Member Info for JohnLewis79

Tbh etj7777 i dgaf anymore. Conjecture or not I'm fed up with being taken for a ride by a bunch of shysters.

A mixed to better picture at the start of wk 46 for equities in Asia and Pacifica. Tokyo has started on the wrong foot falling as low as 28,012 as traders booked profits after gaining 1006 points last week.

On Friday the Hang Seng skyrocketed nearly 8% after hitting a 52 wk low (14,957) with gains across all sectors. Alibaba is in demand gaining 12% with Properties and unloved Techs close behind. This morning the market continues to build on those gains bouncing over 3% at the lunch break with 17,750 in sight.

In Sydney Miners and Oils are on buy lists with weakness in Gold led by Newcrest and a 9% plunge in Resolute. Big Banks are off 2% and the Aussie $ trades at $0•699.

Latest:- Vix 23. Brent $95.
Gold $1762. Copper $3•874.
Palm $1120. Silver $21•490.
$1•175. €1•140.
FF +5. DF -108
Morning all.

DJ +32 (33,748)
SP +37 (3993)
NS +211 (11,817)
R2 +7 (1232)
WTI $89
10 ytb 3•819%

MSCI(W) +38 (2674)
Gold Bugs u/c (225)

Close:- Vix 23. Brent $96.
Gold $1774. Copper $3•936.
Palm $1120. Silver $21•795
$1•184. €1•143.
Yen 139
Yuan 7•112
Morning all

The DJI closed at its highest level in c.3 months and the 500 ended up c.6% reflecting a positive reaction to better than expected CPI nos. US annual inflation rate eased to 7•7% and the yield on the 10 yr fell to 3•82%. Investors pray the worst could be over.

All 11 S&P sector indexes rallied on the day the Dow up 1201, the Nsdq jumping 7% and importantly the DJI has recovered 18% from its closing low on Sept 30th, that's 4989 points better. However on the year the Dow still trails by c.7% and the 500 which includes most investors (401ks) is down 17%.

Big risers included Caesars Ent up 18%, Nvidia, Adv Micro & Carnival all topping 14% and big board gainers inc Amzn up 12%, Apple and Msoft +9%. Risers outpaced fallers by 29:1 on the NYSE.

DJ +1201 (33,715)
SP +208 (3956)
NS +808 (11,606)
R2 +68 (1225)
WTI $87
10ytb 3•819%

MSCI(W) +126 (2636)
Gold Bugs +14 (225)

Latest:- Vix 24. Brent $96.
Gold $1765. Copper $3•845.
Palm $1105. Silver $21•815.
$1•171. €1•146.
FF+23. DF +171.
Morning all.

DJ -647 (32,514)
SP -80 (3749)
NS -262 (10,798)
R2 -27 (1157)
WTI $86
10ytb 4•073%

MSCI(W) -45 (2510)
Gold Bugs -4 (211)

Latest:- Vix 26. Brent $93.
Gold $1714. Copper $3•696.
Palm $1122. Silver $21•240.
$1•140. €1•136.
FF-27. DF +55.
Morning all.

While the 3 major indexes were having another very solid day of gains other big name players were coming under the hammer. Ride hailing Lyft fell nearly 24% as current Q revs fell below estimates and became the latest casualty of jittery investors punishing companies that miss forecasts.

Take-two Interactive, the video games publisher fell 14% and TripAdvisor the on line travel Co recovered to close 4% down at $11 after disappointing 3Q results. Amgen the drug maker climbed 6% to a record high of $292 up 30% ytd.

Morgan Stanley sent out a buy note on Apple ($139) which trades on 23x earnings urging buyers to be 'overweight' the stock. Others hit all-time highs these inc Big Mac, Lockheed Martin and Gilead. Going south due to vehicle recalls (power steering glitches) Tesla ($191) closed at a low not seen since 2021. A few days ago Musk sold 19•5m shares worth c.$4bn. In July 2010 Tesla traded at $1•20.

The Dow was headed for the 3rd straight day of gains up over 550 at lunch until a bout of profit taking at mid'day saw the Dow fall to 32,760 before resuming its advance. Ten out of 11 S&P sectors rose, advances outpacing decliners by 2:1 on the NYSE.

