Member Info for johnhume

I agree that the more important aspect of the 7 March figures may well be the comments from management on how well the KBC acquisition is bedding in but I feel that 7 March is too early for meaningful comments to be made on this bearing in mind the acquisition is only finalised today and guidance on this may have to be deferred to release of half yearly figures in late summer. Goes without saying that earnings growth a huge factor in determining SP as per Gordon Dividend model but if 2022 PBT figure is in the 1.1/1.2Bn ball park I feel there will be post figures release reaction and would not be surprised to see SP retreating to the €8/8.50 level in the short term before recovering in the run up to ex div date. A sizeable div declaration of 25c plus might temper the retreat.

is the CF figure of 1.1 Bn before or after tax? A div of c 18c is realistic. CF have not been a fan of BIRG for some tome stating them to be overvalued at current levels with their TP around 9.90...
@ Joxer - I agree and would like to see SP up around €10 on morning of 7 March. you didn't mention what your SP figure following release of results.
In 2020 BIRG reported a loss of 776 mill and on the 28 February 2022 reported a PBT figure of 1.4Bn - an impressive performance in anyone's language. BIRG SP on 24 February 2022 was 5.52 ; on morning of 28 February was 5.91 ; on 2 March SP was 5.65 and 5.04 on 7 March - 15% drop in 1 week from publication of what I would consider excellent results. SP recovered from mid march but very volatile -6.67 mid april and down to 5.38 in May. Recovery from over €6 didn't really commence until August.
Following results of 1.4 Bn PBT on 28/2/22gives a capitalisation value of 5.5 Bn on 7 March 22 what capitalisation value do you place on BIRG as at 7 march 23 assuming PBT of 1.1-1.2 Bn.
I certainly hope that CF prediction doesn't come to pass as any PBT in that region will leave it's mark.

Joxer 22,
what is your read on the SP on say 5/6/7 March (run up to final figs release) and SP following release of final figs.

jb14
just being a bearer of good news !!

jb14,#
passenger numbers up 69% for January. not bad.

Doomster
you are very quiet on the CEO of RR comments on the future of RR. Polar opposite to what you have been preaching.
The stratospheric performances of BIRG and AIB probably mean you are in a DOOMSDAY mind frame. BIRG over 10 yesterday and AIB touching €4= 760% and 500% growth.
Any possibility you might give us a few more of your hot tips.

G Sachs raises Ryanair TP to €21.40.

shares in RR fell4% on friday after CEO warned staff in the Aerospace Group that the Company "was a BURNING PLATFORM"
"The company needs to significantly improve performance as current performance level was unsustainable and faced LAST CHANCE TO CHANGE ". According to a company spokesperson its financial underperformance relative to it's peers was unsustainable.
Doomster recommends this 2 years as as a star of the Firmament along with his slave traders. At the same time he predicts the liquidation of Ryanair, BIRG,AIB.
All I can say he is not short of "NECK" to be posting on any Board.
A total and utter Plonker- with sub zero credibility.The Donkey and himself must come from the same stable.

proving once again that emotion runs your head rather than intelligence. Bottle has absolutely nothing to do with Investment as I proved with my Kingspan purchase. much prefer an investment purchase at 38 rather than a "Bottle " one at 51 ! Likewise if I listened to you you woould have me buying at 50p rather than my purschase at 38p.
I note you are very , very QUIET on the PERFORMANCE of BIRG and AIB.- 2 of your BASKET/LIQUIDATION cases.
As posted already Motley Fool bragging their own praises on Miscrosoft achieving 750% growth in 21 years and BIRG ACHIEVE STRONGER GROWTH IN 2.5 YEARS !!!!! AIB now up on 500% in same time period.
YOUR SILENCE IS DEAFENING .
Any chance you will come out of the closet and confess the TRUTH. INVESTMENT WISE you are A TOTAL DISASTER.
You should also refer to the very recent comments of the CEO of 1 of your steller recommendations - Rolls Royce. !If we do not fundamentally readjust our thinking we are heading for burn out ". Another successful recommendation for your CV.
Putin carries more credibility than yourself.

from Davy research
Total revenue up 57%.
Fares up 14% on pre covid travel.
ancilleries at €22.5 per passenger.
year on year unit costs (ex fuel) = €30 per pass.
Balance Sheet remains the best in it's class. 96% unencumbered aircraft.
nett debt of 0.96bn reduced from 1.45 billion in march 22.
Hedging of 60% at $90bbl and 57% at $92bbl.

