 800 on the session as short covering, buyers of Banks, energy and tech drove the mrkt to close just short of the days high. An above average of 13•4bn was traded, advances outpacing decliners by 2•4:1 on the NYSE.

Headline CPI data rose at an annual pace of 8•2% in Sept higher than expected after the Labour Dept report showed inflation spreading more widely across the economy. Despite unemployment at a 50 yr low the Fed will continue in aggressive tightening mode as the harsh medicine has yet to show results. Most think another 75 basis hike will come in early Nov with rates heading over 4•5% next year.

Latest:- Vix 32. Brent $95.
Gold $1674. Copper $3•487.
Palm $995. Silver $18•955.
$1•132. €1•157.
FF+70. DF +175.
Morning all.

Yea, probably the best one of all that most remember, though I sure don't want it to happen here as I'm trying all the time (one day Rodders).

Was going to add here last week but decided to spread my risk (a joke) with a few MSi as i have been a fan of the stock for some time. It looks an attractive proposition for long-term holders given their spread of businesses especially across the pond.

I have previous in this stock so in no way is this a tip. With my record, best leave well alone unless you see what I see....

Take your point LH but I prefer the..... " I have not failed just found 10,000 ways that won't work.....

DJ -28 (29,211)
SP -12 (3577)
NS -6 (10,786)
R2 -7 (1089)
WTI $87
10ytb 3•921%

MSCI(W) -9 (2368)
Gold Bugs +1 (194)

Wall St failed to hold on to early gains the Dow had been 216 ahead but at close was 28 lower awaiting the crucial consumer price inflation data for any signs that cost pressures are easing. The CPI nos are released today and investors worry that if Sept nos don't show a fall and remain around 8%, stocks firmly in the grip of the bears will continue to fall.

On Friday 4 of the largest US Banks release Q3 earnings nos which are expected to be much weaker as the economy has slowed. Higher interest rates have boosted net income but the jump in borrowing costs have hurt the mortgage and auto loan businesses.

Analysts expect profits at JPM to drop 24%, Citi 32%, WF 17% and GS down 46% as lack of deals in the investment banking sector has dampened activity. The banks will also set aside more to reserves in anticipation of soured loans.

Latest:- Vix 34. Brent $92.
Gold $1670. Copper $3•426.
Palm $1005. Silver $18•950.
$1•108. €1•142.
FF -20. DF +18.
Morning all.

Everyone is talking the GBP down, in fact it's up at €1•114 despite 'her indoors' (not Angela Lansbury) saying there will be no spending cuts.

Doom'sayers assert the NHS is in imminent danger of collapse as it has been for ever and a day, or as long as i can remember for sure, so one day they might get it right....don't hold your breath.

It really doesn't pay to watch the jumped up literati pontificate on financial matters, for they know less than the common sense of Joe Public who know the score 'black hole' or not.

Its no more than game show TV, it fills a day but like chip shop paper easily discarded and rarely are they tested on their forecasts or called to account... not that anyone gives a toss. I sure don't!

Latest on Bido confirm the prospect of drilling next year, another asset in our armoury. My only gripe is the language used which for the most part is unintelligible to me.

Panthera news has ground to a standstill and trading in the stock has suffered accordingly last week just 33,000 changed hands. For a junior gold explorer it's pretty much par for the course at this stage of operations given the challenging background and bearish sentiment of investors in WA and bullion.

This worries me not a bit, much as investors need constant blood transfusions of good news we know the company are on the right track. Panthera recently completed its 4th full year on Aim.

This was confirmed by a successful equity placing and subscription of 14•131m new Ords at 7•5p to fund the Bassala programme. Raising new equity for 'jam tomorrow' tests investor purpose and Panthera have done so without calling on pis to subscribe.

Unfortunately the share price has taken a very dim view of progress seeing a stock bleeding investors of cash for little in return. Don't agree with that view as the negative bias and short'terminism of investors in this space is not unknown.

DJ +36 (29,239)
SP -24 (3589)
NS -136 (10,791)
R2 +3 (1096)
WTI $89
10ytb 3•930%

MSCI(W) -19 (2376)
Gold Bugs -2 (192)

The IMF has downgraded global economic growth warning the world economy is set to see more pain next year. They cut growth projection to
2•7% from 3•3% as around a third of the world economy faces two consecutive quarters of negative growth.

US inflation data from the Fed's September meeting will be released along with retail sales & consumer sentiment nos later this week.

Latest:- Vix 34. Brent $94.
Gold $1669. Copper $3•420.
Palm $1005. Silver $19•180.
$1•100. €1•132.
FF-16. DF+97
Morning all.

DJ -94 (29,209)
SP -27 (3612)
NS -112 (10,927)
R2 u/c (1094)
WTI $91
10ytb 3•998%

MSCI(W) -22 (2396)
Gold Bugs -3 (195)

Asia is lower this morning following weak US mrkts overnight. A fresh outbreak of Covid-19 infections in China is causing lockdowns and travel restrictions. Sentiment is being further damaged due to the escalating Russia-Ukraine war.