As voting began in the crucial mid term elections all 435 House of Representatives and 35 Senate seats are up for grabs. The mrkt views Republican gains as a positive for businesses particularly the Defence sector where spending is almost certain to increase. Initial counts confirm the Republicans are on course to take 198 seats to 176 for the Democrats but in no way is it a 'Red Wave'. Its too close to call in the race for the Senate.

DJ +334 (33,161)
SP +21 (3828)
NS +82 (11,059)
R2 +1 (1184)
WTI $89
10ytb 4•141%

MSCI(W) +21 (2555)
Gold Bugs +13 (214)

Latest :- Vix 26. Brent $95.
Gold $1713. Copper $3•650.
Palm $1180. Silver $21•410.
$1•154. €1•146.
FF-25. DF-100.
Morning.

DJ +424 (32,827)
SP +36 (3807)
NS +120 (10,977)
R2 +11 (1183)
WTI $92.
10ytb 4•222%

MSCI(W) +26 (2534)
Gold Bugs +2 (202)

Wall St turned in a lacklustre performance for much of the session before climbing 250 late in the afternoon to close up 424. Investors expect the period Nov through Jan usually a good time for stocks matches the last (5/6 November months) which have all been winners.

Mid'term election fever is keeping investors on their toes, where Republican candidates are expected to perform well and win a majority in at least one Chamber of Congress and a 50:50 chance of outright control of both houses. A stalemate looks the most likely outcome which will suit Wall St as it acts as a brake on ambitious tax & spending plans.

In Asia traders await the release of US CPI data due out on Thursday. The Nikkei is up c.350 as Banks, techs and exporters are in demand. On the mainland the SHCOMP has slipped back 22 on renewed concerns their 'zero' covid policy is damaging the economy far worse than first feared. Entry by foreign nationals into China remains suspended with no end-date in sight.

Latest:- Vix 24. Brent $98.
Gold $1673. Copper $3•583.
Palm $1145. Silver $20•675.
$1•148. €1•148.
FF -31. DF -1.
Morning all.

Hi Pollack, it's no consolation to me your in a similar position, though its a paper loss only! I guess those of us who are still holding since 2020 or before are all down considerably. We should of course have been following the money/sp instead of slavishly reading bullish glossy RNS reports which painted an entirely different picture.

Can't say we were fools to do so for if you ignore positive RNS data then you best jack it in and buy a ftse tracker. Subsequently events proved us gullible for not going the contrarian route (selling on the news) which would have saved us a lot of money and gnashing of teeth.

The game is by no means over even if the mrkt says "its game set and match" you know as well as I do the shares can turn on a sixpence
leaving sellers bewailing their lack of perseverance. At the moment they have been proved right. I'm betting we may have the last laugh in a place of dying.
Evening all.

Cora Gold (4•25p) valued at c.2•5x Pat has just reported on its Sanankoro Gold prospect in West Africa. The are targeting around 2•30m ounces which may give us a guide as to what we can can expect when PAT release up to date figures.

I dont remember PAT nos over 2 mozs being talked about, more in the region of 1mozs. So we're likely stuck here at 4-5p for the foreseeable unless there is a dramatic turnaround in sentiment or a big uplift in the gold price and I haven't seen any evidence for either. Regrettably pis are deserting the London stock market in droves and that's another huge negative.

I now realise I have dug myself into a deep hole facing further dilution and or a static/declining share price and here's the killer I knew what I was doing. Ok, it was a punt as are most early stage goldies but ignoring the background evidence has been very costly (why would PAT be any different to the others?).

Not sensible to sell now which would incur a 54% loss which i'm loathe to do. It's going to be a very long wait to get anywhere near breakeven.
Perhaps a Black Swan event will come to my rescue? I'm due for one but as they are Australian in origin its unlikely to happen in West Africa.

Asia and Pacifica are all ahead at the start of wk 45 trading. Tokyo closed up 330 led by exporters and a strong earnings outlook for Q4. Resource, energy & commodities are higher across the region. Aussie Gold miners rise around 5% as bullion prices remain steady.

Hong Kong soared 822 on Friday with support across the board especially in Properties following the upbeat lead from the "Street" on Friday. Bargain hunters were piling into oversold stocks. Late in this morning's session the Hang Seng continues its rebound gaining 460 points.