Doomster,
any possibility you could be more original

see Ryanair reported today profits of 211 million as against 88 million in their best pre covid period.
Passenger nos 7% higher than pre covid. record passenger nos of 38.4million for October-December 230 new routes.
All is very well in the land of Ryanair and living up to it's above headed Subject Name.

GG,
just keeping close eye on them atm. should they hit 10 in run up to release of final figs in march I would reduce holding to c 20%.above 10 would sell the lot.
Ryanair release steller figs this am and sp down 1%. Glenveagh released very strong trading statement on 5 January and SP dropped over 5%,- although now recovering.
Strange happenings revolve around release of year end figs and imo mkt must be anticipating strong figs in march to justify sp growth of last 6 months. Appreciate that future earnings/profit growth a huge factor in driving sp and mkt building in KBC /Davy future contribution but if KBC expected to be so profitable why did KBC sell out > Banks don't dispose of very profitable businesses.
I'd still be wary of the Ides of March

Doomster,
I am sure you will be delighted to see BIRG trading at €10 and AIB at €4 (4 cents shy) .
Up 757% and 500% respectively from their April 2020 lows , reaching their peak 18 years ahead of the Motley Fool's headline star, Microsoft.
Keeping my fingers crossed that your star performer/recommendation, Boohoo, reaches your publicised projected price of 60p by march ( you never said it to be march 2023 or any year !).
Keep investing on the Moon - you certainly won't lose .

take your correction up with Diarmaid Sheridan and Antonio Duarte of Davy who wrote the article and state their TPs (to 2025) reflect growth rates of 29%/44% and 70% for BIRG/AIB and PTSB respectively.
Until today AIB peak price was 3.73 and applying 44% to this gives a TP of 5.37 rather than 4.51.
Only correct figure appears to be PTSB as applying 70% to SP of €2 gives their TP of €3.40.
Continue today's performance and you might see 13.17 by 7th March !

joxer 22
just read Davy article on Irish Banks and their projections of 29% appreciation for BIRG to 13.17- 44% growth for AIB to 4.51 and 70% for PTSB to 3.40.
I see these are TP s with a difference as their coverage period is for 2022 to 2025. A lot can happen between now and then including,hopefully, end of Ukraine war.
If they are putting a TP of 13.17 on BIRG for 2025 ( over 2 years into wedding down with KBC/Davy ) they are not placing a lot of faith into KBC/Davy making a sizeable contribution to future profits. They appear to be also saying that the jump in ECB rates over last 8 months is temporary.

at 9.54 BIRG Mkt Cap = 10.207Bn ; at 3.76 AIB Mkt Cap = 10.052Bn. Pretty even and this ratio has applied consistently over last 12 months.
At 13.17 BIRG Mkt Cap = 14.09 Bn.. Applying this consistent ratio to AIB would result in Mkt Cap of 13.88 Bn for AIB giving a TP of 5.19 for AIB and this is before you apply any of the historic premium rating of 20% that AIB enjoyed over BIRG pre financial crash which may kick in as Govt stake is reduced/eliminated.
Place your bets

Torquay sorry to read of your loss but good to see you had a good day reminiscing with friends of yore. I agree that I found the London of the 70s a much friendlier town than today. I think the same applies to Dublin as the same craic is not to be found in bars etc.Perhaps age is a contributing factor but " progress" must have ir's price. A GPS now essential to get around Dublin- necessity the mother of invention.

Cantor Fitzgerald issue an updated statement today on BIRG.
"Following an upgrade to NIM guidance in December and subsequent EPS upgrade we have raised our TP to €8.96 from €7.30.
With over 50% growth in last 12 months we consider them fully valued relative to broader european bank sector".

ss
sp often drops when share goes ex div.

Joxer 22,
According to BIRG and AIB Investor relations their respective holdings in February 2007 as follows ;
AIB = 918 million shares @ peak SP of €23.95 per share = 21,986 million Cpitallised value. NAV = 4.42 curr. TNAV = 4.1.
BIRG=978.597mill shares @peak sp of €18.65per share = 18,250 million Capitalised value.NAV = 10.6 curr.
So ,at their peak SP values ,AIB carried a premium rating of 20.47% over BIRG.
Today,AIB's NAV rating above curr SP = 21% whereas BIRG's NAV rating above curr SP =15.8%
Taking their recent SP highs AIB NAV rating is 15.4% whereas BIRG' is 8.9%.