The Nikkei is off over 700 after posting a lower than expected current account surplus of 59bn Yen. HK is down 270 but Shanghai sees buyers of distressed property stocks. A negative picture across other Asian exchanges the Taix is off 570 (4%) and SK down 2%.

The brewing chip war between China & the US worsened as Washington has set export controls that limit selling advanced computing & semi conductor equipment to China.

Latest:- Vix 32. Brent $96.
Gold $1665. Copper $3•423.
Palm $995. Silver $19•445.
$1•103. €1•139.
FF-46. DF -160
Morning all.

It's a sea of red nos in Asia & Pacifica this morning after falls on US mrkts on Friday. Global negative cues following stronger than expected US employment data raised concerns for a rate hike of 75 basis in early Nov. Ongoing inflationary pressure is keeping buyers well away from risk assets.

The major exchanges of Hong Kong & Shanghai are all lower in pm trade the Hang Seng down 500 and the SHCOMP off 27. The Nikkei 225 is closed for the "Sports" Day holiday. Elsewhere the benchmark ASX200 fell below the 6700 level led by Gold miners, Oils & Techs.

Gold this morning is down $9 to $1688 as buyers stay on the sidelines. Bearish sentiment has pushed Gold into oversold territory where investors are transfixed watching the USD trade at 20 year highs and investors start to hoard cash.

Some analysts predict if the Fed raises rates to 4•5% the S&P could fall another 20%. That would take the DJI to 23,440 and the 500 to 3570, nos last seen in April 2020 just after the pandemic low. A fall of that magnitude would take the Dow 37% below its all time high.

Latest:- Vix 31. Brent $97.
Gold $1688. Copper $3•401.
Palm $970. Silver $19•780.
$1•108. €1•137.
FF -41. DF -108.
Morning all.

Wk40
Ytd
------
Cora (4•60p) -51%
Glds (5•90p) -49%
Hum (6•75p) -53%
Orr (•16p) -55%
Pat (5•25p) -58%
Rrr (•35p) -33%

Gold ($1702) -7%
Oil ($98) +26%
Cpr ($3•383) -24%
Silv ($20•160) -14%

DJ -630 (29,297)
SP -105 (3640)
NS -446 (11,039)
R2 -27 (1094)
WTI $93
10ytb 3•890%

MSCI(W) -61 (2418)
Gold Bugs -10 (198)

Buying the dips has been a losing strategy so far this year. There have been 4 times that bottom fishers piled in only to see another rally falter and go on to make fresh lows.

Yesterday the Street tumbled after a solid jobs report that increased the likelihood of a 4th straight 75 basis rate hike to 92% as non farm payrolls rose by 263,000 more than forecast. This provided some assurance that the jobs mrkt is strong but the Fed will have to do more to slow the economy.

Despite Friday's nosedive the major indexes posted their first week of gains in 3 weeks. Vol was above average at 11•5bn traded decliners outpacing advances by 6:1. However the indices look horrid the DJI is off 19%, the Small caps 21%, S&P 24% and the Nsdq100 tanking 33% ytd.

Close:- Vix 31. Brent $98.
Gold $1702. Copper $3•383.
Palm $970. Silver $20•160.
$1•109. €1•139.
Yen 145. Yuan7•12.
Morning all.

Fancy your chances in the wild West trading of the ultra fast robots where humans are unable to compete. These automated trades have been responsible for many 'flash' crashes over the years whether by design or by 'fat finger' errors.

Most of us buy and sell on Co fundamentals or place the occasional 'spread bet' but the algos speculate or try to anticipate what everyone else will do before they do it. The desire to know what others are thinking means a lot of second guessing and as the info arrives so fast algorithms can get into trouble if they are monitoring mrkt activity causing massive drops on the exchanges.

One of the bigest shocks came in 2010 when $900bn was wiped off the mrkts value in less than 20 mins triggering fail-safe mechanisms. So what caused the crash? A bungled automated trade dumping thousands of futures contracts in one go was blamed. As was a rumour of Obama being injured in a White House explosion which turned out to be fake. That knocked $136bn of the index. Researchers at the Univ of Miami looked at stock mrkt data between 2006 & 2011 and found thousands of ultrafast extreme events in which a stock crashed or spiked in less than a second.

Confusing matters more was the introduction of automated company earnings reports mimicking Associated Press writing style. That change meant humans are now even more absent from the financial news process, as in press offices algos turn words into prose and on the trading floors the robots turn those words into trading decisions. This can become self fulfilling as sells mount up and the herd follow the action.

The bots are rarely complex or clever, they hope to exploit an advantage before anyone else. Creating successful artificial gamblers is not always a matter of being first but being smart and keeping things simple. And we luddites cont to buy and hold, cannon fodder for the bots and algos.

DJ -347 (29,927)
SP -38 (3745)
NS -88 (11,485)
R2 -6 (1121)
WTI $88
10ytb 3•822%

MSCI(W) -21 (2478)
Gold Bugs +2 (287)

Following an upbeat start to Oct stocks were soon heading down in part due to the jobless nos of first time claimants disappointing, coming in some 16,000 higher than forecast.
On Wall stocks fluctuated all over the place but maintained a negative bias the Dow closed off 347 points, the 500 down 38.

