Member Info for johnhume

GG,
I, more than anyone here, hope I am well out on the weeping etc. Looking at the 6/22 figs for both banks and 11/22 update for BIRG I am not confident mkt expectations will be met.
BIRG's 6/22 PBT figure down 10% on 6/21 - PAT figure down over 18% on 6/21 (down 22% using 6/21 as base figure).
AIB CET 1 ratio= 16.6% BIRG =16% (appreciate tiny diff but BIRG inferior).AIB 350,000 new accs in 6/22 ( up 82%) v 245000 new BIRG a/cs in 9/22 ( up 100%.Remains to be seen how many additional accs will cross over between 9/22 and 3/23 .NPEs almost identical for both banks.
AIB forecast NIM to increase by 15% in 2022 v 10% with BIRG.

I see The Donkey is back to his IDIOTIC self and posting to himself. Idiot doesn't realise that Dividend only declared at AGM end of May with nothing to be said on the Ides of March. Over €11 certain - certainly hope so.
In recognition of his services to this board he is overdue another rendering of "Ode To a Donkey".

strange goings on with BIRG.
at 16.45 a trade of 9.65 shown here but now finishes at 9.21 !

DT
just flipping through Google site today and came across this message from the £soothsayers" in Motley fool extolling the virtues of Microsoft, saying if you invested $1000 in Microsoft on 10/1/2001 you would have $8690 today-gain of 760% in 22 years. The fools dont appear to realise you would have done the same with BIRG in 2.5 years. just proves they are aptly named.

wbl
very good call on your part.I feel that the sp run into the NY and beyond may be at an end but the next week will tell.
as already posted if mkt expectations not met on the ides of March there will be weeping and gnashing of tears on this board.SP could revert to below €8 but could present a buy back opportunity,if only to avail of divs couple of months later.do not put your gains into Unidentified Flying Objects - you'd be better off gambling your winnings on the Donkey in his upcoming Derby.

Ispania,
no short answer but would like to see what the PAT figure will be.
The 6/22 PAT figure down 22% on 6/21 so I hope all sections are firing on all cylinders for the 2nd half of the year.
Div/Buy back last year c 10c in total so would like to see a minimum of 15c this year. 20c is a doubling of last year and might be too optimistic but solid pat figure could see 20c payout.

according to BIRG Investor Relations BIRG's top SP was €18.65 on 21/2/2007.
Also according to their Investor R the Group Tangible NAV as at 30/6/2022 was €9.22 while the NAV figure at 30/6/2022 = €10.34.
Any dividend for y/y 2022 will be declared at AGM end of May.
Following are most recent data in public domain relating to BIRG and AIB.
BIRG. h/y results as at 30/ 6/2022.
PBT = 419 million...... June 2021 = 465 million.
PAT = 279 million. June 2021 = 341 million.
comments on NII etc etc but moving forward to statement released in November 2022 reflecting position as at 30/9/2022.
all depts performing in line with expectations. 245,000 new accounts ,current and deposit representing 90% uplift on2021.
Expect NII to increase by 6-7% over 2021. This figure subsequently increased to 10% in December 2022.
nett lending in 9 mths to 9/22 up 1.9 Billion in retail Irl and corp markets. 3Bn deleveraging in uk.
NPE ratio reduced to 3.7% on completion of current transactions.
operating expenses,excluding Davy, down 1% on 2021. Reported costs up 5%.
NII 3% higher to 9/22 v 9/21. Business income up 14%.
Re Bonds etc nett position of of additional gains/valuation items is loss of 30 million in yr to 9/22.
Group liquid assets = 55Bn -up 5bn from 12/21.
Basic EPS from continuing operations is 0.226 v 0.282 in 2021.

AIB; only figs etc from 6/22 results as nothing further to hand.
PBT = 537 million ; 291 million in June 2021.
PAT = 477 million ; 224 million in June 2021.
10% increase in NII in 6/22. NII expected to grow by 15% in 2022.
NPE reduced to 2.4Bn or 3.9% of gross loans.
new lending of 9 Bn - up 25% with nett loans of 57.1 Bn.
350,000 new accounts - increase of 82% on previous year.
expect other income of 700million in year 2022.

what is purpose of your post?

