Member Info for JohnLewis79

DJ -330 (29,261)
SP -38 (3655)
NS -57 (11,254)
R2 -16 (1064)
WTI $77
10ytb 3•881%

MSCI(W) -30 (2408)
Gold Bugs -4 (176)

Latest:- Vix 32. Brent $83.
Gold $1638. Copper $3•303.
Palm $1000. Silver $18•495.
$1•078. €1•118.
FF+32. DF+168.
Morning all.

Is the Govt planning an emergency rate increase to shore up the GBP?
Next step might be the IMF knocking on the BOE door?

UK Defence spend to double to £100bn by 2030 as the Govt commit to increase the Armed Forces budget to 3% of GDP. In real terms the increase is equivalent to c.£23bn.

Artillery and anti-drone warfare are expected to be beneficiaries which with some luck MSi will be on the preferred list of suppliers. Potential banana skins could be Labour win the next election and many Defence projects are cancelled.

Let's hope MSi have plenty of work in the pipeline from the US military as Wallace talks the talk but may not walk the walk in UK terms. Next update won't be until early Dec so barring any sp news required to be reported to mrkts, we are likely to track mrkt sentiment for the foreseeable.

There's no respite for mrkts this morning Japan is sharply lower extending Thursdays losses after the holiday on Friday. The 225 is down c.2•5 % (680) at lunchtime as Autos, Banks & Techs are among the major losers. Other big names posting declines of 6% inc Mazda, Kawasaki & Fujikura. Despite the Manufacturing sector continuing to expand in Sept investors dont want to know, buy in haste you will have plenty of time to be sorry later is the prevailing sentiment.

Hong Kong which recently hit an 11 year low saw buyers return picking up oversold stocks as did mainland investors. Both mrkts opening higher but with little conviction fearing another sell off on Wall.

In Sydney the ASX is down 78, a 3 month low as investors dump commodities and energy counters. Gold is trading at near 2•5 year lows as the USD and t/bill yields go higher driving investors away from the non productive asset. Crude heads below $85 as analysts urge long'term investors to buy at these distressed levels.

Latest:- Vix 30. Brent $84.
Gold $1645. Copper $3•302.
Palm $1000. Silver $18•525.
$1•054. €1•094.
FF +37. DF-163.
Morning all.

A cruel day on the mrkts saw the DJI fall 827 at its worst and narrowly evading bear territory (20% off high) by days close. To many observers the mrkts are in very much oversold conditions. Today was the 4th consecutive day of falls the Index tumbling 1232 on the week as many big caps hit multi year lows. Investor sentiment is at its worst since 2008.

Bad as this week has been the DJI is down 19%, the S&P off 23% and the Nsdq 31%, its way above the pandemic lows of March 2020 when the DJI hit 18,582. However its not total Armegeddon as a poll of analysts by Fact Set forecast a turnaround of 26% for mrkts next year.

Bond yields keep making new highs the 2yr at 4•172%, it was 0•3% a year ago & the 10ytb at 3•688%. Gold fell to $1644 as sellers yank money out of gold funds. The big risk being a drop below $1600 which could see a big increase in margin calls as long positions can't be extended. Support is seen at $1540.

The GBP fell to $1•08 (20% down on the USD) its lowest level since 1985 as the ftse sank 141 points (218 on wk) closing just above 7000. A mini emergency budget (no red box) went down like a led balloon at the scale of the tax cuts equating to c.£45bn giveaway. The dash for growth may have been derailed already.

WTI closed at $79 with Brent finding buyers at $86. However it was a terrible week for the 'black' stuff hitting an 8 month low as global growth concerns hit panic mode. A strong USD reduces demand for oil particularly in China where lockdowns have severely restricted travel. However the oil sector is still one of only two showing gains this year.

At close
DJ -486 (29,590)
SP -65 (3693)
NS -190 (11,311)
R2 -25 (1081)
WTI $79
10ytb 3•688%

MSCI(W) -51 (2438)
Gold Bugs -10 (180)

Close:- Vix 30. Brent $86.
Gold $1644. Copper $3•348.
Palm $1040. Silver $18•835.
$1•085. €1•119.
Morning all.

DJ -107 (30,077)
SP -32 (3758)
NS -136 (11,502)
R2 -24 (1106)
WTI $83
10ytb 3•715%

MSCI(W) -27 (2489)
Gold Bugs -1 (190)

Latest:- Vix 27. Brent $89.
Gold $1676. Copper $3•440.
Palm $1040. Silver $19•570.
$1•123. €1•143.
FF+12. DF -52.
Morning all.