The closely watched Sept monthly jobs report is due today where payrolls will show an increase of 275,000 and unemployment at 3•7%. Its not expected to sway the Fed's determination to keep rates at restrctive levels to slow economic activity.

Cannabis stocks got an unexpected boost when Biden said he would pardon all Federal offences of simple marijuana possession. Canopy and Tilray both penny stocks surged 21% & 11% on the news.

Latest:- Vix 31. Brent $94.
Gold $1718. Copper $3•419.
Palm $970. Silver $20•755.
$1•117. €1•139.
FF-16. DF -48.
Morning all.

DJ -42 (30,274)
SP -8 (3783)
NS -9 (11,573)
R2 -7 (1127)
WTI $88
10ytb 3•747%

MSCI(W) -12 (2500)
Gold Bugs - 3 (205)

The Dow rallied 387 points from days low to close 42 points down at 30,274 as data showed demand for labour remained strong. However this suggests the Fed will keep rates higher for longer as their main objective remains to tame inflation currently 8•3%. Dealers expect another 75 basis hike in November on top of the current 3•00 - 3•25%.

Regardless investors focused on oversold & battered down stocks noting the S&P forward pe/r at 15•8x is close to its historic mean down from 22x earlier this year.

Energy stocks limped ahead as OPEC agreed to cut oil production by c.2m bopd in an already tight mrkt. Brent's 52wk range this year is $66-139. Volume on the NYSE was 10•43m, decliners outnumbered risers by 2:1 and 8/11 major sectors fell on the day.

Latest:- Vix 29. Brent $93.
Gold $1732. Copper $3•571.
Palm $970. Silver $20•850.
$1•135. €1•145.
FF +45. DF +107.
Morning all.

Walls relief rally continued with broad based gains yesterday posting the best two day rally in years of 1590 points. Softer economic data led traders to believe the Fed will temper aggressive rate hikes. The RBA (Australia) surprised mrkts with a much smaller rate hike of just 25 basis.

That helped rate sensitive tech stocks and mega caps jumping on the news of a weaker USD, job openings and slipping yields. Amazon, Msoft, Apple & Goog gaining over 3% each. Banks joined in adding 3% and only 6 stocks on the 500 fell back as advances outpaced decliners by 7:1 on above av vol of 12bn trades.

In 2 weeks the earnings season starts and investors fear any surprises will derail the recent advances which are seen as classic one day moves in an alive and well bear mrkt.

DJ +825 (30,316)
SP +112 (3791)
NS +328 (11,583)
R2 +41 (1135)
WTI $86
10ytb 3•634%

MSCI(W) +82 (2512)
Gold Bugs +4 (208)

Latest: Vix 29. Brent $92.
Gold $1727. Copper $3•509.
Palm $980. Silver $20•920.
$1•143. €1•147.
FF-27. DF -143.
Morning all.

Be interesting to see if the 5p stock price holds underpinning the sp. Daily volumes have fallen off a cliff (60,000) last week which tbf isn't surprising given the recent volatility in world mrkts.

The mrkt knew the company would need to raise finance for day to day running costs but it would have helped investors if they had been more forthcoming re the $18m funding to Labolla promised by DFS. For instance how much is left/required in the Labola kitty that PAT is committed to pay for.

We potentially could have a 30% stake if we subscribe for a 10% back in right for $7•3m (£6•3m) that's more than the current value of the company. The management will have a struggle to convince investors to stump up for more Labola stock let alone anymore Panthera with the mrkt cap at near historic lows. MB is participating to the tune of 500,000 but he was backed into a corner on that one.

Every investor will have to decide if this is a value adding deal or a cynical exercise in shoring up wobbly finances in the hopes there be more gold in 'dem far off hills! Throwing good money after bad, the 'sunk cost' fallacy leads me to believe I'd be making the same mistake over again if i ever get a right to subscribe.

I did it on my Blood thing and I expect I'll do it on my Gold thing.

DJ +765 (29,491)
SP +93 (3678)
NS +259 (11,230)
R2 +28 (1093)
WTI $84
10ytb 3•620%

MSCI(W) +52 (2430)
Gold Bugs +10 (204)

Latest:- Vix 30. Brent 89.
Gold $1709. Copper 3•440.
Palm $900. Silver $20•895.
$1•132. €1•151.
FF+47. DF +220

On Wall St buyers were out in force, stocks moved higher throughout the session ending on a buoyant note. The DJI closed short of session highs up 765 and the S&P gained 93. The hectic buying was due in the main to bargain hunting of oversold stocks. Beaten down Apple rose 3% to $142 sending the Nsdq 259 points higher at 11,230.

T/bill yields tumbled on weak manufacturing data, gold put on $10 and once again energy and oils led the way up as rumours surfaced OPEC are considering a 1m bopd production cut. Vol on the NYSE was 11•6bn, advances led decliners by 5:1.
Morning all.