DT,
see Ryanair now heading for €15 today. should lock passengers in the corridors more often.

wonder why 160 million passengers, including yourself,fly Ryanair.
If you consider them the pits why fly Ryanair. Have you any pride ?

Ashton/J2,
I agree that €10 is achievable in run up to final results, with current sp within 5% of this figure. Cannot see Davy TP of €12plus being achieved in near future or even in 2023 unless 7 march figs are exceptional and nothing in the public domain indicates they will be exceptional.
People should remember that the market takes away as quickly as it gives and very often takes back more. BIRG on an extraordinary roll since september and if the market's expectations are not met on 7 march you WILL see a retracing in BIRG SP. Unless you believe in all eggs in 1 basket sensible investor will take profit if sp hits €10 in coming week/s.

corrections to comparisons ;
Santander 5 yr high = 5.80 and curr sp = 3.05 representing discount of 90% on crr sp and 47% on 5 yr high figure.
Intesa SP 5 yr high figure = 3.15 and curr sp = 2.23 representing discount of 41% on curr sp and 29% on 5 yr high.

JB,
160 million passengers flew with Ryanair in 2022 with that figure expected to increase to over 170 million in 2023.A PAT figure of 1.45 bn is an added bonus.
Do you realise that 40% of the EU population of 447 million fly Ryanair based on 2023 projection.
I appreciate from your posting history you liken yourself to God but ,If you don't mind I will run, sorry fly, with the 40% EU populace on this one.

IR,
I would imagine the Brexit effect was factored in the BIRG and AIB lowest figures of €1.32 and 0,80 respectively.
I would have thought that Brexit would have affected BIRG and AIB fairly equally but the BIRG price has rebounded 722% against 480% for AIB. The removal of the Govt stake would contribute to the better BIRG differential.
I consider it striking the similarity between AIB and UK and European Banks , with a couple of exceptions, in the high and current sp %age differences over the 5 year period compared to BIRG. If you take an average 20% discount figure for the 9 other banks allied to BIRG 30% appreciation you have the guts of a 50% differential.
While BIRG today and BIRG of 2018 may be considered 2 different companies the very same can be said of AIB with the current govt stake the only difference.

ffs Observe you are not allowed to mention the profit you make here !

who says it is comedy ?
As regards the " experts" and the 5 year viewpoint-let's examine it.
BNP 5 year high was €67 and now trading at€59.11 which represents a discount of 14% using curr sp or 12% using 2018 fig.
Deutsche 5 yr high = 15.33 and curr = 11.6 representing a discount of 32% on curr sp and 25% on 2018 fig-all time high.
Santander 5 yr high = 5.80 and curr = 2.23 representing a discount of 41% on curr sp and 29% on 2018 high figure.
Intesa 5 yr high = 5.80 and curr sp = 2.23 representing a discount of 41% on curr sp or 29% on high figure.
Barclays 5 yr high = 213p and curr sp = 172p representing a discount of 23% on curr sp or 20% on high figure.
HSBC 5 yr high = 770p and curr sp = 563p representing a discount of 37% on curr sp or 27% on high figure.
Lloyds 5 yr high = 71p and curr sp = 47.95p representing a discount of 48% on curr sp or 33% on high figure.
Nat West 5 yr high = 315p and curr sp = 279p representing a discount of 15% on curr sp and 13% on high figure.

AIB 5 yr high was 5.60 in 1 2018 and curr = 3.84 representing discount of 46% on curr sp and 32% on high figure.
BIRG 5 yr high = 7.28 and curr. sp = 9.52 representing APPRECIATION of 31% on original 2018 high figure.
According to my eyesight the only share totally and utterly out of sync here is our beloved BIRG.
Above figs make strong case for transferring allegiance to AIB from BIRG.
AIB strongly mirrors the UK/Europe performance over last 5 years while BIRG is the polar opposite.

JB
provide me with proof that Ryanair is "the pits" or is this just your biased opinion.