Latest:- Vix 26. Brent $98.
Gold $1677. Copper $3•643.
Palm $1145. Silver $20•643.
$1•133. €1•139.
FF -44. DF -43.
Morning all.

WA Gold
Ytd
----

Cora -55%
Glds -51%
Hum -63%
Orr -65%
PAT -61%
Rrr -27%

Copper -17%
Gold -8%
Oil +27%
Palm -11%
Silver -10%

£$ -16%
£€ -4%

Gold was the star of the week surging to $1686, though many traders said it was a short squeez that drove the
Dec contract up nearly $50 on Friday. That coincided with the USD having its worst day since March 2020.

TD Securities forecast Gold to fall below $1600 in the next few months as it sees Fed Fund rates peaking at 5•5%. Next week's CPI report could be much lower than expected (sub 8%) which would be good for gold to build on last week's rally.

Despite the euphoric mood of investors on Friday the Dow fell 549 on the week the 500 was off 130 points. In contrast the Ftse rose 287 and ytd is less than 1% down versus the S&P down 21%.

DJ +402 (32,403)
SP +51 (3771)
NS +166 (10,857)
R2 +18 (1171)
WTI $93
10ytb 4•164%

Close:- Vix 26. Brent $99.
Gold $1686. Copper $3•700.
Palm $1170. Silver $20•915.
$1•138. €1•143.
Yuan 7•18. Yen 146.
Morning all.

DJ -146 (32,001)
SP -40 (3720)
NS -215 (10,691)
R2 -6 (1154)
WTI $89
10ytb 4•143%

MSCI(W) - 32 (2468)
Gold Bugs -7 (180)

Latest:- Vix 25. Brent $97.
Gold $1649. Copper 3•513.
Palm $1170. Silver $19•750.
$1•122. €1•147.
FF+41. DF+57
Morning all.

C.127pps by year end. None too shabby jc123....

Another excellent add-on to Gama's expanding portfolio of businesses as the company win a 7 year contract (subject to confirmation) for the operation of 4 new air rescue ambulances which more than doubles the size of our fleet.

While the response from investors was muted, no surprise there, the sp is up 34% ytd on a mrkt cap of just £41m. At the interim stage net bank debt is down with cash balances a healthy $39m and credit facilities of $19m.

Gama Aviation has its mojo back and i'm very happy to be invested. I'm expecting more good news before the year end.

The Fed as expected raised rates by 75 basis to 4% and hinted at a slower pace of raises in the months ahead, more a fine tuning than front loading. The news, well trailed saw the Dow steady until late afternoon when rate futures upset mrkts by implying a 50:50 chance of hitting 5% or more next year.

Investors were dismayed when Powell later commented that it was "very premature to consider pausing rate increases, we have ways to go" That sent stocks into a tailspin. Info techs were among the bigest losers, Amzn, Netlix & Meta fell 5%, Salesforce & Tesla down c.6% and big tech laggards inc Msoft, Googl & Apple as a best of session gain of 933 points ended just above the days low.

Gold trading at c $1630 is down 10•4% ytd and has been supplanted by the USD as a safe haven asset. As yields rise this has put downward pressure on the gold stuff. In a year most thought would be a shining example for the price of gold, as all the elements were in place, high inflation, weak stocks and a war. Yet the yellow metal hit by a strong USD and high rates has diminished Golds allure to investors.

However VanEck calculates the mining industry average AISC + production, admin and expo costs are c.$1250, so at current gold is still making c.$400 on every ounce, a 24% gross margin so not too shabby unless your in WA gold.

DJ -505 (32,148)
SP -96 (3760)
NS -383 (10,906)
R2 -41 (1160)
WTI $89
10ytb 4•105%

MSCI(W) -47 (2500)
Gold Bugs -12 (187)

Latest:- Vix 26. Brent $96.
Gold $1639. Copper $3•458.
Palm $1160. Silver $19•365.
$1•141. €1•161.
FF -42. DF +71
Morning all.