Less than 12,000 traded says it all imo. These days vols and bargains dealt are so much less than days gone by its a wonder the stock is still quoted except on a charitable basis for the odd seller fed up they didn't bale out higher up the food chain and needs to cash out.

The mrkt cannot be much bothered so I certainly am not going to delve into the nos suffice to say they seem okish.
One thing I'm certain of 180 won't be revisited in my lifetime. Thank you and goodnight.

DJ -522 (30,184)
SP -66 (3790)
NS -214 (11,638)
R2 -13 (1129)
WTI $83
10ytb 3•548%

MSCI(W) -37 (2517)
Gold Bugs u/c (190)

As expected rates rose 75bps for the 5th time this year and now at a 15 year high. Traders think the Fed will cont to aggressively hike rates by another 125 bps for the remainder of the year potentially hitting 4•5% -5•0% before ending its tightening regime. One is led to assume the Fed will have inflation under control by then, many think they won't.

The Dow traded flat most of the day around the unchanged line having been over 300 points better earlier but at 3pm took fright tumbling to 30,184 the closing low of the session. Traders see no respite for the mrkts this morning calling London down 64 and the Dow 85 points lower.

Latest:- Vix 28. Brent $90.
Gold $1661. Copper $3•463.
Palm $1065. Silver $19•390.
$1•124. €1•144.
FF-62. DF-76.
Morning all.

DJ -313 (30,706)
SP -44 (3586)
NS -102 (11,852)
R2 -14 (1143)
WTI $84
10ytb 3•556%

MSCI(W) -26 (2554)
Gold Bugs -6 (190)

Global mrkts overnight set the tone for Asia & Pacifica stocks this morning which are down across the board. Traders await the Fed rate decision today which is expected to see a hike of 75bps and an outside chance of 100bps.

That's in stark contrast to the ultra low BOJ key short term rates maintained at (-0•1%). Japan's inflation rate rose to 3% in Aug as the BOJ cut its growth forecast to 2•4% from 2•9%.

Latest:- Vix 27. Brent $91.
Gold $1670. Copper $3•508.
Palm $1065. Silver $19•340.
$1•138. €1•142.
FF+2. DF +18.
Morning all.

DJ +197 (31,020)
SP +27 (3900)
NS +92 (11,953)
R2 +12 (1157)
WTI $86
10ytb 3•485%

MSCI(W) +11 (2581)
Gold Bugs +5 (196)

Latest:- Vix 26. Brent $92.
Gold $1682. Copper $3•537.
Palm $1045. Silver $19•510.
$1•142. €1•140.
FF+29. DF+47.
Morning all

Little movement this morning in Asia. Tokyo which is usually the barometer for SE Asian stock movements is closed.
With US mrkts performing poorly on Friday investors in Asia turned sellers. Shanghai is flat having lost over 4% (last 3 sessions) as property, financials and resource stocks were sold. HK is down 180 reacting to 2 days of falls and trades 20% down ytd.

Gold eased $5 to $1677 in early trade (18•0k) contracts) after slumping $80 last week falling as low as $1661 the lowest since April 2020. Strength in the US economy removes the 'safe haven' appeal from gold also hit by USD strength and fear of more rate rises. A 100bps hike this week could see gold breaking through $1600. Bulls of gold still wait the breakout on hopes inflation and the USD ease.

Latest:- Vix 26. Brent $92.
Gold $1677. Copper $3•520.
Palm $1060. Silver $19•430.
$1•140. €1•140.
10ytb 3•452%.
DF -35.
Morning all.

Wk 37
Close
PAT
------
Trades 745
Vols 19•596m
Buys 6•585m
Sells 13•011m
Sells 66%

Cora -49%
Glds -33%
Hum -51%
Orr -36%
Pat -59%
Rrr -5%

Copper -21%
Gold -8%
Oil +17%
Palm -20%
Silver -16%

£$ -16%
£€ -4%
10ytb +194%
--------

DJ -139 (30,822)
SP -28 (3873)
NS -66 (11861)
R2 -7 (1149)
WTI $85
10ytb 3•453%

MSCI(W) -23 (2569)
Gold Bugs +2 (191)

Close:- Vix 26. Brent $92.
Gold $1684. Copper $3•541.
Palm $1060. Silver $19•615.
$1•142. €1•140.
Morning all.