"Are you bitter because you took Observe advise......you dumped a load around 7.50. Happy Days."
YOU are the one who displayed the ignorance of expressing on a public board a SP you assumed a fellow poster sold out with the obvious joy of "mocking " his alleged loss.
Delighted to see that my "putting the record straight" reply has raised your blood pressure levels,hopefully not to life threatening levels.
Any truth in the rumour you have circulated your CV to The Economist and the LSE. I assume you haven't forwarded it to Davy's or Goodbody's as that would be a serious undermining of your talents.
I also assume you had the intelligence to remove from your CV any reference to your cynical characteristics.

migrants have brought Bank of Ukraine to Ireland

fyi sold lots of 2500 each @8.50/8.60/8.7 but still have 40000 in back pocket which will be very much lighter if/when BIRG hits €10.
When examining a stock's sp it is a very foolish investor who ignores what is going on industry wide which in this case includes the UK and the Continent. The following are some facts for you to digest, if your "boring" hours allow, the content which I am sure even Cooking should find interesting . They relate to the relative performances of competitors to BIRG/AIB over last 5 years.
BNP Paribas. curr sp=€59.11.Low sp in 5 yrs = 24.74. p/e =7.43 . div yd =6.21%. %growth from 5 yr low to curr sp = 139%.
Deutsche Bk.curr sp =€11.60.low sp in 5 yrs = 5.11. p/e = 7.19. div yd = 1.72%.% growth from 5 yr low to curr sp = 127%.
Bank Santander; cur.sp =€3.05 low sp 5 yrs = €1.49.p/e = 5.36. div yd = 3.6%. growth from 5 yr low to curr sp = 105%.
Intesa San Paolo;curr sp=€2.23.low sp in 5 yrs =€1.38; p/e =12.40.div yd=6.8% growth from 5 yr low to curr sp = 61%

Barclays curr sp = 172.29p. low sp in 5 yrs = 80.24p.p/e = 5.62 .div yd = 3.63%.growth from 5 yr low to high = 115%.
Lloyds Bk curr sp = 47.95p low sp in 5 yrs = 24.72p.p/e = 7.93. div yd=4.44%. growth from 5 yr low to high = 94%.
HSBC Bk. curr sp = 563.2p. low sp in 5 yrs = 283p. p/e = 11.08.div yd = 3.85% growth from5 yr low to high = 99%.
Nat West. curr sp = 279p. low sp in 5 yrs = 113p. p/e = 9.8. div yd = 4.04%. growth from 5 yr low to high =147%.

BIRG ; curr sp = €9.52 low sp in 5 yrs = €1.32. p/e = 11.12 div yd = 0.53%. growth from 5 yr low to high = 722%
AIB. curr sp = €3.84 low sp in 5 yrs = €0.80. p/e = 12.19. div yd = 0.01%. growth from 5 yr low to high = 480%.
Appreciate that Irish Banks more severely hit in financial crisis than european counterparts but UK banks were hit ptretty hard. The contrast in the gigantic growth experienced by the Irish Banks in last 5 years to the remaining banks is staggering.
Should BIRG achieve €10 in it's current run this will represent an increase of over 57% over last 3 months. Such an increase in that time period is unprecedented in financial industry - this is associated with exploration. Couple of months ago Cooking was crying from the rooftops about the stupidity of Brokers T Ps and the naivity of people quoting them. A €10 sp will be exceeding a number of Brokers TPs !
Should BIRG SP race through €10 a rational person could be entitled to draw a number of conclusions ;
- the end of September valuation of 7Bn is undervalued if a January valuation of 11 Bn is justified.
-the January valuation of 11Bn is overvalued if the end of September valuation is justified.
Besides Cooking historic news , perhaps the market is privy to news yet to hit the marketplace such as Government plans to exempt Irish Banks from future taxation or perhaps the 70,000 Ukrainian migrants have brought the Bank of

Cooking,
"I thought you didn't know " can you clarify
the news in your 16.46 post appears to be as old as yourself and it's sole relevance going forward is that profits arising from both acquisitions exceeds market forecasts.If actual profits exceed expectations SP moves ahead. If not watch out. As regards KBC you will be waiting some time on this as profits only arise in 2023.
Xmas / N Year rally is historic and very well documented. Thankfully I am able to read.
Do not underestimate the departure of an Investor with the Influence of Blackrock. I appreciate Cooking you may have deep pockets and take out Blackrock's shareholding but you definitely would not have it's influence, most especially if Investors latch on to this Board.
Observe has his own opinions which he backs up with solid independent information and he is entitled to his opinions especially when supported by public financial facts. He doesn't go down the emotional drivel route.
You had better get back to your valium.