Member Info for JoeyDiamond

Germany and Italy reporting new variants found too. Keep an eye on this spreading as will have big ramifications if it becomes prevelent.

Can see tighter lockdowns and another big hit to economies and major indexes if confirmed.

https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1351480020712230912

Very concerning report - 47 cases of the 501Y.V2 (variant arisen from South Africa) reported in surveillance within the UK. This is the variant with the E484K mutation that has been associated with significant escape from antibodies in the laboratory.

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This is very bad and may require stricter lockdown measures - UK cant let this variant spread.

Zephi there are a number of reasons why. Some clues

Take a look at this thread - 'Immune escape confirmed due to E484 mutation' and understand the possible implications for vaccines.

Also what are leaders and scientists thinking worldwide? Just today there were Kessler video posts who has just said under the Biden administration will implement research into anti viral drugs as they needed.

You have a part answer from your own question.

'Vaccines will be continually adapted to adapt to covid variations over the longer term too.'

How long does it take to design, manufacture and deliver 70 million vaccine sino peoples arms? What do you do in the interim period?

https://www.bing.com/images/search?q=sng001&id=01F76A1E8F29DFBD6F0DEBC8EEA70F748126598A&form=IQFRBA&first=1&disoverlay=1

Synairgen branching out into new merchandise. Maybe a T-shirt or cap will have been a better idea?

News on the South African and Brazil variants.

https://twitter.com/K_G_Andersen/status/1351277414576386048

'This is the problem many of us have been concerned about - immune escape from new SARS-CoV-2 variants in addition to their increased transmission. In this case, in a quick (single?) evolutionary 'jump'. No way to sugar coat it - this is not good news.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ja_tLG8CLAc

39 mins in the 484 mutation explained and why its a problem.

Number of other Profs/Drs shared it
https://twitter.com/devisridhar/status/1351259754497245185?s=21
https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1351228542143651840
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1351282325926146048

I fear lockdowns are here for the long term and not just til spring.

I'm invested here but...

Why do people who want to deramp the price start posts like this. Just weird.

Mad was my worst performing share in my portfolio and now its in profit. Not aware of any news.

Phizers clincial trial data shows 52% after 1 dose at 21 days and likely to wane, hence need of 2nd dose which they strongly advise. AZN vaccine is not as good as Phizers in term sof efficacy so expect their real number to be lower.

Cambridge lab this week sharing some real world data on antibody responses to the Pfizer mRNA vaccine. We tested serum from 23 participants (median age 82) vaccinated with the first dose 3 weeks previously. 7/15 of over 80s in their small analysis failed to neutralize the virus to 50% at day 21.

https://twitter.com/GuptaR_lab/status/1350131633966493702

This is certainly not looking good for the elderly population. Bear in mind this small study was done using the original wild strain of the virus. In near future they will test using the new UK variant which could be very grim reading.

We may find this strategy which ignored manufacturers advice, clinical trial data and a host of experts will be a grave mistake.

https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1351118624350752769/photo/1

An interesting graph showing how long it took to control various infectious diseases with mass vaccination.

https://twitter.com/Jefferson_MFG/status/1350711684768411648

This is the new £158 million Vaccines Manufacturing Innovation Centre, under construction at the Harwell Science & Innovation Campus in Oxfordshire. "We'll be able to make 70million doses within a four to five month period, enough for everyone in the country

OK that sound ominous? Like they planning for a new vaccine every 6 months due to a new strain/variant?

Gupta Lab - Phizer vax in over 80s

https://twitter.com/GuptaR_lab/status/1350131626240598019

1/2 of over 80s tested 21 days after 1 dose of phizer failed to neutralize the original D614G virus (not the new strains). So government strategy of delayed dose could be an issue. Remember Phizer have said its important for 2nd dose at 21 days to properly protect people.

Gupta lab will follow on real word data of over 80's after 2nd dose to see protection and test the new strains.

To be fair Plasma needed investigating due to Trumps claim of a historic break through treatment. This sadly supported by the FDA approving on really really weak data.

In a way Recovery was successful at proving Trump and FDA were talking crap. However needing over 10,000 UK patients to prove it was crap seemed a waste of resource and time. Im sure futility could have been seen from just 5k patients. Resource could have been used on other treatments.

Not exactly a "very historic breakthrough"

This refers to Donald Trump and FDA emergency approval earlier this year on very weak data. Eric is trolling the Trump administration and not Recovery/Horby.

Phase 2 dosing of patients took 9 weeks to complete. So can give you an idea of P3 timings

I suspect reports of the new P.1 Covid variant spreading from Brazil into Argentina may be putting pressure on the SP.

https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1349943613514526723

A good thread on this subject.

Indeed most Western countries exit strategy is herd immunity via vaccine.

Very worrying natural herd immunity theory has failed due to a new variant of the virus appearing. You would think a persons own adaptive immune system that can recognise more than just the spike protein element of the virus could have prevented reinfection.

Questions remain
a) Do people only have short lived immunity? We did see a report yesterday in the UK claiming 5 months immunity.
b) Vaccine herd immunity now unlikely? We are seeing virus escape vs antibodies, Brazil and SA variants have the E484 mutation.
c) These mutations have occurred with very little selection pressure. Bigger pressure we may see more virus escape.
d) Like flu vaccine evidence is pointing to needing a yearly covid vaccine. Moderna have made plans to release an updated vaccine later this year as a booster shot.

For sure this endemic now and like the Moderna CEO said this virus will be with us forever :(

Thats the P2 trial

P3 trial is here - https://www.clinicaltrialsregister.eu/ctr-search/trial/2020-004743-83/GB

Hi DPC1825/Dumbpunter

I am happy to correct you for being wrong on the COPD primary end points assumption.

Primary Outcome Measures from COPD trail are

* Forced Expiratory Volume in 1 second (FEV1) [ Time Frame: from Baseline (pre-treatment on day 1) to day 3 ]
* Peak Expiratory Flow Rate (PEFR) [ Time Frame: from Baseline (pre-treatment on day 1) to day 3 ]
* Anti-viral IFN-stimulated genes in cells from expectorated sputum. [ Time Frame: from Baseline (pre-treatment on day 1) to day 13 ]
* CXCL10 in blood samples. [ Time Frame: from Baseline (pre-treatment on day 1) to day 13 ]

Trial design here https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03570359

Bear in mind the trial has been paused so full results not available. However from https://www.synairgen.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/200908-SG015-Press-Release-Final.pdf you would conclude the primary end points appear to be looking successful and have promise.

The BCSS score you mention is 1 of 28 secondary endpoints in the trial. There was actually a benefit here due to the breathlessness part. I also note you cut out much of the full quote. Here is the full quote.

'Although there was no significant difference in total BCSS in this group over the treatment period, there was a trend for the breathlessness component of the score, suggesting that patients may have recovered more rapidly if they received SNG001 rather than placebo.'

So overall as you can from early data set there looked to be promising data for COPD and not the picture you both paint.