DJ -173 (30,962)
SP -45 (3901)
NS -207 (11,927)
R2 -10 (1152)
WTI $85
10ytb 3•459%

MSCI(W) -26 (2592)
Gold Bugs -6 (189)

It's red nos across the Far East and Pacifica trailing Wall's poor performance yesterday where stocks fluctuated over the course of the session, off'setting Wednesdays gains.
Major news saw the Chinese Central Bank leave rates unchanged at 2•75%.

Of the major Asian mrkts the Nikkei 225 opened down 350 dragged lower by techs the depreciating Yen, high inflation, rising rates and slowing global growth. HK (-81) & Shanghai (-31) are modestly lower on local factors.

Gold failed to hold $1700 triggering sell stops as investors headed into cash. Bullies of gold are nowhere to be seen these last 6 months as the gold stuff has devalued by c.20% and the Fed's efforts to contain inflation has not been very successful, a 1•2% drop is barely noticeable to the American consumer.

Latest:- Vix 26. Brent $91.
Gold $1665. Copper $3•471.
Palm $1045. Silver $19•150.
$1•145. €1•146.
FF-48. DF-188.
Morning all.

DJ +30 (31,135)
SP +13 (3946)
NS +101 (12,134)
R2 u/c (1170)
WTI $89
10ytb 3•425%

MSCI(W) -2 (2618)
Gold Bugs +1 (195

Latest:- Vix 26. Brent $94.
Gold $1697. Copper $3•549.
Palm $1080. Silver $19•510.
$1•153. €1•156.
FF+28. DF+17.
Morning all.

A grim CPI report for August came in hotter than expected especially concerning food prices which have soared 11•4% this last year, despite the overall pace of inflation (8•3%) slowing for the 2nd successive month. Yet its not total gloom and doom as many parts of the US economy remain strong notably the jobs mrkt.

By the close the DJI was down 1276 points with the tech heavy NSDQ off 706 and less than a handful of the 500 (-178) were in positive territory. Intel, Msoft and Apple were all over 6% lower Boeing tumbled 7% and Fbk (Meta) fell 9%. Techs, retailers and Banks will be the hardest hit if the Fed continues aggressively raising rates to get inflation under control. The slump in equities took the Dow down to the June 2020 level and its bigest one day fall in 2 years.

The CPI report was unequivocally a downer for equities leaving the Dow down 14%, the S&P off 17% and the Nsdq 100 lower by 26% ytd. This dented optimism that the Fed might roll back on 75 basis rate hikes.

Stocks in Asia have followed Wall's lead but nowhere near bad as initially thought. Futures see the ftse off 50 and the Dow up 72 at open.

DJ -1276 (31,105)
SP - 178 (3933)
NS - 706 (12,034)
R2 - 47 (1162)
WTI $88
10ytb 3•444%

MSCI(W) - 100 (2619)
Gold Bugs -7 (195)

Latest:- Vix 27. Brent $93.
Gold $1714. Copper $3•542.
Palm $1080. Silver $19•345.
$1•151. €1•152.
FF -54. DF +64
Morning all.

Pollack, we'll do that if the sp ever hits 6!....

I see little point in the company issuing a statement regarding the near 30% falls of recent days. The mrkt has chosen to ignore the updates from Panthera. So be it. I have to ask, does the mrkt know better than the Management?

To me it's another opportunity to add to a ridiculously low priced stock. For sure you have to be a believer and try and assess how far the Jobbers can drive this stock down...outside of to zero.

My guess probably 2 or thereabouts as the shorters are in full control, which makes adding now very high risk. Soon people will be saying "there's risk, very high risk, and then there's Panthera.

So, a flip of the coin, down to 2 or a bounce from here? Wish I knew but I favour a bounce and will top up anywhere near 4, if not before....yet again!

DJ +230 (32,381)
SP +43 (4110)
NS +151 (12,740)
R2 +15 (1209)
WTI $88
10ytb 3•341%

MSCI(W) +36 (2719)
Gold Bugs +3 (202)

Latest:- Vix 24. Brent $94.
Gold $1732. Copper $3•613.
Palm $1075. Silver $19•605.
$1•169. €1•15
FF -18. DF +1.
Morning all.

Yea, i remember the expression very well. But worth noting Mr Twain was a poor businessman and almost went broke chasing gold stocks, so I'm in good company!

Actually that's a porkie pie it was railroad stocks (never let the truth get in the way of a good story).

He also said, "all you need is ignorance and confidence then success is assured." That sure
applies to me so fingers crossed he was right.