DJ -80 (32,653)
SP -16 (3856)
NS -117 (11,289)
R2 +5 (1201)
WTI $90
10ytb 4•052%

On a day when the mrkt moved up then sideways for the rest of the day, stocks ended the session on a negative note the Dow slipping 80 points. Yet company 3Q nos continue to beat Walls forecasts the latest from Pfizer & Uber pleasing investors.

Job openings in Sept showed a resilient labour mrkt with 10•7m vacancies. Another way to view the latest nos there are 1•9m vacancies for every person seeking work. It seems anytime you get good news it means the Fed will be tightening more and for longer very much in the "bad news is good news cycle"......so more a pause than a pivot.

Its expected the Fed will hike by 75 basis today and 50 in Nov, not helping companies grappling with rising rates, high inflation and a strong USD.

Latest:- Vix 26. Brent $96.
Gold $1653. Copper $3•500.
Palm $1120. Silver $19•635.
$1•151. €1•165.
FF+15. DF +54
Morning all.

DJ -128 (32,733)
SP -29 (3872)
NS -141 (11,406)
R2 -1 (1196)
WTI $87
10ytb 4•025%

US equities made a huge comeback in October, the DJI climbing 14% its best month since 1976. Despite a mixed 3Q earnings season, slowing growth and major disappointments from Meta and Amazon many traders scrambled to close short positions as the mrkt snapped a 2 month losing streak.

The S&P gained a creditable 8% and the small caps jumped 12% on the month. However the Nsdq 100 underperformed badly, adding only 4% having been the runaway leader for most of 2021/2 hitting a record high of 16,765 some 5360 points more than current.

Today the Fed meet to discuss the way forward on rates widely expected to be raised by 75 basis on Wed. Traders will be looking for any sign the FOMC might pause or reduce their size next year. Mrkts will also have to digest the Oct jobs report on Friday.

Latest:- Vix 26. Brent $94.
Gold $1645. Copper $3•424.
Palm $1120. Silver $19•385.
$1•151. €1•161.
FF +48. DF +153.
Morning all.

Mrkts across Asia & Pacifica are trading higher this morning following Fridays surge on Wall. Dealers are hoping the Fed will slow the pace of rate hikes in the Dec/Jan months by 50 & 25 basis as inflation is expected to ease, whether to the preferred rate of 2%-3% is questionable.

Solid earnings nos from a raft of Nsdq tech stocks boosted the 225. Unfortunately Japan's software sector has fallen far behind its competitors. No doubt in the 1970s Japan was already in the 1990s thanx to its hardware sector but in the 2020s Japan is still stuck in the 1990s.

The Nikkei 225 closed up 482 with Exporters to the fore as Japan maintains its ultra low stance on rates. Underlying sentiment was boosted on news of Japan's value of industrial production was up 10% in Sept with retail sales gaining 1% as Stores return to normal activity.

Australia the largest stock mrkt outside of Asia valued at 1•74tn closed up 78 as dealers expect the RBA to ease rates next week. Oil & mining stocks are ahead but Gold lags around $1645 eying support at $1620.

Latest:- Brent $93. Gold $1645 Copper $3•387. Palm $1075.
Silver $19•095.
$1•160. €1•166
FF +11. DF-43.
Morning all.

DJ +829 (32,862)
SP +94 (3901)
NS +355 (11,546)
R2 +25 (1197)
WTI $88
10ytb 4•016%

MSCI(W) +37 (2561)
Gold Bugs -1 (199)

Close :- Vix 26. Brent $94.
Gold $1648. Copper $3•432.
Palm $1075. Silver $19•200.
$1•162. €1•166.
Yen 149. Yuan 7•22.

Wall St ended with a strong rally on Friday led by techs, the 3 major
indexes gaining c.2•7% on encouraging economic data and earnings results turning out to be better than expected. Risk appetite is back on investors menus.

This encouraged buyers of selected tech stocks, Apple jumped $11 to close up 6% on the week at $156. In contrast Amazon remained on sell lists shedding another $7 to close the week down $17 at $104 after Bezos warned traders to "batten down the hatches". Investors fear a winter of discontent for the shares which trade c.40% down this year.

Its expected the Fed will hike rates by 75 basis next week the 4th in a row. Despite signs the economy is being hurt by these relentless rises traders cont to think the Fed is winning the war on inflation and will ease back next year.
Morning all.